the role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress
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The role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress. Dr. Derk Loorbach 10-02-2012. The evaluation challenge of transitions. Sustainable development requires non-linear, unpredictable, unmanageable change - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The role of evaluation in transitionsfrom evaluation to valuing progress
Dr. Derk Loorbach
10-02-2012
Dr. Derk Loorbach
10-02-2012
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
The evaluation challenge of transitions
• Sustainable development requires non-linear, unpredictable, unmanageable change
• Requires insight in transitional dynamics and ways to stimulate these
• Policy evaluation is perhaps useless, transitions require normative forward-looking evaluation
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transitions
fundamental change of structure, culture and fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systempractices in a societal (sub)system
– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms
– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines
– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation
Shared discourse and language for multi-actor Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processeslearning and innovation processes
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes
Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices
Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition phases
Sustainable society?
health care
energywaste
waterconstruction
mobility finance
predevelopment
take-off
acceleration
stabilisation
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Source: Stockholm Resilience Center and DRIFT, 2010
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Fundamental issues
• Something new (innovation) is something else than something improved
• Prediction is impossible, but insight is necessary
• Sustainability (breakthroughs) come from multiple domains
It is more about impact and process than outcome and output
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition management
Monitoring, evaluating
and learning
Developing images
coalitions and
transition-agendas
Mobilizing actors and executing projects and
experiments
Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and
envisioning
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Role of evaluation and monitoring
• Support learning about the transition
• Integrated part of the governance cycle (4-5yrs)
• So far mainly experimentally applied at program level
• Focus on patterns, dyanmics, pathways, upscaling and framing
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Rotterdam Climate Initiativeparticipatory monitoring
• RCI program: 50% CO2 reduction in 2025– 80 million budget– Dozens of projects
• Reflection role Drift– Participatory TM based evaluation– Stepwise transitioning of the program– Discussing goals, strategy and actions
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Goals transitionmonitoring
• Awareness (What are we doing?)
• Reflection (are we doing the right thing?)
• Reorientation (which vision and goals?)
• Strategy development
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Framework
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
From goals to pathways
2010 2014 2020 2025
CO2 reduction goals
- 8 Mton 12 Mton 34 Mton
CO2 absolute 30 Mton 28 Mton 22 Mton 12 Mton
mob built Ind mob built Ind mob built Ind mob built Ind
Transitionindicators/Subgoals
0,35 839 kton
65,6 0,30 800 kton
60,0 0,22 600 kton
50,0
0,14 400 kton
32,5
Processindicator 1 0,02%
9,7%
0,2 (R)
10%
20% 0,15 30% 40% 0,12
50% 100%
0,1
Processindicator 2 0,02%
2% 0,3 (C)
10%
80% 0, 3 30% 100%
0,22
50% 100%
0,15
Processindicator 3 0 0,5 (E)
300 0,5 2000
0, 35
4200
0,25
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Transition ‘evaluation’
• Using the transition perspective to identify societal dynamics and policy-society interaction
• Tool to stuimulate collective ‘framing’ and ‘discourse’
• Intsrument to ‘transitionize’ existing policy
• Instrument to ‘measure’ transition and impact of transition governance?
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Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Key challenges/questions
• Multiple influences, interaction and interventions that cannot be quantified or correlated
• How to map patterns and impacts in a way that they provide a basis for governance
• What can transition monitoring learn from environmental evaluation
• Does transition evaluation imply a transition in evaluation?