The role of models in supporting river basin

management

Michiel Blind

Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management

Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment/RIZA

Contents

• Who am I? The projects I am involved in• The role of models (ref: abstract)• The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position

paper)• Open research questions• Links to other topics• Technological perspectives• EU

Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 1: HarmonIT (FP5) -

• HarmonIT develops a model linkage interface standard: OpenMI– Speeds up linking models to form integrated

systems– Allows selecting linking the best tools– Allows re-use of generic tools– Makes research in linkage and scaling possible

• Presentation Roger Moore

Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 2: HarmonRiB (FP5) -

• HarmonRiB researches– Integrated uncertainty assessment of data/model

systems, including socio-economics

• HarmoniRiB creates– A virtual laboratory for modelling studies, in which

as many data as possible are available, including associated uncertainties

Who am I: Projects I am involved in- 3: Harmoni-CA (FP5) –

Harmoni-CAwill produce

GUIDANCE AND METHODOLOGIESbased on

SUPPORT AND CONSENSUSachieved by

involving science, policy and stakeholders

synthesising available knowledge

establishing broad dialogues

and tuning projects

Harmoni-CA Objectives

• create a forum for communication, information exchange and harmonisation of ICT-tools for integrated river basin management

• support framework for harmonised tools, incl. guidance

• stimulate proper development and use of tools

Organisational structure

WP1:

Establishment of a communication forum / Harmoni-CA management

WP5:

Integrated assessment and the science-policy interface

WP

6:

Co-

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-act

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WP

2:

Too

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WP

3:

Gu

idan

ce d

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men

ts

for

rive

r b

asin

m

odel

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WP

4:

Join

t u

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Formal CatchMod

The (FP5) CatchMod cluster: co-ordinated development and implementation of tools for the WFD

EuroHarp

BMW

Harmoni-QuA

Harmoni--CA

ClimeHarmoni-

RiB

Harmon-IT

Temp-QSim

Harmoni-CoP

TransCat

TizsaRiver

CatchMod is not

exclusive

MULINO&

Other EUresearch

WorldWide

Initiatives

NationalInitiatives

Harmoni-CA activities this year

September 16-17

Technical workshopsAdvancing project interactions in Catchment

Modelling!

November 4-5

Harmoni-CA Forum“harmonise river basin management tools and knowlegde for the implementation of the water

framework directive.”

The role of models (ref: abstract)

A Classification (of many)• Short term operational

– Low uncertainty

• Mid term planning, management and immediate problem solving– Relatively uncertain

• long term: long-term scenario analysis – High Uncertainty

The role of models II

The role of models very much depends on– Availability and quality of data– Complexity and spatial scale of the problem– Political urgency and involvement – Moment within the planning cycle – Level of (public) participation– …

The models may be used in a quantitative or more qualitative fashion, for supporting dialogue or making actual decisions

The ICT needs of the WFD (ref: position paper)

• WFD requires selecting an appropriate set of measures, with pre-requisite to be:– broadly supported (Stakeholder participation)– cost effective– effectively reach a ‘good ecological status’

This requires a planning process

Collaborative planning processin integrated river basin

management

Planning process(e.g. WFD)

Problem definition

Solution

Start

Implementation

Interaction &communication

Information:Data & Modelling

Quality

assu

rance

Data system building

Application

Selection of building blocks

Adaptation

Tuning the system

THE WFD

TOOL?

Problems

DIFFERENT...eco-zones

...issues...users

...preferences...languages...ambitions

....NOT FLEXIBLE

NOT INTERACTIVE

Primary ICT & Modelling problem“Flexibility”

• Since…– WFD system needs to provide information to all

stakeholders on time for the planning process – System may drastically change due to new insights

& needs during the process (stakeholder demands!)

• It is required that…– Linkages of information sources need to be

standardized ⇒ IT interface for models and databases! Architecture!

• HarmonIT project develops OpenMI, the open modelling interface & architecture

“Secondary” problems If you have flexibility, the possibilities

increase and related problems are:

• Selection of sets of models to link• Overview and access to models• Overview and access to model data• Software and data quality assurance• (Meta-) data standards• Common data-models• Quality assurance and consistency guidelines• Methods for communicating with the non-

specialist

Gaps which need to be filled in, or a currently being filled in

by various CatchMod projects!Limited to model related issues

• Selection of sets of models to link• Overview and access to models• Overview and access to model data• Software and data quality assurance• (Meta-) data standards• Common data-models• Quality assurance and consistency guidelines• Methods for communicating to the non-specialist• Consistent view on proper scenario-development• The consistent integrated use of all types of (foresight)

models for long term scenario analysis• Pan European to global network for information and

tools for scenario development!

Links to other topics

• Modelling and information systems are becoming more and more important in solving complex, international or global problems.

• Modelling environments should be seen as infrastructure, which need to be maintained and developed irrespective of the actual topic

• A key feature must be that development of dedicated (research or policy) topical systems keeps up with scientific ideas and policy development (policy cycle).

• CatchMod thus feeds to almost all topics

Technological perspectivessupporting solving the Global Water

Crisis

• HarmonIT ⇒ presentation Roger Moore• CatchMod & modelling in general

– Consensus on good modelling and transparent model-based research may help

• To achieve consensus on the problems, resulting in global (political) awareness and acceptance (e.g. IPCC)

• To select cost-effective sets of measures• To embed knowledge

– But be aware• Political acceptance of modelling appears to be

decreasing (for many reasons),• Consensus on good modelling and transparent

model-based research may lead to ignorance!

5th ministerial conferenceEnvironment of Europe - Declaration

• Information from (modelling) systems is vital for a common understanding and feeds preferably into a (international) dialogue-decide-deliver management process (as opposed to a decide – announce – defend process!) [par 14 and many others]

• Socio-economic integration improves cross-boundary negotiation possibilities [par. 19, 37-41]

• CatchMod = par 20 (environmental information)• Integrated modelling supports sustainable water

management in general, especially when effects of different solution strategies have been captured in models (par 50-52)

• Dedicated interactive modelling/information systems can play an important part in education and public awareness (par 58)

• …

EU water initiative

• 2.1: Improve co-ordination and co-operation– Models & information improve dialogue

• 2.1: Increase the efficiency of existing aid flows– Models & information allow efficiency assessments

of plans

• 3.2 & 3.3: Models & information improve dialogue thus support co-operation in general– Language problems in tools need to be solved

• CatchMod should spread it’s wings (NIS etc)!

Harmoni-CA activities this year

September 16-17

Technical workshopsAdvancing project interactions in Catchment

Modelling!

Registration has startedwww.harmoni-ca.info