The State of Climate ScienceScary Movie 2006

NASA 2006

The Greenhouse Effect

Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere

Some solar radiation is reflected by the

Earth and the atmosphere

Some of the infrared radiation Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all re-emitted in all directions by directions by greenhouse gas greenhouse gas molecules. The molecules. The effect of this effect of this is to warm is to warm the Earth’s the Earth’s surface and surface and the lower the lower atmosphere.atmosphere.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Concentrations

381

We can stabilize emissions now!

Global TemperatureTrends

0.8°C increase

1.4 – 5.8°C increase

381

Climate Change Impacts

» 1998 El Niño year saw massive bleaching around the world,

(c) WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND

Coral Reefs are Particularly Sensitive to Warm Sea Surface Temperatures

> 2005 (not an El Niño) year… but the hottest year on record

Mountain Glacial Melt

100’s of millions people will be affected

(c) WWF-Ca(c) WWF-Canon / NEYRET & BENASTAR(c) WWF Canon V.V.Sunder

Percent change in global crop yield

with CO2 effects without CO2 effects

Parry et al 2004

» Some plant species including trees, have already starting moving upslope (1-4m per decade) while some high-elevation, restricted species have been lost2

» Some have no where to go…Fynbos (Cape Floral Kingdom): 7,300 plant spp.

Plant Species Moving Up& Polewards

2Grabherr et al. 1994. Nature 369:448

Photo: M Case

• New species composition

• Increase in fire frequency and intensity

• Increase in insect outbreak

Boreal Forests are Expanding Northward

© WWF-Canon / Anthony B. RATH

Spread of pests and diseases

Current range

Future range

» Mortality can be over 50% in salmon runs through Jasper National Park, with highest losses during years with warm river temperatures4

4 Tyedmers and Ward. 2001. Pishereices Centre

Research Reports 9(7)

Warming Rivers Threaten Cold-adapted Species

Species Distribution Changes

» Implications for genetic, species, & population diversity

Bio

dive

rsity

Time

Current threat (bycatch, deforestation)

Current threat + climate change

» Prolonged droughts have lead to wild fires in Australia, United States, Portugal, the Amazon, etc.

Climate Change-Induced Drought Increases Fire

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005

FIVE Records Broken : • Most Named Storms:

26 named storms• Most Hurricanes:

14 hurricanes• Most Category Five Storms:

5 Category Five storms storms (with winds over 249 kph (155 mph)

• Most Storms Hitting the United States:

4 storms made landfall• Most Expensive Hurricane

Damage: Hurricane Katrina is

estimated at “over US$100 Billion total losses”

NASA: Hurricane Katrina

* Hurricane intensity has increased due to climate change1

1 Emanuel, K. 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436: 686-688.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline

• Less ice for marine species (seals, fish, polar bears)

• More open water

• Complete loss of summer sea ice by 2100

National Snow and Ice Data Center September 28, 2005

1973 2003

Extent of ice melt in Greenland, 1992 and 2002

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

Sea-Level Rise• 1 – 2 mm/year; 90 – 880 mm by 2100• New York, Bangledesh, Hong Kong, Sydney, Egypt,

WWF-US

Bryden et al. 2005 Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N. Nature 438: 655-657

Thermohaline Circulation Slowdown

Carbon Footprint• Total CO2 Emissions: 198.1 metric tonnes CO2 • Price per ton: $16.6 (US)• Total Offset Cost: $3288.59 (US)

– Includes: Flights, taxis, hotel• Total miles flown: >1,000,000 km

• How did we offset? – Support renewable energy initiative using the Clean Development

Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the WWF-supported Gold Standard.

• MyClimate™ www.myclimate.co.uk

• Carbon calculator: www.safeclimate.net/calculator/

We have the toolsWe can

We must