DR THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAKCOMPARATIVE DEMOCRATIZATIONIN SOUTHEAST ASIA

SOUTH WINDTHE ROTARY CLUB OF BANGKOK SOUTH

President : Narain Suradejvibul • Immediate Past President : Mike Doyle • President Elect & Membership Director : Krin Charnmaytesakul • Vice President : Dana Caron • Vice President : Joop van Delden • Secretary : Finbarr O’Connor • Treasurer : John Casella • Administration Director : Alastair Timblick • Communications Director : Ravi Sehgal • Fundraising Director : Tim Cornwall • Rotary Foundation Director : Yod Tantianunanont • Service Projects Director : Dean Outerson • Sergeant at Arms : Songkran Grachangnetara

Charter Granted 7 August 1961

facebook.com/RotaryBangkokSouth @RotaryBkkSouth

No. 259927th November 2015

Today’s Topic:

“IRREGULAR MIGRATION“Anoop Sukumaran

By RTN Frank Timmons

On Friday afternoon 20 November RCBS enjoyed the privilege of a presentation by Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak entitled: “Comparative Democratization in SEA”.

Dr. Thitinan is currently a Director of ISIS … the Institute of Security and International Studies, of the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University. He is also an Associate Professor of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, and holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics, an M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of John Hopkins University, and a B.A. from he University of California, Santa Barbara. Dr. Thitinan was awarded the prestigious United Kingdom “Lord Bryce Prize” for “Best Dissertation in Comparative and International Politics” for his work on the political economy of the 1997 Thai economic crisis.

Dr. Thitinan has published many articles, books, and book chapters on Thailand and SEA political economy, foreign policy, politics, and media. He has a regular column in the Bangkok Post, and his op-eds have frequently appeared in local and international media.

Dr. Thitinan’s presentation theme was the observation that “all of SE Asia’s incumbent regimes are under stress”, despite being well entrenched and consolidated. These incumbent regimes

include the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), Malaysia’s UMNO, the Myanmar Military, and the Thai Military.

The one SE Asian incumbent regime which is bucking the trend is Singapore’s People’s Action

Party (PAP). Until recently, the PAP had been steadily losing strength, and the previous election cycle saw

its majority reduced to only 60%, though this translated to 90% control of parliament due to gerrymandering. However, this year the PAP trounced the Worker’s Party, taking 70% of the popular vote.

Why has the PAP been able to buck the trend and improve its hold on power? Dr Thitinan observed that the PAP is responsive, dynamic, inventive, and merit-driven. The PAP grooms new people and welcomes new faces. It is a meritocratic party in a meritocratic society. Existing PAP leaders know how and when to step aside, becoming mentors to rising new leaders.

Dr. Thitinan also explained that the Myanmar military, which has ruled since 1962, was very surprised by the 8 November election. It was widely believed that ethnic parties would get 20% of the vote, with the NLD taking 60%. However, the NLD won 80% of votes, giving it total control. This was clearly a vote for Aung San Suu Kyi, and a vote against the Military. Dr. Thitinan observed that Aung San Suu Kyi was a great Democracy Icon, but may struggle as a political leader, especially in her likely role as shadow president. She will need to overcome her habit of micromanaging, and develop a capacity to recognize and welcome new talent.

Dr. Thitinan also had very interesting observations on Cambodia (CPP under stress, Hun Sen harassing the opposition) Indonesia (consolidating democracy, making progress), Philippines (making progress, but lacking strong institutions), and the AEC (overhyped,

lacking in direction and cohesiveness; don’t expect too much).

He observed that Thailand’s current regime is “strong and strict”, and to be successful must effectively tackle corruption, achieve economic growth of 3% or more, and “make no big mistakes”. The Rajabhakti Park corruption crisis is really “blowing up”, and appears to indicate a lack of crisis management skill. Dr. Thitinan predicts that 2016 will be a very tense year, and 2017 could be even more tense and contentious.

Dr. Thitinan generously shared his extensive political knowledge and experience with the RCBS. He packed an amazing amount of detail into a 15 minute presentation.

Guest Eric Hallin and host RTN Poul RTN Rui consults with Khun Khob

PE Ken takes home the Cosmos whisky

RTN Stuart presents a certification of appreciation to RTN Dr. Chase

P Narain gives the thumbs-up to an assist from RTN Stuart

PE Ken, PP Niti and RTN Rod enjoy a pre-lunch drink

SNAPSHOTS FROM RBSC LUNCH, 20th November, 2015

Mercury VilleBTS Station: Chidlom

Siam ParagonBTS Station: Siam

Empire TowerBTS Station: Chong Nonsi

www.dressedthailand.com

salads, wraps, sandwiches, paninis, pasta, soups, smoothies

CLEAN DRINKING WATER FOR BAN HUAY TONG JING VILLAGE

SNAPSHOTS FROM RBSC LUNCH, 20th November, 2015

Thanks to a generous donation of Baht 300,000 given by the Rotary Club of Bangkok South in July, 2015, the Karen Hilltribes Trust (KHT) has been able to construct a water system in Ban Huay Tong Jing village in Mae Hong Son giving access to a reliable supply of water for the Karen villagers living there.

Mae Hong Son is the poorest province in Thailand, with 64% of the population living below the poverty line, and 23% living in extreme poverty. 31% of Karen in Mae Hong Son province do not have access to clean water which causes diseases such as typhoid, malaria, stomach ulcers, renal failure and other diseases.

For the past 15 years KHT has been successfully installing gravity fed water systems across Mae Hong Son province. To date, they have installed around 100 water systems benefiting several thousand people. In August this year a team of 6 British volunteers assisted KHT’s construction team and local villagers to construct a small dam

which pipes water via a filter tank, and then 2 km downhill into two large concrete storage tanks (10,000 litres each). Pipes were then laid to supply the clean water to the village, providing one standpipe for every three houses.

Villagers were trained to maintain the system for the future which is essential to keep the water clean. Heavy rains may occasionally dislodge some pipes, but this is rare. The KHT construction team will visit the village at a later date to ensure all is well.

Records show that typhoid is reduced by 98% in villages which have a KHT clean water source. Malaria levels are also reduced. An additional benefit to help improve the lives of the villagers of Ban Huay Tong is a recent project, funded by the American Women’s Group of Bangkok, to construct 20 latrines in the village.

ADVERTISING SPACE

AVAILABLEplease contact Khun Khob at

info@rotarybangkoksouth.org

Khun Khob’s Club Almanac #259927 November 2015

The Crowne Plaza Bangkok Lumpini Park Hotel, 952 Rama IV Road, Bangkok 10500 Thailandinfo@rotarybangkoksouth.org | 02632 9160 | www.rotarybangkoksouth.org

Happy Birthdays:None

Wedding Anniversary Greetings:PP Michael Schulz November 28CP Geoffrey Carter December 2Rakesh Sodhia December 2

Attendance for 20th November 2015: 74%Present 42, Make-up 14, Absent 20, Exemption 29, Total 105

Visiting for 20th November 2015From AbroadPascal De Corte RC Zottegem, Belgium

Invited Guests: Introduced by:Eric Hallin Poul WeberMarc Lavoie PP Don LavoiePeter J. van Haren PP Sean Brady

Recent Makeups:RC Eastern Seaboard, 12th November 2015: Tim CornwallRC Bangkok, 19th November 2015: Gerard Geraets RC E-Club One, 19th November 2015: Thanakorn Telan

Service Projects, 9th November 2015: Adrian Topham, Dean Outerson, Doug Riach, Joop van Delden, Mark Shaw, Michael Bain, Rudy van der Hoeven, Stuart Lucani, Van Tang

Board, 16th November 2015: Dana Caron, Dean Outerson, Finbarr O’Connor, John Casella, Joop Van Delden, PE Krin Charnmaytesakul, P Narain Suradejvibul, Ravi Sehgal, Tim Cornwall

TRF, 18th November 2015: Finbarr O’Connor, Jon Plate, PP Krit Wongsaengarunsri, PP Ole Madsen, Dr. Pichai Kanivichaporn, Rod Vergara, Rui Belo, PP Vichai Tantrativut, Yod Tantianunanont

CLUB CALENDARFriday, 4th December 2015 – Korn Chatikavanij, topic “What’s the future for Thailand“– Delegations of other Bangkok Rotary Clubs to RCBS. Sister Louise with Xmas Gifts for sale – Ladies Day

Friday, 4th December 2015 – RC Pathumwan Celebration Dinner, 32nd Anniversary, Montien Hotel from 18.00 pm.

Friday, 11th December 2015 – NO MEETING – Bike for Dad

Thursday, 17th December 2015 – RCBS Annual Xmas Party at PP Don Lavoie’s Residence from 18.00 pm – details “TBC“

Friday, 18th December 2015 – Fellowship

Friday, 25th December 2015 – NO MEETING – Christmas Day

Friday, 8th January 2016 – Annual New Year’s Predictions

Friday,15th January 2016 – Rtn Robert Denning – Title “TBC”

Friday, 22nd January 2016 – Tim Beaumont “The Beaumont Foundation“

Friday, 29th January 2016 – Peace Fellows from the Rotary Peace Center at Chulalongkorn University.

Friday, 5th February 2016 – Rtn Roy Howard – “The Birth of Thai Airways International“

Thursday, 11th February 2016 – Paul Harris Dinner at Grand Hyatt Erawan from 6.00 pm – further details “TBC”

Friday, 12th February 2016 – Urgatsaa (Uma Budd) “A Story of a Nomad Girl“

Friday, 19th February 2016 – “TBC”

Friday, 26th February 2016 – Ratanawadee Hemniti (Danish Ambassador’s Wife) “Life as a Diplomat’s Wife“ – Ladies Day

Friday, 4th March 2016 – Veronica Taylor “Natural Disasters Recovery“

Friday, 11th March 2015 – Oxford Style Debate “UK : In or Out of Europe“

Friday,17th March 2016 – KIDS DAY OUT

Friday, 18th March 2016 – Classification Interviews – “TBC”

For more information about Bangkok South events contact: rotarybangkoksouth.org/calendar-of-events

“SOUTH MOUTH”QUOTES FROM SAM GOLDWYN, FILM PRODUCER

A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.Anybody who goes to see a psychiatrist ought to have his head examinedA hospital is no place to be sickYou fail to overlook the crucial pointOur comedies are not to be laughed atI don’t think anybody should write his autobiography until after he’s deadI’ll give you a definite maybeA bachelor’s life is no life for a single manInclude me out