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TRANSCRIPT
The State of the Mining Industry
Tim Williams
With apologies and thanks to SP Angel, Reuters, Bloomberg and many others
The Image of Miningg g
8000
World Population (millions)
7000
5000
6000
4000
2000
3000
1000
0
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
World GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
80000
A measure of global wealth$bn
60000
70000
40000
50000
20000
30000
0
10000
Source: World Bank
World GDP per person
GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
World 8,257 8,557 8,832 9,174 9,541 9,669 9,487 9,848 10,102 10,282
Source: Bloomberg
Standard & Poor S&P 500 Index
Source: Bloomberg
Mining Industry Characteristics: Structural
• Hazardous ‐ safety• Primary industry • Energy intensive
bil• Immobile• Wasting assets – ore depletion• Environmental impact• Environmental impact• Remote locations• Infrastructure dependentp• Water• Skilled labour
The goose that lays the golden eggs?
The State of the Mining IndustryThe State of the Mining Industry• Good!
– World population is steadily growing– China is industrialising– Global per capita GDP is increasing– Global per capita GDP is increasing– The mining industry is generously providing for the needs of the worldMining generates great benefits for the producing– Mining generates great benefits for the producing countries and their people
– Long term projections of most commodities predict better pricesprices
– Producing mining companies are (mostly) doing well– The current slight problems are only cyclical features
The State of the Mining IndustryThe State of the Mining Industry• Bad!
– Stock markets have lost confidence in the industryy– Investors are fed up with the inefficiencies of the “junior” exploration companies:high overheads with low quality projectshigh overheads with low quality projects
– Investors are angry at the waste of money by the “major” mining companies :terrible acquisitions and overproductionterrible acquisitions, and overproduction
– Credit squeeze is hitting new mining very hard– Exploration model has collapsed:
“f d d ll” b h b !“find and sell” – but there are no buyers!– The “gold mining premium” has disappeared– But cheer up it could be worse: “It’s looking better”p g
Mining bad, mineral exploration worse
Mineral projects are looking bad
Mineral Exploration is very, very depressedp y y p
Mining Industry Characteristics: Financialg y– Capital intensive: access to sufficient capital– Very long lead times
d ’ k l• Discount rates don’t seem to work properly– Price‐takers not price‐makers (mostly): some can be hedged out– Highly cyclical supply/demand balances
• Normal business cycle• Normal business cycle• Mining manias/despairs
– Price risks from• substitution• recycling• thrifting
– Cost risks from• Depletion• Input costs – labour, energy, steel, equipment
– Price and market risks due to technological advancesR ti li– Resource nationalism
Structure of the industryy
• “Majors” – Big diversified mining companies– Commodity specific mining companies
• Mid‐Tier producers • Developersp
– Typically single project• Exploration
– Listed “Juniors”Listed Juniors » TSX‐V Toronto Venture Exchange» ASX Australian Stock Exchange» AIM London Stock Exchangeg» JSE Johannesburg Stock Exchange
– Private companies – Private capital
Copperpp
World copper production since 1900
Copper price ‐ long term.pp p g
700
500
600
300
400
USc/lb
100
200
0
18
Nominal Real Price
GOLDGOLD
Gold Price 1920‐2013Gold Price 1920 2013
Source: Bloomberg
Gold price up: gold grade downp p g g
Not much new gold being discoveredg g
So what does it all mean…#1So what does it all mean…#1
• Parkinson’s Law:Work expands to fill the time available– Work expands to fill the time available.
• Tim’s Law:– Mining costs expand to fill the revenue available.
So what does it all mean…#2So what does it all mean…#2
• Warren Buffet:– When the tide goes out we find out who has beenWhen the tide goes out we find out who has been swimming naked.
• Tim:h h l i f ll fi d h h– When the metal price falls we find out who has
been mining the market.
Free Advice: How to get zero mine taxFree Advice: How to get zero mine tax
1 S i i 0%• 1. Set mining tax at 0%
• 2. Set mining tax at 100%
B tt t fi d th i ht l l?Better to find the right level?
How to encourage a mining industry(full disclosure: by an interested party )
• Have a clear and fair mining code and obey itcode and obey it
• Look after that goose
•• Don’t tax exploration!Don’t tax exploration!Don t tax exploration!Don t tax exploration!
Thank you