THE RECENTS DYNAMICS OF THE

SWISS FRANC TO EURO EXCHANGE

RATE AND THEIR EFFECTS ON SWISS

EXPORTS

By Jona Manno (4207870)

Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Master in Finance and International Economics

A.A. 2014/2015

International Business Economics

SUMMARY

SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 2

ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................. 3

BRIEF MENTION OF HISTORICAL FACTS ............................................................................................... 3

THE SWISS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .................................................................................................... 5

CURRENT ACCOUNT ......................................................................................................................... 5

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ....................................................................................................................... 6

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT AND THE FINANCIAL ACCOUNT ...................... 7

EXPORTS IN THE SWISS ECONOMY ...................................................................................................... 7

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ....................................................................................... 9

THE INTEREST RATES UNCOVERED PARITY CONDITION .................................................................. 9

DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NATIONAL CURRENCY ........................................................................... 9

EFFECTS OF THE MONETARY POLICY ON THE EXCHANGE RATE.................................................... 10

THE APPRECIATION RISK AND THE CAPPING OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ............................................ 11

THE STRONG REVALUATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN 2007 AND 2011 ...................... 11

THE CAPPING OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ......................................................................................... 12

THE DROPPING OUT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE .................................................................................. 13

THE FUTURE SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................... 14

REFERENCES, BIBLIOGRAPHY AND WEBOGRAPHY ............................................................................ 16

ABSTRACT

The present dissertation sets its aim on the analysis of the dynamics of the exchange rate and of its

repercussions on the export activity in Switzerland in the last years. The focus is put on the effects

on the Swiss Balance of Payments since the adoption, and the later abolishment, of the pegging

regime of the exchange rate with the other currencies, especially with the Euro, set in 2011 by the

Swiss monetary authority, the Swiss National Bank (SNB). With regard to this, some brief mentions

will be made to the most recent history of the Swiss Franc and to its exchange rate with the Euro1;

an analysis of the dynamics of growth of the determining factors of the Swiss Balance of Payments

will be then conducted, followed by some references to the results of some of the most well-known

models of international economics useful to validate some considerations put in the follow-up.

Without having the aim of probing too deeply in econometric appraisals, after considering more in

the specific the most recent operations undertaken by the Swiss central bank concerning the

exchange rate, an attempt will be made to delineate a plausible scenario of evolution of the

Commercial Balance and of the Swiss economy in general.

BRIEF MENTION OF HISTORICAL FACTS

For the purposes of this dissertation, it is interest to refer the recent history of the Swiss money, the

Franc.

The Swiss Franc is historically considered a safe haven, thanks to its stability over time and to the

anchorage to a gold reserve. As shown below, after the mid ‘70s the inflation rate has always been

very restrained, touching the 6% level only in two occasions, though not actually due to internal

structural weaknesses, but mainly to economic international crises, respectively the petrol crisis of

1979 and the crisis that followed the end of the cold war in the late 80s. It is then logic to assert that

the expansion of the monetary basis has been kept under control, successfully reaching the goal of

monetary stability, which grants to the money a low devaluation over time.

Furthermore, what made the Swiss franc such an attractive currency as a risk-free asset was the

anchorage to a gold reserve, tied to the currency in measure of 40% of the total monetary amount

1 Depending on the contest, it will be used as €/CHF or CHF/€; it will be specified, whenever it takes.

in circulation. This course, started in the ‘20s, was stopped on May 1st 2000 subsequently to the

referendum held on April 12th of the same year.

Even though the Swiss National Bank has carried out some gold reserve sale program, the remaining

gold, about 1300 tons, is still equal to the 20% of the SNB assets, far more than the average gold

reserve held by the other national central banks2.

The exchange rate of the Swiss Franc has had a historical course which reflected its own qualities in

terms of safe haven: in fact it has always been able to attract, throughout time, conspicuous foreign

capital flows, which has brought to pressures toward an appreciation of the Swiss Franc with respect

to the other currencies, as the below chart3 shows:

The revaluating course of the Franc has lead the national monetary authorities to announce, on

September 6th 2011, the so called pegging, or capping, of the exchange rate against the Euro4, with

which was about to enter a parity situation (1:1). The motivations of this choice will be discussed

further in this document. The effect on the exchange rate was sudden: from 1.12 to 1.22 CHF/€,

equivalent to a depreciation of 8.8%; it lost 9.5% also against the US Dollar, and in general the

devaluation was immediate and acute against the other most important currencies.

On January 15 2015 the SNB dropped out of the pegging regime, without any previous

announcement about that maneuver5. That caught world markets unaware, inducing a

phenomenon of over reaction that lead to an immediate and incisive appreciation of the Swiss Franc

(in the order of 30%); it then recovered gradually, bringing the total increment of the value of the

Swiss currency with regards to the UE’s at 23% at the closure of the markets.

2 Swiss National Bank – Lessons and experiences; Speech by P. M. Hildebrand, member of the governing board; May 5 2005 3 www.fxtop.com; the chart shows the €/CHF exchange rate 4 www.bloomberg.com 5 The Sidney Morning Herald – ‘Francogeddon’: Swiss central bank stuns markets with policy U-turn

In conclusion, it is important to mention the operation (made in concurrence with the dropping out

of the fixed exchange rate) through which the SNB has cut the official interest rates from -0.5 to -

0.75; also in that case the reasons that plausibly lead to that kind of intervention will be discussed

in the follow-up.

THE SWISS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Hereunder the present situation of the Swiss balance of payments will be analyzed, putting the focus

on the entries concerning goods and services, and a comparison with the situation at the end of the

90s will be made, to mark the mutated commercial relationship with the European countries

following the birth of the Eurozone6. The analysis of the capital account shall be omitted as it is

irrelevant for the purposes of the analysis here proposed.

CURRENT ACCOUNT Switzerland is notoriously a country that makes the export of goods and services one of the main

characteristics of its economy. The scenario which emerges observing the historical series of the

entry “Current Account” of the balance of payments is characterized by a continuous growth trend

(interrupted only with the 2008 global economic crisis):

From the ‘80s, in fact, a continuous increase of exports have been recorded compared to imports.

It is appropriate to put the following question: which entry of the current account has mostly

contributed to this continuous raise of their surplus?

6 Data come from the annual reports and from the electronic publications made by the Swiss National Bank. Recourse was made in particular to the historical series of the balance of payments and to the attached documentation. All the material used is available at the web link www.snb.ch; specifically at the web link http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/stat/statpub/bop/stats/bop/bop_Tab_Ueb.

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Current Account net position 1947-2013

In the chart below7 along with the growth scenario of the current account, the growth scenario of

each entry related to the exports is proposed (as a value , net of the imports amount) of: goods,

services, labor and investments incomes (this entry is related to the Swiss workers settled in

foreign countries and to investments directed to foreign countries). A sub-entry of the services

data, the financial services, that have experienced a significant increase in importance during time,

has also been inserted.

As evident from the graph, the main determiner of the expansion of the current account surplus is

the export of the services (grey line), that have an important share represented by bank services.

The export of goods has actually had a marginal impact, and positive only since the early ’90s,

thanks especially to the expansion of the luxury and pharmaceutical goods.

FINANCIAL ACCOUNT By the analysis of the financial account of the Swiss balance of payments, it clearly emerges that

there are four relevant elements:

1. Unlike the current account, the financial account has been permanently in a deficit

condition, which moreover tends to increase as time goes by.

2. Swiss foreign direct investments are more significant than foreign direct investments in

Switzerland.

3. On the other hand, portfolio investments experienced a positive trend, getting in surplus in

the last years.

4. In the last years, the official reserves of foreign currencies have reduced noticeably.

Below a chart representing the elements discussed before8:

7 Own graphical elaborations made through Excel based on the official data spread by the SNB 8 Own graphical elaborations made through Excel based on the official data spread by the SNB

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Current Account Growth Dynamics

Current Account Goods Services Bank/financial services Lab./Invst. Income

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT AND THE FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

Comparing the financial account to the current account, it is evident that Switzerland still has an

excellent surplus with regards to rest of the world in terms of export of goods and services, and

that leads to pressures towards an appreciation, in time, of the exchange rate (as discussed

further in this paper).

The share of current account represented by labor income is marginal: only 25% of the total of the

current account surplus; considering that the relationship between those two variables is negative,

the Swiss currency should weaken as work performed abroad by Swiss citizen raises. Due to the

marginality of that factor on the current account, the effect on the exchange rate is not significant.

EXPORTS IN THE SWISS ECONOMY

Switzerland, as previously stated, has an economy deeply based on the export of goods and services

abroad: the percentage of participation of the export activity to the GDP is currently equal to 72.1%9.

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014

64.2 65.8 67.1 72.1

From the table it emerges also that the importance of the export activity has been growing

constantly during the last twenty years, concerning both the real goods sector (especially gold,

9 Source: The World Bank; http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS

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Financial Account 1985 - 2013

Financial Account, net Direct Investments Portfolio Investments Others Reserves

watches, chemical compounds) and the financial goods sector (as insurance policies and fiscal

products).

Along with that, it is useful to consider the following table10, which shows the main shares of

countries receiving Helvetic export:

Germany $45,773,068,256.51 17%

India $27,958,008,683.63 11%

United States of America $23,324,420,889.38 8.8%

France $14,962,551,478.03 5.7%

Italy $14,170,045,936.94 5.4%

United Kingdom $10,472,279,679.49 4.0%

China $8,695,603,240.85 3.3%

Japan $7,632,336,805.35 2.9%

Thailand $7,279,797,864.44 2.8%

Austria $6,733,961,525.94 2.6%

The importance of the European Countries tied to the Eurozone currency is clear: in total, the export

towards Euro-bound countries is worth 46.98%. The demand for Euros against the Franc is then the

main determiner of Swiss exports, followed by the demand of Asian currencies against the Franc

(equal to 36.62%) and of US Dollar (11.16%) and the rest of the world against the national

currency11. It is evident therefore the importance taken on by the Euro towards the Swiss economy,

being definitively the main importer of national goods.

Considering the importance of the Swiss export for the economy as a whole together with the

relevance of the Euro on the demand of Swiss Francs, it is easily deducible that a depreciation or a

devaluation of the Euro against the Swiss Franc, having great repercussions directly on the exports,

implies a noticeable impact on the Swiss economy; as explained in the next paragraph, the sign of

those repercussions should be negative.

The further considerations concerning the dropping out of the pegging regime of the exchange rate

–and the consequential appreciation of the Swiss Franc against the foreign currencies- adopted by

the SNB deal with everything that has just been stated; it is moreover important to remember that

it is early to make definitive verdicts and only with the passing of time it will be possible to verify

the goodness of the SNB operations.

10 Elaboration of data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/che/ 11 Observatory of Economic Complexity

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE

In this paragraph it will be made some brief mention to the model used to comprehend, analyze and

interpret the effects of the fluctuations of the exchange rate on some of variables relevant for this

dissertation, such as the goods export volume, the GDP and the official interest rate set by the

monetary authorities. It is not among the purposes of this document to propose an analysis of the

model, for what it is suggestable the recourse to more appropriate readings12, but the most

notorious results of the model will be briefly pointed out.

THE INTEREST RATES UNCOVERED PARITY CONDITION

𝑅𝐶𝐻𝐹 = 𝑅€ +𝐸𝑡+1

𝑒 − 𝐸𝑡

𝐸𝑡

This condition13 is to be interpreted as follows: the interest rate of a generic risk-free Swiss asset

must be worth the interest rate of a foreign asset (in this case denominated in Euros) plus the

expected depreciation of the exchange rate, in this case intended as number of Francs for one Euro.

Therefore, a result that will be used later in this document is the following: if a depreciation of the

Euro against Swiss Franc is expected, the interest rates in Switzerland must raise.

Obviously, this theoretical result derives from strict hypothesis, such as the absence of transaction

costs, the perfect capital mobility and the absence of arbitrage possibilities, but its validity has been

proved over time, often being able to explain a good share of the fluctuations of the national interest

rates.

DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NATIONAL CURRENCY It is important to consider the amount of national currency in circulation in the Swiss economic

system. It is determined by the balance between demand and supply of Swiss Francs by the other

economies, the most important being the Eurozone one. It is important therefore to consider the

fact that an increase in Swiss Franc demand for Euros might be a good proxy of the situation of the

balance of the current account: as it is an increment of Swiss exports towards the Eurozone. On the

contrary, an increase in demand of Swiss Francs against Euros stands as a diminution of the national

exports.

The analysis conducted in this document lies on the activity of export, because of its relevance on

the Swiss economy; nevertheless, what so far said is still valid, on the reverse, for imports: a

diminishment of the supply of Swiss Francs against Euros implies a growth of the exports, while an

increase entails a reduction of exports.

The point that is important to mark is that the monetary amount of a nation is, as is common

knowledge, determined by the encounter of demand and supply of national currency against Euros,

so that the decisions made by the monetary authorities concerning the monetary amount in

circulation have repercussions on the national commercial balance. Therefore, if the demand of

Francs against Euros increases, a certain amount of liquidity will be drawn off, and the official

12 For instance, see International Economics, volumes 1 e 2, Krugman, Obstfeld e Melitz, ed. 2012. 13 The exchange rate the formula refers to is €/CHF

reserves of Euros hold by the SNB shall raise; conversely, if the demand of Swiss Francs diminish in

favor of Euros, the monetary amount circulating in the system will grow.

EFFECTS OF THE MONETARY POLICY ON THE EXCHANGE RATE The following graph shows the effects of the movements of the monetary amount of the economic

system on the exchange rate:

Without examine in depth the analysis of the mechanism, if the monetary basis expands in the

domestic economy (in this case, in Switzerland), the M/P straight line in the graph below shifts

down, and that will then determine:

A decrease of the national interest rates

A depreciation of the exchange rate

Then considering what exposed in the previous point, if the demand of Swiss Franc against Euros

decreases, the SNB, adjusting to it, diminishes the circulating monetary amount buying Francs

against Euros. That brings the horizontal straight line to shift upward: the exchange rate, therefore,

gets appreciated and the imports simultaneously decrease.

THE APPRECIATION RISK AND THE CAPPING OF THE EXCHANGE

RATE

Considering what so far exposed, it is possible to analyze the events earlier mentioned and to

interpret the maneuvers carried out by the SNB.

THE STRONG REVALUATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE BETWEEN 2007 AND 2011

As beforehand shown14, the exchange rate between Swiss Franc and Euro experienced a constant

and continuously marked revaluation course, bringing towards a noticeable appreciation of the

Swiss currency against the Eurozone’s currency. That process actually began during the ‘70s, but, as

clear from the below chart15, has experienced a strong acceleration between 2007 and 2011,

concurrently with the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debts crisis:

This dynamic of appreciation of the Helvetic currency against the Euro has mainly two factors:

The ever greater foreign demand for real goods of Swiss productions, as witnessed by the

growth of the weight of the export on the GDP in the last twenty years; that reflected on a

growing demand of Swiss currency (especially, as previously remembered, by European

countries) which then determined a down pressure on the CHF/€ exchange rate

The increasing importance of the safe haven role of the Swiss currency, above all given the

growing weakness of Euro and the distrust towards the Eurosystem. That brought to an

increment of the Swiss Franc demand that, even thou it doesn’t reflect in productivity

increases, as it is about transactions without settlement purposes, has applied a strong

pressure on the revaluation of the CHF/€ exchange rate

14 See the “Brief mention of historical facts” paragraph 15 Source: www.xe.com

As beforehand stated, that could represent a serious threat to Swiss economy, since their wares are

now less attractive by the European economic agents, because of their continuously raising relative

price.

THE CAPPING OF THE EXCHANGE RATE

On September 5 2011 the exchange rate between the Swiss Franc and the Euro bordered on the

level of parity, being its level worth 0.91116; that brought the national monetary authorities to set

an upper limit for the exchange rate (on September 6 2011). It is said “upper limit” because the

exchange rate to which this limit is referred to is expressed as CHF against Euros, and not, as

convention, as Euros against CHF.

The mechanism is similar to the institution of a fixed rate; the difference is that the downward

fluctuations of the CHF/€ exchange rate are allowed. Every time the exchange rate gets close to the

threshold, set on the 0.83 level, the SNB intervenes ceding national currency and buying foreign

currency, increasing therefore its Euros official reserves. That explains the worsening of the relative

entry in the financial account of the balance of payments that was previously marked. The following

chart17 shows that, since September 6th 2011, the SNB has always kept the exchange rate under the

0.83 CHF/€ threshold:

Nevertheless, the pressure applied on the exchange rate has always been strong, as demonstrated

by the fact that the rate never drifted apart of the cap set by the SNB; that has implied a continuous

hoard of Euros reserves in exchange for national currency in the official reserves of the Swiss central

bank. This process has been surely fostered by the Russian Ruble crisis, that lead to a capital outflow

16 Intended as CHF/€ exchange rate, that is numbers of Swiss Francs equal to one Euro. 17 Source: www.xe.com

from Russia to Switzerland, that one being considered, as previously asserted, a safe haven for its

currency qualities.

THE DROPPING OUT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE

The SNB, on January 15 2015, without any previous announcement, dropped out of the capping of

the exchange rate, letting it flow freely. That immediately provoked an over reaction phenomenon

by the economic agents, who, through their market operations, were be able to bring the exchange

rate to the level of 1.0718 (the increase was worth 20.96%). The exchange rate stabilized itself on

the 0.92 level, close to the level prior the setting of the pegging in 2011.

The reasons the lead the SNB to remove the previous exchange rate capping measure might be

summarized as follows:

1. Excessive accumulation of the official reserves: the SNB has sold national currency for an

amount equal to 480 billions of dollars in foreign currency18 (mostly Euros and US dollars); it

is clear that the continuous stacking of reserves brought the Swiss central bank to an

unsustainable stress situation, inducing it to giving up the parity of the exchange rate.

2. The imminent operation of quantitative easing by the ECB, that has been expected by many

institutional and non-institutional market operators; such an operation, since not sterilized

by the ECB (because of the out-rigthness of itself), will plausibly have an inflationary effect

on the Eurozone – that is what ECB wishes for. That could bring Euro to depreciate against

other currencies. That means an even stronger pressure on Swiss Franc towards an

appreciation against Euro, and thus a further effort by the SNB to maintain the pegging

regime of the exchange rate hoarding foreign currency through national currency sales.

3. The iper-inflation risk due to the continuous emission of national currency by Swiss central

bank, which could have effects even worse than the exchange rate appreciation, as

demonstrated by the Japanese case (to which Swiss case is often compared to). However, as

beforehand asserted, inflation in Switzerland has always been kept under strict control by

the national monetary authorities; therefore such reasons appear to be marginally

important.

4. The difficulties to further steer the interest rates to contain the inflationary potential effects.

The SNB has already brought the official interest rates in negative territory, and other

operations in that direction would be ineffective and even, potentially, treacherous. As

previously stated19, a decrease of the domestic interest rates should balance out the

expected appreciation of the exchange rate. The SNB behaved in that manner, bringing the

rates to the -0.5% level, but this measure proved so far ineffective, considering what recently

happened. Nonetheless, along with the dropping out of the pegging regime, the Swiss

central bank has further cut the interest rate to -0.75%, in the hope of containing the

pressures on the appreciation of the exchange rate. The effects of this maneuver don’t seem

18 Source: The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/01/economist-explains-13 19 “The Importance of the exchange rate”-“The uncovered interest rates parity condition”.

to have been appreciable, since the course of the CHF/€ has nevertheless experienced a

strong upward shift.

THE FUTURE SCENARIO

By what so far stated, it is evident that Swiss economic conditions have changed during time.

Ironically, the financial, economic and monetary stability of Switzerland have determined the critic

situation that the Swiss central bank is nowadays facing. It is clear that the foreign demand for Swiss

real goods, that until now has always been the firmness of its economic system, will experience a

contraction due to the strong appreciation of Swiss Francs against Euros and the USDs.

There are some elements to consider that may soften the potential negative expectations about the

future of the Swiss economy and the extent of the demand contraction just a moment ago

mentioned.

Firstly, Switzerland, beyond gold, mainly exports two kinds of real goods: high-technology goods

and luxury goods, as demonstrated by the following table20, that shows the first ten products

exported by Switzerland abroad:

Good Annual quantity Export share

Gold $52,519,814,522.47 20%

Packaged medications $29,809,689,115.44 11%

Human, or of blood $16,366,090,711.94 6.2%

Basic metal clocks $13,094,390,819.91 5.0%

Precious metal clocks $8,801,199,640.98 3.3%

Orthopedical instruments $6,274,875,494.06 2.4%

Jewellery $5,861,875,912.54 2.2%

Heterociclal azote $4,813,692,968.35 1.8%

Medical tools $2,949,264,886.40 1.1%

Carbossiammid compounds $2,310,012,797.62 0.88%

These are essentially chemical/medical products, highly professional equipment (mostly medical),

and luxury goods (including precious metals). The first and the second ones require specific and

expensive technology and structures, therefore are scarcely available in other economies at the

same quality; together considered, they represent the 42.83% of the total export21. The third

category mentioned, that has a 25.13% share of the total exports, is represented by goods that are

traditionally characterized by a low demand elasticity to price, also because they are themselves

considered as safe haven goods (similarly to Swiss Francs themselves), moreover not being affected

by inflation phenomena.

20 Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity, http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/che/ 21 Source: Observatory of Economic Complexity, http://atlas.media.mit.edu/explore/tree_map/hs/export/che/all/show/2012/

Thus, the majority of exports consists in goods that should only marginally be affected by the

negative repercussions inducted by the appreciation of the national currency. That is valid only in

the short-medium period; in future, other countries might concentrate the same technological and

productive capacity that Switzerland can now be proud of in the chemical, biomedical and high-

technological machinery sectors; and this can determine, in the longer term, a competition which

Switzerland could not be able to face through the traditional competitiveness given by the favorable

exchange rate, which is likely getting appreciated throughout time.

What just said however is not valid for the luxury goods sector, which has also a fundamental

economic relevance to Swiss economy (only the wristwatch sector has a share of almost 10% over

the total Swiss exports). In that case, demand is strictly bound to the brand, and only marginally

attracted by similar goods lacking the same historical tradition, thus it could be low elastical even in

the longer period.

Another crucial point in the future scenario analysis is the interest rate. The SNB cannot eternally

maintain a negative interest rate, because it is applied indiscriminately to everybody, including Swiss

citizens (that condition is unlikely sustainable on a political level). For that reason, an increase of the

official interest rates, back to positive territory, must eventually take place. Considering the

relationships beforehand presented22, a raise of the domestic interest rate implies an increase of

the expected €/CHF exchange rate, that means that a strengthening of Swiss Francs against Euros is

expected. Nevertheless the interest rate, just returned to positive territory, could not be shortened

again, and the Swiss central bank will have to draw upon other instruments to limit the foreign

capital inflows. It could, for instance, apply a fee on them, or try to steer the volatility of its assets

(like what was done by the Turkish monetary authorities).

It is to be considered, however, that the revaluation pressure of Swiss Francs is, for a not marginal

quota, conductible to the fragile economic situation that nowadays characterizes the Eurozone and

Russian economies. Their uncertainty makes that attractive Swiss assets. If this situation does not

last for long, Switzerland surely will benefit from it, at least for what concerns the export activity

potentials.

The question thus is: which effect shall prevail? By what so far exposed, it is clear that, even thou

the present conditions of the European and Russian economies had an important role on the most

recent €/CHF exchange rate dynamics, those ones are, actually, the peak of a trend that started long

before, and that gets strength mainly from the stability, certainty and firmness conditions of Swiss

economy. Therefore, despite the SNB efforts, a continuous devaluation of the exchange rate is likely

to happen, at least until the Swiss economy will appear, to foreign investors, as solid and safe as it

has historically been.

22 See “The importance of the exchange rate”, “The uncovered interest rates parity condition”

REFERENCES, BIBLIOGRAPHY AND WEBOGRAPHY

Swiss National Bank – Lessons and experiences; Speech by P. M. Hildebrand, member of the

governing board; May 5 2005

www.fxtop.com

www.bloomberg.com

The Sidney Morning Herald – ‘Francogeddon’: Swiss central bank stuns markets with policy U-turn

Swiss National Bank official website

The World Bank - http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS

Observatory of Economic Complexity - http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/che/

International Economics, volumes 1 e 2, Krugman, Obstfeld e Melitz, ed. 2012

www.xe.com

The Economst website: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-

explains/2015/01/economist-explains-13