the sociological study of hope and the economy (richard swedberg, 2007)

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The Sociological Study of Hope and the Economy:

Introductory Remarks

by

Richard SwedbergCornell University

December 5, 200

a!"ope #apan 0

"ope Studies Con$erence, December %&'%(, 200, )nstitute o$ Social Science,

University o$ *o+yo

%


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ABSTRACT

*he topic o$ hope is currently not very much studied in the social sciences and

this means that the emerging discussion o$ economy and hope, in sociology

and elsewhere, may still bene$it $rom a general discussion o$ hope- *his paper

points to some use$ul re$lections on hope that can be $ound in the religious and

philosophical literature- )t also attempts to summari.e what the social sciences

have said so $ar about hope, especially economics, sociology and

anthropology- ' )n the general and concluding section o$ the paper it is

suggested that it is important to approach hope $rom a perspective which is

such that it opens up this topic to the social sciences- /ne that has this uality

is the $ollowing! hope is a wishfor something to come true- *here are three

elements to this description o$ hope! 1% the wish, 12 its $ocus onsomething

specific, 13 and that the wish comes true- 4lements 12 and 13 have direct

lin+s to the social world and there$ore present entries $or the social sciences-

hat you wish $or depends on society, and so does the attempt to ma+e a wish

be reali.ed- *he conseuences o$ these ideas $or the sociological study o$ hope

and the economy are brie$ly e6plored-

2


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sociology- *he ambition here is to cast the net wide, in order to catch as many $ishes as

possible- *his will be $ollowed by a second and concluding part, in which ) will discuss what

this catch may mean $or a more precise understanding o$ hope as well as $or research on hope

and the economy, $rom a sociological perspective-

Starting $rom an 4veryday iew o$ "ope

Clear de$initions o$ any word or concept are di$$icult to come by, $or a number

o$ reasons, and hope is no e6ception- Bs 8ust mentioned, there is currently little e6act

+nowledge o$ what precisely constitutes hope- /ne nonetheless has to begin somewhere, and )

will start $rom a common, non'academic de$inition-


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with e6pectationE- *he latter o$ these two, the reader is told, is mainly used in poetic conte6ts

and is illustrated by the well'+nown 7iblical phrase to hope against hopeE 1a$ter Rom- iv!%&-

"ope, as suggested by these additional de$initions, also needs to be situated in

relation to trust- hile hope is not a social science concept today, trust is- hile both are

oriented to the $uture or, more precisely, to a positive state in the $uture, there nonetheless also

e6ist some di$$erences- /ne is that in trust you e6pect something to happen and would be

surprised i$ this is not the case- hen you hope, in contrast, there is much less certainty that

what is hoped $or will ta+e place- ith hope, reali.ation is less o$ a possibility than in the case

o$ trust-

hat meaning o$ hope is best suited $or the social sciencesG *here are di$$erent

ways to answer this uestion- *he word hope has been used in a multitude o$ di$$erent

conte6ts over the centuries and acuired many meanings in this process- )nstead o$ ma+ing an

argument at this point o$ the paper $or one o$ these as the most suitable candidate, ) have

chosen to present and discuss several o$ its di$$erent meanings- *his way more o$ the richness

and comple6ity o$ the concept o$ hope can become part o$ the discussion-

Conceived along these lines, the ne6t $ew pages o$ this introduction will serve as

an introduction both to the concept o$ hope in general and as a social science concept- ) have

also made a special e$$ort to touch on some related issues- =y way o$ proceeding will be to

present and discuss the way that hope has been used and analysed in religion, philosophy and

the social sciences- Bmong the social sciences ) will pay special attention to sociology,

anthropology and economics-

*he account o$ the role o$ hope in religion, philosophy and the social sciences

will be $ragmentary and incomplete, since there are $ew good studies on these topics- *he

reader who also wants to e6plore the role o$ hope in the arts, everyday li$e and academic

disciplines other than sociology, anthropology and economics, is re$erred to the literature in a

$ootnote and to the re$erence list at the end o$ this introduction- 2

"ope in Religion and Philosophy

)n the literature on hope it is o$ten noted that 8ust as there e6ists a tradition o$

political hope, there also e6ists a tradition o$ religious hope- Re$erences are usually made to

24rnst 7loch;sPrinciple of Hopecan, among other things, be described as an idiosyncratic

encyclopaedia when it comes to hope, including its role in everyday li$e-


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the role o$ hope in the 9ew *estament, especially to the writings o$ Paul and his $amous

statement in the $irst Corinthian Ietter about $aith, hope and love- *he religious tradition o$

hope sometimes has messianic overtones- )t is also e6plicitly normative, which means that

what you hope $or is the same as what is good-

*he +ey passage in Paul;s Corinthian Ietter, written around year 55, reads as

$ollows! So $aith, hope, love abide, these three but the greatest o$ these is loveE 1% Cor-

%3!%3- *his should not be interpreted as a statement that love is superior to hope- *he two are

rather part o$ each other, as an earlier passage in the same letter ma+es clear! Iove bears all

things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all thingsE 1% Cor- %3! emphasis added-

*he three so'called theological virtues o$ $aith, hope and love, are o$ten

contrasted in the religious literature to the $our cardinal virtues o$ prudence, 8ustice,

temperance and $ortitude 1e-g- Buinas %(FF, "ousen 200F- *he cardinal virtues, which trace

their origin to @ree+ philosophy, are characteri.ed by the $act that they can be learned, aided

by grace-


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colors- 7ut there also e6ist some di$$erences between the two- hile the opposite o$ optimism

is pessimism, the opposite o$ hope is $ear or hopelessness- Bnd while hope is sometimes

de$ined as an emotion or as sharing some $eatures with emotions, optimism is perhaps better

described as a disposition or a set o$ opinions-

Bnother di$$erence between optimism and hope comes out i$ we loo+ at the $ate

o$ philosophical optimism in the %&th century- *he $amous earthua+e in Iisbon in %55

delivered a heavy blow to the optimism o$ the 4nlightenment, as evidenced by the reaction o$

oltaire- )n %andide, or Optimism 1%5( the ideas o$ optimism are $amously satiri.ed- hen

Dr- Pangloss $or e6ample argues that the e6istence o$ the nose shows that nature has wisely

provided us with a good place $or our eyeglasses, it is Ieibni.;s optmism that oltaire has in

mind-

*hat the critiue o$ optimism did not necessarily e6tend to the concept o$ hope

can be illustrated by the wor+ o$ )mmanuel Aant- )n %riti&ue of Pure 'eason1%&% Aant

says that reason is interested in the $ollowing three uestions!

%- hat can ) +nowG

2- hat ought ) to doG

3- hat may hopeG 1Aant J%&%K %(L5!L35 emphasis added

)n e6plicating each o$ these three uestions, Aant emphasi.es that all hopingis directed

towards happinessE 1i*id-, p- L3L- *he reader o$ Aant;s te6t on perpetual peace is also told

that there are good grounds $or hoping that we shall succeedE 1Aant J%(5K %(0!%30-

*here is an e6istential tone to Aant;s $ormulation o$ the three uestions in

%riti&ue of Pure 'eason, and one can also $ind many interesting ideas on hope in the

wor+s o$ the e6istentialists- Aier+egaard, $or e6ample, discusses hope in connection with

memory and repetition- Bccording to'epetition1%&F3, memory means to repeat

bac+wards, and repetition to remember $orwards- "ope, Aier+egaard says, is neither the

same as memory nor the same as repetition- )nstead it means to do something novel and

brittle! hope is a new out$it, untried, sti$$ and shining, but which you have never used so

you don;t really +now whether you will loo+ good in it or i$ it will $itE 1Aier+egaard J%&F3K

%((5!L-

*here is also a danger to hope, Aier+egaard warns inEither+Or and this is

the case when hope gets to set the goal rather than gently drive the action- )t is indeed

beauti$ul to see a person put out to sea with the $air wind o$ hope one may utili.e the

chance to let onesel$ be towed away, but one ought never have it on board one;s cra$t, least

o$ all as pilot, $or it is an untrustworthy shipmasterE 1Aier+egaard %(&!2(2'(3-


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Bs to 20th century e6istentialists, several o$ these have shown interest in

hope, such as Blbert Camus, @abriel =arcel and #ean'Paul Sartre- The yth of isophys

1%(F2 by Camus is o$ special interest in this conte6t because o$ its sharp argument against

hope- Bccording to Camus, modern man is tempted to give in to hope, in the $orm o$ a

religion or doctrine that assigns meaning to the world and hides its essential

meaninglessness or absurd uality- *o hope, in other words, means to give in to an

inauthentic impulse and to $alsi$y one;s relationship to the world- Ii$e is absurd and this is

a truth that should be $aced- *he absurd is the contrary o$ hopeE and the re$usal to hopeE

is essential to absurd manE 1Camus %(55!FF, 2L-

Sartre;s ideas on hope came to their most concentrated e6pression in a series

o$ interviews that were published in %(&0 and have been collected in a volume entitled

Hope -ow- Sartre here says that he did not thin+ in terms o$ hope when he wrote his ma8or

wor+ in e6istentialism,.eing and -othingness1%(F3- 9onetheless, since the publication

o$ this wor+ he has increasingly come to $eel that everyone lives with hopeE and that

hope is part o$ manE 1Sartre %((L!33, 5L-

7y the phrase that hope is part o$ man, Sartre does not so much mean that

people are hope$ul or that they invest some o$ their actions with hope- "is argument is

instead that a person;s acts are always set within a broader goal : and since this goal is

hope$ul, it so'to'spea+ $rames and in$uses all other acts with its hope- /r in Sartre;s words!

everyone has a goal beyond the practical or theoretical goals o$ the moment, matters o$

politics, say, or education beyond all such matters, everyone has a goal that ) would call, i$

you wish, transcendent or absolute, and all practical goals have meaning only in relation to

this goalE 1i*id-, p- 5L-

*he $oremost philosophical wor+ on hope : and still the only ma8or

philosophical wor+ on this topic : is The Principle of Hopeby 4rnst 7loch- *his 3'volume

wor+ was mainly written during %(3&'%(F, when 7loch lived in the United States- )ts

impact on modern philosophy has been minor, partly because 7loch insisted on $ollowing

his own course and ignored mainstream philosophy, and partly because o$ 7loch;s

sympathy $or the Soviet Union and 4ast @ermany-

7loch has a broad and multi'$acetted concept o$ hope and argues that it can

sometimes be an emotion and at other times more o$ a cognitive act- /ne can learn to hope,

he says, and hope can also be taught- *here is genuine hopeE as well as $raudulent

hopeE 17loch %(&L!5- "ope, as is shown in great detail in The Principle of Hope, can be

&


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$ound in many aspects o$ human e6istence ' in art, music, detective stories, daydreams,

utopias and much more-

Bn important theme in 7loch is that hope is ontologically directed towards

the $uture and what has not yet come into being : what he calls the 9ot'?et 1-och+-icht-

*his "egelian sounding term should not detract $rom the $act that there is a concrete

uality to hope in 7loch;s version- 46pectation, hope, intention towards possibility that

has still not become! this is not only a basic $eature o$ human consciousness, but,

concretely corrected and grasped, a basic determination within ob8ective reality as a

wholeE 17loch %(&L!-

Bccording to The Principle of Hope,philosophy has utterly $ailed to deal

with hope, and one important reason $or this is that it has e6clusively been preoccupied

with the past- 9ot only does philosophy loo+ bac+wards, it also $ails to see the element o$

hope in the past- Ii+e


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lin+ed to the so'called *ocueville 4$$ect and can be $ound in The Old 'egime and the

'e/olution$ hat the *ocueville 4$$ect re$ers to is that towards the end o$ the %& thcentury

some re$orms were carried out in


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Blso modern sociology is incomplete and $ragmentary in its analysis o$ hope-

#ust li+e classical sociology, modern sociology seems to pre$er to discuss concepts that are

in some way related to the concept o$ hope, rather than hope itsel$ : such as trust,

e6pectations, aspirations, drive and the li+e- *his is also true $or the growing branch called

the sociology o$ emotions that sometimes touches on hope but pre$ers to $ocus on the

ma8or and more important emotions 1e-g- Aemper %(&!2&3, 7arbalet %((&!%50-

Bn interesting and rare attempt to turn hope into a use$ul concept in modern

sociology can be $ound in a lecture by Ral$ Dahrendor$ entitled )neuality, "ope, and

ProgressE 1%(L- *he author begins by ma+ing a sharp distinction between utopian hopeE

and realistic hopeE- *he $ormer he describes by pointing to the early writings by =ar6,

=arcuse;s notion o$ a multi'dimensional man and "abermas; pro8ect o$ human

communication- Realistic hopeE, in contrast, re$ers to what is concrete and possible to

achieve- Dahrendor$ also terms it e$$ective hopeE- Dahrendor$;s main thesis is that social

ineuality serves as an important incentive $or people to better their condition by

awa+ening realistic or e$$ective hope in them-


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hope is progress, may be open to doubt but i$ there is to be any progress at all, such

hope is one o$ its ingredients- 1i*id-

hile Dahrendor$ in his discussion o$ realistic hope comes very close to

supplying the reader with an operational de$inition o$ hope, no such de$inition is given-

/ne o$ our colleagues, however, who heard about our interest in hope and the economy,

has +indly supplied us with such a de$inition and we o$$er it as part o$ the discussion o$

hope as a social science concept- "ans >etterberg, a well'+nown e6pert on survey research,

wrote to us a propos hope that he very much would li+e to have the $ollowing uestion

as+ed on an annual basis in countries all over the world! Do you thin+ that the children

who are growing up today will have it better or worse than you have it, when they are your

ageGE 1>etterberg 2005- Perhaps this can be labelled pro8ected hope or, better, hope $or

others-

)n turning to the issue o$ survey research, it can be mentioned that the very

$irst attempt to include uestions about hope in survey research may well have ta+en place

in the early %(00s in @ermany- )n %(%2 Bdolph Ievenstein, a sel$'educated wor+er and an

acuaintance o$ =a6 eber, published an attitude survey in a boo+ entitled The orking

%lass 1uestion1Ievenstein %(%2 $or discussion, see /berschall %(L5!(F'%0L- /ne o$ the

uestions that was as+ed read Ehat hopes and wishes do you haveGE and it turned out to

be very success$ul- /ne 22'year old miner answered, $or e6ample, as $ollows! E) have one

desire $or mysel$ and the rest o$ man+ind- *hat she be able to parta+e very soon in the

beauty o$ the world- *he world has enough o$ it to ma+e all man+ind happy and

peace$ulE 1/berschall %(L5!%0F-

=entioning this early e6ample o$ a survey, also gives me an e6cuse to note

that one o$ the $oremost theoreticians o$ chance and probability, Charles Peirce, has some

intriguing ideas about the role o$ hope in a world ruled by chance- *he human community,

Peirce appears to argue, inspires Ehope or JaK calm and cheer$ul wishE, since it always will

outlast the individual 1see in this conte6t "ac+ing %((0!2%%'%2- 9o'one, as $ar as ) +now,

have e6plored in detail the role that hope plays in Peirce;s philosophy-

>etterberg;s approach to hope : survey research where you as+ someone to

compare the situation today to that o$ tomorrow : points to a whole genre o$ e6isting

research- *o cite one e6ample among many, the surveys on optimismE and pessimismE

by @allup )nternational- *his organi.ation typically carries out research in some $i$ty'si6ty

countries simultaneously, and tries to establish i$ their inhabitants are optimistic or

pessimistic- *his is measured with the help o$ uestions on the theme o$ do you thin+ ne6t

%3


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year will be better than this yearGE *here are also uestions that attempt to loo+ at the

economic dimensions o$ this theme, such as the economic prospect in general, whether

unemployment will increase and the li+e 1e-g- @allup )nternational 2005-

*his type o$ research leads in a natural way to the uestion i$ there e6ists a

relationship between the idea o$ hope in the economy and surveys o$ consumer con$idence-

*hese surveys are very common in contemporary society, where they are closely $ollowed

by politicians and business people- Surveys o$ consumer con$idence trace their origin to

the wor+ o$ @eorge Aatano, in particular to his )nde6 o$ Consumer Sentiment $rom %(52-

*he two most cited surveys o$ consumer con$idence in the United States today are the

Consumer Con$idence )nde6 1produced by the Con$erence 7oard and the )nde6 o$

Consumer Sentiment 1produced at the University o$ =ichigan- *he uestions that are

as+ed in this type o$ surveys, include the $ollowing! Ioo+ing ahead, do you thin+ a year

$rom now you 1and your $amily living there will be better o$$ $inancially, worse o$$ or 8ust

about the same as nowGE and *urning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do

you thin+ that during the ne6t %2 months we;ll have good times $inancially or bad times or

whatGE 1eiss 2003- Results $rom surveys o$ consumer con$idence indicate that young

people have more con$idence in the $uture than old people, and well'o$$ people more than

poor people-

*he notion o$ consumer con$idence overlaps to some e6tent with that o$

hope, but there also e6ist signi$icant di$$erences between the two- 7oth are, $or e6ample,

directed at the $uture and that things may be better in the $uture- *he most important

di$$erence is that while surveys o$ consumer con$idence are interested in establishing what

will happen, hope is more about what one wants or wishes to happen- )t is true that what

will happen and what one wants to happen may coincide- 7ut even when this is the case,

there is a comple6ity to the notion o$ hope that goes well beyond the standard measure o$

consumer con$idence-

hat represents so $ar the most impressive and important attempt to

approach the topic o$ hope through survey research has been made in #apan at the )nstitute

o$ Social Science at *o+yo University, in connection with the pro8ect o$ "opology 12005'-

*he bac+ground to this research is the sense among the public in #apan since a $ew years

bac+ that the country lac+s hope hence the interest among some o$ its social scientists $or

this topic-

*he main survey by this institute, underta+en in 200L, $ound that the ma8ority

o$ the country;s population 1roughly &0 O had hope and that the ma8ority o$ these 1some

%F


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L0 O also believed that they would be able to reali.e this hope within a reasonable amount

o$ time 1@enda 200- People, it turned out, hoped $or di$$erent things and $or males hope

was typically attached to wor+- 9ot only individuals but also households were researched

and wealthy households had more hope than poor households-

?uri @anda : the main researcher behind this wor+ : concludes that the data

does not allow you to determine i$ hope has actually declined in #apan or not- Since

#apanese society, however, is moving in the direction o$ a society with more old people,

with more unemployment, and certain other $eatures and since these $actors 1old age,

unemployment and a $ew other items have been shown to be associated with low levels o$

hope, #apan may very well be heading in the direction o$ less hope-

*o $ully evaluate the situation in #apan, it can be added, one would also need

comparative data, something that does not seem to e6ist today- hile the @allup

)nternational Survey $indings $or 2005 is based on very di$$erent uestions than those that

were used in #apan, one o$ their $indings should nonetheless be mentioned- *his is that the

level o$ optimism varied uite a bit between regions as well as between countries 13%O and

2LO respectively- Does hope, one wonders, vary eually muchG

/ne also wonders what the results would have been in #apan i$ ualitative

research methods had been used, such as in depth interviews, participant observation and

the li+e- ould these be able to answer more subtle uestions that are hard to get at with

the help o$ survey researchG ould they, $or e6ample, validate the approach o$ someone

li+e sociologist >ygmund 7aumanG Bccording to 7auman, one can $ind hope in many

situations where people have no ob8ective reason whatsoever to be hope$ul- "ope is

stronger than all imaginable Mtestimony o$ reality;E 17auman 200F!L- "ope needs no

proo$E, he also says- "ope is valid and real even i$ groundlessE 1i*id-- )n brie$, the

relationship o$ hope to empirical reality is comple6 and raises uestions that may reuire

many di$$erent types o$ methods to e6plore-

)$ we move on $rom sociology to anthropology, it would appear that eually

little attention has been paid to hope in this branch o$ the social sciences- Bccording to an

attempt to trace the history o$ research on hope in early and classical anthropology, there only

e6ists one wor+ on this topic!"aith, Hope, and %harity in Primiti/e 'eligion1%(32 by

Robert Ranulph =arrett 1Crapan.ano 2003a, b- *his, however, does not mean that

anthropologists have $ound no re$erences to hope in the many cultures they have researched

over the years- Bccording to the "uman Relations Brea


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e6plain the conditions under which it becomes stronger or wea+er, =iya.a+i argues that

hope should primarily be studied as a method- Drawing on the wor+s o$ 7loch, 7en8amin

and Rorty, he says that any other way o$ proceeding would be to negate the nature o$ hope-

Bn important aspect o$ =iya.a+i;s approach to hope as a method can be

$ound in his notion o$ repetition or replication- "opeE, he says, cannot be argued $or it

can only be replicatedE 1=iya.a+i 200F!%%0- Bn e6ample o$ replication in The ethod of

Hopecan be $ound in the analysis o$ the attempt by the Suavo people to start a real estate

pro8ect in the %((0s, a venture that they initially approached with deep pessimism because

o$ their earlier $ailures with this type o$ enterprise- /ne o$ their religious leaders, however,

told the Suavo people that they now had @od on their side, something which made them

see things in a new and hope$ul light- )n =iya.a+i;s terminology, hope was thereby

replicated and trans$erred $rom the area o$ religious thought to the area o$ real estate-

Similarly : and this is how The ethod of Hopeends : =iya.a+i wants to replicate or

trans$er hope onto the area o$ anthropological +nowledge itsel$-

*he main uestion that according to =iya.a+i drives his research : How do

we keep hope ali/e3' also in$orms his second ma8or study, which deals with the

economy o$ hopeE 1=iya.a+i $orthcoming- Using a ma8or #apanese securities $irm as his

research site, =iya.a+i shows how some derivative traders; hope$ul vision in$uses not only

their daily economic activities but also their lives more generally- *his study represents

=iya.a+i;s most important study o$ hope and economy so $ar-

)$ we now turn to the science o$ economics, it soon becomes clear that

economists have paid even less attention to hope than sociologists and anthropologists- Bn

important reason $or this is no doubt connected to the hold that homo economicushas had

on mainstream economics, $rom the end o$ the %(th century till today- 4conomic man is

euipped with superior cognitive s+ills but he has no emotions- "e is never surprised or

disappointed, and he never e6periences hope or $ear- "e can, however, calculate

probabilities and ta+e ris+s and a ris+'ta+er can to some e6tent be labelled an optimist, 8ust

as someone who is ris+ averse can be called a pessimist-

4ven i$ it is possible to analyse some aspects o$ hope with the help o$

concepts such as ris+'ta+ing and rational e6pectations, the $iction o$ economic man

severely restricts the analysis o$ hope- *his becomes clear i$ one compares the minimal

space allotted to hope in microeconomics or rational choice theory to the one that can be

$ound in early economics- )n The ealth of -ations1%L, $or e6ample, Bdam Smith

touches on the role o$ hope in economic li$e in both a comple6 and realistic way- "e notes,

%


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among other things, that the hope o$ a better li$e motivates people to wor+ harder : what he

calls the com$ortable hope Jo$ the average personK o$ bettering his conditionsE 1Smith

J%LK %(L!(&-

hat may well be Bdam Smith;s main contribution to the analysis o$ the role

o$ hope in economic li$e has to do with a di$$erent topic, namely his thesis that hope ma+es

people overestimate their chances o$ ma+ing a pro$it and underestimate their chances o$

ma+ing a loss- *here is plenty o$ the presumptuous hope o$ successE and the hope o$

good luc+E, he says, but not enough $ear o$ mis$ortuneE 1Smith J%LK %(L!%2L- Smith

notes that the e6istence o$ lottery illustrates the presumptuous hope o$ successE, and that

it is this type o$ hope that ma+es adventurers enter into business and young people choose

pro$essions $or which they have little talent- )t is the same romantic hopeE, Smith adds,

that ma+es young men enlist in the army at the beginning o$ a war and disregard the

chance o$ getting +illed 1i*id--

Bs already noted, it is to a great e6tent the popularity o$ the idea o$ economic

man that has prevented economists $rom addressing the role o$ hope in economic li$e

beyond such notions as rational e6pectations, ris+'ta+ing and the li+e- Some unorthodo6

economists, however, have tried a di$$erent approach to economic analysis and, in doing

so, they have occasionally touched on the topic o$ hope- /ne o$ these is Aenneth 7oulding,

the author o$ an interesting article entitled Sources o$ Reasonable "ope $or the


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probability at all to an event, this is always possible in situations that involve ris+,

according to the well'+nown argument by


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challenging mainstream economics and especially one o$ its ma8or $indings is o$ relevance

to the study o$ hope- *his is that people tend to overestimate their chances to succeed and

underestimate their chances to $ail- *his type o$ research, which is +nown as

overcon$idence theory, is sometimes summari.ed with the phrase sadder but wiserE it

also brings us bac+ to the argument o$ Bdam Smith in The ealth of -ations-

/ne study that can be used to illustrate overcon$idence theory is *he

7orrower;s Curse! /ptimism,


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e6pectation is closely associated with rational choice and $ormal calculability : two

categories that do not go very well with hope-

*he way that hope will be approached in this paper is as $ollows and, again,

the reason $or choosing this particular angle has to do with the purpose o$ opening up hope

to the social sciences- =y point o$ departure is a simple description o$ hope as the wish for

something to come true- *here are several elements to this de$inition, but $or the moment

their unity and overall meaning should be stressed! one does not wish $or something

abstract, but $or something precise and one also wants this wish $or something precise to

be reali.ed- hether it ultimately can or will be reali.ed or not, is not +nown but this does

not stop the actor $rom hoping that it will- "ope, in short, is characteri.ed by a certain type

o$ uncertainty, but not because it cannot be calculated $or cognitive reasons 1


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points- *he $ormulation ) have used is to become trueE rather than to be reali.edE, since

hope does not have the direct and instrumental uality o$ the latter e6pression- "ope, it can

be added, is always rooted in a person- )t can remain in the person or it can reach out

through some action $rom the person into reality-

)n the case that hope is translated into action in the world, outside the person,

there is another opening $or the social sciences, becausesomethingcan usually not become

true unless there is assistance or acceptance $rom other people- )$ one;s environment, $or

e6ample, is very positive to something, there is more o$ a chance that this something will

be hoped $or, and that it will become true-

Still, hope is always anchored in the person and cannot be reduced to, say, a

simple recipe $or how to do something- "ope may also notinspire to action and thereby

remain a wish $or something to become true- )$ this is the case : i$ hope is passive rather

than active ' the person places hersel$ in the position to wait $or something to happen to

her- "ence the a$$inity between waiting and hoping, with the danger that i$ one waits to

long, hope may vanish and the element o$ waiting may overta+e the person-5

)$ we return to active hope, hope that wishes to be reali.ed outside the person,

it would seem that certain types o$ hope and ways o$ reali.ing these may become so

ingrained or characteristic $or certain groups and societies that they can be described as

social factsin Dur+heim;s sense- *hey constitute, in brie$, the normalE way to hope, and

divergencies $rom them are accompanied by a sense o$ coercion and possibly also by

sanctions $rom other people- People may, $or e6ample, hope $or material success o$ a

certain type, $or one;s children to be success$ul in a certain way, and so on-

Similarly, in case the actor tries to reali.e his or her hope, the uestion arises

i$ the meansto go about this reali.ation constitute a social $act or not- B social $act in this

case would mean that there e6ists ways that are commonly used to reali.e a goal, as

opposed to new and untried ways- *he chances that hope will be reali.ed is presumably

larger i$ the means that are used have already been tried out and are commonly used-

7ut there may be more to hope and its social dimension than so- Aier+egaard

spea+s o$ hope as $air wind $illing the sails and pushing the wish $or something to its goal-

7ut he also ma+es the interesting comment that hope can so to spea+ overta+e its ob8ect

and lessen its chances o$ being reali.ed- *his is where hope goes $rom being help$ul to

preventing its ob8ect $rom coming into being and sometimes even destroying it- Bgain, a

5*hese thought are inspired by the wor+ o$ 9ao+i Ausaga-

22


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door is opened up to the social since it is easy to imagine situations where the individual

succumbs to over'enthusiasm precisely because o$ what other people do-

/ne can illustrate some o$ the view o$ hope that has been advanced in this

paper with the help o$ a diagram with two dimensions- /ne denotes whether hope stays

within the person or whether the person will also try to reali.e it in reality 1passi/e+acti/e-

*he other dimension attempts to capture the uality that hope is use$ul in some doses ' to

get the wishing going ' but that it also can become so strong that it overwhelms the normal

un$olding o$ hope and prevents it $rom becoming true 1infusing+o/ertaking see


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Bgain, we have an entry $or the social sciences here, to the e6tent that the

destruction o$ the capacity $or hope comes $rom the outside- )t can, $or e6ample, have been

caused by some speci$ic event and relevant events may vary $rom society to society-

Perhaps also the opposite is true, namely that the capacity to hope can be strengthened

under certain circumstances- Can it also be restored, once it has been destroyedG e do not

+now-

)$ one applies this view o$ hope to the economy, one can get a sense $or some

o$ the topics that can be analy.ed with the help o$ the social sciences- Bs to the element o$

wish, it would seem that people wish $or economic things, among other reasons, because o$

scarcity there is 8ust not enough o$ everything $or everybody- )t would also seem that

people primarily wish $or material matters when it comes to the economy- *his would

mean that wishes o$ this type are more aimed towards the outer world than towards the

inner world- )nterestingly enough, however, this may not always be the case- People have

plenty o$ economic dreams and wishes about the economy 1e-g- =iya.a+i $orthcoming-

4lement Q 2 : that hope always means a wish $orsomething: ta+es on a

special meaning in the world o$ the economy- /ne may wish $or a $ortune, a good 8ob,

success in business and so on- Bs earlier mentioned, this element has a direct lin+ to the

social in the sense that di$$erent groups, societies and so on have di$$erent economic items

to which hope can be attached- )n a $eudal society, the peasant may hope $or a non'

rapacious lord in a capitalist society $or a high demand $or the crop, and so on-

Similarly, 4lement Q 3 : the wish $or something to *ecome true: is played

out according to its own logic in the world o$ the economy- )$ the person +nows what to do,

the chance o$ reali.ing the hope will grow- "ope can also get the person going and be the

helping hand that "irschman spea+s about- 7ut i$ hope overta+es the action to reali.e the

hope, the entrepreneur may go wrong, end up as a speculator or a rec+less investor 1see


25/35

#ust li+e the ob8ect o$ hope may be a social $act, this is also the case with the

means that are used $or its reali.ation- 4conomic means, in brie$, may acuire the

e6emplary or obligatory uality that comes with a social $act- Bgain, using uncommon

means will presumably lower the chances $or the hope to be reali.ed-

7ut lower chances $or reali.ation may always not be a handicap in the area o$

the economy it can also translate into a large pro$it i$ the e$$ort is success$ul- Bn argument

o$ this type can, $or e6ample, be $ound in Schumpeter;s theory o$ entrepreneurship- )n

general, the topic o$ hope and entrepreneurship may be closely related 1e-g- Anudsen and

Swedberg 200&-

eisel 1J%(33K %(%-

*here are $amilies that are unbro+enE, resignedE and bro+enE- )n the authors;

terminology, the unbro+en have hope, the resigned have no hope, and the bro+en $eel

hopeless-

*he purpose o$ the discussion in the second part o$ this paper has not been to

develop a general theory o$ hope, and then apply it to the economy- )nstead its purpose has

been to loo+ at hope in a way that opens it up $or social science study, especially the

sociological study o$ hope and the economy- ) have indicated two places where hope has

direct lin+s to society! you hope $orsomethingand $or this something to *ecome true-

"opleessness also appears to be caused by social $orces- Bll o$ these cases, ) argue, invite

to $urther discussion, re$lection and research 1see


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R e$erences and Suggestions $or ygmund- 200F- *o "ope is "umanE, Tikkum%(,L!LF'-

7echtel, @ordon- %((- B Dual'Source )ndicator o$ Consumer Con$idenceE, ociological

ethodology2!2(('32F-

7en8amin, Bndrew- %((-Present Hope4 Philosophy, 0rchitecture, 7udaism- Iondon!

Routledge-

7erger, Peter- %(L(-0 'umor of 0ngels4 odern ociety and the 'edisco/ery of the

upernatural- 9ew ?or+! Doubleday Company-

7loch, 4rnst- %(&L- The Principle of Hope- 3 vols- Cambridge, =B! *he =)* Press-

7oulding, Aenneth- %(&F- Sources o$ Reasonable "ope $or the


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Clot$elter, Charles and Phillip Coo+- %(&(- elling Hope4 tate #otteries in 0merica$

Cambridge, =B! "arvard University Press-

Crapan.ano, incent- 2003a-maginati/e Hori2ons4 0n Essay in #iterary+Philosophical

0nthropology- Chicago! University o$ Chicago Press-

Crapan.ano, incent- 2003b- Re$lections on "ope as a Category o$ Social and Psychological

BnalysisE, %ultural 0nthropology%&,%!3'32-

Cronan, illiam- %((%--ature!s etropolis4 %hicago and the 5reat est- 9ew ?or+! --

9orton-

Cullen, #im- 2003- The 0merican Dream4 0 hort History of the dea that haped a -ation-

/6$ord! /6$ord University Press-

Dahrendor$, Ral$- %(L-ne&uality, Hope, and Progress$ 4leanor Rathbone =emorial

Iecture- Iiverpool! Iiverpool University Press-

De =e.a, David and Clive Southey- %((L- *he 7orrower;s Curse! /ptimism,


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"arvey, David- 2000- paces of Hope- 7er+eley, CB! University o$ Cali$ornia Press-

"irschman, Blbert /- %(%-0 .ias for Hope- 9ew "aven, C*! ?ale University Press-

"irschman, Blbert /- %(&L- )n De$ense o$ PossibilismE- Pp- %%'5 in'i/al 9iews of arketociety$9ew ?or+! i+ing-

"irschman, Blbert /- %(L-De/elopment Pro:ects O*ser/ed- ashington, DC! 7roo+ings-

"obsbawm, 4ric- %(3- *he Principle o$ "opeE- Pp- %3L'F% in'e/olutionaries- 9ew ?or+!

9ew Bmerican Iibrary-

"ouser, R-4- 1ed-- 200F- The %ardinal 9irtues4 0&uinas, 0l*ert and Philip the %hancellor-

*oronto! Ponti$icial )nstitute o$ =edieval Studies-

#ahoda, =arie, Paul Ia.ars$eld and "ans >eisel- J%(33K %(%-arienthal4 The ociographyof an 6nemployed %ommunity- 9ew ?or+! Bldine-

Aant, )mmanuel- J%&%K %(L5- %riti&ue of Pure 'eason$*rans- 9orman Aemp Smith- 9ew

?or+! St- =artin;s Press-

Aant, )mmanuel- J%(5K %(0- Perpetual Peace! B Philosophical S+etchE- Pp- (3'%30 in

"ans Reiss 1ed-,;ant!s Political ritings- Cambridge, UA! Cambridge University Press-

Aemper, *heodore- %(&- "ow =any 4motions Bre *hereG edding the Social and the

Butonomic ComponentsE,0merican 7ournal of ociology(3,2!2L3'&(-

Aier+egaard, Sren- J%&F3K %(&-Either


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=alrau6, BndrH- %(3&-an!s Hope- 9ew ?or+! Random "ouse- *rans- o$#!Espoir$

=arcel, @abriel- %(L2$ Homo 9iator4 ntroduction to a etaphysics of Hope$9ew ?or+!

"arper-

=arrett, Robert Ranulph- %(32-"aith, Hope, and %harity in Primiti/e 'eligion- 9ew ?or+!=acmillan-

=ar6, Ieo- %(%- The achine in the 5arden4 Technology and the Postwar deal in 0merica-

9ew ?or+! /6$ord University Press-

=iya.a+i, "iro+a.u-


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Sartre, #ean'Paul- %((L-Hope -ow4 The >A?B nter/iews- Chicago! University o$ Chicago

Press-

Sanyal, 7ishwapriya, Senyal- %((F- Social Construction o$ "opeE- Pp- %3%'FF in Iloyd

Rodwin and Donald Schn 1eds-,'ethinking the De/elopment Experience- ashington, DC!

7roo+ings-

Schudson, =ichael- %(((- ?ou;ve @ot =ail! B


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*ocueville, Ble6is de- %((&- The Old 'egime and the 'e/olution$*rans- Blan S- Aahan- ol-

%- Chicago! University o$ Chicago Press-

*ocueville, Ble6is de- %&L2- Ei$$, #errold- %(LF- #ohn Ianghorne and *urner;s M


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the sociological study of hope and the economy (richard swedberg, 2007)

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