the race to the white house. us elections the us electoral system is very much like a foot race...
TRANSCRIPT
THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE
US ELECTIONS
• The US electoral system is very much like a foot race between the candidates.
US ELECTIONS
• Candidates need:– Money – Publicity– Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Cater to party hard core
here since they will be the voters in primaries– A LOT OF HELP FROM OUTSIDE GROUPS – ISSUE
ADS
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• There are 2 steps in the process of getting elected to Congress.
• 1.) Getting the Nomination of your Party
• 2.) Winning the General Election
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• 1. Getting the Nomination • Each political party uses a primary or a caucus
to select their candidates• Primary = an election in which voters
registered in a political party choose the party’s nominee (Open or Closed)
• Caucus = Closed meeting of party leaders at the state and local level to select candidates
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
• How is the winner chosen?• We use an electoral system called Single
Member District First Past the Post Elections.• The Parties run a candidate in each district
and the winner is the one with a plurality of votes
GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS
• 2. What are the differences between our bicameral legislatures?
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House of Representatives Senate1.) 435 members2.) Based on Population 3.) 2 year Term 4.) Entire House up for re-election every 2 years5.) Members elected from single member districts6.) Very Constituent connected
1.) 100 members2.) Equality – 2 per state 3.) 6 year term4.) Staggered elections with 1/3 up every 2 years5.) Members elected state wide6.) More nationally focused
GETTING ELECTED TO CONGRESS
• 7. So what in the name of all that is holy does the “Incumbency Advantage” mean?
• What is an incumbent?
• What is the advantage?
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Figure 13.2: Percentage of Incumbents Reelected to Congress
Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics, 1999-2000 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 2000), table 1-18; 2004 updated by Marc Siegal.
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Incumbents Reelected to Congress
Open Secrets – Current Numbers
http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php
INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• A.) What is the point of the graph?• The Incumbency Advantage – statistical
advantage incumbents have in re-election• The great likelihood that a current office
holder will be re-elected to office because of the advantages of the incumbent
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INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• D.) Identify and explain factors that contribute to the Incumbency Advantage.
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Name Recognition
Franking
Pork Barrel Legislation
Constituent Services
Partisan Redistricting - Gerrymandering
Campaign Experience
Sophomore Surge
Easier to fund raise – Campaign finance rules benefit incumbent
Access to media
Staff Assistance
Access to Gov’t research
Washington Experience
INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE
• B.) Analyze positive and negative effect that the Incumbency Advantage has on American Politics.
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Positive Negative
•Stability and Continuity •More democratic – voter choice•Incremental change and not radical•More experienced political leaders•Better working relationship with Interests
•Lack of responsiveness / Accountability•Fewer Women in Congress•Fewer Minorities•Too policy specialized•Discourages challengers
THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS
• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
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Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates
Average $ Raised
Incumbent $635,589,757 420 $1,513,308
Challenger $295,852,172 1,115 $265,338
THE COSTS OF SEATS IN CONGRESS
• COST OF WINNING SEAT IN THE US SENATE
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Type of Candidate Total $ Raised Number of Candidates
Average $ Raised
Incumbent $337,324,712 30 $11,244,157
Challenger $147,338,169 153 $962,994
PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING
• In order to understand this issue, you need to Play A Game!
• http://www.redistrictinggame.org/
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GERRYMANDERING
• This issue is one of the most egregious examples of conflict of interest in politics today. The Fox is in Charge of the Hen House!
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GERRYMANDERING
• Started with Elbridge Gerry
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PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING
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PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS
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PENNSYLVANIA DISTRICTS
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PARTISAN CONTROL OF REDISTRICTING
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• Voters directly choose the winner of each Congressional seat.
• However, Presidential Elections are more complicated.
• Voters indirectly choose the President.• The final choice on who becomes the next US
President is made by the Electoral College.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 3 steps to winning the White House • 1.) Getting the Nomination – The
Primaries and Caucus Stage • 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • 3.) Winning the General Election in
November
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Winning the Election – What do candidates need:– Money – Publicity - TV Time – Hired Gun / Architect – Campaign Expert– Staff and workers– A strategy or theme – Come back to the middle
now to attract the voters in the middle
–More EC votes than other candidate!
US ELECTIONS CANDIDATE $ RAISED # OF VOTES AVERAGE $ PER
VOTEBarack Obama (D) $532,946,511 69,498,215 $7.39
John McCain (R) $379,006,485 59,948,240 $5.78
Ralph Nader (I) $4,496,180 738,720 $5.67
Bob Barr (L) $1,383,681 523,713 $2.57
2012 Presidential Election Totals
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 1.) Getting the Nomination – The Primaries and Caucus Stage
• Cater to the Party Hardliners to win this stage since voter turnout is so low.
• Watch out for Front Loading• What is the big deal here?
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
2.) Campaigning at the Convention Each state sends a set number of delegates to
the convention based on the size of the sate’s population and success in past elections.
Candidate needs to select a VP running mate – “balance the ticket”.
Candidates need a majority of the delegates at the national party convention.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 2.) Campaigning at the Convention • Party platform is written at the convention• Non-binding statement of party’s stance on the issues• Selecting a running mate – Balance the Ticket
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• 3.) Winning the General Election in November• Now candidates have to come back to the
middle and be more moderate in order to attract the independent voters
• Need money / strategy / publicity and TV time / success at the debates / support from groups to run ads on TV
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
• The Media and TV Ads are key to success. • Daisy Commercial - http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA
1988 – George Bush• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx5X3Jd8DI4• 1988 Michael Dukakis• http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q&list=PL3072BD7925CE01CA
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• In order to win the General Election and become the next US President, a candidate needs a majority of the votes cast by the Electoral College
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 1. What is the EC?• The group of people from each state that
selects the next US President• 2. Each state gets a number of electors based
on its population– # OF EC VOTES PER STATE = # OF SENATORS + #
OF REPRESETNATIVES IN THE US HOUSE– LOOK AT THE BACK WALL
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 3. Key is the Census which counts population of each state every 10 years.
• 4. How many total EC votes? 538• 5. How many EC votes needed to
win? 270 – Majority
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 6. How are the votes allocated (given out) to the candidates?
• 48 states use a winner-take-all system. The candidate with the most votes (PLURALITY) gets ALL of the EC Votes.
• Maine and Nebraska break it down by Congressional District (Win a district and get 1 EC Vote) and the overall winner of the state gets the 2 EC votes for the Senate seats
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 7. Who selects the Electors? • Each Political party has a list of electors. If that
Party’s candidate wins the state, then that group of electors gets to vote in EC.
• The Electors are SUPPOSED to vote for the candidate that wins their state but NOT absolutely required to do so.
• We do get the occasional “FAITHLESS ELECTOR”
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Reality of voting in a Presidential Election – You are voting for an elector who will then make the vote for President
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 8. Why do we use this system?• Give people the power to choose the US
President• Federalism – Give states some power over the
selection of the President• Sneaky Founding Fathers – They wanted it to
be a system where the US House of Reps would always have the final say!
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• The Framers predicted that each state would select and vote for their favorite son and then no candidate would ever get a majority
• 9. What happens if no one wins a majority of the EC votes?
• The House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP.
• But the Framers did not see the rise of political parties
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• 10. So what is the schedule?• General Election is on the Tuesday after the
first Monday in November (11/6/2012)• Electoral College members meet in state
capitals in mid-December to cast their votes• Then votes are opened in early January before
the first session of the new Congress. This is when the results are certified.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
• Go to 270 to win to see the results of the 2012 Presidential Election
• http://www.270towin.com/
• What would a 2016 campaign between Hillary and Christie look like
• http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_show_polling.php?mapid=bDyy