the state of radio, newspapers & · pdf filep2+ monthly time spent with am/fm radio (hrs:...
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The State of Radio, Newspapers & Magazines
An In-Depth Look at How “Traditional” Media Compares to Television
State of Media Summary
State of Radio• Radio’s audience shrinks – all daypart cumes down, especially early morning (-9%) • Time spent on radio declines – down 1 hour (P2+)• Top online radio sites are trending down; Computer online is down double digits • Radio’s ad spending slows – projected to grow 1% next year• Time spent with TV is 2X the time spent with radio• TV’s reach surpasses Radio’s by far across all demos in primetime
State of Newspaper• Newspaper circulation projected to decline – down 9% by 2018• Ad revenue down; online ad revenue is not covering print ad losses• Readership is down across all ethnicities• TV triumphs Newspapers in time spent by 15X• TV viewers spend significantly more on products/services than newspaper readers
State of Magazine• Number of magazine brands remains stagnant• Ad spending projected to plateau• TV triumphs magazine time spent by 19X
Radio’s Audience Continues To Shrink -All Daypart Cumes Are Down
Source: Radio Cumes: MRI Doublebase 2015 vs 2004
-9%
-5%
-4%
-9%-5% -4%
-3%
-6%
6AM-10AM 10AM-3PM 3PM-7PM 7PM-12AM 12AM-6AM
% Change In Cume Adults 18+ by Daypart (Weekday)
(2015 v. 2014)
Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report; 3Q15
Overall, Time Spent With Radio Is On
the Decline
3Q14 3Q15 (+/-)
Composite P2+ 58:53 57:53 -1:00
Black P2+ 61:03 59:37 -1:26
Hispanic P2+ 58:10 57:01 -1:09
P2+ Monthly Time Spent With AM/FM Radio (Hrs: Mins)
28
Daily time spent listening to the radio per capita (in minutes)
Source: ZenithOptimedia; Nielsen; P2+
135.7130.6
125.5120.5
115.4112.2
109105.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017*
…and Radio’s Listernship Is Projected To
Dwindle Even More
Are Viewers Migrating To Online Radio? Online
Desktop Radio is Struggling – Especially Among The
Young
Source: comScore: Radio category ; Desktop Only(defined group in ComScore… includes Pandora, iHeartRadio, TuneIn, Spotify etc..)
-16% -16%
-18%-17% -17% -17%
-16%
-21%
-13%
P2+ P13-24 P18-34 P18-49 P25-54 M13-24 F13-24 M18-49 F18-49
% Change in Online Radio
Total Unique Visitors (Nov ‘15 vs Nov ‘14)
Source: ComScore, Avg. Min per Visitor for Ranked Online Radio sites; Desktop only
Average Minutes Spent Per Visitor
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Jul-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015
Pandora TuneIn iHeart Radio Slacker.com
Pandora, Top Online Radio Source Is in Decline
Advertising 36
Radio Advertising Spending (in billion)
Source: PwC
16.05 16.32 16.48 16.74 17.18 17.43 17.66 17.84 18.01 18.14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*
Overall, Radio’s Ad Spending Slows –
Projected To Increase Only 1% Over The Next Year
Weekly Time Spent In Hours: Min
Source: Nielsen Cross Platform; 3Q15
Time Spent With TV Dominates Radio; 2X The
Time Among Young Adults
P2+ P18+ T12-17 A18-24 A25-34 A35-49 A50-64 A65+
RADIO 12:09 12:41 6:54 9:53 11:17 13:24 14:51 12:00
TV 29:26 32:02 17:00 15:30 21:10 28:41 39:21 47:33
23
In Primetime, TV’s Reach Surpasses Radio
By Far
Source: Nielsen Audio; Radio Advertising Bureau; TV Reach=Npower 6/15
56% 55% 56%62% 62% 61% 61% 58%
46%40%
93% 91% 93%
81%86%
90% 93% 95% 97% 97%
12+ 12-17 18+ 18-24 18-34 18-49 25-54 35-64 55+ 65+
Reach % in Primetime
Radio TV
TV Is Top Choice For Breaking News
“Among the Internet, Newspapers, Radio and Television, which one do
you turn to first in the event of a major news story?” 201550%
40%
6%3%
Television Internet Radio Newspaper
Source: Edison Research; Base: Total Population, 12+;2015
32
Source: 2015 GFK MRI Database
…and TV Is Paramount For Keeping Consumers
Up To Date & Entertained
30%
44% 43%
51%
57%
83%
64% 63%
Good source of learning Pure entertainment Keeps me informed/up todate
Relaxes me
Radio TV
Source: SNL Kagan Media Trends
Newspaper Circulation Projected To Drop;
Down 9% by 2018
Newspaper Circulation
(in Millions)
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
43.4
42.1
40.9
39.7
38.5
Year
Total Daily Ad Revenue (Print/Online)
(in Millions)
Source: SNL Kagan Media Trends
Print & Online Newspaper Ad Revenue
Projected to Decline 4% in Next Two Years
2,851
2,778
2,721
2,677
3,706
3,582
3,474
3,380
$8,470
$9,070
$8,731
$8,268
2015
2016
2017
2018
Retail ad revenue National ad revenue
Classified ad revenue
Ad Revenue By Sector
(in Millions)
All Main
Sectors Down
2015 $19,161
2016 $18,688
2017 $18,330
2018 $18,062
Source SNL Kagan; total print+online
-8.6%
-5.5%
-4.4%
-3.4% -2.8%
1.5%
1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Print Online
Online Revenue Growth Not Covering
Print Ad Losses
For Every Digital Ad Dollar Gained,
15 Print Ads Lost
% Growth/Loss
Share of consumers who read daily newspapers
Source: Pew Research Center; Nielsen Scarborough; percentage nationally who read any daily newspaper the day before
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
White African American Asian Hispanic Other
Newspaper Readership Steady Decline
Persists - Among All Ethnicities
Source: ZenithOptimedia; Various sources (Media Dynamics);* Forecasts
24
21
17
14
2011 2013 2015* 2017*
Time Spent Reading Newspaper Per Capita Daily
(In Minutes)
…and Time Spent With Newspapers Is
Projected To Drop 18% By 2017
Online Newspaper Readership Is Down
Across The Board
% Change in Online Newspaper Category: 11/15 v. YAG
Source: comScore desktop only; 11/15 v. 11/14
% Change in Unique Visitors A18+
11/15 v. YAG
The New York Times -17%
Washingtonpost.com -40%
Mail Online/Daily Mail -13%
Hearst Newspapers -11%
The Guardian +18%
Top Online Newspaper Brands
Unique Visitors
A18+ -6%
A18-49 -8%
A18-34 -7%
A18-24 -2%
A25-54 -8%
A50+ -5%
31
Daily time spent with Newspaper v. TV in Oct’15
(in minutes)
Source: eMarketer; U.S. Oct 2015, A18+
TV Triumphs Newspapers in Time Spent by 15X
TV,
251 min
Newspaper,
17 min
TV Branded News Networks Provide The Latest Breaking
News Around The Clock – Online & Offline
Top 5 Online General News Category
A18+ A18-49 A18-24 A25-54
ABC News CNN Buzzfeed ABC News
CNN ABC News CNN CNN
NBC News NBC News CBS News NBC News
CBS News CBS News NBC News CBS News
USA Today USA Today CBS News USA Today
Source: VAB analysis of multi-platform comScore data, November 2015
…and Ranking in the Top 5 General
News Category Online
…and Out of 1 Million + iPAD Apps, Ad-Supported
TV Brands are Among the Top 5 Downloaded
From Over 1,000,000 Apps:
Top 5 iPad Apps Downloaded For News
1. FOX News
2. BBC News
3. CNN App for iPhone
4. Google News and Weather
5. Flipboard
Source: Apple app store 9/18/15; Most popular iPAD apps by category search term (excluding gaming apps)
For Breaking News, TV Is Top Choice
“Among the Internet, Newspapers, Radio and Television, which one do
you turn to first in the event of a major news story?” 201550%
40%
6%3%
Television Internet Radio Newspaper
Source: Edison Research; Base: Total Population, 12+;2015
In General, Newspapers Only Have a Modest Push On Consumer’s Action
Source: MRI Doublebase 2015
Shopped At Advertised Store
20%
Purchased Advertised
Product
17%
Requested Add. Info on Product
14%
Cut Ad Out For Later
2%
Action Taken As A Result of Reading Newspaper/Last Month: A18+
% Of Weekday Newspaper Sections Read
A18+ A18-24 A18-49
Main news/Front page 42 22 28
Local News 41 20 27
Weather 24 12 15
International/National News 23 8 12
Sports 22 13 15
Entertainment/Lifestyle 18 8 11
Comics 17 11 10
Editorial Page 17 4 6
Food/Cooking 17 6 9
Circulars/Inserts/Fliers 16 3 9
Health 16 5 8
Classified Advertising 14 8 11
Business/Finance 13 4 7
Advertisements 12 4 7
Movie Listings & Reviews 12 6 8
TV Listings 11 5 5
Home/Furnishings/Gardening 10 3 5
Science & Technology 9 5 5
Travel 9 3 5
Fashion 7 4 4
…and Few Consumers Read Beyond The Front
Page - Especially A18-24
Source: MRI Doublebase 2015
Targeting Millennials? Newspapers Under-Delivers;
TV Has Practically 2x As Many
Source: MRI Doublebase 2015
A18-246% A25-34
9%
A35-4919%
A50+66%
Newspaper Reader Television Viewer
A18-2411%
A25-3417%
A35-4926%
A50+46%
6 out of 10 readers
Are over 50+
A18-34
15% A18-34
28%
32
Source: 2015 GFK MRI Database
…and TV Is Top For Entertainment and
Keeping Consumers Informed
54%
10%
52%
10%
57%
83%
64% 63%
Good source of learning Pure entertainment Keeps me informed/up todate
Relaxes me
Newspapers TV
% of A18+
Source: MRI Doublebase 2015; index to gen pop
In General, TV Viewers Spend More Money On
Products/Services
TV Viewer Newspaper Reader
Index Index
Spent Last Year -Marine/Boating Attire $150+ 105 82
Women's Spent Last Year-Cloth Coat $250+ 104 96
Shoes Spent Past Year-Basketball Shoes $75+ 103 97
Men's Designer Jeans Past Year $100+ 102 97
Cologne for Men Spent Past Year as a Gift $250+ 101 97
Most Recent Vehicle Purchase/Lease $50,000+ 101 99
Gasoline Spent Last Month $200+ 101 96
# of Magazine Launches
Slowdown of Magazine Launches
60
190
185
227
239
193
275
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Source: number of magazines=MPA; Magazine Launches=Oxbridge Communications
5,340
6,234
7,188
6,325
6,734 6,809
7,3837,110 7,163 7,179
7,3907,240 7,289
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Number of Magazine Brands Has Remained
Stagnant Number of magazines
Magazine Advertising Spending (in billions)
Source: eMarketer
15.13 15.09 15.05 15.1 15.15 15.23
3.523.77 3.96 4.08 4.21 4.34
2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*
Print Digital
Magazine Ad Spending Projected To Plateau
Daily time spent reading magazines per capita (in minutes)
Source: ZenithOptimedia; Various sources (Media Dynamics);
24.723.6
22.521.3
19.618.6
17.616.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017*
Tim
e in
min
utes
Consumers Are Spending Less Time With
Magazines
Average annual expenditure per consumer unit (in U.S. dollars)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
46.03
39.90 39.6
34.1
14.45
12.6310.88
8.08
2008 2010 2012 2014
Newspaper, magazine by subscription Newspaper, magazine non-subscription
…and Spending Less Money On The
Publications
Top Online Magazines Erode – Down Double
Digits
Online Magazine Total Unique Viewers (000)
Taste of Home -18%
Southern Living -11%
Reader’s Digest -19%
Woman’s Day -18%
National Geographic -9%
Family Circle -28%
A18+ Nov 2015 vs Nov 2014
Source: November 2015 v 14, ComScore % Change Media Trend
Daily time spent with Magazine v. TV in Oct’15
(in minutes)
Source: eMarketer; U.S. Oct 2015, A18+
Comparing To TV - TV Triumphs Magazine In
Time Spent by 19X
251
13
TV Magazines
32
Source: 2015 GFK MRI Database
Overall, TV Is Top For Entertainment and
Keeping Consumers Informed
54%
32%
24% 26%
57%
83%
64% 63%
Good source of learning Pure entertainment Keeps me informed/up todate
Relaxes me
Magazines TV
% of A18+
32:02
12:41
8:196:00
1:28 1:11 0:54 0:21
Time Spent Per Week (Hrs:Min) Among P18+
Source: Nielsen Total Audience report 3Q15; Print=
newspaper+magazines emarketer, 4/15
Television Captures More Than Half of Consumers
Total Media Time In An Average Week
Television’s Reach Remains Undeniable Across
The Board
98.8 98.9 98.6 97.7 98.9 99.2 99.6
P2+ CH2-11 T12-17 A18-34 A35-49 A50-64 A65+
Total Day Reach %
Source: Nielsen Npower, 9/22/15-12/27/15
TV Is Top Spare-Time Activity For Most -
Especially Among Millennials
37%
27%
21%
19%
27%
20%
24%
29%
42%
23%
31%
38%
42%
40%
19%
28%
30%
28%29%
18%
22% 22%
25%
Generation Z (15-20) Millennials (21-34) Generation X (35-49) Boomers (50-64) Silent Generation (65+)
Listen to Music Read Watch TV Connect with Friends/Family Travel
Source: Nielsen Generational Lifestyle Survey, Q1 2015
Ads On TV Are Most Trusted Advertising Format
Percent of Global Respondents who Trust Advertising Format (Completely or Somewhat)
Source: Nielsen Global Trust in Advertising Survey, Q1 2015 & 2013
Paid – Traditional
2015
Paid – Online/Mobile
2015
54%
54%
55%
56%
58%
60%
63%
Ads on the Radio
Ads Before Movies
TV Program Product Placement
Billboards and other outdooradvertising
Ads in Magazines
Ads in Newspapers
Ads on TV
Difference
from 2013
+1%
-1%
+2%
+1%
0%
-3%
-2%48%
47%
45%
43%
42%
38%
Online Video Ads
Ads in search engine results
Ads on Social Networks
Ads on Mobile Devices
Online Banners Ads
Text Ads on Mobile Phones
Difference
from 2013
0%
-1%
-2%
0%
-1%
-2%
TV Ads Are Powerful, Driving Consumers To Take Action
Percent of Global Respondents who Completely or Somewhat Trust Advertising Format
Percent Who Always or Sometimes Take Action on Format
46%
50%
50%
53%
56%
58%
58%
39%
62%
62%
63%
63%
69%
69%
36%
43%
42%
48%
46%
47%
56%
55%
58%
68%
56%
60%
63%
68%
Text Ads on Mobile Phone
Ads on Mobile Devices
Online Banner Ads
Online Video Ads
Ads on Social Networks
Ads Served in Search Engine Results
Billboards and Other Outdoor Advertising
TV Program Product Placements
Ads in Magazines
Brand Sponsorships
Emails I signed up For
Ads in Newspapers
Ads on TV
Consumer Opinions Posted Online
Trust Action
Action Exceeds Trust
Source: Nielsen Global Trust in Advertising Survey, Q1 2015 & 2013
Largely, TV Ads Have Strong Impact On
Buying Decisions
Buying decision Influence
4
4
5
4
5
5
7
6
6
6
5
7
7
9
7
6
12
11
17
18
38
14
15
15
17
19
20
19
25
30
31
32
34
35
34
37
38
34
39
44
47
43
A Tweet/Post by company/brand you do not follow
A tweet/Post by someone you do not already follow (not and ad)
SMS/Text Message ad
Ads delivered on mobile apps, including location-based ads
An endorsement from an online personality
An endorsement from a celebrity
Video game advertising (all forms of games)
Ads delivered through social media platforms
Billboards and posters
An email from a company/brand
Radio ads
Newspaper ads
Manufacturer or vendor website
A reseller or channel partner website
Products or services/featured in a TV show or movie
Magazine ads
In-theater advertising (pre-movie)
Online review by someone you do not know in real life
Online review or recommendation from someone within your social media circle
Television ads
Recommendations from a friend/family/known acquaintance
High Influence Medum Influence
Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy Survey 9th edition; Question: To what defree do the following influence your buying decisions?
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