Photo 25.51” x 10.31”

Positionx: 8.53”, y: .18”

Photo 14.2” x 10.31”

Positionx: 4.36”, y: .18”

The REDD Game:

A didactic tool for designing effective, efficient and equitable policies to deliver REDD in Bolivia -Lykke Andersen

The primary objective of the project is to create a visually attractive, user-friendly, computer-based analytical tool, the ‘REDD Game’. To be used by policy makers, local stakeholders and academics, the Game is envisaged as an innovative tool to explore social, economic and environmental outcomes of alternative policy interventions to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). The user-friendly, intuitive and widely accessible nature of the Game will allow stakeholders of all educational backgrounds to explore the possible impacts of REDD schemes in their communities.

This should result in more informed stakeholders and, in turn, improved policy design and outcomes that are more likely to be fair and effective.

Objectives:

Evidence and information to support the Game will be collected via a number of research methodologies, encompassing economics, anthropology/ethnography, and ecology.

The Game will use “Agent Based Modeling” in order to accurately model heterogeneous agents and heterogeneous impacts.

Methodologies:

Institutions involved:• London School of Economics (UK)• University of Sussex (UK)• School of Oriental & Asian Studies (UK) • Institute for Advanced Development Studies (Bolivia) • Conservation International (Bolivia)

More info: Dr. Lykke E. Andersen (landersen@conservation.org)

Biodiversity, Ecosystem services, Social sustainability and Tipping points in East African drylands (BEST)

Katherine Homewood

Biodiversity, Ecosystem services, Social sustainability and Tipping points in East

African drylands (BEST)East African drylands: • open, productive, species-rich → closed, impoverished• What policies/incentives → socially/ environmentally sustainable land use?

Aims:1. Baseline system description 2. Land use decision modelling (extant empirical datasets)3. Simulation models predicting behaviour with economic/ ecological change4. Policy scenario evaluation5. Stakeholder engagement6. Getting research into policy and practice

• Climate change adaptation plans• Planning / budgeting cycles• Best practice business models

Relevance to ESPA call

• Excellence with development impact • Partnership• Innovative concept/ research design• Drylands: poverty, biodiversity decline, climate change impacts• Rapidly evolving: opportunity for impact

• Evidence challenges• ES values:

•Intangible values integrated at level of land use decisions •PWC thresholds tip choices

• Drivers of adverse trends/ key factors enabling reversion• Outcomes of policy interventions: empirical and simulated• Poverty alleviation: access, mobility, distributional/governance issues

• Themes• Biodiversity and ecosystem services

•Contribution to livelihoods •Potential values/benefits

• Political economy•Distribution•Tradeoffs

Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach

ESPA Workshop, Edinburgh, 4-6 October 2010

John DearingTerry Dawson, Richard Treves (Southampton)

Paul Sillitoe (Durham)

Weiguo Zhang (East China Normal University, Shanghai)

Xiangdong Yang (NIGLAS, Academy of Sciences, Nanjing)

Lower Yangtze BasinShanghai

250 km

Which parts of the landscape are particularly resilient to current social and biophysical (e.g. climate) drivers, and which are particularly sensitive?

Within the landscape, which agricultural systems, ecological processes and services are at greatest risk over the next few decades from passing a threshold?

Which new practises can be adopted that would increase food security, local incomes or well being without substantially increasing the risk of ecological failure?

Nanjing

Anhui Province per capita GDP (2009) $2400 (27/31)

9

Self-organisationFeedbacksPaths, Trajectories, TrapsEmergenceNetworksThresholdsAdaptive CycleCollapseResilience

Lower Yangtze basin - nested complex adaptive systems

Compile socio-ecological archives (200 yr)Compile indigenous-traditional knowledgeLocal village (4) - county - basin scalesReconstruct/integrate system interactionsCreate visualisations (Google Earth)System simulations and scenariosParticipatory discussion and feedback

Sustainable managementGeneric regional methodologyVisualisationSystem dynamics/AB modelsDemonstration projectInternational agenda

Just ecosystem management: Linking ecosystem services with poverty alleviation

Thomas Sikor

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

‐ provisioning, regulating, cultural, supporting‐micro, meso, macro scale‐ short, medium or long term; intermittent or cyclical; linear or abrupt

HUMAN WELLBEING

‐ security, basic material for good life, health, good social relations, freedom of choice and action‐stakeholders differentiated by wealth, power, gender, race ...

ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE

‐ distribution of ecosystem services‐ participation in decision making about ecosystem management

Objectives

• Theoretical research– Ecosystem services with multiple stakeholders and socio‐ecological tradeoffs

• Strategic analyses– Critical justice issues in water, health, forests, biodiversity and coastal ecosystems

• Illustrative case studies– Terrestrial ecosystems in Yunnan & Albertine Rift– Coastal ecosystem in Orissa

Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Ecosystems: Implications for Sustainable Growth and Rural

Poverty in China

Wei Zhang

The goal of this study is to improve our understanding of the complex effects of landscape diversity, as driven by land use choices, on the provision of key ES that support agriculture, and how these effects are channeled to human welfare and poverty reduction outcomes in China.

The study will provide evidence and model-based analytical tools to assist with decision making on optimal land uses in agricultural landscapes that explicitly address the effects of ES provision on poverty reduction.

Focus on the ES of biological pest control, plant disease regulation, and pollination

Crucial supporting and regulating services that maintain the stability and profitability of agriculture

Rely on how agricultural ecosystems are managed at the site scale and on the structure, composition, and functioning of the surrounding landscape.

Managing land use in agricultural landscapes to enhance ES offers a vital approach to sustainable agricultural growth and has the potential to contribute to poverty alleviation.

Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Ecosystems: Implications for

Sustainable Growth and Rural Poverty in China

Relevance to the current ESPA Announcement of OpportunityDevelopment impact

High concentration of poverty in agricultural populationThe agricultural ecosystems face the challenge of improving productivity and

sustainability while decreasing their environmental impact and ecosystem degradation.ES management crucial for sustainable agricultural growth and contributes to

poverty alleviation Landscape diversity, as driven by land use choices, affects the functioning of the

ecosystems and the provision of ES

Excellent research Advance our understanding of the complex relationship between landscape diversity,

ES provision, and poverty.New insights on pathways of poverty reduction through ES management as affected

by land uses at the landscape scaleNew ways of interdisciplinary cooperation and system based approach: Consortium

of entomologists/ecologists, geographers, and social scientists

Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Ecosystems: Implications for

Sustainable Growth and Rural Poverty in China

Human Adaptation to Biodiversity Change:Building and Testing Concepts, Methods, and Tools forUnderstanding and Supporting Autonomous Adaptation

Patricia Howard

Human Adaptation to Biodiversity Change:Building and Testing Concepts, Methods, and Tools forUnderstanding and Supporting Autonomous Adaptation

UNIVERSITY OF KENT School of Anthropology and Conservation – Prof. Howard, Lead PIOXFORD UNIVERSITY School of Geography and Environment – Prof. Willis, PI

UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON School of African and Oriental Studies – Prof. Dorward, PIRHODES UNIVERSITY, SOUTH AFRICA, Dept. of Environment (partner) – Prof. Shackleton

ATREE/UNIVERSITY OF BANGALORE (informal partner) – Prof. Uma Shankar

AIMS to DEVELOP, EVALUATE, and REFINE a MULTIDISCIPLINARY CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, METHODS, and TOOLS for characterising and understanding HABC, including:

A) Local biodiversity and ecosystem service information systems and their dynamics, and how these influence adaptation decisions.

B) Local non-economic valuation of biodiversity and related ecosystem services, and its influence on adaptation decisions.

C) The functions of biodiversity and ecosystem services as assets within dynamic livelihood decision-making frameworks and how individuals and groups respond to changes in these assets.

D) Interrelations and feedbacks between human adaptation to perceived changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, and actual change in biodiversity and ecosystems and in the services these provide.

E) The outcomes of the above for poverty and human well-being and for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

F) Impact Aim: To initiate a science-policy network that brings end users into contact to: a) raise awarenessabout the omission of HABC and its significance; b) stimulating complementary research around HABC in different fields; c) promote funding access; and d) disseminate results.

Relevance of HABC to the ESPA Expression of Opportunity

Given pervasive and accelerating change in biodiversity and related ecosystem services, HABC-PFG represents a first phase of what must become a larger Consortium effort to:

A.Understand local biodiversity and related ecosystem service response decisions and outcomes in highly biodiversity dependent societies;B.Analyse and document the social, cultural, and ecological drivers and contextual factors that condition these responses;B.Develop models to help forecast adaptive responses and the outcomes with respect to human well-being and biodiversity in different types of social-ecological systems and scientific and policy protocols and guidelines, as well as methods and tools, to support local adaptation to biodiversity change;C.Consolidate a policy-research network and embed Human Adaptation to Biodiversity Change as a theme in major regional and international policy and science forums.

What a CG would produce:

1. An evidence base from a synthesis of dispersed published and gray literature. 2. An evidence base from multi-disciplinary comparative case study research in two ESPA regions at landscape

scale in sites where alien species invasions provide an adaptive experiment in real time. 3. A robust conceptual framework, tools, models, and indicators that can be applied in concrete situations to

provide information for policy makers and other beneficiaries both for new efforts specifically directed toward supporting HABC, and for integration into existing efforts directed toward climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and poverty alleviation. Methods and tools can also be used by community organisations, NGOs, and other development agents to understand and integrate HABC.

4. Publications, a mitigation/adaptation database and a Wiki, resilience and vulnerability scenarios, multi-agent decision models, and diagnostic instruments, tools, and indicators to inform research and policy-making.

5. Capacity built in developing country partner institutions to understand and support local adaptation to biodiversity change.

Whole-Decision Network Analysis for Complex, Coastal Ecosystems – WD-NACE

John Forrester

Whole‐Decision Network Analysis for Complex, Coastal Ecosystems – WD‐NACE

PIs are: Prof Dave Raffaelli, University of York and Dr Richard Taylor, Stockholm Environment Inst. Oxford Office

Partners include:  Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies CEGIS, BangladeshCORDIO East Africa, andSushilon, Bangladesh

Collaborators include: UNEP, Nairobi and KMFRI 

Project Manager is:  Dr John Forrester, Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York & York Centre for Complex Systems Analysis

ABMs and other analytical & 

perceptual tools 

Local knowledge globallyinterpreted (e.g. ecosystem quality; resource health; resource use; household income)

Global knowledge locally grounded (e.g. Scientific knowledge about ecosystems, GCC, globalisation, and so on)

Data about local knowledge networksData about local power networks

Project output is an applied and theoretical framework that links ecosystem and livelihoods domains of the poor, knowledge networks and decision‐making structures 

Coastal Commons Platform 

Workshops (2011/12)

for further information contact   john.forrester@york.ac.uk

Safeguarding local equity as global values of ecosystem services rise

Kate Schreckenberg

Safeguarding local equity as global values of ecosystem services rise

Overall aim: To promote the contribution of ES to PA based on a common understanding of how changes in the global value of ES lead to changes in local-level equity and the key factors that influence these outcomes.

Specific objective: To develop a conceptual framework that will help REDD+ and PES decision-makers minimise negative impacts on equity and maximise positive impacts.

Partners:Kate Schreckenberg (Southampton); Connie McDermott and Lauren Coad

(Oxford); Melanie McDermott and Trevor Birkenholtz (Rutgers); Sango Mahanty (ANU); Jesse Ribot (Illinois); Denise Humphreys-Bebbington (Clark); Leo Peskett (Overseas Development Institute); Guillermo Navarro (CATIE); Bernhard Mohns and Ben Vickers (RECOFTC); David Mwayafu (Uganda Coalition for Sustainable Development)

Relevance to ESPA callDevelopment impact: By contributing to delivery of REDD+ programmes in an equitable manner

Excellent research:– Development of a rigorous definition of ‘equity’ in the context of ES– Development of a conceptual framework of how local-level equity is affected by

changes in (a) the global value of ES, and (b) the systems by which that value is realised.

– Interdiscplinary work, building on experience from different NR sectors

Policy and decision-making needs: Helping to safeguard ES values of particular importance to the poor through:

– Analysis of policy instruments that can affect equity outcomes of PES/REDD+ schemes

– Synthesis of tools available for assessing different types of equity

Themes: Political economy, forests, biodiversity

Geographic regions: 3-4 case studies in Asia, Africa, Amazonia

Research uptake and impact: Dissemination of information to natural resource decision-makers (local to global), particularly through REDDnet

Capacity-building: of Southern researchers through joint research

What types of investment can most cost‐effectively ensure ecosystem

service provision? A randomized program evaluation

Nigel Asquith 

What is the most effective way to slow deforestation and forest degradation? (PES, community development?)

How can we best increase incomes from collection of non-timber forest products? (supporting individuals or their communities?)

Can education and information provision lead to real changes in behavior that better protects ecosystem services?

(can simply showing the number of fecal coliforms in water and the number of days that kids are out of school with diarrhea cause people to remove cattle away from water courses?)

What is the most effective way to slow growth of sunflower seeds? (darkness, humidity?)

How can we best increase incomes from sales of sandwiches in Sainsbury’s? (color of packaging, position in store?)

Can education improves people’s ability to understand a foreign language? (teaching at night school, on TV?)

Rio Grande Integrated Management Area, Santa Cruz, Bolivia: 5 municipalities, 130 communities, 2800 families (all have been interviewed in baseline data collection)

Conservation Intervention: farmers will volunteer to sign contracts to keep their cattle out of “priority conservation areas”

Treatment conditions:

• A: No payment – Individuals sign up for contracts which provide technical assistance for conservation activity, but not payments. 

• B: Individual‐level – Individuals sign up for contracts, payments are determined by compliance and are paid directly to the individual. At the time of payment individuals have the choice to invest in in‐kind including environmentally friendly inputs

• C: Community‐level – Individuals sign up for contracts, payments are determined by compliance but are paid to the community. The community can choose what to do with the payments, including investment in environmentally friendly compensation. In some cases, they may simply choose to return the payments to the individual. 

• Within the treatments, in 50% of communities  (A1, B1 C1)  compliance rates are discussed only with the individuals concerned , while in 50% of the communities (A0, B0, C0) this information is posted in a public place

Research questions… once we have built capacity about the importance of keeping stream banks cattle free….

• What is the added benefit of paying individuals for keeping cattle off conservation lands (A0+A1 vs B0+B1)? 

• Is it better to pay the community or the individual (B0+B1 vs C0+C1)?

• Do communities develop and enforce informal mechanisms (norms, sanctions) when their payoffs are determined jointly (same as previous + additional measurements)? Do these informal mechanisms require information about individual performance (C0 vs C1)?

• Are individuals more motivated when their actions are observable by others? Does it matter whether they are being paid ?

We will provide the first robust analysis of what works for ESPA and why. Our research will show that if a donor has, e.g. £500,000 to spend on climate change adaptation, whether it will it be most efficient for them, in terms of CO2 sequestered, water supplies protected, or livelihoods enhanced, to invest in local capacity building, information provision or direct payments schemes.

What types of investment can most cost‐effectively ensure ecosystem service provision?  A randomized program evaluation

Fundación Natura Bolivia in association with VU University Amsterdam, UNESCO‐IHE Institute of Water Education, 

and the Sustainability Science Program at Harvard University

Integrated Carbon, Water and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation:

overview

Emily Black

Integrated Carbon, Water and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation: overview

Intensive energy crop cultivation may alleviate poverty through:

BUT... in some circumstances, intensive cultivation of energy crops may increase GHG emissions, threaten ecosystems and ultimately deepen poverty

biofuels from energy plantations

soil carbon sequestration

improvement insoil quality

mitigation of climatechange

recycling ofatmospheric CO2

reduction innet CO2 emissions

Trade in biofuels and bi-productsInvestment in communities

Increased GDPthrough tradingin the internationalcarbon markets

Deforestation forbiofuel production may increase emissions

Water needed for irrigating thirsty crops such as sugarcane may deplete vulnerable resources

Percentage of area under irrigation

The prospect of increasing biofuel production in poor countries raises urgent questions about:-environmental sustainability-physical feedbacks-economic consequences Our project will address these questions for case study regions in Brazil and Ghana in the context of projected climate and demographic change

Integrated Carbon, Water and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation: Modelling Framework

The main components of JULES

Who is involved?Reading: Emily Black, Pier Luigi Vidale, Tom

Osbourne, Andrew Wade, Anne Verhoef, (land surface modeling, climate modeling, hydrological modeling)

CIRED (Paris): Aurelie Mejeans (economic modeling)

Oxford: Dave Frame (carbon trading, policy relevance)

Brazil: colleagues at USP and FUV (sugarcane case study, comparison with Agro-IBIS)

Ghana: colleagues at SRI (sugarcane feasibility case study)