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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Luiz Augusto Barroso President
The role The role The role The role ofofofof hydroshydroshydroshydros andandandand RESRESRESRES
COP 22, COP 22, COP 22, COP 22, MarrakechMarrakechMarrakechMarrakech, , , , NovemberNovemberNovemberNovember 2016201620162016
Ricardo Gorini
Director
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
• Among other issues, the Brazilian NDC will aim to:
• Achieve an estimated 45% share of renewables in the energy matrix by 2030;
• Obtain at least a 66% share of hydropower in electricity generation by 2030, not
considering self-produced electricity;
• Expand the use of renewable energy sources (RES) other than hydropower in the
total energy mix to between 28% to 33% by 2030;
• In other words, the Brazilian NDC recognizes that hydropower plays an important
role to boost RES in the country
• Same philosophy of the Chilean 2050 Energy plan, for example
• This presentation will discuss why hydropower is key to leverage RES and paths
for a sustainable hydro development in the country
Background: the Brazilian NDC…Background: the Brazilian NDC…Background: the Brazilian NDC…Background: the Brazilian NDC……and the role of hydro power to boost RES penetration…and the role of hydro power to boost RES penetration…and the role of hydro power to boost RES penetration…and the role of hydro power to boost RES penetration
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
• Installed capacity of the Brazilian power system: 150,000 MW
• Hydroelectric share (91 GW): 61% of installed capacity
• Hydro plants located in several river basins with significant storage capacity
• Cascaded hydro system with multiple ownership
Hydro development in BrazilHydro development in BrazilHydro development in BrazilHydro development in Brazil
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Owner:
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
HydrosHydrosHydrosHydros must must must must dealdealdealdeal withwithwithwith inflowinflowinflowinflow variabilityvariabilityvariabilityvariability
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5,000
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45,000
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9Apr
-09
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-09
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GW
h
Average flowsAverage flows
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia 5
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10,000
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0Oct-
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Feb-
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-11
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11Aug
-11
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Dec-1
1
GW
h............andandandand inflowinflowinflowinflow uncertaintyuncertaintyuncertaintyuncertainty
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
How to deal with hydro inflow uncertainty?How to deal with hydro inflow uncertainty?How to deal with hydro inflow uncertainty?How to deal with hydro inflow uncertainty?
1. Portfolio effect:
diversification of basins
2. Transmission network
3. Hydro storage has a key
role: store water in wet
seasons for utilization in
the dry season (or dry
years)
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
COP 22
2016
SmallSmallSmallSmall HydroHydroHydroHydro (P ≤ 50 MW, A ≤ 3km2)
Installed Cap: 5.700 MW
Potential: 18.000 MW
A large fraction of the Brazilian
yet-to-be-developed hydro
potential is from small hydro.
Wind Power Wind Power Wind Power Wind Power Installed Cap: 10.000 MW
Potential: Above 300.000 MW
Relative newcomer technology,
but most competitive in recent
auctions.
RES have added a lot to this RES have added a lot to this RES have added a lot to this RES have added a lot to this lanscapelanscapelanscapelanscape…………
BiomassBiomassBiomassBiomassInstalled Cap: 12.900 MW
Potential: 53.000 MW
Now a days a large fraction of
the sugarcane bagasse is wasted
in low-pressure boilers.
Solar PVSolar PVSolar PVSolar PVInstalled Cap: 34 MW
Potential: No limit
A bet for the future as the
radiation indices are high all over
the country.
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
• RES are smaller scale projects
• Diversifies construction (and other) risks
• Smaller construction time
• Important attribute to “hedge” against load growth uncertainty
• Resource potential with geographical complementarity
• Location close to load centers
• Wide range of investors
• Local capital
• Investment (foreign) funds
A A A A portfolio of portfolio of portfolio of portfolio of hydroshydroshydroshydros and renewables combines economies of scale and flexibilityand renewables combines economies of scale and flexibilityand renewables combines economies of scale and flexibilityand renewables combines economies of scale and flexibility
And today Brazil has a renewable portfolioAnd today Brazil has a renewable portfolioAnd today Brazil has a renewable portfolioAnd today Brazil has a renewable portfolio
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
And renewables are competitive in BrazilAnd renewables are competitive in BrazilAnd renewables are competitive in BrazilAnd renewables are competitive in Brazil
Brazil: wind prices have fallen 60%60%60%60% from the Proinfa* times, wind capacity has risen 10101010----foldfoldfoldfold
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*PROINFA was the first RES support mechanism in the country (2002) and based on a feed-in tariff (administratively set). Proinfa is now over.
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
ExampleExampleExampleExample: : : : windwindwindwind capacitycapacitycapacitycapacity evolutionevolutionevolutionevolution
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• 10 GW of wind capacity operating, additional 8 GW under construction
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
WhyWhyWhyWhy are RES are RES are RES are RES competitivecompetitivecompetitivecompetitive in in in in BrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil????
• In most coutries worldwide, renewables require subsidies
• 120 billions in Germany, for example
• Reasons:
• Variability in energy production
• Wind + solar: ± 3 GW (15 min), ± 8 GW ( 60 min) in Germany
• Back up with thermal generation
• Difficulties to build transmission facilities
• Example: Midwest in the US
WhyWhyWhyWhy waswaswaswas itititit differentdifferentdifferentdifferent in in in in BrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil????
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
IsIsIsIs thethethethe windwindwindwind productionproductionproductionproduction variabiiltyvariabiiltyvariabiiltyvariabiilty smallersmallersmallersmaller in in in in BrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil????
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Today: 1000 MW ramp needed in 1 hour
Difference of 900 MW between forecasted and actual wind
production values
Fonte: ONS
NO
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Answer: storage + transmissionAnswer: storage + transmissionAnswer: storage + transmissionAnswer: storage + transmission
• Hydro reservoirs make up for production variability of wind/solar
and seasonality of biomass
• Requires a robust transmission network, which was already build
for the hydros
• The “energy warehouses” of hydroplants were essential for the
economic feasibility of renewable energy sources in Brazil
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Bonus: production complementarity between hydro, wind, Bonus: production complementarity between hydro, wind, Bonus: production complementarity between hydro, wind, Bonus: production complementarity between hydro, wind, biomass and solarbiomass and solarbiomass and solarbiomass and solar
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
These complementarities have been recognized These complementarities have been recognized These complementarities have been recognized These complementarities have been recognized internationally and recently (2016) enlightened…internationally and recently (2016) enlightened…internationally and recently (2016) enlightened…internationally and recently (2016) enlightened…
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Available at: www.irena.org
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
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)TroubleTroubleTroubleTrouble in Paradisein Paradisein Paradisein Paradise: : : : prohibitionprohibitionprohibitionprohibition of of of of reservoirsreservoirsreservoirsreservoirs
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
ToToToTo makemakemakemake thingsthingsthingsthings worseworseworseworse… … … … supersupersupersuper runrunrunrun of of of of thethethethe riverriverriverriver hydroshydroshydroshydros
• The lack of storage did not result from a technical-economical optimization of the
projects but from social-environmental constraints
• The three largest new hydro projects in Brazil – Santo Antônio, Jirau and Belo
Monte, with 18 GW of installed capacity, are run of the river plants
• This lack of storage will have important implications in the system, since the
variability of inflows to these plants is much greater than those of the existing
plants
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
ExampleExampleExampleExample: Madeira : Madeira : Madeira : Madeira riverriverriverriver hydrohydrohydrohydro plantsplantsplantsplants
0
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Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez
GW
h
Inflow energy in the wettest months is 7,5
times greater than the one of the driest
month
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
0
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Jan Fev Mar Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov Dez
GW
h
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Inflow energy in the wettest months is 20
times (!) greater than the one of the driest
month
ExampleExampleExampleExample: Belo Monte : Belo Monte : Belo Monte : Belo Monte hydrohydrohydrohydro plantplantplantplant
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
ConsequenceConsequenceConsequenceConsequence: : : : lesslesslessless flexibilityflexibilityflexibilityflexibility + + + + thermalthermalthermalthermal dispatchdispatchdispatchdispatch
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• Perspectives of the worsening of the situation in the future:
• Wind variability in extreme events in 2016= 1 GW
• Perspective is that in 2030 the wind variability may reach 8 GW
8,000
9,000
10,000
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15,000
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19,000
MW
h/h
Despacho termelétrico SIN Média móvel semanal
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
What can be done?What can be done?What can be done?What can be done?
• Construction of cost-effective controllable (dispatchable) generation
• Current solution in the world, see the many discussions held here in Marrakech
• RES can indeed be flexible in different time intervals
• Examples include biomass, small hydros & wind, but scale is an issue
• Hydros has been in the wish-list of the international community
• Investment in storage
• Batteries to complement (back up) distributed RES production variability
• Cost of batteries is still an issue to upscale it to mainstream
• Again, hydro has been in the wish list of the international community
• Pumped storage hydros - to complement (back up) mainstream RES production variability – has been the way in many countries
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Example: ChileExample: ChileExample: ChileExample: Chile
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Example: USExample: USExample: USExample: US
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Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Revisiting the discussion of hydro developmentRevisiting the discussion of hydro developmentRevisiting the discussion of hydro developmentRevisiting the discussion of hydro development
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• The future of the electricity industry is towards a low-carbon matrix and RES are
key to meet this goal
• Renewable portfolios will be key to this target and hydros are RES are
complementary, not competitors, as resources towards a low-carbon Brazilian
energy matrix
• Hydro development in Brazil needs to be revisited and carried out under a
coordinated approach with the following long-term guidelines:
• Hydro development as a driving force for sustainability, inclusiveness and
social/environmental development
• Coordination between the public, private, civil society and academic sectors
to implement sustainability standards for hydro development
• Local population benefiting (economically) from the hydro development
• Communication is everything
• In other words, build the right dams, build the dams right
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Ministério de Minas e Energia
COP 22
2016
Avenida Rio Branco, 1 - 11o andar
20090-003 - Centro - Rio de Janeiro
http://www.epe.gov.br/
Luiz Augusto Barroso
President
Ricardo Gorini
Director
E-mail: [email protected]
Telefone: + 55 (21) 3512 - 3100
Twitter: @EPE_Brasil
Facebook: EPE.Brasil