the state of legal cannabis markets · 2020-03-06 · source: arcview market research/bds analytics...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by:
Presented by:Roy Bingham, CEO ∙ BDS AnalyticsTroy Dayton, CEO ∙ The Arcview GroupTom Adams ∙ Editor-in-Chief ∙ Arcview Market ResearchManaging Director, Industry Intelligence ∙ BDS Analytics
The State of Legal Cannabis Markets
Adult Use Has Now Overtaken Medical
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics 2
Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
$3.1
$3.8
$4.9
$6.3
$4.8
$6.8
$0.3 $1.0
$1.8
$2.9
$6.1
$8.1
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Medical vs. Adult Worldwide Legal Spending ($ billions)
Medical Adult-Use
3
Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
$3.4 $4.8 $6.7
$9.1 $10.9
$14.9
$19.3
$24.4
$30.7
$36.2
$40.6
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Global Legal Spending by Continent ($ billions)
Asia Pacific ROW Latin America Europe North America
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Growth Will Reaccelerate Going Foward
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The Rising Tide of Legalization Cannot Be Stopped
5
Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
U.S. CBD Spending Licensed Dispensaries vs. Pharmaceuticals ($ millions)
Licensed Dispensary CBD CBD Pharma
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Epidiolex Takes Cannabinoids Beyond Dispensaries
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics *Products containing a substantial proportion of CBD
2.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.7% 10.3% 11.2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q12019
U.S. CBD vs. THC Share of Licensed Dispensary Sales Tracked by GreenEdge™
CBD* THC
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Dispensaries Created the CBD Phenomenon
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2018
U.S. Dispensary High CBD Product Mix, GreenEdge™ Tracked Stores 2014 vs. 2018
Ingestibles Concentrates Sublinguals Topicals Flower Other
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
What Started With Flower is Now 95% Other Products
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
U.S. CBD Spending Licensed Dispensary vs. General Retail Channels 2018-2024
General Retail Dispensary
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
The CBD Retail Battle to Come: Dispensaries Against The World
9©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Constellation Investment Wakes up Wall Street
10©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Triggering a Flood of New Money Into Cannabis
11©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Sparking an M&A Explosion
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Market Lifecycle in Colorado
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
Growth Indicator Matrix
Baseline Consumers
Licensing and Taxation
Retail Universe
Resilience to Extra-Legal Market
Consumption Regulation
Supply Chain Regulation
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Retail Tracking Shows What Drives (or Kills) Growth
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
8.67 8.17
6.67
4.67 4.67 4.33 4.00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
AK OK NM NY OH NJ LA
Growth Indicator Matrix: Top and Bottom State Markets
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Huge Range of Index Values Driven by Regulator Approach
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
Oklahoma, $1.0
Oklahoma, $4.2
Oklahoma, $7.2
Ohio, $0.5
Ohio, $1.0 Ohio, $1.4
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3
Medical Cannabis Sales: Months 1-3 ($ millions)
Oklahoma Ohio
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Case Study: Oklahoma versus Ohio
16©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
First-Ever Provincial-Level Forecast
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
11.6%13.5%
3.6%2.1% 1.4%
2.6%
38.7%
0.4%
22.6%
3.1%0.3%
38.0%
3.4%3.6% 2.6% 2.0%
4.6%
35.7%
0.7%6.2% 2.9% 0.4%
18.2%
14.0%
3.6%2.0% 2.2% 2.9%
39.0%
0.3%
13.6%
3.7%
0.5%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Alberta BritishColumbia
Manitoba NewBrunswick
Newfoundland& Labrador
Nova Scotia Ontario Prince EdwardIsland
Quebec Saskatchewan Territories
The Canadian Provinces: Population versus Cannabis Revenue ($ millions)
% of 2018 Population % of 2018 Revenue % of 2024 Revenue
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Similar Growth Indicators Applied to Canadian Provinces
18©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
19
Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
Illinois Market Summary
No history of unlicensed competition
Vertical integration permitted
No product restrictions
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Case Study: Illinois Goes Adult Use
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
$145$210 $273 $296 $270 $233 $213
$270
$437 $616
$772 $928
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Illinois Legal Spending ($ millions)
Medical Spending Adult-Use Spending
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Quickly Turning State Into Fifth Largest U.S. Market
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$0.2 $0.4
$0.8
$1.4
$2.2
$3.2
$4.0
$4.5
$0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.3
$0.5 $0.7
$0.8
$-
$1
$1
$2
$2
$3
$3
$4
$4
$5
$5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
International Markets Legal Spending ($ billions)
Medical Spending Adult-use SpendingSource: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
The Seeds of an Enormous Worldwide Opportunity
22©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
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Source: Arcview Market Research/BDS Analytics
$0.1
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$1.0
$1.3$1.4
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Germany Legal Spending ($ billions)
©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
Case Study: German Medical Market
24©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics
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©2019 Arcview Market Research / BDS Analytics