the south atlantic lcc’s third thursday web forum · the south atlantic lcc’s third thursday...

10-15-2015

The South Atlantic LCC’s Third Thursday Web Forum

Tracing impacts: connecting conservation actions to indicators

• Introduction

• Monthly topic

• Questions and discussion about presentation

• South Atlantic LCC staff updates

• Questions and discussion about updates

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Agenda

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Christy Ihlo, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions & South Atlantic LCC

Tracing impacts: connecting conservation actions to indicators

10-15-2015

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TRACING IMPACTS:

CONNECTING ACTIONS TO

INDICATORS

Dean Urban, Patrick Halpin, Jesse Cleary, John Fay, Lydia Olander, and Christy Ihlo

Duke University

1. Modeling how actions affect indicators, both

directly and indirectly

2. Embedding changes in indicators into a

decision support framework to compare

outcomes

OUR ROLE WITH THE SALCC

Predicting impacts of prescribed burning

Predicting impacts of working with communities

on green growth

Impact of coastal conservation actions on marine

fish

Demonstrating and organization’s impact on the

indicators

Demonstrating impact of land acquisition

proposals on indicators

USE CASE SCENARIOS

Predicting impacts of prescribed burning

Goal: a tool that will output changes in pine and

prairie ecosystem indicators based on user input

shapefile of area burned

Demonstrating impact of land acquisition

proposals on indicators

Goal: a tool that will output changes in all affected

indicators based on existing land acquisition

proposals

USE CASE SCENARIOS

BUILDING A MEANS-ENDS DIAGRAM

ACTION INDICATOR


ACTION ECOLOGICAL CHANGES INDICATOR


Reg. Burn Habitat

(ha)

Prescribed Burning

Index, Pine Bird

RCWO Habitat (ha)

BCHS Habitat (ha)

NOBO Habitat (ha)

Land Acquisition (avoid. conversion)


Ecosystem: Pine and Prairie

Index, Pine Amp

PARCAS (ha)


Reg. Burn Habitat

(ha)

Prescribed Burning

Habitat Suitability

RCWO Suitability (index)

BCHS Suitability (index)

NOBO Suitability (index)

Index, Pine Bird

RCWO Habitat (ha)

BCHS Habitat (ha)

NOBO Habitat (ha)

Forest Structure

Canopy Cover (NLCD, %)

Area Burned (ha)



Index, Pine Amp

PARCAS (ha)



Reg. Burn Habitat

(ha, avoided loss)

Prescribed Burning

Habitat Suitability




Index, Pine Bird

RCWO Habitat (ha, avoided loss)

BCHS Habitat (ha, avoided loss)

NOBO Habitat (ha, avoided loss)

Forest Structure


Area Burned (ha)

Forest Area (ha)

Connectivity analysis using

Blueprint corridors

(avoided loss)

Riparian Buffers

Natural Cover (%, avoided loss)

Index, Pine Amp

PARCAS (ha, avoided loss)




From means-ends diagrams, we look at how a

change in an indicator would be calculated

Continuing our fire example…. A change in bird index measured via an adjusted # of sp. per cell (some

habitat modeling, some changes in area)

A change in regularly burned habitat measured via a change in area

burned (ultimately, binary)

A change in amphibian index measured via an adjusted forest area in

PARCAS (land acquisition) (binary)

A change in natural habitat in riparian buffers (FW habitat indicator)

measured via a change in the percentage of natural cover (land

acquisition)

CALCULATING POTENTIAL UPLIFT

QUANTIFYING A MEANS-ENDS DIAGRAM

Arrows become

models/calculations

Reg. Burn Canopy

(ha)

Prescribed Burning

Habitat Suitability




Index, Pine Bird

RCWO Habitat (ha)

BCHS Habitat (ha)

NOBO Habitat (ha)

Forest Structure


Area Burned (ha)



Index, Pine Amp

PARCAS (ha)


Current BACS Habitat

Current NOBO Habitat

Current RCWO Habitat

Ecosystem Mask

Input Shapefile

Output Folder

Current Indicator: Pine Bird Index

Current Indicator: Reg. Burned Habitat

MODEL: PRESCRIBED BURN




Ecosystem Mask

Input Shapefile

Output Folder




Input Areas Outside Ecosystem




Ecosystem Mask

Input Shapefile

Output Folder




Updated Reg Burned Habitat Indicator

Reg Burned Habitat Indicator Change





Ecosystem Mask

Input Shapefile

Output Folder




Updated Pine Bird Indicator

Pine Bird Indicator Changes







Ecosystem Mask

Input Shapefile

Output Folder




Updated Pine Bird Indicator

Pine Bird Indicator Changes




RCWO Habitat Maintained


Regularly Burned Habitat

Updated Indicator Files and Change Files for:

Forested Wetland

Pine and Prairie

Freshwater Marsh

Maritime Forest

Beaches and Dunes (in development)

Freshwater Aquatic (in development)

Upland Hardwood (in development)

Landscape (in development)

Add some assumptions we are making

– loss of all habitat, accounting for

that, recalc patch sizes, loss of animal

habitat (email hilary re: logo)

MODEL: LAND ACQUISITION

Land acquisition is really an avoided conversion

question – if the land were not protected and was

developed or converted to agriculture, what would

be lost in terms of the SALCC indicators?


Forested Wetland Birds * Northern parula, black-throated green warbler, red-headed woodpecker, or Chuck-will’s widow

Indicators Alternative management actions

Acquire 1 Acquire 2 Acquire 3

Bird Index

Reg. Burned Habitat

Amphibian Index

Riparian Buffers

Cost

COMPARING ALTERNATIVES

What actions would you like to see modeled?

• Indicator revision update

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South Atlantic LCC staff updates

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Indicator revision update

• Marine

• Freshwater aquatic

[email protected]

South Atlantic salt marsh mapping: an update on regional mapping and

synthesis

Next month’s Third Thursday Web Forum

11-19-2015

10:00 am

Dr. Tom Allen

Professor of Geography

Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment

East Carolina University

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How to get involved with your cooperative

• Join the South Atlantic LCC web community

• Connect with a staff or other cooperative member

• Explore the Conservation Blueprint

blueprint.southatlanticlcc.org

southatlanticlcc.org

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Questions? *6 to unmute

the south atlantic lcc’s third thursday web forum · the south atlantic lcc’s third thursday...

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