the rational for a nama in the refrigeration, air …...baseline and mitigation strategy for thai...
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
The Rational for a NAMA in the
Refrigeration, Air Conditioning and
Foam Blowing Sector
page 1
Dietram Oppelt, Proklima
Bangkok, 26th July 2012
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15.8.2012 Seite 2 Page 2
Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
Background – Climate Impact
Refrigeration and Air Conditioning
Refr
ige
rati
on
+ A
C
Fo
am
s
ODP
Direct Emissions
Indirect Emissions
15-20% of
world
electricity
consumption!!*
CO2
eq.
CO2
HFC
CFC,
HCFC
*IIR, 2002
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
Background – From CFC, HCFC to HFC U
NE
P/W
MO
Ozo
ne
Asse
ssm
en
t, 2
00
6
(ODPs) (GWPs)
CO2 = 1 CFC-11 = 1
Climate Ozone
HFCs have no effect on the ozone layer, but are potent greenhouse
gases.
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
There are climate-friendly alternatives!
Refrigerant Group Atmospheric
life
ODP GWP
R11 CFC 130 1 4000
R12 CFC 130 1 8500
R22 HCFC 15 .05 1500
R134a HFC 16 0 1300
R404a HFC 16 0 3260
R410a HFC 16 0 1720
R507 HFC 130 1 3300
R717 NH3 - 0 0
R744 CO2 - 0 1
R290 HC < 1 0 8
R600a HC < 1 0 8
High GWP
“Drop-Ins”
Low GWP
Natural
Refrigerants
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
There are alternatives for (nearly) all
applications!
Mobile AC
HC
Domestic
Ref.
CO2,
HC HC
AC
CO2/
HC
Foams
NH3
Industr.
Ref.
CO2
Comm.
Ref.
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt
CO
2e
q
Other Foam
Stationary AC Mobile AC
Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration
Refrigerated transport Industrial refrigeration
Global demand (mainly for AC) will drive
demand for refrigerants (unabated) )
AC demand
- more people
- moving in cities
- warm and humid climates
- warmer world
- more wealth
- more ACs,.....
Similar drivers for
- commercial refrigeration
- industrial refrigeration
- mobile AC and refrig.
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
AC Multi
Split
systems A5
AC Split
systems
A2
AC Split
systems A5
Industrial
A5
Industrial
A2
… and often they make better economics!
World 2020 Scenario
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
Strong reduction possible … to a large extent
without additional costs to the society
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
Mt C
O2eq
HFC
cons
umpt
ion
BAU t CO2e RED t CO2e
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mt
CO
2e
q
• Room AC China/ India
(HC R290)
• Central Chiller Mauritius (NH3)
HPMP XPS Foam Sector Plan China
(HC, CO2)
… addressing alternative solutions in key
countries and subsectors ..
• Mobile AC – South Africa
- trans. Refrigeration (CO2)
• Commercial Refrigeration – SA
(NH3, CO2)
• Domestic Refrigeration –
Swaziland (HC)
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
Moving from demonstration projects to sectoral
approaches
Sector development CFC HCFC HFC LOW GWP + EE applications and systems
International Cooperation
Financial Cooperation
Economic Cooperation
Capacity building/
NAMAs
Management/
Support
Networks
• Strategy development
• Institutional building
• Pilot projects
• Standards/ labelling
• Qualification/
training
• Technology transfer/
partnerships
(R&C, PPP, JV, ... )
• Institutional partner-
ships/ universities
• Co-Financing
• MRV
• Public relations
• Dissemination of
results
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
Overcoming the barriers
Financial Technical Institutional
Refrigeration
and AC
- ODP
- CO2 eq
- Energy
Consumption
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
The Funding challenge
$1.334 billion
$800 million
Required funding to meet
10% reductions for all Art.
5 countries in 2015
Expected
MLF
funding
(current
and next
replenish
ment)
Unavoidable, non-
incremental costs
Climate + Ozone
Benefits Additional
Financing for
non-
incremental
costs
Source: World Bank,
Geneva 2010
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
The technology challenge
Technology Promote Natural
Refrigerat Applications
Technology transfer +
partnerships
Safety Make systems fully safe
Know How Transfer
Standards
Allow best climate solutions
International exchange of standards
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
The Institutional Challenge
Montreal Protocol
• CFC and HCFC
• Effective conrols/ sectoral
• Effective financing (incremental costs)
• No CO2eq focus
UNFCCC
• Includes HFC
• No mechanism for HFC control
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Baseline and Mitigation Strategy
for Thai RAC
CFC and HCFC phase-out under Montreal Protocol
+ effective ODP phase out
- Limited CO2eq impact of alternative systems
- No HFC yet
HFC under UNFCCC
- Reported not managed
- 8% growth New approach MP + NAMA
- Combined HCFC +HFC
+ ODP and CO2eq
+ Refrigerants and Systems
+ Sectoral + NAMAs
What is required towards a step change