The Science of DiscoveryFrom Exploration 1.0 to Discovery 2.0

Tim Craskewith R Rowe, J Sykes, G BeggSteve Beresford and the TWG

Special Guest: Edward de Bono

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HUMILITY

Discovery Science Rule #1

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• Need to develop new proxy techniques -Not proxies of proxies…..

e.g. not just using drilling to collect equivalent of deepsoil samples

o Especially when covered terrains have may have no regolith preserved due glaciation (Permian)

• New techniques based on primary dispersion and cheap horizontal drilling across steeply dipping basement

• True Mineral System understanding

• Sector wide transformational innovations not only in technical geoscience but also in innovations in socio-technology

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Capability gap closure – Discovery 2.0

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Capability gap closure – Innovation

Transformational

Breakthrough

Incremental

Company → Sector → Industry

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Value Creation

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LEVEL OF INNOVATION REQUIRED

Radical Improvement

Changing the Rules or Meaning

Simple ProcessesIncremental Changes

IndustrywideCollaborativeInnovation

To get there need more Idealistic GoalsBackcast from these rather than trying toForecast the future via incremental projections

Need Enlightened Exploration Thinking

German philosopher of the Enlightenment MovementImmanuel Kant in 1784

"Have the courage to use your own understanding! — that is the motto of enlightenment.“

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Teaching Thinking Increases Performance

Picture: Andy BakerSource: The Australian

"It has been shown that the teaching of thinking increases performance in every subject by 30 to 100 %This cannot be ignored.”

Edward De Bono

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POWER OF PERCEPTION

“Most thinking errors are errors of perception noterrors of logic” De Bono

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Area Perception Errors

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Source: https://sharpbrains.com

Recent Perceptions of Mineral Systems

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From Hagemann et al, 2016

“Fighting the Hydra” – Multi-Headed Dogma

Rudolph Tegner -Hercules and the Hydra 191910

Use Contrarian Thinking to challenge dogma and errors in perception

Discovery Science Rule #2

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Science of Discovery

Session 1: How has Exploration & InvestmentThinking has Failed…and is still Failing

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“Mining turns rocks into $Money”

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Image Source: www.amusingplanet.com Stone Sculptures by Hirotoshi Itoh, 2012

Discovery turns rocks into $Money Wealth

• Wealth includes knowledge, well being & community benefit

• Mining predates the concept of money and currency

• The oldest mine in the world mined ochre for adornment for spiritual and ritual ceremonies

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Ngwenya Mine mined red ochre in stone age Swaziland 43,000 years ago

Search for Wealth not Dollar$

Discovery Science Rule #3

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People + Organisations + Technologyturn rocks into Wealth

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How is this working currently?

• Exploration Industry not good at taking up new ideas- neither is Resources sector at large!

“ The Resource industry and geoscience are slowto employ fundamental ideas to economic geology”Jon Hronsky, CET Chair

• Signs of appetite for innovation….but“ Why are we not even crystallising the knowledge we have?”

Jon Hronsky, CET Chair

source: articlesweb.org

Courtesy Will Turner

Our meetings need additional “Thinking Hats”

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• Gold Hat – Money, value chain and economics

• Silver Hat – Stakeholders – benefits to all

• Brown Hat – Environment and Licence to Operate

• Purple Hat – Spiritual Thinking: create fulfilment, wellnesschange peoples lives for the better

Discovery

Science

Exploration needs a broader Conceptual Framework

Mineralising SystemsScience

Targeting Science

Value Chain

Stakeholders

Licence toOperate

DISCOVERY SCIENCEIS DIFFERENT PERCEPTIUAL DIRECTIONPOSSIBLY CONTRARIAN WORKFLOWS

Discovery

Science(is a really big concept)

Mineralising SystemsScience

Targeting Science

Value Chain

Stakeholders

Licence toOperate

LTO includes Legal and frameworkValue Chain includes Mineral EconomicsGeometallurgy, Metallurgy and EngineeringDiscovery Science – New Innovative Thinking and Organisational

What got you here…won’t get you there!

• We have hero’s of discovery

• David Lowell – Porphyry Coppers including Escondida in 1979

• Nikolay Urvantsev – Norilsk Nickel Copper sulphides in 1914

• Roy Woodall – Kambalda Ni 1966- ExDiv successes like

Olympic Dam

• Men of their day- given search space at given time

• To do same today we would need to do differently, and with different mindsets

Take care listening to old war stories

David Lowell(source: Mining.com)

Roy Woodall(source: Aus Acc Sci)

NikolayUrvantsev)

A Cruel Paradox?

It would appear that knowing in great detail how a deposit can form……does not help much in making them easy to find!

Example: VMS deposits

Logical Deduction: Studying deposits to understand how they formed may not help us that much……

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Reality: Typical Detection Level Tool

Positive

Negative

TrueFalse

False-Positivesswamp target population

*If go under deeper covercost of systematic testingbecomes prohibitive

False-NegativesTool not effectivein search spaceAnomalies missed

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Other Inconvenient Truths Current science and tools are not finding orebodies…….

The two globally best known and most successful explorers –Mark Creasy and Robert Friedland …….are not geologists

Big Picture geoscience is often just accademic…….and not applied by explorers

Serendipity still appears as important than geology in discovery

(Though Richard Schodde’s analysis may suggests otherwisehow do you measure the component of luck in any successful project??)

The best exploration thinkers and mineral discovers do not work for major or even medium sized companies….and many are underemployed.

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Ivanhoe Mines - Robert Friedland

Cloncurry , Australia Cu, Au, Mo, Re*

Platreef, South Africa PGE, Au, Ni, Cu*

Kamoa and Kakula, DRC Cu, Ag, Co*

Kipushi, DRC Zn, Pb, Cu, Ge

Voisey’s Bay, Canada Ni, Cu, Co, PGE*

Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia Cu, Au

Monywa, Myanmar Cu

Moditaung, Myanmar Au*

Eunsan, South Korea Au,Ag*

Jinshan, China Au

Seryung, Indonesia Au*

Significant Discoveries 1996-2016

Confirmation Bias

• Economists offer prophecies so vague any event can substantiate them

• Ditto: Get Rich Quick books

• Ditto: The utterances of MD’s of Junior Explorers…

• DANGER: Internet search engines are now learning your preferences so can serve up more to confirm your bias!!

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Brokers Forecasts for Gold 2013 vs 2016 Actual

Average forecast about rightat 1250/oz but spread onindividuals $1600-$900/oz

Wisdom of Teams?

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Shadow of the Headframeor follow the Rainbow?

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Discovery Science

Session 2: If exploration is not the answer then what is?

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Rule #4: Real Diversity in Teams

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Your facilitator will now demonstrate the“Domains of Knowledge Potato”

Sirius Resources Distilled – from S2R’s Mark Bennett

Team Characteristics1. Small and motley crew who believe in themselves2. Diverse and gender balance 50:503. Must enjoy thrill of the chase4. Forge the team – can’t just build – heat, pressure & hammer blows!5. Incentivised , no Plan B all dependent on shared success (M.A.D)6. Lives vs career: make life depend on it7. Cost conscious – use as if your own8. Strong QAQC avoids rework or doubt9. Strong Communication

Organising and Teamwork

• Teams have left brain analytical DEDUCTIVE thinkers and

• Right Brain more intuitive INDUCTIVE thinkers

• Targeting requires integration of both and ABDUCTIVE thinking

• Need to leverage all thinking skill sets in the team

• Rule takers , rule makers and rule imagineers

Source: research-methodology.net

Beware the “Planning Fallacy”

• Planning does not eliminate the Uncertainty or Risk

• Use Pre-mortem techniques or risk Post-mortem!

Positive Behaviours

• Need to be agile and adaptive

• E.g. drill early to answer fundamental unknowns

• And test “bleeding obvious” straight away!

• Adaptive behaviours drive luck

• Always testing both the ground and the Targeting Model

Targeting Models

1. SYSTEM PROCESSES

2. CONSTITUENT PROCESSESe.g. sulphate reduction

3. TARGET ELEMENTSe.g. py + barite, carbonaceous shale

4. INTERP PRODUCTe.g. map extent permissive host facies

5. RATINGscore favourability & uncertainty

6. PRIORITISATIONProspectivity plus plus plus

Multi-scale, multi-stage, adaptive targeting

Hayward N 2017Target 2017

Targeting Across Scales: relative process importance

Source: Cam McCuaig, BHP Target 2017 Abstracts, GSWA record 2017/6

Big Data

Data

InformationKnowledge

UnderstandingPlus

Imagination

Wisdom

Imagination

Rule #5: Use Imagineering to explore the future and run scenarios

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“Imagination is more important than Knowledge”Albert Einstein

Known and Unknown at the limits of Uncertainty?

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“Flearning” – Why don’t we tolerate failure?

• Teaching Culture

• Right vs Wrong…… no grey area

• The Law, Legal Profession and Nanny State

• Intolerance of Risk Taking

• Intolerance of Uncertainty

• Risky behaviour associated with youth and immaturity

• Yet being able to cope with uncertainty is one definition of Maturity

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“Flearning” – How to increase return on Failure?

Like safety, learn from every failure – large & small

Review with Five Fs1. Fast2. Frequent3. Forward- looking4. Formalise - annual failure report5. Folklore - shared lessons part of culture of candourLook for patterns

• Work on culture – want bold leadership, not afraid to fail

• “Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes” Oscar Wilde

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image: http://www.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/p/remember-the-five-f-s/

Rule #6: Flearn

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Embrace the Unkown

Understand that Risk and Uncertainty are DIFFERENT

In the Unknown Unknown we can still run experiments…this is called exploration R&D

Discovery Science

Base Rate of the Rare and Creating Luck

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What happens when success base rates are very low?• In contrast to the Oil industry, The accepted base rate for mineral

exploration projects is very low

• Only 0.1% or 1 in 1000 Mineral Exploration project returns a significant profitable mine

• This is getting close to “Blind Luck”

• So what if serendipity is the factor that creates the highest probabilityof success when searching in uncertain data?

Beware Probability BlindnessSpecific numeric probability definitions :(source: CIA & Strictly Boardroom)

• Certain: 100%

• Almost certain: 93% (+/- 6%)

• Probable: 75% (+/- 12%)

• Chances about even: 50% (+/- 10%)

• Probably not: 30% (+/- 10%)

• Almost certainly not: 7% (+/- 5%)

• Impossible: 0%

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Based on this chance of large mineral deposit discoveryshould be considered close to impossible!

RULE #7 Make LuckPlanned Serendipity

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What is Serendipity?

1. Having the knack of finding something just as you need it

2. The combination of accident and sagacity

Sagacity

We need to recognise the VALUE of chance event

that is, to achieve ‘deep perception’ or ‘awareness’

How to attract Good Luck?

• “Luck is opportunity meeting preparedness”

• Roy Woodallspoke about important role of luck in discovery

• Luck is usually retrospective…..

• But HINDSIGHT is very dangerous - Rationalisation ≠ Truth

• So how to make luck?...... or be luckier?

• Luck Attractors: generosity, increased energy, lucky mindset

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How to attract Good Luck?

“Luck is opportunity meeting preparedness” Oprah WinfreySo inverting that we have “Prepare to be Lucky”– luck is something that can be learned, prepared for……

How to prepare? Ref: Dr Richard Wiseman “The Luck Factor” 4 Principles

1. Create chance opportunities

2. Thinking Lucky

3. Feeling Lucky

4. Denying Fate

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Serendipity vs Blind Luck

• Praising the serendipity of the untrained may add to “the romance” reinforces poor impression of geoscience in the exploration community:

“A lucky bastard ……is still a bastard”

Credit: Thinkercafe51

• Ore deposits are produced by mineralising systems

• Some Mineralising Systems operate at the scale of the entire lithosphere [and some at scale of the planet?]

• They are intimately linked to the global-scale geosystem, including plate tectonics, deep mantle structure and the supercontinent cycle

Summary

Rule #8: Use Systems Thinking

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1. Gain deep understanding of Systems

2. Make Systems Maps

3. Use mathematics to model and test sensitivities

4. Analyse for insights and identification of Key Levers

Unstoppable commodity price swells and waves…...

Ride the Wave! Our industry is an example for a system with delays

Missed WaveStranded Resource

Surfing Price Trends

Shaping MarketOver investmentat cost peakSmashed

Background Image source: Inhabitat.com

The Why? – Why we need Systems Thinking

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Feedback Loops Required

Recent Perceptions of Mineral SystemsBUT… without feedback none of these is a System Map

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Each circle or matrix box or triangular field is a system and each of these has sub-systems

Arrows indicate a time series of events(or mixing lines)

From Hagemann et al, 2016

Acutely Observe Patterns vs AnomaliesAnomaly = the signature of focus

• Fixation on anomalies can lead to bump hunting mentality

• Example: Cloncurry mag-gravpost discovery Ernest Henry IOCG

• “going straight for the needle”

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Image source: Fathom Geophysics

Pattern = the signature of system process

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Example: Tin Mineral System

MappingHelping us understand& predict ore

Sedimentary AccumulationSub-system

Granitic AccumulationSub-system

Ore SystemSub-systems

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Tin Mineral System –Sedimentary Sub-System

Fluvially suspended clays

Clays with crystal substitution of Sn

Off-shelf turbiditesFans, mixed quartz, carbonate mud and

clays

Airborne aeolian clay and muscovite

+ quartzoseparticulates

Clay on Floodplainmeander migration

(refining)

Clay deposited offshore shelf riftsExtended continental

crust/lithosphere

Intensely chemically

weathered sedsPlus cycle 1 low topo

supercontinent

Clay in DeltasOn continentalCrust close to

land

PLUMES + HotspotsGEOSYSTEM

chemicalweathering

low topographicreliefsun luminosity

temperateto tropicalclimate

recycling previous cycle rock products

SUPERCONTENTCYCLE GEOSYSTEM

EarlyDeposition

Winderosion

Aerosolsettling

Shelf edgedispersion

accretion

Isostaticlimits

Erosionrate

Clayproduction

Redeposition

Redepositionrate

Deep OceanSediments

risein CO2

SO2

regolithblanketing

Protolithexposure

continental breakupPassive marginextension

(INTERNAL OCEAN) lateraltectonicescape

continentalcold-dry

continentalhot-dry

Major riversystem R

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Reduced Sn enriched protolithsPlus cycle 1 phyllites& S-granites 80M yr

stable continent

recycling previous cycle particulates

THE SUN

accretion

Loading Subsidence

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Tin Mineral System –Granite Sub-System

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Tin SystemsVenn SpaceSystems SummaryApril 2017

Discovery Science considerations beyond Systems Thinking

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Sourcehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_systems

Rule #9: Mineralising Systems are Pan-dimensional

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Your facilitator will now demonstrate the“String Theory Technique for reducing Space-Time

Dimensionality”

Without a safety harness….

Discovery Science Rules1. Humility

2. Use Contrarian Thinking to challenge Dogma

3. Build real Diversity into Teams

4. Search for Wealth not Dollar$

5. Use Imagineering

6. Flearn

7. Make Luck – Planned Serendipity

8. Learn, practice and apply Systems Thinking

9. Mineral Systems are Pan-dimensional64

A Presentation of Thȋnkercaféand Thinker-events• Thȋnkercafé offers the following services:

• Thinking Skills Workshops

• Decision Making, Innovation Mindset & Corporate Provocateur Workshops

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• Contact: +61 (0)467 856 912timcraske50@gmail.com orinfo@thinkercafe.com

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