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Fragile States and the Evolution of Risk Governance:
Intervention, Prevention and ExtensionJohn Glenn is an Associate Professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Southampton University and can be contacted at [email protected]. His work focuses on IPE and Security Studies. His most recent work includes: development and governance; the rise of China under US hegemony; and a Foucauldian analysis of financial reforms after the crisis.
John Glenn, Politics and International Relations, Southampton University, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK.
Robert Frith is Principal Lecturer in International Politics in the School of Social, Historical and Literary Studies, University of Portsmouth. His current research focuses on risk framing in NGO and corporate partnerships and INGO accountability. He has previously published on cosmopolitan democracy, global governance and legitimacy in journals such as Political Studies and Global Governance. He can be contacted at [email protected]
Rob Frith, School of Social, Historical and Literary Studies, University of Portsmouth, School of Social, Historical and Literary Studies, Milldam, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3AS, UK.
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Introduction
Writing in the immediate aftermath of the plane crashes into the twin
towers of the World Trade Centre, on September 11, 2001, Ulrich Beck
proclaimed that:
‘the gulf between the world of those who profit from globalization and
the world of those who feel threatened by it has been closed. Helping
those who have been excluded is no longer a humanitarian task. It is in
the West’s own interests: the key to its security. The West can no
longer ignore the black holes of collapsed states and situations of
despair’.1
Following 9/11, these fragile and failed states have been seen by western
governments as islands of instability from which issue a plethora of security
threats. A ‘chronic lack of state capacity, political fragmentation, collapsed
public infrastructure and social isolation’ are said to lead to zones of ‘bad
governance, nonexistent social services, and poverty’ which provide a ‘broader
enabling environment’ leading to ‘support and sanctuary’ for terrorists ‘in vast
areas that have not experienced the political and economic benefits of
globalization’.2 The veracity of this link is certainly challenged, but regardless
of whether or not there is actually an empirical link between terrorism,
poverty/inequality and these islands of instability, it is the argument of this paper
that policy makers have adopted this discursive framing to order and manage
these perceived risks. However, in contrast to claims that the adopted policy
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framing and related practices constitute a radical rupture or paradigm shift, it is
argued here, instead, that they represent a process of incrementalist policy
making in which the linkage made between human development and state
stability has been further expanded.
In order to advance this argument, the paper draws upon the broader
International Relations literature that identifies two competing perspectives of
risk – Beck’s World Risk Society and Foucault’s governmentality of risk.3 The
World Risk Society approach introduces a dichotomy between reflective and
reflexive modernisation.4 The former is associated with the first phase of
modernity and involves ‘improving our knowledge of cause-effect relations and
control of the world’.5 Whereas the latter is associated with self-confrontation
and an acceptance of ‘our own inability to know’.6 The former attempts to reduce
potential vulnerabilities through improved scientific technical knowledge, while
the latter involves an appreciation of the uncontrollable risks that lead to
catastrophic events; prompting full recognition of the unknowability of the future
effects of our current activities.7 Politically, it is argued, that such catastrophes
prompt a shift to a ‘cosmopolitan form of statehood’ – an alliance of the state and
civic movements - that will tame global capital.8
In contrast, a Foucauldian approach emphasises the way in which a variety
of risk rationalities and technologies are used to manage such challenges. There
is thus a fundamental difference between this and the World Risk Society
approach because it views risk as a way of ‘organizing reality, disciplining the
future, taming chance and rationalizing individual conduct’.9 Rather than
leading to a process of self-confrontation through which the foundations of
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modernity are questioned, such challenges are met by new rationalities and
technologies of risk.10 For this approach, reflexivity refers to the
‘governmentalization of government’ or ‘reflexive government’.11 Instead of
witnessing a shift towards a cosmopolitan risk society, crises and catastrophes
are said to produce reflexive moments through which the existing risk dispositif –
the ‘discourses, institutions, architectural forms, regulatory decisions, laws,
administrative measures, scientific statements, philosophical, moral and
philanthropic propositions’– adopted by state and non-state actors to govern and
manage our natural and social environments, are modified to meet the
challenges that confront us, thereby sustaining the ‘authority of their
authority’.12
Mapping the changes in the discourses and practices adopted by western
states for engaging with weak and failed states and poverty/inequality reveals a
degree of reflexivity and incremental reform, but it remains limited and falls far
short of Beck’s notion of a cosmopolitan society. Certainly, weak and failed
states’ association with international terrorism has not induced a reversal of
neoliberal policy.13 Within this process of incremental transformation, the
politics of intervention and the securitization of development have been extended
to encompass the problem of international terrorism. Indeed, the securitisation
of development itself is an instance of bricolage whereby two pre-existing policy
areas have become inextricably connected in response to pressing concerns over
state instability, further underscoring that the inclusion of terrorism is simply the
latest incremental change within a proactive set of policies intended to reduce
the overall level of risk, rather than a purported paradigm shift as others claim.14
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This process of incremental reform and bricolage modifying the risk
dispositif has involved three overlapping phases: intervention (involving the
redefinition of sovereignty), prevention (involving the securitisation of
development; and extension (involving the incorporation of terrorism within the
securitisation of development). In a post Cold War world, the new policy of
intervention has involved not only a shift in emphasis from Chapter VI to Chapter
VII of the UN Charter, but also proactive deployments in potential conflict zones.
This policy of proactive intervention with regard to fragile states was not only
expanded, it also conjoined development and security: the former regarded as a
preventative policy to ensure the latter. This securitisation of development was
further extended to terrorism under the assumptions that terrorism is linked to
poverty/inequality and also that weak/fragile states provide fertile ground for
terrorist movements.
Previous studies applying both World Risk Society and Foucauldian
approaches to risk and security have addressed the strategic and policy impact
of the new emphasis on precaution and pre-emption as a result of 9/11 and other
terrorist acts.15 Precaution ‘implies that, from now on, along with what one can
learn from science, in a context that is always relative, it will also be necessary
to take into account what one might only imagine, doubt, presume, or fear’.16 It
therefore involves ‘the deployment of imagination and its coupling with
possibility of harms that cannot be tolerated....[it has] a fundamentally
preventive logic. It assumes that prevention is possible’.17 As such, adopting this
principle often requires preventative or ‘weatherman’ policies identifying
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potential dangers and attempting to reduce the probability of them turning into
actual threats by acting in advance of the event.18
This paper adds to this literature by arguing that the shift towards a
precautionary approach with respect to the risks perceived to emanate from
failed states and associated with poverty/inequality has placed especial emphasis
on preventative policies. Although analysis of pre-emptive policies emphasise
that action is taken under conditions of uncertainty, it is our contention that this
does not necessarily distinguish such policies from preventative ones. Rather, we
should distinguish the two temporally. Pre-emption focuses on imminent crises,
attempting to identify the emergence of an event and nipping things in the bud.19
Whereas preventative policies are viewed as having a longer time horizon
‘confronting factors that are likely to contribute to the development of a threat
before it has had the chance to become imminent’.20
In order to develop these points, the remainder of the paper proceeds as
follows. First, it critically compares the competing Beckian and Foucauldian
accounts of risk, establishing the basis of the argument that risk has been
deployed as a means of ordering and managing the challenges associated with
weak and failing states and poverty/inequality. Second, it maps the incremental
expansion and reform of the risk dispositif according to three overlapping phases
which we have termed intervention, prevention and extension. Finally, it
concludes that although these phases are reflexive moments, whereby policy is
reformed incrementally and by processes of bricolage, this constitutes a
strengthening of the prevailing rationalities and technologies of risk, rather than
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a radical rupture in the discourse and practices of risk associated with an
emerging World Risk Society and cosmopolitan form of statehood.
Unbounded Risks, Reflexivity and Prevention
In his works, Beck distinguishes between a first phase of modernity in
which ‘calculating risks is part of the master narrative’ and a later modernity in
which we ‘enter a world of uncontrollable risk’.21 Classic modernity involves the
application of scientific-technical knowledge to industrial society, not only
endeavouring to calculate the risks associated with such actions but also
employing an infinite iterative knowledge loop – continually learning from
problems that arise and applying that new knowledge to further improve control
over the environment and society. However, late modernity is increasingly beset
by risks of a much greater magnitude and scope arising from the unforeseen
consequences of applying our scientific-technical knowledge to the natural and
social worlds. Risks become ‘de-bounded’, ‘not limited by political borders or
calculable timeframes’ and are said to be of ‘low probability but potentially
cataclysmic’.22
In this regard, Beck’s work contains important insights with regard to risk,
globalisation and security. The high degree of interdependency that comes with
globalisation means, not only that risks are de-localized and temporally
stretched, but also that ‘assignment of causes and consequences is no longer
possible with any degree of reliability’.23 For Beck too, under such conditions of
radical uncertainty, the precautionary principle holds.24 In addition, Beck
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identifies the way in which states have responded to the risks of global terrorism
by constructing ‘transnational cooperative networks’, and understanding that it
is in the ‘West’s own interest: the key to its security’ to improve the lot of
others.25 Beck suggests that the enormity of these risks will inevitably generate
sufficient awareness within global society to prompt such critical self-reflection
on our existing practices.26 This critical reflection – or reflexivity- is said to
involve self-confrontation ‘with the effects of risk society that cannot be dealt
with and assimilated in the system of industrial society’ and an acceptance of
‘our own inability to know’ the unintended consequences of our own actions.27
Reflexive modernisation thus goes beyond simply ‘improving our knowledge of
cause-effect relations and control of the world’ and actually involves ‘a process of
reflection by which the foundations of modernity are questioned and revised’.28
This shift, it is argued, prompts a major political movement towards what Beck
calls a ‘Cosmopolitan form of statehood’ in which an alliance of the state and
civic movements is forged to confront the issues that arise from such risks.29
Although Beck does suggest that there are other policy outcomes, he
argues that the nature of the global risks confronting us is acting as a
‘compulsive force’ driving us towards cosmopolitan statehood, which is a ‘facet
of world risk society’.30 This is because in a world risk society, the traditional
nationally based solutions are no longer feasible because, ‘instead of solving
problems, it contributes to producing and exacerbating them’.31 It is argued by
Beck that the cosmopolitan solution is likely to succeed precisely because it
proposes a realistic solution to today’s problems.32 At times he goes even further.
For example, in the aftermath of 9/11 Beck argued that ‘The following
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paradoxical principle holds true: States must de-nationalise and trans-
nationalise themselves for the sake of their own national interest, that is,
relinquish sovereignty, in order, in a globalised world, to deal with their national
problems’.33 Most recently, Beck has argued that we are already witnessing the
emergence of ‘cosmopolitanized risk collectivities’ that may act as a stepping
stone towards cosmopolitan statehood.34
In the aftermath of 9/11, a period of political reflection did indeed follow.
However, although certain economic reforms were suggested this period of
introspection did not resemble Beck’s process of societal self-critique.35
Certainly, there is little evidence that such an event has produced a
‘cosmopolitan form of statehood’ – that will tame global capital, or push societies
‘to make border-transcending new beginnings’ towards a more cosmopolitan
world.36 Similarly, although there has been a shift away from the minimum state
towards an emphasis on state capacity, the other fundamental principles of neo-
liberalism remain intact, namely, free markets, free trade and the free flow of
capital.37
Instead, when confronted by cataclysmic events, this paper argues that
policy follows a far more pragmatic path such that reflexivity takes the form of
‘governmentalization of government’ or ‘reflexive government’ whereby ‘the
mechanisms of government themselves are subject to problematization, scrutiny
and reformation’.38 A Foucauldian approach therefore emphasises the way in
which a variety of risk rationalities and technologies are used to order and
manage such challenges. Rather than a radical shift towards cosmopolitan
statehood, the risk dispositif has, as one of its main objects, the reduction of risk
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to the circulation of global ‘goods’ - peoples, commodities, and money essential
for the functioning of the capitalist system - and the reduction in risk of the
circulation of global ‘bads’ - forced migration, trafficking, money laundering and
so forth.39 Thus, when appearing before the US Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence in 2004, to report on the United States security environment, Vice
Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby framed his submission in the very terms of the risks
inhering within an enmeshed circulation globalised ‘goods’ and ‘bads’ noting
that: ‘[g]lobalization remains an overwhelming force that presents security
challenges. Terrorists, proliferators of illicit weapons and military technology,
narco-traffickers and alien smugglers are making increasing use of the world’s
financial, communication and transportation systems’.40
This period of reflection led to a reassessment of security priorities within
western policy circles, exemplified by the claim in the United States Security
Strategy, 2002, that ‘America is now threatened less by conquering states than
we are by failing ones’.41 The empirical relationship between these islands of
instability and transnational terrorism is contested. Broadly speaking, three
positions are discernible. First, there are those studies finding evidence of a
strong linear relationship, whereby the greater the intensity of state failure the
more likely it is that the state will be the origin and target of transnational
terrorism.42 Second, and contra this failed state thesis, others have argued that
fragile states are preferred over failed states because they offer a more stable
environment and an infrastructure that can be taken advantage of.43 Jettisoning
these arguments framed, as they are, in terms of ‘more’ or ‘less’ state failure,
yet a third position claims that the ‘relationship is more complex than a simple
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linear causal process’.44 Such complexity, it is argued, indicates the need for
more careful study in order to understand how certain ‘categories of weak and
failing states’ are ‘associated with particular threats’ and how ‘additional
variables … catalyse an enabling environment into a genuine terrorist
sanctuary’.45 Yet, despite this disputed link, fragile, weak and failed states’
association with international instability, transnational terrorism and criminality
continues to remain the ‘conventional wisdom’.46 Accordingly, references to the
dangers posed by weak and failed states are now ‘thoroughly mainstreamed’
within western states strategic documents.47
A recent US National Security Strategy explicitly notes how ‘failing states’
continue to pose a ‘threat’ to the United States as they ‘breed conflict and
endanger regional and global security’.48 Its National Strategy for
Counterterrorism commits the US to ‘eliminate the safehavens’ relied upon by
‘Al-Qa’ida and its affiliates’ – ‘the physical sanctuary of ungoverned or poorly
governed territories, where the absence of state control permits terrorists to
travel, train and engage in plotting’.49 Similarly, the UK National Security
Strategy 2010 notes that, ‘[f]ragile, failing and failed states around the world
provide the environment for terrorists to operate as they look to exploit
ungoverned or ill-governed space’ providing a ‘training ground’ for individuals
with ambitions to commit attacks in the UK.50 The European Union’s Report on
the Implementation of the European Security Strategy, 2008, affirms that ‘[s]tate
failure affects our security through crime, illegal immigration and, most recently,
piracy’ (European Union, 2008, p. 1) and its Draft Internal Security Strategy
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notes that, ‘[s]pecial attention will have to be paid to “weak and failed states” so
that they do not become hubs of organised crime or terrorism’.51
A similar link is made between Global Terrorism and poverty/inequality.
Just as the link between global terrorism and fragile/failed states is disputed, so
too is the link between terrorism and poverty/inequality. Various statistical
studies investigating the terrorist life cycle and the root causes of participation
in terrorism have failed to establish whether poverty and inequality create an
environment that makes participation in terrorist acts more likely.52 James Piazza
argues that there is ‘no empirical evidence to support the crux of the “rooted in-
poverty thesis … that poor economic development, measured as low levels of per
capita income, literacy, life expectancy, more equal distribution of wealth,
growth of GDP, stable prices, employment opportunities, and food security, is
related to increased levels of terrorism’.53 Moreover, other studies have found
that democratic higher income countries actually have a higher incidence of
terrorism and still others that, for countries with ‘similar levels of civil liberties,
poor countries do not generate more terrorism than rich countries’.54
Despite the disputed link between poverty/inequality and global terrorism,
the rooted in poverty thesis has been widely adopted, nevertheless - in a similar
fashion to the failed state thesis - as a point of ‘consensus’ or ‘core assumption
among national and policy makers since the events of September 11’.55 Indeed,
in his Kennedy Memorial Lecture, the former Prime Minister of the UK, Gordon
Brown deployed simultaneously both the failed state and rooted in poverty
theses claiming that: ‘now the worst threats come from states that are too
weak’; that linked ‘to failed and failing states is the spread of international
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terrorism’, and; that the pool of disenfranchised serve as a ready recruiting
ground for such groups so ‘that our enemy, as George Marshall put it in a great
speech in Boston sixty years ago, will never be just one country but “hunger,
poverty, desperation, and chaos”’.56
The response to the risks perceived to be posed by fragile states and of
terrorism has been driven less by the abstract principles of human rights and
global justice and more by bricolage and incrementalism – combining existing
policies and/or extending them to other issues.57 Rather than challenge neo-
liberalism, the solution to such global risks has been to focus on state capacity
and the basic welfare of the population to ensure its continuation. Instead of
representing a shift away from what Beck calls ‘methodological nationalism’, the
policy has entailed cooperation between international and national actors to
‘coproduce “sovereignty strategies”’ designed to restore the failing state to a
condition whereby it can discharge effectively its sovereign responsibilities.58 At
the same time, efforts have been directed towards development in order to
improve the basic welfare of the population to further ensure stability. This
securitization has involved the ‘reinvention of development as a form of conflict
prevention’. 59
The Evolution of Risk Governance: Intervention, Prevention and
Extension
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This policy process has been constituted by three overlapping phases, or
reflexive moments, since the end of the Cold War: intervention; prevention; and
extension. The first phase began in the wake of the dissolution of the Soviet
Union. Freed from the constrictions of the bipolar world, the United Nations’
peacekeeping role shifted towards a more proactive stance, embracing peace-
making, peace-enforcement and peace-building. There was also recognition for
longer term policies directed towards human development to prevent fragile
states from collapsing altogether. The main strategy for preventing these
disruptions to global circulation has been to induce state stability through
enhancing human development (the securitization of development). As Duffield
argues, the development-security nexus simultaneously has as its object not only
the eradication of frictions for formal circulation, but also the containment of
informal circulation such as unmanaged migration.60 The perturbations of neo-
liberal economic policies are seen as one of the factors in the shift from weak, to
fragile states and their possible collapse. Despite the fact that such links have
not been firmly established, precaution indicated that such a policy be followed.61
The resulting securitization of development views human development as part of
the solution to civil conflict, inducing state stability and eradicating the problem
of these ungoverned spaces.62 After 9/11, a third phase became apparent in
which the securitization of development was extended to encompass terrorism.
The precautionary principle was again in evidence during this phase. Fragile
states were now viewed as possible safe havens from which terrorists could
operate and poverty was regarded as one of many possible causes of terrorism.
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Intervention: Redefining Sovereignty
Partly as a result of the increasing rise of islands of instability, the Dag
Hammarskjöld framework of peace-keeping, previously limiting the role of UN
blue helmets to a very narrowly defined set of tasks, was radically reformed. The
Cold War had restricted the UN’s role to a mode of peace-keeping that relied
upon the consent of the parties to the conflict and limited the use of armed force
to one of self-defence. But from 1992 onwards, there was a shift away from this
‘creative interpretation of Chapter VI’ (Pacific Settlement of Disputes) to a much
more interventionist stance using economic sanctions and military force under
Chapter VII of the UN Charter.63 The UN was now willing to engage in
deployments that were no longer conditional upon the consent of all parties, but
could be sanctioned if ‘any party which feels threatened by aggression or by
spill-over from nearby conflicts’ requested such action.64 Such intervention thus
involves both early deployments and confidence building measures in an attempt
to avoid hostilities breaking out into conflict.65 Consequently, the limited notion
of peace-keeping has been joined by a host of more expansive ‘peace-operations’;
including ‘peace-making’ (mediated conflict resolution) and ‘peace-enforcement’
(conflict resolution through economic sanctions/military intervention).66 As
important for our purposes has been the introduction of post-conflict operations
under the rubric of ‘peace-building’. This not only involves ‘mopping up’
operations such as mine clearance, but also institution building and the
improvement of a state’s infrastructure in order to reduce the possibility of
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conflict from recurring.67 The more proactive stance of peace-making,
enforcement and building represent the triad of cornerstones of the new
‘integrated missions’ reflecting ‘a new international will to support the imposed
or externally brokered peace deals that became more common from the mid-
1990s’.68
In addition, the continual monitoring of events within countries with a
focus on early warning and diplomacy has become increasingly important.
Overall, it can be said, therefore, that the UN has shifted its emphasis to
proactive political, social and economic initiatives aimed at nipping any problems
in the bud by addressing the deeper long term difficulties besetting these
countries. As the First Report on the Prevention of Conflict stated in 2001, the
emphasis should be on the ‘deep-rooted socio-economic, cultural, environmental,
institutional, political and other structural causes that often underlie the
immediate symptoms of conflicts’; requiring solutions that encompass: ‘political,
diplomatic, humanitarian, human rights, developmental, institutional and other
measures taken by the international community, in cooperation with national and
regional actors’.69
Soon after (2005), the UN created a commission dedicated to the problem
of fragile states and coordination of reconstruction efforts in the eventuality that
such states collapse. The aim is to bring the various bodies of the UN to bear ‘on
the reconstruction and institution-building efforts necessary for recovery from
conflict and to support the development of integrated strategies in order to lay
the foundation for sustainable development’.70 Significantly, the resolution calls
upon the UN to work closely with the International Financial Institutions (IFIs)
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and to ‘consult with civil society, nongovernmental organizations, including
women’s organizations, and the private sector engaged in peacebuilding
activities’.71
Further to this, the World Bank and UN signed a Partnership Framework
Agreement in October 2008, with the primary objective of enhancing ‘country
resilience to crises, by answering immediate needs and ensuring livelihoods of
vulnerable populations, supporting sustainable peace-building and strengthening
the capacity of national and local institutions for effective prevention, response
and recovery leading to long term development’.72 Although the usual inter-
institutional rivalry has not been absent, cooperation has occurred in Sierra
Leone and Liberia. More recently, the World Bank pledged $1 billion in
development aid in order to support the UN’s peace-building efforts in the
Democratic Republic of Congo. The combination of ‘troops and dollars’ is now
seen to be key to establishing stability in fragile states (The Economist, June 1,
2013). Such initiatives seek to reduce the risk of state collapse and the
instability that arises from such breakdowns and thus enhance not only the
security of the state itself, but also ‘wider regional and global security’ by
preventing the global ‘bads’ that would issue from such collapses.73
Where sovereign independence with regard to territorial inviolability once
held sway, selective intervention has become the norm.74 In order to contain the
problems associated with these islands of instability, discourse and practice have
shifted towards improving these states’ capabilities to monitor and control illegal
activities within their own borders. Moreover, in situations which may lead to
intra-state or intra-regional conflict, various international agencies attempt to
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reduce the possibility by stepping in both to provide economic assistance and
diplomatic solutions but also the military wherewithal to thwart further
disintegration. This security governance of intervention goes beyond simply
engaging in a state on a temporary basis. It is recognised that complex
emergencies involving intra-state conflict, infrastructural collapse, the resulting
social dislocation and inability of the state to provide basic necessities, also
require security complexes – ‘linking state and non-state actors, public and
private organizations, military and civilian organisations’ – to restore order.75
By promoting a shift from ‘governance by government to governance with
government’ the principles of good governance are promoted within these
security complexes without transgressing the IFIs founding principles.76 In
addition, they seek to improve the legal superstructure and its implementation
within governance states.77 The World Bank thus expanded its role to include
‘facilitating the communication of laws more effectively, ensuring the consistency
of laws, updating legal systems, and training the judiciary’ and at the same time
improving the execution of policy by ‘improving training and bureaucratic
procedures, reforming the civil service…improving bureaucratic coordination
and establishing a distinction between public office and private person’.78
Although these practices blur considerably the distinction between the
internal and external realms constitutive of modern sovereignty, the very
purpose of such intervention, paradoxically, is for the various international and
national actors to work cooperatively and collaboratively in order to ‘coproduce
‘sovereignty strategies’ designed to restore the failing state to a condition
whereby it can discharge effectively its sovereign responsibilities.79 The
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emphasis in both discourse and practice on shared responsibility and co-
production of sovereign involves the failing state consenting to participate in a
corrective programme to ‘close the sovereignty gap’80 and thereby produce the
legitimate forms of responsible sovereign subjectivity associated with sovereign
statehood in the early twenty first century.81 In other words, these sovereignty
practices are a technology of risk employed to reduce uncertainty and manage
risk by ‘rendering states visible and predictable actors of a normalized
international arena, that exercise ‘their’ sovereignty in a responsibly and
disciplined manner’.82 In and of itself, the stabilisation of failed states through
the discourses and practices of selective intervention are viewed as being
insufficient, however. As Duffield notes, for policy-makers, ‘[t]he pacification of
post-interventionary society remains incomplete and contingent … whether there
has been a decline in civil war or not, the risk of instability is real and
immanent’.83 The desire to prevent these immanent risks from emerging and the
difficulties associated with doing so gives rise to ‘new challenges and
opportunities to govern’ so that the risk dispositif connecting security, failed
states and development continues to expand.84 The second of the overlapping
phases of incremental expansion explored in this paper, below, is the
securitization of development, whereby the stabilisation of fragile and failed
states and the prevention of risks emerging is explicitly linked to human
development.
Prevention: Securitizing Development
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As a result of the ‘perturbations of neoliberal imposition’, there was a
recognition that if the IFIs policies were to have any success in the least
developed countries, then the problems of state breakdown, whether it be civil
wars, resource wars, conflicts over ownership rights or the emaciating effect of
informal economic networks, needed to be confronted.85 These states thus
became seen as islands of instability from which regional conflict, piracy,
criminal and terrorist activities, ripple out into to the international system
generating further chaos and instability.86 As Mary Kaldor puts it, ‘although
most of these wars are localised, they involve a myriad of transnational
connections so that the distinction between internal and external…. or even
between local and global, are difficult to sustain’.87 As such, the World Bank
views the problem as a ‘crisis of capability. An urgent priority is to rebuild state
effectiveness through an overhaul of public institutions, reassertion of the rule of
law, and credible check on abuse of power’.88 For example, a recent World
Development Report emphasises the importance of transforming institutions
within these countries in order to ensure citizen security, justice and jobs.89 The
report recognises that state underfunding can have negative security
implications not only through a reduction in capability, but also the possible
involvement in informal economic networks – ensuring that ‘the security and
justice sectors are funded adequately and transparently is critical to stem the
diversion of illegal revenues from natural resources or trafficking to the security
forces’.90 Yet, while acknowledging that government programs may provide an
initial ‘bridge’, the private sector is still viewed as the principal source of
employment creation and the report emphasises the importance of producing a
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‘business-friendly environment generating economic revival and setting the stage
for broader reform’.91 From the perspective of the IFIs, the challenge is dealt
with in terms of how to ensure a highly predatorial form of capitalism whilst still
maintaining a satisfactory degree of stability within a country’s borders that will
ensure the sustainability of the transformation underway. In other words, the
lack of what Michael Mann labels infrastructural power – ‘the capacity of the
state actually to penetrate civil society, and to implement logistically political
decisions throughout the realm’ – has led to the embedding of various external
actors within these states providing various capabilities which the state would
otherwise struggle to supply.92
The wider aim of this strategy is ‘to draw developing countries into
regimes of global governance, which while they might have only uncertain
developmental benefits, reflect the desire on the part of Western states to
attempt to govern transnational flows and processes’.93 This emphasis on
transnational flows and circulation is not simply concerned with the ’unblocking
of log-jams, but more generically also with the problem of differentiating good
circulation from bad circulation’.94 In order to achieve this, there has been a new
emphasis on biopolitics, the ‘problems presented to governmental practice by
the characteristic of a group of living human beings constituted as a population’,
at the global level under the rubric of human development. The aim of which is
to strengthen ‘government in terms of the management of populations by
systematically assaying their needs, composition, properties and dynamics in
order to promote their welfare’.95
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The ‘lesson learnt’ is ‘not that neoliberal economic policy is damaging or
contradictory, but that greater attention needs to be paid to the state as an
“embedding agent” and the stability of the sovereign frontier’.96 As a result, the
threats arising from the ‘ungoverned space’ of fragile states have led to the
securitization of development.97 This securitization has involved the ‘reinvention
of development as a form of conflict prevention’ which has, in turn, led to the
‘radicalization of developmental politics. Indeed, it denotes a new commitment
to those strategies and forms of intervention that are geared to the direct
attempt to transform whole societies, including the beliefs and attitudes of their
members’.98 The new consensus can be understood as strengthening and
extending the scope of permissible intervention in recipient countries. For not
only is economic intervention justified on the basis of market imperfections but
also the success of such interventions is attached to non-economic factors. In
other words, the new consensus rationalises intervention by the donor agencies
across as wide a remit as possible’.99
The second phase of structural adjustment therefore entailed the
embedding of capitalism, involving a shift from promoting a ‘reduction in the
scope of state action’ to an emphasis upon the ‘nature of state action’.100 The
IFIs became key agents in a broader ‘global regime of crisis management’ that
emerged largely in response to the African crisis, such that they now concern
themselves with ‘institutional capacity building; civil service (or more broadly
public service) reform; the introduction of new forms of information technology,
finance management and human resource management; technical assistance and
the facilitation of public participation in policy monitoring, evaluation and
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development’.101 The degree of support in the 1990s reached new heights. For
example, in Uganda, ‘NGOs contributed 64 per cent of the running costs of the
health service’ and for Tanzania aid constituted 30 per cent of GDP’.102 But, most
significant is the qualitative change of governance whereby an array of external
actors have become embedded within the very sinews of these states through the
funding and influencing of ‘corporate plans within ministries, departments and
agencies – based on logical frameworks which set out specific policies, executing
agencies, timeframes and funding requirements’.103
By engaging through continual negotiations and enmeshing themselves
within various ministries, donors have attempted to transform key personnel
from simple power conveyors to active participants and purveyors of neo-
liberalism. This has directed the construction not just of sovereign statehood but
also of a particular model of liberal democratic government and state capacity
‘based on the principles of multi-party democracy, respect for human rights, and
“good governance”, together with a view of the state as the essential manager of
a regulated market economy, with responsibility notably for the legal order, the
currency, and infrastructure, and for the provision of basic social services’.104 In
order to bring this about, we now have integrated governance structures that are
not only providing or, helping to provide, the functions traditionally thought to
be the preserve of the sovereign state; these actors are guiding government
policy through ‘a substantial and ongoing relationship’ so that state government
and developmental governance have become inextricably entwined.105
Historical inquiry testifies that insecurity, poverty and development have
been habitually connected. This notwithstanding, the crucial point here is not
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simply that ‘development has long functioned as a liberal technology of security’,
but rather to point to how the recent ‘rediscovery’ of the risks arising from
poverty and inequality have prompted these specific and incremental
adjustments – or reflexive moments - in policy discourse and practice, rather
than a radical disjuncture, along the lines envisaged by Beck’s World Risk
Society thesis. The final phase of incremental adjustment and bricolage to be
explored is how the securitisation of development has been extended to
incorporate terrorism. 106
Extension: Development Governance and Terrorism
The events of 9/11 prompted further development reforms by the highly
industrialised countries which extended the trend towards the securitization of
development. A year after the event Tony Blair stated, at the Labour Party
Conference, ‘we need coalitions not just to deal with evil by force if necessary,
but coalitions for peace, coalitions to tackle poverty, ignorance and disease. A
coalition to fight terrorism and a coalition to give Africa hope. A coalition to re-
build the nation of Afghanistan as strong as the coalition to defeat the Taliban’.107
In this respect, the West acknowledged that, should they fail, ‘to build an
economic and social system that satisfies enough of the needs of enough of the
world’s people, then the terrorists will continue to recruit new allies as our old
friends fall away or turn into enemies or cold, impassive neutrals’.108 In other
words, the linkage between fragile and failed states, civil wars and global ‘bads’
was extended to include the new war on terror.109
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The link between poverty and terrorism is even more contested than that
between failed/fragile states and terrorism. For example, the OECD has long
acknowledged the disputed link, noting that: ‘most poor countries do not
experience terrorism, supply nor support terrorists’.110 Similarly, in its Report on
Terrorism and Development, RAND emphasises that ‘the link between terrorism
and development … is by no means self-evident … [and] a direct causal link
between a lack of development and terrorism has yet to be proven empirically’.111
Yet, despite openly acknowledging this disputed link, the OECD argues that ‘it is
nevertheless important to bring together efforts to fight poverty and
terrorism’.112 Whilst RAND conclude that ‘[t]hese qualifications aside, there is a
noteworthy potential for development policies to reduce the threat of
terrorism’.113
Elaborating its Development Co-operation Lens On Terrorism Prevention,
the OECD explicitly notes how its strategy to combat terrorism extends its
earlier strategic thinking on development and conflict prevention, more
generally.114 From this perspective, terrorism is conceived of as a specific ‘form
of violent conflict and conflict prevention is an integral part of the quest to
reduce poverty’.115 When stressing policies of prevention, precaution and
knowledge are pivotal concepts because it is necessary to act at the earliest
opportunity to avoid disastrous events occurring, but in so doing requires acting
without ‘evidence to support our hunches’.116 Thus, concludes Michael Williams,
‘policy-makers operating within a risk–defined system will increasingly resort to
precautionary polices to manage insecurity.117
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Such precaution had already prompted a revision in the management of
debt repayments, even prior to contemporary concerns about global terrorism,
thus reinforcing the way in which policy has developed by incrementalism and
bricolage. As early as 1996, reforms had been implemented following the
announcement of debt relief via the Heavily Indebted Poor Country Initiative
(HIPC). At the time, 41 states that owed $221 billion were promised debt
reduction, although the sustainability of debt was set at a level (250% debt to
exports ratio) that would still have left these countries saddled with heavy
burdens. The initiative also required the heavily indebted country concerned
make a commitment from the outset to ‘“sound economic policies” – the IFIs’
usual euphemism for SAPs’.118
Therefore, following the failure of the HIPC (only 3 countries had become
eligible after two years), the enhanced HIPC initiative was announced as part of
the World Bank’s Comprehensive Development Framework. This time, the debt
sustainability was set at 150% instead of 250% debt to export ratio. Additionally,
some countries immediately cancelled bilateral debt (UK, Sweden, Norway and
Australia). By 2002, $24 billion debt was cancelled for 26 countries.
Furthermore, just as the UK was reeling from the July 7 th terrorist attacks,
the G8 Gleneagles Summit concluded with the announcement of a total debt
relief that could amount to a total of $55 billion.119 Moreover, there was a
commitment to increase aid by $50 billion over the next five years with $25
billion promised specifically for Africa.120 At the time, the British Prime Minister,
Tony Blair, stressed how the ‘clear signal on Africa, not just of intent but of
detailed propositions for help, stands in stark contrast to the politics of terror
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that we saw exhibited yesterday’.121 However, although this debt cancellation
alongside promised increases in aid was significant (although many countries
have failed to deliver on their stated targets), this does not get away from the
fact that the overall aim of ensuring the continuation of neo-liberalism remains
the underlying rationale.122
This new form of loan conditionality chimes with the general evolution of
developing states into governance states.123 The IMF and World Bank are one of
an array of non-state actors that advise, fund and monitor states’ activities.
Developing states are given greater autonomy in establishing their economic
development. However, their choices remain narrowly confined to those that
conform to the ‘scientific/technical’ economic policies prescribed by the
‘Knowledge Bank’.124 The knowledge of the ‘Knowledge Bank’ thus continues to
reflect and be limited by the imperatives of capitalism and securing free markets.
In this regard, the less confrontational approach adopted by developing states
may simply reflect the fact that ‘pro-reform elites have internalized international
policy requirements and objectives’.125
Once again, these incremental policy shifts do not constitute a radical
rupture in the knowledge practices adopted by policy-makers in their endeavor
to manage contemporary insecurities. Instead, extending the securitization of
development to incorporate terrorism is simply another phase in an ongoing
process of bricolage whereby the prevailing governance discourse and practices
linking fragile/failing states, poverty/inequality, and terrorism are mobilized and
modified by western policy makers to order and manage the perceived risks of
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terrorism whilst reinforcing the authority of sovereignty and liberal (democratic)
capitalism.
Conclusion
This paper has argued that the responses to the events of 9/11 and other
terrorist attacks that followed, although significant, do not constitute a Beckian
reflexive watershed. Beck has argued that such shocks can serve as ‘an
unprecedented resource for consensus and legitimation, nationally and
internationally’, that such events can be ‘averted by political action’ and could
lead to ‘the fundamental principles of modernity, including the free market
principle and the nation-state order itself’ becoming ‘subject to the change, the
existence of alternatives, and contingency’.126 Such shocks are said to induce us
‘to make border-transcending new beginnings’ towards a more cosmopolitan
world.127 However, a fully developed reflexive modernity depends ultimately upon
decision-makers jettisoning tried and tested knowledge practices in their
endeavours to manage contemporary insecurities. Knowledge is the pivotal
concept because in an emerging risk society the modes of insecurity arising from
our actions are unanticipated, unforeseen, unknown.128 The unenviable challenge
for contemporary decision-makers is the unavoidable need to make decisions
under these conditions of ‘radical uncertainty’.129 Illustrating the nature of the
quandary for decision-makers within a precautionary environment, Tony Blair
has asked, ‘would you prefer us to act, even if it turns out to be wrong? Or not to
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act and hope it’s OK? And suppose we don’t act and the intelligence turns out to
be right, how forgiving will people be?’.130 As Michael Williams neatly puts it,
‘[i]t is in making the decision to act on risk that the risk becomes risky’.131 In
other words, there has been a palpable shift in policy-making, wherein the policy
of prudence which ‘recommended what “precautions” to take under conditions of
knowledge’ has been replaced by the precautionary principle which ‘demands
that we act under scientific and causal uncertainty’.132 Nevertheless, however
palpable, this shift has been incremental rather than paradigmatic.
Beck is under no illusions about the deleterious consequences of global
liberal market economics, ‘imposed on indebted countries by the West’.133
However, it can be concluded from the foregoing analysis that Beck is too
optimistic about the possibility that backlashes against the West are prompting
the collapse of global free market ideology.134 The implementation of neo-liberal
reform may have been harmful for many states in the South, but it continues
nevertheless, undermining Beck’s claim that such catastrophes lead to
challenges to expert knowledge and to the rise of a cosmopolitan form of
statehood that will tame global capital. Indeed, interpreted from the perspective
of World Risk Society, western security-development policies continue to be
guided by ‘a non-reflexive rationality’, associated with the first phase of
modernity, because they fail to recognise that the economic problems that they
view as a partial cause of these global threats, arise from the fundamental
economic structure of modern society itself.135
Rather than witnessing a radical reconfiguration of the global economy, the
reforms represent a further extension of the risk dispositif that has resulted in a
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strengthening of previous risk rationalities. The post 9/11 landscape has
witnessed the expansion of the precautionary principle and the linking of
security and development to encompass terrorism. Yet, the IFIs have continued
to implement the rationality of liberal (democratic) capitalism. The politicised
nature of the project has certainly been re-energised, but rather than lead to
radical reform, it has instead prompted specific incremental reform comprising
direct intervention by the West to secure these islands of instability from
immediate chaos, the re-securing of territorial borders and limited development
reform to prevent the emergence of further instability.
Western governments’ responses to the recent crises in Libya and rise of
Islamic State (IS) have continued to adhere to the established tenets of
incremental reform in risk governance. In keeping with their societies’
commitment to risk aversion and an overriding concern to avoid losses of blood
and treasure of the kind incurred in Afghanistan and Iraq, western governments
have ruled out, committing permanent ground troops in any of these theatres
and opted, instead, for more limited intervention at a distance, comprising
targeted raids, no fly zones, aerial bombing campaigns, and drone attacks. In
making their cases for intervention, western leaders have acknowledged the
difficulties in making decisions under conditions of uncertainty and the need to
learn from past mistakes. However, when setting out his position for tackling
the rise of IS before the United National General Assembly in 2014 UK Prime
Minister David Cameron warned that ‘we must not be so frozen with fear that we
don’t do anything at all’ and allow ‘past mistakes to become an excuse for
indifference or inaction.136
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However, determining what these lessons are is uncertain. President
Obama was at pains to stress the need to take early precautionary action in
order to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe in Benghazi and, following the victory
of Libyan rebel forces, celebrate the humanitarian success of the operation.137
Following Libya’s rapid collapse into chaos Alan J. Kuperman has noted how, for
Obama, the lesson to be learned is ‘the need to come in full force’, whereas
Kuperman’s own reading is that the US should not have intervened. 138 The
point to be drawn for our purposes here is that western states appear to have
learned very little and, even faced with entrenched crises in Libya, Iraq, and
Syria exceeding most commentators worst case scenarios, the reflex remains to
resort to tried and tested methods. Consequently, the future for Beck’s ideas
gaining policy traction among western governments is not bright; rather the
future would seem to be further incrementalism and bricolage.
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Notes
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1 Beck, “Terrorist Threat”, 48.2 Cronin, “Behind the Curve: Globalization”, 38; Duffield, “Liberal Interventionism”3 Hameiri, “State Transformation”; Mythen and Walklate, “Terrorism, Risk”; Ericson and Doyle, “Catastrophe risk”; Petersen, “Risk analysis”; Clapton, “Risk in International Relations”; Heng and McDonagh, “After the War”; and De Goede, “Beyond Risk”.4 Rasmussen, The Risk Society, 101. Beck, “The Reinvention of Politics”, 5-8.5 Griner, “Living in a World Risk Society”, 149.6 Beck, World Risk Society, 131.7A variety of related terms such as ‘risk’, ‘threat’, ‘hazard’, and ‘uncertainty’ are employed by those authors employing a Risk Society approach, although their precise conceptual distinction is not always absolutely clear. Defining his own usage of the term, Ulrich Beck states that risk is ‘a systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization itself’. Beck, Risk society, 21 (emphasis in original). The precise meaning attributed to risk here along with its distinction from the related concepts of hazard and insecurity is quickly lost, however, when, on the same page, Beck also notes that the ‘risks and hazards of today thus differ in an essential way from the superficially similar ones in the Middle Ages through the global nature of their threat’. Beck, Risk Society, 21 (emphasis added). This conflation of terms is also repeated by those IR scholars adopting Beck’s ideas. Christopher Coker, for example, refers to both ‘de-bounded’ ‘threats’ and ‘unbounded’ ‘risks’ within adjoining paragraphs with reference to apparently the same phenomena. Coker, War, 74. For Mark Pythian, this ‘linguistic uncertainty’ occurs in part because when ‘writing about “risk” Beck is often actually describing what might be better termed “uncertainty’’’. Pythian, “Policing Uncertainty”, 192. Nevertheless, in her review of this literature Karen Lund Petersen suggests that ‘a distinction between threat and risk is the baseline for understanding this approach; threats being quantifiable, specific and about intention and means-end rationality, while risk is about the unforeseen and not related to a specific incident’. Petersen, “Risk analysis” , 703. 8 Beck, World at Risk, 66.9 Werner, “Responding to the Undesired State” quoted in Aradau and Van Munster, “Governing Terrorism Through Risk”, 95. Scholars adopting a governmentality approach also attempt to distinguish between threat and risk. For Aradau, Lobo-Guerrero and Van Munster, ‘whereas the concept of threat brings us in to the domain of the production, management and destruction of dangers, the concept of risk mobilizes and focuses on different practices that arise from the construction, interpretation and management of contingency Aradau et al., “Security, Technologies of Risk”, 148. However, they too proceed to blur any absolute distinction, noting that ‘there are also important continuities’ in that threat management ‘is also about the management of a contingent future’. Ibid., 148, note 1.10 Rasmussen, “Sounds Like a Riddle”.11 Dean, “Risk, calculable and incalculable”, 151.12 Aradau and Van Munster, “Governing Terrorism Through Risk”, 97.13 Beck, “Terrorist Threat”, 47-8.14 Mazarr, “The Rise and Fall”; Coker, War, 134.15 Aradau, and Van Munster, “Taming the future”, 29, 39 and 49; Coker, Globalisation and Insecurity, 73-4; Rasmussen, “Sounds Like a Riddle”, 388; Mythen and Walklate, “Terrorism, Risk”, 221; Ericson, “The State of Preemption”, 57; Amoore and De Goede, Risk and the War, 99; 16 Ewald “Crafty Genius”, 64.17 O’Malley, “Uncertain Governance”, 186.18 Ibid., 187-9; Rasmussen, Risk Society at War, 101.19 Cooper, “Pre-empting Emergence”, 120.20 Freedman, “Prevention Not Preemption”, 106.
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21 Beck, “Terrorist Threat”, 39. It should be noted at the outset that Beck accords risk an ontological status whereas the Foucauldian approach treats risk as a way of ordering reality; risk is viewed as a construction, a ‘way in which we govern and are governed’. Amoore, and De Goede, Risk and the War, 9.22 Hameiri, “State Transformation”, 382.23 Beck, World at Risk, 52.24 Ibid., 53.25 Beck, “Terrorist Threat”, 42, 46 and 48.26 Beck, World Risk Society, 81.27 Beck, World Risk Society, 131; Beck, “The Reinvention of Politics”, 6.28 Griner, “Living in a World Risk Society”, 149.29 Beck, World at Risk, 66.30 Beck, and Levy, “Cosmopolitanized Nations”, 21 and 25.31 Beck and Grande, Cosmopolitan Europe, 254.32 Ibid., 21.33 Beck, “Towards a Realistic Utopia”, 3 (emphasis in bold added by authors).34 Beck, and Levy, “Cosmopolitanized Nations”, 6.35 Beck, World Risk Society, 80. As Shahar Hameiri has pointed out, although Beck initially emphasised risks arising from our scientific-technical knowledge and practices, since 9/11 he has included terrorism in his category of unbounded risks. Hameiri, “State Transformation”.36 Beck, World at Risk, 66; Beck and Levy, “Cosmopolitanized Nations”, 9.37 Crouch, Non-Death of Neo-Liberalism.38 Dean, “Risk, calculable and incalculable”, 151.39 DFID, FCO and MOD, Building Stability, 8.40 Jacoby, National Security Threats, 12.41 White House, National Security Strategy 2002, 1.42 Piazza, “Incubators of Terror”; Howard, “Failed States”.43 Mair, “A New Approach”, 52.44 Plummer, “Connections to Terrorist Activity”, 416; Patrick, “Global Threats”, 32.45 Patrick, “Failed States”, 644; Patrick, “Global Threats”, 28; Newman, “State failure and terrorism”, 465.46 Patrick, “Failed States”, 644. 47 Bøås and Jennings, “Failed States and State Failure”,477. 48 White House, National Security Strategy 2010, 3 and 8.49 White House, “Counter Terrorism”, 9.50 HM Government, A Strong Britain, 28.51 Council of the European Union, Draft Internal Security Strategy, 17.52 Krueger and Malečková, “Education, Poverty and Terrorism”; Enders and Sandler, The Political Economy of Terrorism.53 Piazza, “Rooted in Poverty?”, 170.54 Krueger and Malečková, “Education, Poverty and Terrorism”, 40-41; Blomberg, Hess and Weerapana, “Economic conditions and terrorism”.55 Krueger and Malečková, “Education, Poverty and Terrorism”, 33; Piazza, “Rooted in Poverty?”, 159.56 Brown, Kennedy Memorial Lecture.57 Beck, “Terrorist Threat”, 50.58 Ghani and Lockhart, Fixing Failed States, 166.59 Duffield, Global Governance, 121.60 Duffield, “Liberal Way of Development”, 63.61 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa, 67.62 Duffield, Global Governance, 121.63 Bretherton, “Security after the Cold War”, 137.64 Ibid., 138.65 United Nations, Prevention of Armed Conflict, 17.66 United Nations Report of the Panel.
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67 Bretherton, “Security after the Cold War”, 141-2.68 Duffield, “Liberal Way of Development”, 58.69 United Nations, Prevention of Armed Conflict, 2.70 United Nations, Security Council Resolution 1645, 2.71 Ibid., 5.72 World Bank, United Nations Development Group, 1.73 World Bank and UNDP, State Building, 4.74 Acharya, “State Sovereignty After 9/11”; Wheeler, Saving Strangers.75 Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars, 45.76 McArthur, “Global Governance and the Rise of NGOs”, 54.77 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa; Harrison, Neoliberal Africa.78 Williams and Young, “Governance, the World Bank”, 87.79 Ghani, and Lockhart, Fixing Failed States, 166.80 Ibid.81 Aalberts and Werner, “Mobilising uncertainty”, 2197.82 Ibid., 2220.83 Duffield, “Liberal Interventionism and the Fragile State”, 119.84 Duffield, “Liberal Way of Development”, 60.85 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa, 128.86 Duffield, Development, Security and Unending War, 1.87 Kaldor, New and Old Wars, 2.88 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa, 13.89 World Bank, World Development Report.90 World Bank, Ibid., 149.91 World Bank, Ibid., 157.92 Mann, “The Autonomous Power of the State”, 113-116.93 Williams, “Development, Intervention, and International Order”, 1216.94 Dillon and Lobo-Guerrero, “Biopolitics of Security in the 21st century”, 280.95 Dillon and Reid, “Global Liberal Governance”, 49.96 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa, 67.97 Duffield, Development, Security and Unending War, 170.98 Duffield, Global Governance and the New Wars, 121.99 Fine, “Neither the Washington nor the Post-Washington Consensus”, 14-15; Standing, “Brave New Worlds?”.100 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa, 18.101 Harrison, Ibid., 4 and 18.102 Harrison, Ibid., 87.103 Harrison, Ibid.,, 89.104 Clapham, “The Challenge to the State in a Globalized World”, 789.105 Williams, “Development, Intervention, and International Order”, 1214.106 Duffield, “Liberal Way of Development”, 61.107 Blair, At Our Best When At Our Boldest.108 Mead, Power, Terror, Peace, and War, 165-6109 Mazarr, “The Rise and Fall”, 114.110 OECD-DAC, A Development Co-operation Lens, 15.111 Cragin and Chalk, Terrorism and Development, 2-3.112 OECD-DAC, A Development Co-operation Lens, 15.113 Cragin and Chalk, Terrorism and Development, xiv.114 OECD-DAC, A Development Co-operation Lens, 10.115 OECD-DAC, Ibid., 11.116 Aalberts and Werner, “Mobilising Uncertainty”, 2184.117 Williams, “(In)Security Studies”, 76.118 Cheru, “The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative”, 73.119 Blair, Prime Minister Blair's Statement on the G8 Gleneagles Summit.120 Blair, Chair’s Summary, July 8, 2005.121 Blair, British Prime Minister Tony Blair Reflects.
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122 As Oxfam reported recently, ‘[i]n spite of the bold promises made in 2005, because of the failure of some countries to meet their commitments, as the 2010 deadline passed for the G8 to increase aid by US$50 billion, only US$30 billion had been delivered in total. While the increase of US$11 billion in aid to Africa, was still way under half of the $25 billion increase promised’. Oxfam, Make Poverty History.123 Harrison, The World Bank and Africa; Harrison, G. (2010) Neoliberal Africa.124 Pender, “Structural Adjustment”.125 Duffield, Development, Security and Unending War, 168.126 Beck, “Risk Society’s “Cosmopolitan Moment””, 4.127 Ibid., 7.128 Frequent references are made to Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘unknown unknowns’ in order to convey this condition of uncertainty. For example see Rasmussen, “It Sounds Like a Riddle”, 67; Daase and Kessler, “Knowns and Unknowns”, 412.129 Radaelli, “The Public Policy of the European Union”; Aalberts T., and Werner, W. (2011) “Mobilising Uncertainty”.130 Blair, Blair’s Terror Speech in Full131 Williams, “(In)Security Studies”, 63.132 Aradau, and Van Munster, “Taming the Future”, 29. However, it should be pointed out that these writers tend to differ from Beck in that they view the representation of risks as constituting a way of governing, a way of seeing the world, with certain consequences, without asserting that this is how the world really is. 133 Beck, World Risk Society, 6.134 Beck, Ibid., 7.135 Griner, “Living in a World Risk Society”, 156.136 Cameron, PM speech at the UN General Assembly 2014.137 Kuperman, “Obama's Libya Debacle”, 66-67138 Ibid, 77.