the science of climate change - overview
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The Science of Climate Change - Overview. Primary Source: IPCC WG-I - Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Science of Climate Change - OverviewThe Science of Climate Change - Overview
Primary Source:
IPCC WG-I - Summary for Policymakers
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)(IPCC)
Established in 1988 byEstablished in 1988 by• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)World Meteorological Organization (WMO)• United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)(UNEP)
Supports the UN Framework Convention on Climate Supports the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)Change (UNFCCC)• adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994. adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994. • overall policy framework for climate change issueoverall policy framework for climate change issue
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Role of IPCCRole of IPCC
"assess on a comprehensive, objective, "assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation"adaptation and mitigation"
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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Role of IPCCRole of IPCC
"The IPCC does not carry out research nor "The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature."scientific/technical literature."
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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IPCC Working Groups & Task ForceIPCC Working Groups & Task Force
Working Group I - "The Physical Science Basis"Working Group I - "The Physical Science Basis"
Working Group II - "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"Working Group II - "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"
Working Group III - "Mitigation of Climate Change"Working Group III - "Mitigation of Climate Change"
Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesTask Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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IPCC Working-Group ReportsIPCC Working-Group Reports
First Assessment Report - 1990First Assessment Report - 1990
Second Assessment Report - 1995Second Assessment Report - 1995
Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2001Third Assessment Report (TAR) - 2001
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) - 2007
Plus: special reports, technical papers, methodology Plus: special reports, technical papers, methodology reports and supporting material. reports and supporting material.
(source: www.ipcc.ch)
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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Presented by
R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chairand
Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair
Nairobi, 6 February 2007
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DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
Since the TAR, progress in understanding how climate is changing in space and in time has been gained through:
• improvements and extensions of numerous improvements and extensions of numerous datasets and data analysesdatasets and data analyses
• broader geographical coveragebroader geographical coverage• better understanding of uncertainties, andbetter understanding of uncertainties, and• a wider variety of measurementsa wider variety of measurements
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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
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Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Gobal mean temperature
Global averagesea level
Northern hemisphereSnow cover
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200
6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200
0
Period Rate
Years /decade
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Warming in the Arctic is double that for the globe from 19th to 21st century and from late 1960s to present.
Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth.
Note different scales
Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (°C)
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Regions of disproportionate changes in heavy (95th) and very heavy (99th) precipitation
Proportion of heavy rainfalls: increasing in most land areas
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The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.
The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.
Drought is increasing most places
Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and
subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand
with warming
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N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance.
Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing
North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs
SST(1944-2005)
Marked increase after
1994
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Frequency of occurrence of cold or warm temperatures for 202 global stations for 3 time periods: 1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red).
1979-20031951-19781901-1950
Warm nights are increasing; cold nights decreasing
fewer more fewer more
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Snow cover and Arctic sea ice are decreasing
Spring snow covershows 5% stepwise drop during 1980s
Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade(Summer: -7.4%/decade)
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Glaciers and frozen ground are receding
Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreasedby 7% from 1901 to 2002
Increased Glacier retreat since the early 1990s
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Some aspects of climate have not been observed to change:
• Tornadoes
• Dust-storms
• Hail
• Lightning
• Antarctic sea ice
Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
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Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.
A Paleoclimatic Perspective
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CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities
Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era
Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
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The atmospheric concentration of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years
CO2
CH4
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Global-average radiative forcing estimates and rangesGlobal-average radiative forcing estimates and ranges
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Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change
The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2.
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Attribution
• are observed changes consistent with
expected responses to forcings
inconsistent with alternative explanations
Observations
All forcing
Solar+volcanic
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Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Continental warming
likely shows a significant anthropogenic contribution over the past 50 years
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Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
• Best estimate and assessed likelihood range for future temperature projections for first time
• Broadly similar to the TAR but not directly comparable
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.
• Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected.
• Earlier IPCC projections of 0.15 to 0.3 oC per decade can now be compared with observed values of 0.2 oC
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
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Projected warmingin 21st century expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes
and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
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The Science of Climate Change - The Science of Climate Change - OverviewOverview