the status and future of the natural gas vehicle market 2013 aapg annual convention & exhibition...
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The Status and Future of the Natural Gas Vehicle Market
2013 AAPG Annual Convention & Exhibition
May 21, 2013
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Notable NGV GrowthCountry NGVs 2003 NGVs 2012 Stations '03 Stations ‘13
Iran * 3,300,000 * 2000
Pakistan 350,000 2,790,000 200 3,000
Argentina 1,000,000 2,193,000 1,000 1,900
Brazil 550,000 1,733,000 535 1,800
India 137,000 1,500,000 116 700
China 69,300 1,500,000 270 2800
Italy 400,000 746,000 490 909
Thailand * 422,000 * 481
Ukraine * 388,000 * 324
Global Total 2,814,438 17,105,000 6,455 22,100
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International Vehicle Availability
• Every major car manufacturer is making natural gas vehicles for some market somewhere:– GM/Opel Chevrolet Ford Mercedes– Volkswagen Fiat Citroen Hyundai– Renault Peugeot Tata Mitsubishi– Toyota Honda Nissan Isuzu– Skoda Volvo Geely Lifan
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Independent Forecasts
• Frost & Sullivan:–By 2017: 8% of Class 6-8 truck market
– In 2017: Almost 30,000 trucks purchased
• PIRA Consulting:–By 2030: 5.1 Tcf gas used in vehicles per year
–Equal to 24% of today’s on-road energy use
(continued)
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Independent Forecasts• National Petroleum Council (NPC) study:
–Under “aggressive” (high oil price case), NPC’s scenario shows, by 2050, NGV capturing:• 50 percent of LD market
• Upwards of 35 percent of the class 3-6 truck market
• Almost 50 percent of the class 7-8 truck market by 2050
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Energy Use in On-Road Transportation
• Total energy usage: 21.97 quads or Tcf (2010):– Light-duty: 16.7– Heavy-duty freight: 4.41– Commercial light trucks: 0.59– Buses: 0.27
• About 25% of total is diesel
5.27 Tcf
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2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Natural Gas Usage
Natural Gas Usage
Year
Bcf
45 Bcf
3.5 Tcf
1.25 Tcf
Achievable NGV Gas Usage and Vehicle Growth
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• We Have the Fuel – And It’s Ours• Substantial Air Quality: Urban Pollution• Substantial Air Quality: GHGs• Biomethane Makes GHG Case Stronger• Only Natural Gas Can Displace Diesel• NGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology• Government Policymakers are Recognizing the Value of
NGVs• Money!!
Why the NGV Market Will Grow
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Shale Basins and the U.S. Pipeline Grid
Source: American Clean Skies Foundation.
• 98+% from North America
• Well-developed distribution infra-structure;• ~300K miles of interstate pipeline• 1.2 million miles of LDC distribution lines
• Technology improvements expand recoverable base. Shale gas is major player
• Supply is now estimated @ 115+ years!
We Have the Fuel – and It’s Ours!
PGC Resource Assessments, 1990-2010
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Substantial Air Quality Benefits• NGVs produce less criteria pollutants than gasoline
and diesel vehicles (NOx, CO, VOCs, PM)• NGVs produce less greenhouse gases (GHG):
– 22% less than diesel vehicles– 29% less than gasoline vehicles– These are well-to-wheels numbers developed for CARB:
• Includes methane
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Only Natural Gas Can Displace Diesel
• Many options for LD vehicles:– e.g., natural gas, ethanol, electricity, plug-hybrids
• Only two available options for HD diesel trucks and buses: biodiesel and natural gas
• Biodiesel is limited and has small diesel displacement benefits
• That leaves natural gas as only option
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NGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology
(continued)
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Fueling Infrastructure
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CNG Infrastructure Strategy
• Bottom up (organic growth) strategy
• Focus on local, high fuel-use fleets:–Return-to-home vehicles
–Point-to-point vehicles
• Adding 20-25 stations per month
(continued)
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CNG Infrastructure StrategyStep 1:Serve local/regional fleets within hub. Build confidence for consumer adoption.
Step 2:Serve spokes that connect the hubs
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What Has Worked:Urban & Return-to-Base Commercial Fleets
Mumbai Vancouver
Los AngelesLas Vegas
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Key Attributes and Best Prospects
• High fuel use vehicles with return-to-base operations or repetitive route or pre-set geographic operating areas
Regional freight truck – 16-20K GGE Transit buses – 12.5-15K GGERefuse /Concrete Trucks-– 7.5-10K GGEMunicipal sweeper – 5-6K GGEAirport shuttle service – 5.5-7.5K GGETaxi - 4.5-5.5K GGEF&B, Textile Svcs, Household Goods – 3-5K GGESchool Bus – 2-3K GGE
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LNG Infrastructure Strategy
• Primary focus: Over-the-road trucks • Started with bottom up strategy but now
shifting to national, top down strategy• Clean Energy:
• 150 LNG stations at Pilot/Flying J truck stops by end of 2013
• Shell:– 100 LNG stations at Travel Centers
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LNG Infrastructure Corridors (Dec. 2012 Projected)
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UPS• Largest private fleet in USA
– environment, energy security concerns
• 48 new Kenworth trucks with Westport HD 15L – Operating between Los Angeles,
Las Vegas and Salt Lake City DCs• 688 mile (1107 km) corridor with 3
fuel stations
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Government Policymakers are Recognizing the Value of NGVs
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Federal: NGV Incentives Legislation• The “New Alternative Transportation to Give
Americans Solutions” (NAT GAS) Act introduced in the House and the Senate (HR 1380; S. 1839)
• For five years would:– Extend 50 cent per GGE fuel credit– Expand infrastructure credit to 50% or $100,000– Implement a vehicle purchase credit:
• From $7,500-$64,000 depending on weight of vehicle
• House: 181 bipartisan co-sponsors
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Federal: Administration Support
• On January 26th, President Obama unveiled his “Blueprint to Make The Most of America’s Energy Resources”
• Four sections:– Two on increasing natural gas supply– Two on increasing use of NGVs
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State NGV MOU• 14 states have signed MOU in support of NGVs:
– Begun with 4 states in November 2011• Purpose:
– To urge OEMs to manufacturer light- and light-medium-duty NGVs
– To commit to phasing NGVs into state fleets– To possibly reach out to municipalities to phase in NGVs
• Letter sent by 21 states to 19 OEMs requesting NGV information
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Refuse Truck Economics• Crane Carrier LET, Autocar Xpeditor, Peterbilt
LCF 320 , Condor , Mack TerraPro • MPG: 2.5 – 3.0 (lots of idle and PTO time)• Fuel Use:
– 35-40 GGE/day – 8500-10,000 DGE/yr
• CNG/LNG Premium: $32,000• Simple Payback: 2.1-2.5 years
(based on 1.50 savings /DGE )
• Life-cycle cost savings: $80 - $87K+ (based on 8-year life)
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• We Have the Fuel – And It’s Ours• Substantial Air Quality: Urban Pollution• Substantial Air Quality: GHGs• Biomethane Makes GHG Case Stronger• Only Natural Gas Can Displace Diesel• NGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology• Government Policymakers are Recognizing the Value of
NGVs• Money!!
Why the NGV Market Will Grow
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Exploring New Market Opportunities
mine haul trucks
industrial locomotivestugboats