the status of noaa/nesdis precipitation algorithms and...

17-21 November 2014 7th IPWG - Tsukuba, Japan 1

The Status of NOAA/NESDIS Precipitation Algorithms and

Products Ralph Ferraro

NOAA/NESDIS College Park, MD USA

Limin Zhao, Sid Boukabara, Tanvir Islam, Stan Kidder, Bob Kuligowski, Huan

Meng, Patrick Meyers, Isaac Moradi, Brian Nelson, Scott Rudlosky, Tom Smith, JJ Wang, Nai-Yu Wang, Yalei You, Jerry Zhan

(and some others that I have unintentionally left off…)


Outline • Satellite Status • Operational products

– GOES-based products – POES-based products

• Including non-NOAA satellites

– Blended products

• Other activities – Climate Products/Data Records – New Algorithms and Approaches – Future “Enterprise” Product Systems at NOAA

• Summary

17-21 November 2014 7th IPWG - Tsukuba, Japan

February 2017?

GMI#2/Windsat 2018?


January 2016

NESDIS Operational Products of Interest

Algo Products Satellites/Sensors Res Type Formats MSPPS Rainfall rate, Snowfall

rate, TPW, CLW, Snow Cover, Sea Ice, etc

NOAA-18&NOAA-19&Metop-A & Metop-B /AMSU-A&MHS

16 km Level-2, Level-3

HDF-EOS, McIDAS area, PNG

MiRS Rainfall rate, TPW, CLW, Snow Cover, Sea Ice, etc

NOAA-18 & NOAA-19 & Metop-A & Metop-B /AMSU-A&MHS; DMSP F17&F18/SSMIS, NPP/ATMS, M-T/SAPHIR, GPM/GMI

Varies (Lo and Hi Res)

Level-2, Level-3

HDF-EOS,netCDF4, McIDAS area, PNGs

GHE Rainfall rate, multi-hours and multi-days rainfall total

GOES-E & GOES-W & MTSAT & Meteosat-7 & Meteosat-10 IR Imager

4 km Level-3 netCDF4, McIDAS area, GRIB1/GRIB2, GIFs

bTPW Global Total Precipitable Water Map

NOAA-18, NOAA-19, Metop-A and Metop-B /AMSU-A&MHS, GOES-W/-E, GPS-Met, DMSP F17&F18/SSMIS, NPP/ATMS, GPM/GMI, GCOM AMSR-2

16 km Level-4 HDF-EOS, McIDAS area, AWIPS, PNGs

bRR Global Rainfall Rate Map

NOAA-18, NOAA-19, Metop-A and Metop-B /AMSU-A&MHS, DMSP 17&F18/SSMIS, NPP/ATMS, GPM/GMI, GCOM-AMSR-2

16 km Level-4 HDF-EOS, McIDAS area, AWIPS, PNGs

eTRAP Prob-matched QPF, Probability

NOAA-18, NOAA-19, Metop-A and Metop-B /AMSU-A&MHS, GOES-W/-E, DMSP F17, F18/SSMIS, NPP/ATMS, GPM/GMI, GCOM-AMSR-2

4 km Level-3 ASCII, McIDAS area, GIFs

MSPPS – Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System MiRS – Microwave Integration Retrieval System

GHE – Global HydroEstimator bTPW – Blended Total Precipitable Water

bRR – Blended Rain Rate eTRAP - Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)


Courtesy of Limin Zhao

Upcoming New Satellite Capabilities

Satellites/Sensors

Algorithm Products Planned Schedule

GCOM-W1/AMSR-2

GPDS/GPROF2010V2

Rainfall Rate, TPW, CLW, Snow Cover, Sea Ice, Soil Moisture, etc

Experimental now; full operational Jan 2015

M-T/SAPHIR MiRS Rainfall Rate, TPW Imminent

GPM/GMI GPROF/MiRS Rainfall Rate, TPW, etc. Dec 2014; Feb 2016

GOES-R/ABI (GLM)

SCaMPR Probability of Rainfall, Rainfall Potential, QPE

Jan ~ Mar 2017


MiRS – Microwave Integration Retrieval System GPROF – Goddard Profiling Algorithm

GPDS - GCOM-W Processing and Distribution System SCaMPR - Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval

Courtesy of Limin Zhao


POES-based L2 and L3 products • MSPPS

– Heritage AMSU algorithms • Snowfall rates over land

– N18, N19, MOA, MOB – Other EDR’s like TPW, CLW, etc. – Retirement in 2015

• MIRS – 1DVAR scheme

• T, RH, hydrometeor profiles, TPW, CLW, emissivity, etc.

• SFR merger (MSPPS retirement – Portable to variety of sensors – N18, N19, MOA, MOB, S-NPP, M-T

• GPDS – GCOM AMSR-2 – GPROF2010V2 for rain rates

• Heritage NASA (Bayesian) approach • V2 uses climatological screens

– Other EDR’s like TPW, CLW, etc.

MSPPS Rain Rate MSPPS TPW Courtesy of L. Zhao, H. Meng, X. Zhan, P. Meyers

MIRS Rain Rate MIRS WV Profiles

GCOM Composite

Super-Typhoon Haiyan – GCOM/AMSR-2

9

Courtesy of P. Meyers


• An ATMS snowfall rate (SFR) algorithm has been developed building on the operational MHS SFR algorithm

• The snowfall detection (SD) component utilizes a new and more advanced algorithm

• The snowfall rate component is an improved physical model from the MHS SFR algorithm

• A new cold climate extension was developed recently which drastically increases the retrieval areas under cold conditions

• Validation of ATMS SFR shows that it has comparable or better performance than MHS SFR

• The CMORPH team has shown that adding ATMS SFR to MHS SFR enhances the performance of CMORPH Snow.

• NASA SPoRT is leading an ATMS/MHS SFR assessment project for this coming winter. Several NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will participate, including Alaska.

ATMS Snowfall Rate Product

W/ Cold Extension

No Cold Extension

Radar Reflectivity

16 17-21 November 2014 7th IPWG - Tsukuba, Japan

Courtesy of H. Meng


GOES-based Short-Term Rainfall Products • Current:

– Hydro-Estimator • IR-only plus adjustments using NWP

model data • Operational over CONUS; global

experimentally – Experimental SCaMPR

• Multi-spectral IR calibrated against MW

• Currently CONUS-only • GOES-R (2016+) Era:

– Rainfall Rate • Modification of SCaMPR with

additional spectral bands – 0-3 h Rainfall Potential

• Extrapolation-based nowcast – 0-3 h Probability of Rainfall

• Conditional probabilities based on rainfall nowcasts

Hydro-Estimator

SCaMPR

Rainfall Rate

Rainfall Potential Rainfall

Probability

Courtesy of R. Kuligowski


Other Non-NOAA Satellite Related Products • DMSP SSMI/SSMIS

– Legacy EDR’s developed at NESDIS

– Improved legacy algorithm developed and delivered to NRL…

• TRMM TMI – TRMM V7 2A12 (Land)

• AMSR-E – GPROF2010V2

• GPM GPM – Contributed to GMI pre-

launch over land – Developing new methods

for possible use by GPM

Courtesy of N-Y. Wang, P. Meyers, D. Vila

Megha-Tropiques Recent Results (Rain - T. Islam, CIRA; TPW – I .Moradi, CICS)


MiRS SAPHIR only TPW (Ocean – L, C; Land – R)

Blended TPW (bTPW) Product http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/index.html

• bTPW algorithm – Kidder and Jones, 2007

– Histogram matching to common reference

• The bTPW product combines all available data sources into a “seamless” product for use by the NWS forecaster in AWIPS format

– Ocean – Satellite MW – Land – Satellite MW and GOES Sounder;

GPS Met • Most flooding events can be linked

to “atmospheric rivers” – high TPW that focus on a given location for extended period

– Connection from (sub)tropics to mid and high latitudes

• Product is useful to weather forecasters

– Timing & magnitude of moisture “surges” (NWP models might miss)

• Companion TPW Anomaly (from climatology) Product

14 Provided by S. Kussleson, NESDIS/SAB

Blended TPW 21 UTC

1 May 2010

18 November 2014 IPWG Training Workshop 15 Provided by S. Kussleson, NOAA/NESDIS/SAB

18 November 2014 IPWG Training Workshop 16 Provided by S. Kussleson, NOAA/NESDIS/SAB


Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) • Forecast of 24-hour rainfall

potential for tropical systems about to make landfall.

• Based on extrapolation of microwave-derived rainfall rates along predicted storm track.

• Ensembles improve deterministic forecasts and provide uncertainty information

• Additional ensemble members (SSMIS, HE) plus orographic, shear, storm rotation adjustments planned

• Produced worldwide and available via the Internet: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html

QPFEM P≥50 mm QPFPM

P≥100 mm P≥150 mm P≥200 mm

18 UTC / 23 - 00 UTC / 24

00 – 06 UTC / 24

06 – 12 UTC / 24

12 – 18 UTC / 24

Courtesy of R. Kuligowski and E. Ebert

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html

18 November 2014 IPWG Training Workshop 18

Typhoon Halong – Landfall 9 Aug 14

Storm Track 24-hr rain

Estimate 0600 UTC

Probability Of 100 mm Or more


Climate Products

• SSM/I – Legacy products for GPCP – Now generated by NCDC for

SSMIS

• NOAA/NCDC CDR program – SSMI FCDR’s (CSU lead) – AMSU FCDR’s & TCDR’s

(NESDIS)

Courtesy of Brian Nelson, Hilawe Semunegus, Huan Meng

18 November 2014 IPWG Training Workshop

SSMI Climate Time Series

• Monthly mean products derived from SSM/I since July 1987: – Precipitation rate and frequency – Snow cover frequency – Sea-ice concentration – Oceanic total precipitable water – Oceanic cloud liquid water and

frequency – Ocean surface wind speed

• Products are now generated and archived at NOAA/NCDC

• Used by NCEP/CPC, JMA, GEWEX/GPCP

New Ideas for GPROF2014/Sounders

• Supported by NESDIS contribution to NASA PMM Team ActivitiesYou, R. Ferraro

• Working with C. Kidd/C. Kummerow

• Based on NMQ matchups with SSMIS and ATMS

• Key questions: – How best to stratify

databases over land? • Ancillary data use

– How many view angle categories needed?


NMQ ATMS

21

Courtesy of Y. You and N-Y. Wang

Minute Lightning Density with 2 Long-track Tornados

DCLMA Applications – Showing the potential synergy from GOES-R ABI & GLM, and GCOM AMSR2

Lightning Flashes Each Second Overlaid on AMSR2 Precipitation

Patrick Meyers Univ. of MD/CICS

22

Precipitation Enterprise Concept (NOAA/NESDIS GEARS)

23 17-21 November 2014 7th IP

GPM(DPR&GMI)

NOAA-POES(AMSU&MHS)

Suomi NPP/JPSS(ATMS)

GCOM-W(AMSR-2)

MetOP(AMSU&MHS)MEGHA TR.(MADRAS)

DMSP(SSMIS)

GOES-R(ABI & GLM)

NOAA GPM PPS(OSPO/NESDIS)

GAUGE WSR-88D

Multi-sensor PrecipitationAlgorithms

MPE, CMORPH & MRMS(GAUGE+WSR-88D

+ GOES)

Rai

nR

ate

NWS/RFC/WFONWS/Centers

DoDNESDIS/STAR/

SAB/CLASSJCSDA

OAR/Testbeds

NOAA Enterprise Precipitation Processing System : Phase III

Legend

Sensor or satellite

Processor

End User

L1b

L1b

L1b

L1b

L1b

L1b

L1b

PPS Products (L1-c & Rain Rate)

L1bNUP Gen. & SCaMPR NUPsLE

O M

ICR

OW

AVE

LEO

MIC

RO

WAV

EG

EO

IR &

Lig

ht. R

ainR

ate

Courtesy of C. Kondragunta


Summary and Future • NOAA/NESDIS generates several operational precipitation products

– GOES-based – POES-based, including JPSS – Blended products

• NOAA also actively involved in other missions – DMSP – NASA – TRMM, AMSR-E, GPM – JAXA – AMSR-2 – CNES/ISRO – M-T

• NOAA has maturing Climate Data Record Program – Synergy with SCOPE-CM

• Future – GOES-R (ABI, GLM) – JPSS (ATMS, VIIRS, etc.) – Enterprise solution to products – blended products becoming a requirement – Maturing CDR’s and role with stakeholders

the status of noaa/nesdis precipitation algorithms and...

Documents