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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails

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Page 1: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

The Power of Incumbency Fails

Page 2: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Power of Incumbency Fails

The 8th District of Georgia The Candidates The Campaign The Results

Page 3: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The 8th District of Georgia

Race/Ethnicity 61.8% White 33.6% Black 1.0% Asian 4.0% Hispanic

Occupation 45.4% Blue Collar

54.6% White Collar

Median Income $42.5k in state $51.4k in U.S.

Partisanship R +10, PVI

’08 Presidential Vote

McCain, +13%

Page 4: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Incumbent: Democrat Jim Marshall

Occupation Attorney

Political Experience

Mayor, Macon, Georgia, 1995-99

First Elected

• 2003

Committees

• Committee on Agriculture • Committee on Armed Services

Page 5: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Table 9.1 Congressional Vote Scores for Jim Marshall, 2003–10

Page 6: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Challenger: Republican Austin Scott

Occupation

Business Executive

Political Experience

Georgia House of Representatives, 1996-2011

Page 7: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Table 9.2 Campaign Finance Data for Georgia’s 8th District, 2006–10

Page 8: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Table 9.3 Receipts and Disbursements by Reporting Period, 2009–10

Page 9: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: The Polls

July September Late October0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Austin Scott Jim Marshall

Page 10: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Jim”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 11: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Real Important”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 12: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Whose Burden”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 13: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Grew Up”

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Page 14: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Politics is Easy”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 15: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Marshall’s “Taxes”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 16: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Talk”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 17: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Georgia Jim”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 18: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Hard”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 19: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Desperate”

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Page 20: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Tired”

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Page 21: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Times”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 22: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: Scott’s “Go”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 23: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: American Future Fund’s “Trick”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 24: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: American Future Fund’s “Fork”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 25: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: US Chamber of Commerce ad for Jim Marshall on health care

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 26: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: NRCC’s “Jim Marshall Backs Nancy Pelosi”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 27: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: NRCC’s “Jim Marshall ‘s Not Looking Out for Main Street”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 28: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: NRCC’s “Jim Marshall Votes with Pelosi, Not Georgia”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 29: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

The Campaign: NRCC’s “The Real Jim Marshall”

NOTE: Internet access required.

Page 30: The Power of Incumbency Fails. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave The Power of Incumbency Fails  The 8 th District of

The Results

Series10

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

102,770 92,250

Charlie Bass Jim Marshall