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THE ROLE OF ENERGY PROSUMERS
IN THE TRANSITION OF THE FINNISH
ENERGY SYSTEM TOWARDS 100%
RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
Michael Child, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer
LUT University
June 12, 2019
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Background
Methods
Results
Summary
Agenda
3
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Energy prosumers may have an important role in a new era of renewable energy
They offer the energy system flexibility through distributed generation and storage of electricity and heat
They may also present disruptive challenges to energy systems, specifically to power systems and energy markets
Finland offers a good case study of a region where energy security and cost are critical social and economic parameters
Visions of the future can be used to shape present decisions
These visions often omit important social dimensions of energy systems
This work seeks to quantify the optimal level of prosumerism and discuss its implications
Background
4
Total estimated installed net capacities in 2015
Total projected installed net capacities in 2050 based on
100% RE.
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Background
Methods
Results
Summary
Agenda
5
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Division of the Finnish
energy system into 7
unique and interconnected
regions
This accounts for the fact
that resource availability
and energy demands are
not uniform throughout the
country
Population distribution is
also not uniform
Methods - Regional modelling of Finland
6
FI-NW: Lapland
FI-NE: North Ostrobothnia,
Kainuu
FI-CW: Tavastia Proper,
Pirkanmaa, Päijänne Tavastia,
Central Finland, South
Ostrobothnia, Ostrobothnia,
Central Ostrobothnia
FI-CE: Southern Savonia,
Northern Savonia, North
Karelia
FI-SW: Southwest Finland,
Satakunta, Åland Islands
FI-SE: Kymenlaakso, South
Karelia
FI-S: Uusimaa
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
The LUT Energy System Transition Model includes the power, heating
and transport sectors modelled for an entire year in hourly resolution
Methods - LUT Energy System Transition
Model
7
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Demand for electricity increases significantly with the adoption of highly efficient
electric vehicles
Heat sector demands increase with population growth, but large efficiency gains
through electrification are also seen (e.g. use of heat pumps)
Methods – Energy demands
8
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Biomass is not evenly distributed throughout the country and there are severalcategories that must be considered
Maximum capacities for wind and solar resource use are based on area restrictions and levels of social acceptance
FI-S has highest population and energy demands but lowest resource potential due to limited area
Methods – Energy resources
9
Annual potential (TWh)
RegionMSW
Solid waste
Biomass
Solid waste
Biomass
Solid residues
Biomass
Biogas
FI-NW 0.08 17.71 4.73 0.36
FI-NE 0.23 10.90 5.58 1.26
FI-CW 0.74 12.58 9.56 4.83
FI-CE 0.26 9.32 7.15 1.35
FI-SW 0.34 3.83 4.99 2.59
FI-SE 0.14 2.00 1.86 0.84
FI-S 0.75 1.74 2.62 3.59
Total 2.55 58.08 36.50 14.84
Maximum capacity (GW)
RegionPV
optimally titled
PV
single-axis
CSP
field
Wind
onshore
Wind
offshore
Hydro
Run-of-river
FI-NW 417.0 417.0 834.1 31.1 2.0 1.8
FI-NE 256.6 256.6 513.1 19.2 2.0 1.3
FI-CW 296.2 296.2 592.5 22.1 2.0 0.4
FI-CE 219.5 219.5 439.1 16.4 0.0 0.3
FI-SW 90.2 90.2 180.3 6.7 2.0 0.2
FI-SE 47.1 47.1 94.3 3.5 2.0 0.7
FI-S 40.9 40.9 81.9 3.1 2.0 0.0
Total 1367.6 1367.6 2735.3 102.1 12.0 4.71
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Background
Methods
Results
Summary
Agenda
10
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Primary Energy Demand
11
Key insights:
Primary energy decreases as fossil fuels are phased out, but increases at the
end of the transition due to demands from storage and synthetic fuel production
Higher levels of electrification lead to higher overall energy efficiency
The role of biomass increases throughout the transition
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Electricity sector
12
Key insights:
Wind and solar PV provide the backbone of the transition
Solar PV prosumers contribute 54% of PV capacity and 26% of final electricity
Solar PV prosumers do not affect peak load in winter
Dispatchable biomass and synthetic gas have important balancing roles
The nature of CHP begins to change but hydropower maintains its key role
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Electricity sector
13
Key insights:
Fuel and GHG costs decrease throughout the transition
Primary generation costs drop through adoption of low cost wind and solar PV
These lead to greatly reduced levelized cost of electricity
Costs of storage, curtailment and transmission become noticeable
Capital costs increase marginally at first and then stabilise
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Heat sector
14
Key insights:
Biomass and electricity become the main heat resources as fossil fuels are
phased out of the energy system
Less heat is produced in traditional CHP plants, especially low temperature DH
Electric heating and heat pumps increase in significance
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Heat sector
15
Key insights:
The cost of heat remains relatively stable throughout the transition
The cost structure changes as production modes change
Storage of heat is a new cost, but offset by lack of fossil fuel and GHG costs
A shift to lower cost centralized heat production based on electrification and
greater use of biomass
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Transport sector
16
Key insights:
Demands represent a rather optimistic development of transport sector
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Transport sector
17
Key insights:
Despite increasing transport demands, there is lower final energy demand
Primarily due to electrification of many modes of transport
Fossil-based liquid fuels replaced by biofuels and synthetic fuels
Hydrogen becomes an important energy carrier
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Transport sector
18
Key insights:
Road and rail costs decrease with electrification
Air and marine costs increase with the shift to new fuels and then stabilize at
a similar cost level as the current situation due to low cost electricity
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Storage
19
Key insights:
The relevance of storage increases over the transition
Electric storage becomes prominent, possibly in the form of EV batteries
Prosumer batteries contribute 6 TWh
Gas storage has a prominent role as seasonal storage
Hydrogen and CO2 storage will also be needed
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Inter-regional transmission
20
Key insights:
Transmission between regions is a major source of flexibility
Grid peaks will be related more to supply (especially wind) than consumption
Prosumers affect amount of energy transmitted, but not power capacity
This may result in disruption to traditional energy companies and energy
markets in the absence of appropriate regulation
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – GHG emissions
21
Key insights:
The majority of heat and power emissions are eliminated by 2030
Transport emission reduction will take longer unless more aggressive action is
taken to speed up the transition
EU aim for 100% emission-free vehicles by the early 2030s can help
New Finnish government aim of net zero emissions by 2035 could also be met
International aviation and marine modes would need special measures to achieve
defossilisation in a faster time frame
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Results – Costs
22
Key insights:
Overall levelized cost of energy decreases over the transition
Capital investments will be needed, but fuel and emission costs will be lower
Many of these capital costs will represent domestic investment and jobs
Total annual system costs remain rather stable and appear affordable
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
Background
Methods
Results
Summary
Agenda
23
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
New forms of energy supply will be seen in the future
− Wind energy, solar energy, and distributed energy prosumers
− CHP has a reduced role
Energy storage will become less expensive and more common
− Batteries for short-term storage (possibly EV batteries)
− Power-to-Gas, Power-to-Liquids and TES for longer-term storage
There will be new patterns of supply and demand due to prosumers
− This may be disruptive to traditional power and heat companies
− Energy from the grid will be lower, but peak power will remain high
Prosumers may still have more to offer in the form of heat, Vehicle-to-Grid connections, smart charging and demand response
Achieving the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement appears feasible and economically competitive with a transition towards 100% RE
A vision of the future of energy can help a variety of actors develop expectations of what life could be like in the future, and then act accordingly in the present
Further discourse is needed to consider the desirability of such a vision and howit can best be implemented
Summary
24
Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
25
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Constructing Social Futures – Sustainability, Responsibility and Power
June 12-13, 2019, Turku, Finland
