the state of egypt today

7/31/2019 The State of Egypt Today

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THE STATE OF EGYPT TODAY: CHALLENGES TO DEMOCRACY

By: Alex Mette

ince 2011, when Egypt's revolution swept Hosni Mubarak from power, thepolitical landscape has undergone unprecedented changes. However, after

three decades in which political opposition was suppressed and human rights

openly abused, democracy is still under threat as deep political reform is blocked by

the military council that has been the centerpiece of Egypt's government since the

1950's. In this sense, and in the view of many Egyptians, the revolution remains

incomplete despite free elections for the Parliament and Shurra Council. Further,

several actions have drawn into question the military council's desire for true

political openness and their commitment to a transition to civilian rule. The effect

of this is that Egyptians have been held in a state of uncertainty and divisiveness

that adversely affect Egypt's economic recovery and threatens political stability.The Beginning of the Revolution

The United States' foremost concerns when massive protests broke out across Egypt

in January 2011 was the state of their longstanding relationship with then president

Hosni Mubarak, the stability of the Camp David Accord, and the dilemma they faced

in backing an unpopular ruler. Washington found itself in an awkward position as

"abandoning" Mubarak would send a signal to other rulers in the Middle East who

head similarly undemocratic governments yet each day that the US failed to take astrong stand against the violent crackdown on protestors eroded their already

damaged credibility among Arabs. This issue was resolved only when it became

eminently clear that Mubarak's time was over but was quickly replaced with the

fear that Egypt's most organized and popular political movement, al Akhwan, the

Muslim Brotherhood, would take control of Egypt. Since then, the Brotherhood has

taken steps to assure the United States that they will uphold Egypt's peace treaty

with Israel while also attempting to maintain a degree of ambiguity with respect to

their conservative base.

Challenges to DemocracyHowever, what is most threatening to Egypt's democratic transition and the stability

of the country are the negotiations the Brotherhood have entered with the Supreme

Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) surrounding the new constitution and the

sentiment among Egypt's youth thattheirrevolution is being hijacked. Fear that the

Brotherhood was trading political power for impunity and control over the roots of

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military power sent thousands back to the streets in late 2011 when they entered

negotiations with SCAF behind closed doors. The response of the military police and

armed forces to the renewed protests was a brutal crackdown that yielded images of

peaceful protestors, in particular women, being beaten ruthlessly and fired on with

live rounds; the violence led to dozens of deaths and added to growing doubts about

the likelihood of a peaceful transition to civilian rule.The Anniversary of the RevolutionWhile the Egyptian Revolution's one year anniversary was a peaceful and for some,

celebratory event, the days that followed saw protestors in the streets and renewed

violence as calls for an immediate end to military rule echoed in Tahrir. But while

thousands flocked to Cairo from all over Egypt for the celebrations on January 25,

2012, there were also those who called attention to the fact that there remained

significant work before the revolution could be called complete. Al thawramastamra, the continual revolution, is seen by many Egyptians though as

impractical and misdirected given the economic hardships that continued instability

are wreaking on the average Egyptian as tourism and investment have ground to a

halt. Further, with elections having already occurred for some elements of the

government and the Presidential election, despite being pushed back multiple times,

scheduled for the summer, many are simply waiting to see whether it will occur

before committing themselves to return to the streets.

Dividing EgyptiansThe most striking difference in Egyptian society from 2011 to 2012 is the tangible

division between those who support the continual revolution and those who regard

the ongoing protestors cynically, perceived as harmful to the economy and driven

less by patriotism than dissatisfaction with the performance of liberal political

parties in the parliamentary elections. While some political divisions are natural in

a complex society like that of Egypt, the military council has fanned the flames of

distrust and sought to portray the ongoing stability as a result of foreign

intervention. Further, SCAF has taken steps to shore up support among hard-line

Egyptians, for example, by attacking foreign NGO's, already extremely unpopular

with large elements of Egyptian society. By attacking democracy and human rights

organizations that are viewed with a great deal of suspicion by many Egyptians, the

military government made a public statement that gave credence to their claims of

foreign interference in Egypt's affairs and allowed them to present themselves as

protecting the countrys sovereignty. Their crackdown on NGO's may have also

been an attempt to set a legal precedent for dismissing civil court cases that activists


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fear SCAF will use to protect itself after a civilian government takes control of

Egypt.

Like the NGO case, violence at Port Said following a match between Egypt's most

popular football clubs was perceived as resulting from ulterior motives. While themajority of Egyptians expressed anger over the failure of the police to stop fans

rushing on the field or to protect players, others saw it as a reprisal against the

Ultras, a group of fans and activists who played a prominent role in Egypt's

revolution, often violently attacking police. Still more saw it as a way to allow

unrest to prevail, returning to a tactic employed by the Mubarak regime during the

revolution where government thugs were set loose in the streets and looting was

rampant. By facilitating or even perpetrating acts of violence and crime, critics hold,

SCAF is seeking to portray their absolute rule as the only way to protect Egypt and

ensure stability. While unheard of events such as bank robberies broke news beforethe violence at Port Said, the violence at Egypts football stadium has become

symbolic of the failure of SCAF to govern Egypt and their desire to hold on to power

by destabilizing the country.The Role of the United States

There are a range of threats to the stability of Egypt, its economic recovery and

democratic transition. Divisions between Egyptians over the legitimacy of the ruling

regime and level of trust regarding the transition to civilian rule are a cause for

serious concern. Further, while the Brotherhood must be seen first and foremost asdriven by a desire for political power, Washington must avoid making compromises

that undermine the perception of the US in exchange for short-term stability.

Ultimately any partnership between the Brotherhood, SCAF and the US alienates

large elements of Egyptian society and makes the same fundamental mistake that

the US made in failing to pressure Mubarak for democratic reform and human

rights: sacrificing the democratic aspirations of the entire Egyptian society in

exchange for upholding the status quo.

Egypt is experiencing rapid political change and faces substantial challenges inemerging from 30 years of autocratic rule. However, as much as Egypt needs time

to develop the institutions of democracy such as a robust civil society, judiciary, and

independent media, the immediate future is crucial to ensure that segments of

society are not alienated and Egypt's transition to civilian rule is deep enough to

ensure the independence of the parliament and presidency and those same

democratic institutions that will one day make up Egypts democracy.

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