the sea level projections of usace ec 1165-2-211 geer 2010
DESCRIPTION
Sea level rise projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in greater context.TRANSCRIPT
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The Sea Level Projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in Context
Kris Esterson & Sergey GorlachevEverglades Project Joint Venture
GEER 2010Greater Everglades Ecosystem RestorationThe Greater Everglades: A Living Laboratory of ChangeJuly 14, 2010
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OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION
How are SLR projections are developed using USACE guidance (EC 1165-2-211)?
EC projections in the context of:
•Latest scientific literature on sea level rise•Other projections in use in the region•Related climate change effects•Role in decision support
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HOW ARE THE PROJECTIONS DEVELOPED?
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Naples Tide Station Record
Record exceeds 40yr minimum
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High Rate Contribution (standard worldwide)
Intermediate Rate Contribution (standard worldwide)
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EC’s projections connected to orthometric and tidal datums
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LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE
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Responding to Changes in Sea Level:
Engineering Implications
NRC, 1987
The source of the EC’s
High and Intermediate
Curves
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Sea Level Projections from the Literature
1.43m
0.18m
USACE EC 1165-2-211For Naples, FL
From Rahmstorf (2010)
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OTHER PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES
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2050 2100
0 ft
6 ft
1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999)
3 ft
1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004)
2030
?
?
2 ft
1 ft
4 ft
5 ft
2000
SFRPC 10% Worst Case
SFRPC 50% Moderate Case
SFRPC 90% Least Case
SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida
>1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009)
0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998)
0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999)
EC 11
65-2
-211
High
EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate
>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)
0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004)
2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009)
EC 1165-2-211 Historic
NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet”
?
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GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
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Drivers Stressors Impacts
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2Ocean
Acidification
Sea Level Rise
Hurricane Intensity
Precipitation Change
Increased Global
Temperature
Impacts to Natural and
Built Environments
Typical SLR Impact Assessment
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Drivers Stressors Impacts
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2Ocean
Acidification
Sea Level Rise
Hurricane Intensity
Precipitation Change
Increased Global
Temperature
Impacts to Natural and
Built Environments
Exploring Causation
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What GHG emissions scenario would produce this SLR?
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Actual Emissions vs IPCC SRES Scenarios
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
n (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
EC “High” SLR Projection
EC “Intermediate”
EC “Historic”
Source: Global Carbon Project
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RELATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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What other climate change effects are related to this SLR scenario?
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Drivers Stressors Impacts
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2Ocean
Acidification
Sea Level Rise
Hurricane Intensity
Precipitation Change
Increased Global
Temperature
Impacts to Natural and
Built Environments
What Climate Effects are Associated with a “High” SLR Scenario?
Accelerated SLR cannot occur in a vacuum
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UTILITY AND LIMITATIONS IN DECISION SUPPORT
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EC’s Projections & Decision Support
Scenarios- End of academic process and start of decision support.
Scenarios- Three scenarios with equal chance of occurrence.
Not probabilistic- No “most likely” projection. Not predictions/forecasts- They bound rather than hide
uncertainty. Multiple futures rather than single line forecasts.
No information on “surprises”- Smooth projections don’t describe potential surprises such as leaps in the rate of rise
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EC’s Projections & Decision Support
Not probabilistic- Makes traditional risk assessment unclear. Calculation of traditional risk requires probabilities.
Not predictions/forecasts- Makes cost-benefit analysis difficult as benefits may vary depending on SLR scenario. Complicates engineering design.
No information on “surprises”- Management strategies (AM, SBP) based on SLR projections may not fully incorporate the range of potential outcomes.
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Questions?