the slow pace of fast change the future of energy systemssupercritical carbon dioxide-based power...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Slow Pace of Fast Change
The Future of Energy Systems
Garry GoldenForward Elements IncMarch 4, 2019
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Foresight 101: Four Futures Thinking
3
Disciplined Constrained
Decline Collapse
Transformed Continued Growth
?(2008-2016)
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Imagining the Four Futures of…
4
Disciplined Constrained
Transformed Continued
Growth DeclineCollapse
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20th Century Dynamics 21st Century Dynamics
Baseline FutureMaintenance, Preservation & Renewal
Design for Behavior Change
Distributed Energy Resources
The Slow Pace of Fast Change in Energy Systems
Transactive Grid
Cyber Security
Sector Integration (Gas + Grid; Mobility)
Digitalization Decentralization Decarbonization
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SurfacingUncertainties
Industrial InternetDistributed Resources & Sector Coupling
Role of Molecules Role of Connected Data
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EIA_AEO 2016
10 Years: Uncertainties in Fuel Dynamics
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10 Years: Uncertainties in Policy (2020 – 2030)
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10 Years: Uncertainties in Players & Business Models
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10 Years: Uncertainties in Technology Deployment
Coal comeback? Cleaner Natgas? Transforming Generation Asset Utilization & Longevity?
Coal plant – no CO2 capture 500 MW .06 ($/kWh)90% amine capture 400 MW .11 ($/kWh)90% CO2 capture w/ fuel cell 900 MW .08 ($/kWh)5% CO2 capture with fuel cell 522 MW .06 ($/kWh)
(Source: Fuelcell Energy & ExxonMobil)
Flue gas
Nat gas
CO2
CH4
Carbonate
Fuel Cell
Electricity
Heat
Carbonate Fuel Cells
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50-megawatt thermal (25MWe) world's only industrial-scale supercritical carbon dioxide-based power plant and CO₂ cycle test facility.
Allam Cycle Natural-gas plant in La Porte, Texas
10 Years: Uncertainties in Regulatory Landscape
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Surfacing Uncertainties that might Impact the Natural Refrigerant Industry…
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Industrial Innovations
Distributed Resources & Sector Coupling
Role of Molecules Role of Connected Data
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The Big Picture
Distributed Resources
& Sector Coupling Gas + Grid Transportation + ??
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Policy Scenarios: Electrify Everything vs Deep Decarbonization
RenewablesBattery Storage& V2G Integration
DecarbonizationScale & Versatility
Incumbents PtG Pathway for Oil & Gas
Molecules-led Pathway Electrification Pathway
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Momentum: Renewables Plus Storage for Power Grid
Renewables on the Rise Energy Storage Battery Revolution
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Policy-led Technology ‘Miracle’
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Renewables with Storage & ‘Virtual Power Plant’
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Electrification: Testing Viability of Vehicle to Grid (V2G)
19
V2G Vision = EVs as Dispatchable Energy Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of
Energy Storage and Solar Photovoltaics (SHINES)
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Facilities & Cold chains: Pure Electrification Scenario
Embrace Electrification &Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
❑ Onsite Solar & Battery ❑ Transactive Grid (Buy & Sell Power)❑ IoT Equipment – Data as Asset
(Devices Help Balance Demand) ❑ Electrified Transportation
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Wildcard = The Refrigeration Battery
Utilities & Customers Embrace Thermal Energy Solutions
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…but wait, what if Electrify Everything
Isn’t Feasible?
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Deep Decarbonization via: Distributed Energy (Gas+Grid)Sector Coupling (Mobility)Power-to-Gas (Clean Molecules)
2020 – 2030
Molecules-led Pathway
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Lingering Scars vs Strengthening Signals
Natgas + Fuel Cells for Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
Credit: Doosan
Rise of Power Parks63 MW Beacon Falls
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NatGas + Fuel Cells = Oil + Combustion Engine
21st Century 20th Century
The Simplicity of Electrochemical Conversion
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Selling New Energy Appliances: SOFCs (Solid Oxide) & PEM Fuel Cells
100-home pilot programEU Passes 1,000 Installs;
US Dealerships
Factory Investments (20K/yr)
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People Discover Fuel Cells in RVs & Construction Sites
27
Construction Site Diesel Generator Alternatives
Propane-fed RV & #Vanlife Generators
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Simplifying Energy Infrastructure for Data Centers
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Gas vs GridWill our facilities & equipment stay grid connected?
Gas plus Grid Will our facilities & equipment expand to gas + grid resources?
Natgas + Fuel Cells for Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
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Sector Coupling
Pathways to Transportation ‘Electrification’
Electrons Molecules
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What will govt mandate…?How will OEMs respond …?
Electrification of Vehicle Fleet
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Fuel-based EVs
Pathways to ‘Electrification’ include Electrons + Fuels
Plug-in EVs Hybrid ICEs
Thinking Beyond Passenger Vehicles:
Rail Marine Trucking Aviation/UAVs
Autonomous Last Mile / Micro Transit Robotics
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Marathon, Not a Sprint
… Elon Says Game-OverBatteries have Won!
… meanwhile OEMs betting onintegration & fuel-based EVs
More than three-quarters of executives (78% global; 82% China; 85% U.S.) say fuel-cell electric mobility will be the real break-through for electric mobility.
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BEVs ‘Have Won’ vs Real-World Limitations of All Electric Pathway
OEM Cost-to-X vs Daily Use Demand
Uptime for Fleets &Recharging in Urban Markets
Full Costs of Grid Management
‘Duck Curve’ to ‘Dragon Curve’ Battery pack = 400 miles
Daily Need = 40 miles
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Total Grid Management Costs ‘Duck Curve’ to ‘Dragon Curve’
‘Duck Curve’ ‘Dragon Curve’
Illustrative
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The Case for Fuel Cell + Battery Integration
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o Long-term Cost Curve (kW)
Battery $80-100 kW (at volume)
Fuel Cells $20-30 kW (at volume)
o Total Cost of Ownership plus
Total Cost of System Management
o Lower Infrastructure Costs at Scale
(Julich Study, 2017)
o Market Incentives for Existing Incumbents
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The Shared Strategy for Integration & Fuel-based EV Fleet
Hydrail Aviation / UAVs
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The Shared Strategy for Integration & Fuel-based EV Fleet
Hydrail
Maritime
Aviation / UAVs
Trucking
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Why does this matter?
Need Methods to Scale up Clean Hydrogen Value Chain
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The Case for Power-to-Gas: Energy Storage vs Sector Coupling (Integration)
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Decarbonization Policy 2020s
Power to Gas (PtG) Delivers Scale & Versatility
The National Fuel Cell Research Center's Research and Development on "Power-to-Gas"
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PtG Innovations in Clean Molecules
Electrochemical Compression & Purification
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Current State Power to X Plans
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Decarbonization for Steel Making Cut CO2 by 25% by 2025
Remaining CO2 emissions by 2045
HYBRIT (Hydrogen Breakthrough Iron Technology)
Power to Gas (PtG) = Decarbonization of Heavy Industry
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Accelerate Arrival CO2-free Ammonia
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Accelerate Arrival CO2-free Ammonia
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Accelerate Arrival CO2-free AmmoniaFuel & Energy Storage
Solid Oxide CellSOC4NH3
Renewable Electricity based electrolysis cell
makes gas that is used in the production of
ammonia for fertilizer or fuel.
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Ammonia will be rising in the Headlines
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Embracing the Clean Molecules Pathway Of Deep Decarbonization
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Energy Transitions
SurfacingUncertainties
Next Steps
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Every day I make an effort to move toward what I do not understand.
- Cellist, Yo-Yo Ma
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Non-Traditional Policy & Technology Partnerships
Look to Non-Wire (Data) Solutions
Elevate Brand of Clean Molecules
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Industrial Innovations
Role of Connected Data
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Hype Cycle
Internet of Things
(IoT)