SURVEY OF SURVEYS – BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEYS

CARRIED OUT BY CSO OF POLAND

HUBERT STEFANIAK

CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE OF POLAND

BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEYS IN CSO OF POLAND

• JUNE 1992 – INDUSTRY

• JULY 1993 – CONSTRUCTION

• OCTOBER 1993 – RETAIL TRADE

• 1999 – INVESTMENTS IN INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION

• JANUARY 2003 – SERVICES

SURVEY OF SURVEYS – RESPONSE RATE

SAMPLE SIZE MONTHLY QUESTIONNAIRES

COMPLETED IN JULY 2016

SURVEY OF SURVEYS’

QUESTIONNAIRES

COMPLETED IN JULY 2016

RESPONSE RATE

INDUSTRY ~ 3 500 3 335 1 116 34%

CONSTRUCTION ~ 5 000 4 286 1 196 28%

RETAIL TRADE ~ 5 100 4 231 1 112 26%

SERVICES - TOTAL ~ 4 400 3 878 1 091 28%

SURVEY OF SURVEYS – QUESTIONS …

Q1: WHO COMPLETES THE QUESTIONNAIRES?

Q2: DO YOU ENCOUNTER ANY TECHNICAL PROBLEMS WHILE FILLING IN QUESTIONNAIRE?

Q3: DOES ANSWERING ANY OF THE QUESTIONS CONTAINED IN QUESTIONNAIRE CAUSE PROBLEMS?

Q4: DO YOU ABSTRACT FROM SEASONAL VARIATIONS WHILE ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS?

Q5: WHAT DO YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE ASSESSING ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMPANY?

Q6: WHAT IS A TIME SPAN YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE ASSESSING CHANGES IN CURRENT PRODUCTION/SALE?

Q7: WHAT IS A TIME SPAN YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE FORECASTING PRODUCTION/SALE?

Q8: WHILE CHOOSING “NO CHANGE” VARIANT YOU MEAN FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RANGE OF…?

Q9: WHAT DO YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE INDICATING FACTORS LIMITING ACTIVITY OF YOUR COMPANY?

Q10: DO YOU MAKE USE OF CSO’S PUBLICATIONS CONCERNING BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEYS?

Q1: WHO COMPLETES THE QUESTIONNAIRES ON BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEYS IN YOUR COMPANY?

22.5

27.6 27.4

12.9

3.8 5.8

Industry

25.1

21.6

18.1

18.9

11.9

4.4

Construction

24.6

28.1 19.0

10.4

14.6

3.3

Retail trade

22.0

28.4 22.2

13.3

10.2

3.9

Services - Total

member of themanagement board

head of financialdepartment

employee of financialdepartment

administrative employee

employee of externalaccounting office

other person

% of respondents

Q4: DO YOU ABSTRACT FROM SEASONAL VARIATIONS WHILE ANSWERING THE QUESTIONS CONTAINED IN QUESTIONNAIRE?

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

YES

NO

I do not know

Seasonal variations areirrelevant for my business

activity

% of respondents Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

CSO’s BTS questionnaires: „Answers should be given by abstracting from seasonal variations that is taking no account of changes characteristic for this period of the year.”

SEASONAL VARIATIONS

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

70

85

100

115

130

145

160

Construction/assembly production - quantitative and qualitative data, not seasonally adjusted.

construction and assembly production previous year=100 (constant prices) current production at the domestic market

Q5: WHAT DO YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE ASSESSING ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE COMPANY?

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

general economic situation of yourcompany

general economic situation in yourbranch

general economic situation incountry

financial situation of your company

level of sale of goods/services

% of respondents Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

CSO’s BTS questionnaire: „How do you assess the general economic situation of your company?”

Q6: WHAT IS A TIME SPAN YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE ASSESSING CHANGES IN CURRENT PRODUCTION/SALE?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

previous month

previous few months

analogous month of the lastyear

different benchmark is used

% of respondents Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

CSO’s BTS questionnaire: „How does construction/assembly production at the domestic market change?”

Q7: WHAT IS A TIME SPAN YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE FORECASTING PRODUCTION/SALE?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

next month

next 2 months

next 3 months

other

% of respondents Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

CSO’s BTS questionnaire: „How will construction/assembly production at the domestic market change over the next three months?”

Q8: WHILE CHOOSING “NO CHANGE” VARIANT CONCERNING PRODUCTION/SALE/EMPLOYMENT AND PRICES YOU MEAN FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RANGE OF…?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

up to 1%

up to 5%

up to 10%

% of respondents

Production/Sale

0 10 20 30 40 50

up to 1%

up to 5%

up to 10%

% of respondents

Employment

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

up to 1%

up to 5%

up to 10%

% of respondents

Prices

Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

Q9: WHAT DO YOU TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION IN THE FIRST PLACE WHILE INDICATING FACTORS LIMITING ACTIVITY OF YOUR COMPANY?

0 10 20 30 40

payments

contributions on pension, disability, sickness

contributions on labour fund etc.

advances on payroll tax

costs of employee training

costs of commuting, accommodation of employees

costs of recruitment

others

% respondents

Costs of labour

Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

0 10 20 30 40 50

CIT income tax

PIT income tax

VAT

excise taxes

duties

others

% respondents

High payments to state revenue

Industry Construction Retail trade Services - Total

SUMMARY AND PLANS FOR THE FUTURE

• USEFUL RESEARCH TOOL LETTING KNOW THE OPINION OF RESPONDENTS ON BTS QUESTIONNAIRES

• CONCLUSIONS DRAWN FROM THIS SURVEY WILL HELP TO PREPARE QUESTIONNAIRES MORE FRIENDLY

TO THE RESPONDENTS

• RECEIVED RESPONSES WILL ENHANCE QUALITY OF BTS SURVEYS’ ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

• SOME QUESTIONS AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GIVEN TO THE RESPONDENTS MAY REQUIRE

BETTER EXPLANATION

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!