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World Population Year
THE POPULATIONI OF
SRI LANKA
CI.CR.É.D. Series
1974 World Population Year
THE POPULATIONOF
SRI LANKA
C.I.C. R. E.D. Series
PREFACE
The preparation of this Monograph on "The Population of Sri Lanka"was undertaken by the Department of Census and Statistics at the requestof the Committee for International Coordination of National Research inDemography {C.I.C.R.E.D) which was established by the U.N.O.
The basic idea of the C.I.C.R.E.D. was to have for the World PopulationYear, 1974, a series of monographs giving for each country, following a common
plan, information on past, present and future trends of population.
When C.I.C.R.E.D's request was received, only the preliminary resultsof the 1971 census were available. Hence an advance 10 % sample tabulationof Census data was undertaken for the purpose of incorporating some up-to-date information in the Monograph.
The preparation of the different chapters of the monograph was under-taken by staff members of the Department of Census and Statistics except forthe chapter on "Economic and Social Implications and Policy" the major partof which has been contributed by the Ministry of Planning and EconomicAffairs.
It is hoped that this monograph, though intended for more general usewill meet the specific needs of all those engaged in the formulation and exe-cution of economic development plans and social policies.
L. N. PERERADirector of Census & Statistics. (Actg.)
Department of Census & Statistics,P. O. Box 563, Colombo 7.23rd October, 1974.
CONTENTS
PAGE
I. POPULATION GROWTH 1II. COMPONENTS OF GROWTH 9
A. Fertility 9B. Mortality 23C. International Migration 29
III. POPULATION COMPOSITION 30
A. Age and Sex 30B. Marital Status 37C. Ethnicity 43D. Religion 47E. Education . 50F. Households and Families 54
IV. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNALMIGRATION 55
A. Distribution and Density 55B. Internal Migration 57
V. THE LABOUR FORCE 63
A. Age and Sex 64B. Industrial classification 72C. Occupational classification 82D. Distribution by Status 85E. Unemployment 87
VI. POPULATION PROJECTIONS 89
A. Introduction 89B. Population Projections for Sri Lanka 1971 - 2001 90C. Trends in Age structure and Functional Age Groups 93D. The Labour Force 95E. The Urban Population 98
VII. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY 101
A. Introduction 101B. Background to the current economic and social situation 101C. Economical and Social implications 104D. Population Policy 111
APPENDICES
PAGE
I. SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 114
II. STATISTICAL TABLES
Table I. Births, Deaths, Crude Birth Rates, and Crude DeathRates •—• Annual figures and averages for Inter-censalperiods 1921—1970. 115
II. Inter-censal increase of population of AdministrativeDistricts 1963—1971. 117
III. Net Migration by Districts, 1963—1971 118
IV. Population and Economically Active Population byAge Groups, 1946—1971. 119
V. Employed Population Classifield by Industry andSex 1953, 1963 and 1971. 120
VI. Distribution of persons employed in ManufacturingIndustries by Sex and Status, 1953, 1963 and 1971. 122
VII. Employed Population Classified by Occupation andIndustry 1971. 124
VIII. Population Projections for Sri Lanka 1971—2001.High, Medium and Low Projections. 125
IX. Projected Labour Force by Sex and Age 1971—2031. 128
CHAPTER I
POPULATION GROWTH
Thé island of Sri Lanka, (1)25,332 square miles in extent, lies tó thesouth-east of the sub-continent of India, almost alongside its southernextremity, and is separated from India by about 20 miles of shallow sea —the Palk Strait. From the south-western lowlands of the country, mountainranges rise to over 7,000 feet above sea level. The s-outh-central area ismountainous and their south-western slopes receive both monsoons andare in the wet zone of the country with an annual rainfall of 100 to 200inches. The country can be divided into three main regions according tothe spatial distribution of population, viz., the low-lying areas of the wetzone, the central mountainous regions and the dry zone, which comprisesthe rest of the country.
Although there is some evidence that the island was inhabited sincepre-historic times it is believed that the advent of Vijaya, a Bengali princewith his seven hundred followers, circa 540 B.C., laid the foundationof the Sinhalese race, (2) which constitutes the majority of the presentpopulation'in the island. Sri Lanka, since that time, had remained Sinhalaterritory until about the fifth century A.D. when the Dravidan rulers fromSouth India gained control over the northern part of it.for a short period.Thereafter, there had been invasions by the South Indians and counter-invasions by the Sinhalese untilthe arrival of the Portuguese in Ceylon in1505 A.D. The Portuguese conquered certain maritime parts of the countryand held these possessions until they were ousted by the Dutch, who ruledover their possessions from 1640 A.D. In 1796 A.D., the Dutch, too,yielded their possessions to the English. In 1815 A.D., the Sinhalesesurrendered their territories to the . British. The island regained itsindependence in 1948.
The frequent invasions by the South Indians implanted in Sri Lankaanother ethnic group which is today known as the "Ceylon Tamil".
What the South Indians achieved through invasions, the Arab«realised through trade. Having come for trading purposes, by 1000 A.D.,they permanently settled in Sri Lanka. Despite inter-marriages withthe Sinhalese and Tamils, they have been able to maintainthemselves as a separate ethnic group on account of the unifyingforce of their religion and this group is today known as the "CeylonMoors". .
(1) Sri Lanka was known as " Ceylon " prior to the declaration of the country as" Republic of Sri Lanka " on 22nd May, 1972. ;
(2) As indicated in the Mahavamsa, an ancient Sinhala Chronicle. .
The Sinhalese, the Ceylon Tamils and the Ceylon Moors were the threemain ethnic groups that existed in Sri Lanka up to the time of the arrivalof the Portuguese in Sri Lanka.
Two other ethnic groups have emerged through European occupationof the island for nearly four-and-half centuries, commencing with the arrivalof the Portuguese. The descendants of the offspring of Portuguese and Dutchunions with the indigenous races came to be identified as "Burghers",while similar unions with the British settlers have brought forth the "Eura-sians".
There are a few other ethnic groups who have made Sri Lanka theirpermanent home. They had either been brought into the island by theforeign rulers as soldiers or had themselves come as traders, or in search ofsome means of livelihood. They are the Malays, the Paravars, the ColomboChetties, the Kaffirs, the Mukkuvars, the Kuravans and the Vaggei. Allthese other ethnic groups taken together constitute only a very negligiblepercentage of the total population of the country.
There is still another group of people who migrated from South Indiainto this country in search of gainful occupation, particularly as plantationlabour, without severing their connections with the land of their birth,during the 125 years preceding the emergence of the country again as anindependent state in 1948. These Indian immigrants in Sri Lanka aremostly Indian Tamils with a sprinkling of Indian Moors. Coffee was thefirst principal commercial crop that transformed the subsistence economyof the country to an import/export economy. It remained the principalcommercial crop from 1830 to 1880, when the coffee industry of Sri Lankawas destroyed by the blight of "Himilcia Vastatrix". Coffee did not requirea resident labour force and during this time the practice was to import Indianimmigrant labour during the harvesting season. At the turn of the century,tea replaced coffee as the principal commercial crop of the country. By1914 tea, rubber and coconut became the principal items of export of SriLanka. Tea and rubber, unlike coffee, required a large resident labourforce and Indian immigrant labour flowed in to satisfy this requirement.As far back as 1930, the Indian Government imposed a ban on the emi-gration of unskilled Indian labour to Sri Lanka. The country's own Immi-grants Act of 1948, amended in 1955 and 1961, restricted entry into Sri Lankaonly to those who had already been in Sri Lanka and held valid traveldocuments. As regards the status and future of the Indian immigrantpopulation in Sri Lanka, agreement has already been reached between thetwo countries and is being implemented on the following basis :—
(a) 300,000 of the Indian immigrants of Sri Lanka with their naturalincrease will be granted Citizenship in Sri Lanka over a periodof 15 years from the date of Agreement (30th October, 1964)
(b) Government of India will accept 525,000 and their natural increaseover a period of 15 years from the date of the Agreement, and
(c) the status and position of the balance will be the subject of aseparate agreement to be concluded at a later date.
An important fact emerges from the numerous invasions, both SouthIndian and European, that took place after the fifth century A.D. and theunrestricted influx of population for gainful occupation. Migration whichhas played a dominant role in the growth of the island's population up tothe end of the 19th century has now virtually ceased to be a factor affectingthe growth of the island's population.
It will not be irrelevant to introduce the religious groups as well in thisChapter, as religion is also an important social characteristic of the popu-lation, which is associated with significant cultural differences and is expectedto yield significant differences on many demographic variables. Buddhismwas introduced to Sri Lanka in the third century B.C. during the reignof King Devanampiyatissa. The new teaching, with the blessings of theruling Monarch, got firmly established in the country, and even today a verylarge majority of the Sinhalese are Buddhists. The South Indian people,who got a permanent foothold in this country through invasions, wereadherents.of the Hindu faith. The Muslims were a religious group bythemselves and Christianity in its different forms was introduced during theEuropean occupation of the island.
There is no evidence of censuses having been taken during the time ofthe Sinhalese Kings, but it may not be incorrect to surmise that populationcounts would have been taken from time to time as the construction of largeirrigation works and dagobas and mustering of troops for war would nothave been possible without records of man-power available for these pur-poses. The only direct reference to the population of Sri Lanka under theSinhalese Kings has been traced to an ancient ola manuscript of uncertaindate (3) said to have been "kept in the temple town of Tissawa in sevenKorales" and according to this manuscript, the population of the islandhad been 70.5 million. Although no records of censuses taken duringthe time of Sinhalese Kings are available, the references to the strength ofthe Buddhist clergy and Sinhalese armies in ancient Sinhalese chronicles (4)and the presence of ruins of large dagobas and irrigation works leads oneto the irresistible conclusion that "there must have been in the island at theheight of its prosperity under the ancient Kings a population exceeding bymany times that found in Ceylon when the British first took count of thepopulation.
There is no evidence of a Census having been taken during the Portu-guese period either and according to evidence available a census had beentaken in Sri Lanka for the first time in 1789 by the Dutch, and according tothis census, the population was 817,000 in the maritime areas under Dutchcontrol. As the purpose of this census was the imposition of taxes, seriousunder-enumeration cannot be discounted. It is generally accepted that thepopulation of Sri Lanka was in the region of 1.2 millions at that time.
(3) Denham : Ceylon at thé Census of 1911, p. 9.A. G. Ranasinghe : Census of Ceylon, 1946, Vol. I, Part I. p. 54
(4) Mahavamsa : 3,000 Buddhist Priests in 300 B.C.40,000 in King Devanampiyatissa's Army in 300 B.C.
100,000 Buddhist Priests in 150 B.C.90,000 Buddhist nuns in 150 B.C.60,000 in King Dutugemunu's army in 150 B. C.
Pujaveliya : 2,125,000 in King Parakrama Bahu's army in 1170 A.D.Rajavaliya : 1,470,000 in the Sinhalese Army in 1300 A.D.
An estimate of the maritime population made by Bertolâccai in 1809gave the population as 700,000. It would appear that the population ofthe maritime areas had declined tó 492,000 by 1814. This may be due tothe exodus: of population from the British administered maritime areas tothe still independent hill country between 1811 and 1815. The first censusof the whole island taken by the British gave a population of only 889,584i n 1 8 2 7 . . . - . : • • . .
: Scientific census taking commenced in Sri. Lanka only in 1871 with thefirst decennial census, which was followed by censuses of population in1881, 1891, 1901, 1911, 1921i 1931, 1946,1953, 1963 and 1971. The decen-nial censuses were interrupted in 1941 due to the second World War and thecensus was taken in 1946. Due to certain reasons, the census due in 1951was taken in 1953, followed by the next census in 1963. In 1971: again SriLanka reverted to her traditional year of decennial censuses. The censusestaken in Sri Lanka give the de facto population of the country on the datesof the censuses. . . . .. .
The following table gives the population of Sri Lanka at each censusand the inter-censal numerical increase of population and the percentageincreases. . . ,
TABLE 1.1. POPULATION, NUMERICAL INCREASE AND PERCENTAGE. INCREASE .
SRI LANKA, 1871—1971
Year
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1946
1953
1963
1971
Date of Census
March. 27
February 17
February 26
March 01
March 10
March 28
February 26
March 19
March 20
July _ .08
October 09
Population
2,400,380.
2,759,738
3,007,789
3,565,954
4,106,350
4,498,605
5,306,871.
6,657,339
8,097,895
10,582,064
12,711,143
Numericalincrease over
previouscensus
, —
359,358
248,051
558,165
540,396 :
. 392,255
808,266
1,350,468
1,440,556
2,484,169
2,129,079
percentincrease
—
15.0
9.0
18.6
15.2
9.6
18.0
25.4
.21.6
, 30.7
20,1
Averageannual rateof growth
- • • —
1.4
0.9
Í.7
1.4
Q.9
•}•?>1,5
2.8
2.7
, 2 . 2
-5
';' \-'T!hè aboye Table shows ¡that ¡hi Hundred years'the population of SriLanka has. increased by 430 percent, the mean rate of the increase beingabout 18.3 % per decennium. Thé mean rate of increase during thé firstfifty years Ms been 13.5%. per decennium as against 23.2 % in .the secondhalf of the century. : ' •''• '••" / : • - •
The growth of population during these hundred years has, however,«oí been uniform. • Until 1946 the average annual intercensalrate of growthnever exceeded 2 ]ier cent. It-fluctuated between 0:9 per cent and 1.7 per centupto the end of the second World War; The postwar years reveal a suddenspurt in the rate of growth. The growth rate which was 1.5% during theperiod 1931—46 shot upto 2.8% in the period 1946—53. It continued tobe high at 2.7% during the period 1953-—63 but has dropped to 2.3% forthe period 1963—7Í.
The rapid increase in the annual rate of growth in the post war.yearshas been brought about by a dramatic drop in the death rate while the birthrate continued to remain at the previously high ievel of 35—40 live birthsper thousand population. The death rate which stood at 20.2 in 1946dropped to 14.3 in 1947. This sudden drop was the result of an intensivecampaign for the eradication of the malaria carrying mosquito with theuse of D.D.T. Since 1947 the death rate has declined gradually to very lowlevels of about 8 per thousand, In 1972 the death rate was. only 7.9 perthousand. A gradual decline in the birth rate too has commenced in 1960and has had the effect of reducing the annual rate of growth. The birthrate which stood at 36.6. in 1960 has declined to 29.4 in 1972.
Until the imposition of strict restrictions on immigration in 1948, thepopulation of the island has grown due to both natural increase andmigration increase. The following Table shows the inter-censal increase ofpopulation, the births and deaths during the ihter-censal periods, the naturalincrease and the migration increase :—
TABLE 1.2. INTERCENSAL INCREASE, BIRTHS, DEATHS, NATURALINCREASE AND MIGRATION INCREASE
Period
1871—1880.1881-^18901891—19001901—19101911—19201921—19301931—19451946—19521953—19621963—1971
Inter-censal
Increase
359,358. 248,051 •
. 558,165540,396392,255808,266
1,350,4681,440,5562,484,1692,129,079
Births
708,150. 836,636
.1,122,0411,459,618
• 1,648,0661,946,1153,209,5202,038,792.3,398,0182,960,754
Deaths
588,358692,376-
' 896,6351,103,471
: 1,328,6561,289,1651,928,604
.. 710,593.
. 884,770752,693
Natural'Increase
119,792144,260225,406356,147319,410656,990
1,280,916.1,328,199.2,513,248'2,208,061
%
33:3758.240.465.981.481.394.8
_92.2101.2103.7
MigrationIncrease
• 239j566. 103,791
332,759184,24972,845
151,27.669,552
112,357"—29,079";
—78,982
66.7. 41.8
59.634.118.6
• 18,7• 5:2
7.8.—V.T—3.7
During the period 1871—1900, the migration increase has exceededthe natural increase in population but its contribution to populationincrease has declined over the period 1901—1952. Thereafter it hadnegative effect on population growth during the period 1953—1962.This trend is likely to continue until the completion of the implementationof the Indo/Ceylon pact for the absorption of the Indian immigrant popula-tion in the island by the two countries.
The increase in population ill recent years has been mainly due to theexcess of births over deaths, and in the foreseeable future the natural increasewill remain the sole factor promoting the growth of the island's population.
Although the registration of births and deaths was made compulsoryin Sri Lanka as far back as 1895, Sri Lanka could realise the completecoverage of these vital events only during the last few years. (1)
Table I in the appendix gives the annual Births and Deaths and thecrude birth rates for the intercensal periods 1921—1930, 1931—1945, 1946—1952, 1953—1962 and 1963—1970.
The mean birth rate for the decade 1921—1930 is 39.8 and the meandeath rate is 26.5. During this period, the under-registration of vital eventsmust have been very high. Therefore, the birth rates and death rates com-puted on the basis of births and deaths adjusted for under-registration willbe much higher than what these figures reflect. This was the final phase ofthat period when conditions of high birth rates counterbalanced byhigh death rates existed before the transition began.
The next intercensal period 1931—1945 shows a mean birth rate of36.7 and a mean death rate of 22.1, while the intercensal period 1946—1952shows a mean birth rate of 39.0 and a mean death rate of 13.7. These twoperiods taken together represent that stage of the transition when a fall inthe death rate takes place, whereas the birth rate lags behind and remains atthe former high level.
The mean birth rate during the period 1953—1962 is 36.5 and is muchcloser to the actual than the 36.7 recorded for 1931—1945. The death ratefor the period 1953-—1962 is 9.7. It would appear that the process of demo-graphic regulation is already in motion, in that a decline in the birth rate isnoticeable in this period and more so in the succeeding intercensal period1963—1970, the mean birth rate for the period being 32.0. Sri Lanka isnow in the late transitional stage of her demographic transition in thatwith a mean death rate of 8.1 during the last intercensal period 1963—1970,.the death rate has reached a low level with no likelihood of a further declineand the birth rate is declining.
The infant death rate was 140 in 1946 and in 1970 the infant deathrate dropped to 50. The maternal death rate which was 15.5 in 1946 has.drooped to 1.8 in 1968. The maternal death rates for 1946 and 1955 to1968 are given below :
(1) See Appendix 1 for an indication of the extent of completeness of birth and deathregistration. .
TABLE 1. CRUDE BIRTH AND DEATH RATES, INFANT DEATH -RATE AND MATERNAL DEATH
RATE : 1946 AND 1955 -1973
Year
1946
1955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973
CrudeBirth
Rate (1)
37.4
37.336.436:535.837.036.635.835.534.433.233.132.331.632.030.429.430.129.727.8
CrudeDeath
Rate (1)
20.2
11.09.8
10.19.89.18.68.08.58.58.78.28.37.57.98.17.57.78.07.7
InfantDeath
Rate (2)
141
71676864585752535657535448505350434546
MaternalDeath
Rate (2)
14.5
4.13.83.73.93.43.02.53.02.42.82.42.21.71.81.51.21.21.21,2
(1) Rate per 1000 Population(2) Rate per 1000 Live Births
In the early stages of a country's demographic transition when the•death rates fall, there is the possibility of birth rates rising as a result ofthe improved health of the child bearing population. Changes infertility levels will be dealt with in detail in Chapter II. One factorthat has influenced the fall in the crude birth rate is the rising averageage of women at marriage, which means less exposure of women to child-bearing during the most fertile period of their child-bearing years.
A discussion relating to the factors influencing the entry of thepopulation of Sri Lanka into the late transitional stage seems relevantbefore the conclusion of this chapter. Low chances of survival promotehigh levels of fertility. The eradication of Malaria and the availabilityof free medical care caused the rapid lowering of the death rate. The vastimprovements in the chances of survival brought about a change in thegeneral attitude to family size. It is generally accepted that there is a verystrong inverse relationship between the level of social and economic deve-lopment and the birth rate. Economically developing countries are com-monly associated with certain social and economic characteristics such aslow level of literacy, poverty, rural predominance, low development ofcommunications and transportation, low spatial mobility, low consumptionof electricity and insufficient medical care, and these countries normallyhave high birth rates.
Although Sri Lanka is an economically developing country,she has made marked progress in social development. The lowliteracy rate of 31.0 in 1911 has moved up to nearly 80 by 1971. On thebasis "of census figures, Sri Lanka is apparently predominantly rural in thatthe percentage, of urban population of 10.8 in 1871 has moved up to only22.4 by 1971. These figures mean very little in a country like ¡Sri Lankaand some effort must be made to understand the extent to which the-urbaninfluence radiates through the country. In 1871, there were only 3 citiesand 16 towns in the island, and by 1971, the number of cities has increasedto 12 with 37 Urban Council areas and 85 Town Council areas. Thetransport services, both road and railway, are adequate to bring even theremotest corner of the island within about a half day's journey from thenearest urban centre. :
The welfare measures adopted by the Government such as freemedical care, ; free education and food subsidies together with theprogressive labour legislation have all contributed in no mean measure tothe improvement of the living standards of the people. These measurescoupled with the improvements in literary and educational .standards,particularly of. the younger generation, have created conditions in whichpolicies aimed at curtailing the rate of population growth are likely to bemore successful. The prospects of a speedy entry into the later stages ofdemographic transition are therefore much better.
CHAPTER II
COMPONENTS OF GROWTHA. FERTILITY
Fertility. Since the turn of the century up to around the year 1960crude birth rates in Sri Lanka remained consistently high
at a level ranging from 35—42 births per 1000 population. During the lastdecade, however, a steady declining trend in the crude birth rate has beenobserved and currently the birth rate is around 30 per thousand.
Prior to 1952 the Registrar General, who is the authority responsiblefor the maintenance of vital statistics, did not furnish information on livebirths by maternal age. Hence detailed analysis of changes in the crudebirth rate during the period 1946—1953 due to changes in the age-structure,marital structure and marital fertility cannot be undertaken.
Birth registration commencing in the sixties is considered to haveachieved a high level of completeness, due to various extraneous factors whichinduced people to register births. A survey conducted by the Departmentof Census and Statistics in 1967, has shown that birth registration was 98.7per cent complete, (1) a factor which considerably facilitates fertility ana-lysis.
TABLE 2.1. CRUDE BIRTH RATES FOR SRI LANKA 1946—1971
Year
19461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959
Crude BirthRate
37.438.639.739.139.739.838.838.735.737.336.436.535.837.0
Year
19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973
Crude BirthRate
36.635.835.534.433.233.132.331.632.030.429.430.129.727.8
Source : Registrar General's Department.
(1) W. M. L. S. Aponso, " Study of the Extent of Under-registration of Births andDeaths in Ceylon " (Department of Census and Statistics, Ceylon 1970).
10
The decline in the crude birth rate between 1953 and 1963 which hasbeen completely documented elsewhere(2), was due to changes in the age andmarital structure. Marital fertility declined very little during the inter-vening period. The corresponding age-specific fertility rates and age-specific marital fertility rates as well as other fertility measures for 1953 and1963 are shown in Tables 2.2 and 2.3 below.
TABLE 2.2. AGE SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY RATES 1953 AND 1963
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-4445-49
Marital FertilityRate (15-49)
Age Specific Marital Ferti-lity Rates
1953 . 1963
288 347394 394339 341280 267174 17547 539 8
251.8 238.3
per cent Decline
5.3
TABLE 2.3. VARIOUS FERTILITY MEASURES 1953 AND 1963
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—2940-^t445-^9
General Fertility rate(15—44)Total Fertility RateGross Reproduc-tion Rate
Age specific
1953
68.8259.3295.1246.0150.138.1
6.8
1953
189.55.32
2.61
Fertility
1963
169.15.01
2.46
rates
1963
52.4226.4276.1238.0157.246.0
6.6
Per cen
Source : Tables 2.2 and 2.3 are from—D. F. S. Fernando, Fertility Trends
t Decline
10.75.8
5.7
in Ceylon1953-68 and the National Family Planning Programme Monograph 17 (Depart-ment of Census and Statistics. Ceylon, 1970).
(2) Nicholas H. Wright, " Recent Fertility change in Ceylon and prospects for theNational Family Planning Programme ", Demography 5, 2 (1968) D. F. S. Fernando," Fertility Trends in Ceylon 1953-68 and the National Family Planning Programme ",Monograph No. 17 (Department of Census & Statistics, Department of Governmentprinting, Ceylon, 1970).
11
Nuptiality Transition. In Sri Lanka females tend to marry males about5 years older. The availability of males and females
at the marriageable ages is an important factor regulating the contracting ofmarriages. An investigation into the availability of males amd females atthe marriageable ages is shown in Table 2.4 and does not indicate anysexual imbalance in 1946 and 1953. In 1963 there seems to be a minorsexual imbalance in favour of the female.
TABLE 2.4. MALES PER 100 FEMALES IN THE AGE GROUP 5 YEARS YOUNGER1946, 1953, 1963 AND 1971 CENSUS
Male ageGroup
20—2425—2930—3435—3940—4420—44
Source : CensusCensus and
1946
103.797.991.2
128.388.0
101.1
1953
116.499.784.5
124.186.5
101.7
Reports of 1946 and 1953 anda 10% sample tabulation of the
1963
88.385.195.9
109.283.491.1
unpublished data1971 Census.
1971
90.673.477.7
102.287.184.9
from the 1963
In 1971 the sexual imbalance seems to have aggravated, since for every100 females in the age-group (15—39), there were only 84.9 males in theage-group (20—44), resulting in a serious "Marriage Squeeze", while if therelative availability is only confined to never married males and femalesthe corresponding ratio is 84.7. The sexual imbalance seems to havebeen further accentuated by the unemployment situation in 1971according to which male unemployment is quite pronounced in theage-groups (20—24), (25—29) and (30—34) in decreasing order ofmagnitude.
Tables 2.5 and 2.6 attempt to summarize the proportion of womencurrently married and never married by five year age groups of the repro-ductive span at the population Censuses of 1946, 1953, 1963 and 1971.Although very little female marital postponement is in evidence between1946 and 1953, there seems to be a definite trend in this direction during thepast two decades, and more particularly since 1963. Estimates obtained atthe Censuses indicate that marriage registration in Sri Lanka was 69 per centcomplete in 1953 while the completeness had improved to the level of 80per cent and 84 per cent in 1963 and 1971 respectively. Since marriageregistration in Sri Lanka is thus far from complete, information on pro-portions single at the various censuses has been utilized to compute theaverage age at marriage (3) (Vide Table 2.7).
(3) John Hajnal, "Age at marriage and proportions marrying", Population Studies7, 1 (July 1953).
12
TABLE 2.5. PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN CURRENTLY MARRIED IN 1946, 1953,1963 AND 1971
Age of Women
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-4445—49
Proportions of Women Currently Married
1946
23.968.484.487.185.578.471.4
1953
23.765.784.487.886.580.773.8
1963
14.857.681.088.689.886.181.6
1971
10.345.973.585.989.387.884.9
TABLE 2.6. PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN NEVER MARRIED IN 1946, 19531963 AND 1971
Age of Women
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-^445-49
Proportions of Women Never Married
1946
75.329.411.86.64.34.13.4
1953
75.732.512.87.55.45.04.4
1963
85.041.317.18.34.84.33.9
1971
89.553.124.610.95.64.33.6
TABLE 2.7. AVERAGE AGE AT MARRIAGE
Male
Female
1946
27.0
20.7
1953
27.2
20.9
1963
27.9
22.1
1971
28.0
23.5
Source : Tables 2.6, 2.7 and 2.8 have been prepared using the respective reports ofthe 1946 and 1953 Censuses, the unpublished tabulations of the 1963 census andthe 10 per cent Sample Tabulations of the 1971 Census.
The female average age at marriage seems to have increased by 0.2years between 1946 and 1953, 1.2 years between 1953 and 1963 and 1.4 yearsbetween 1963 and 1971 thus confirming the observations made earlier, of agreater tendency towards female marriage postponement. • ~ .
13
In this context it is logical to examine whether the female marriagepostponement has also been accompanied by any changes in the maritalstructure of the males. Tables 2.8 and 2.9 focus attention on male marriagepostponement and show the proportion of males curretly married andnever married by five-year age groups. The male average ages at marriagewere 27.0 in 1946, 27.2 in 1953,27.9 in 1963 and 28.0 in 1971 (vide Table 2.7),thus showing that the changes in male marital structure are considerablyless significant than changes in the female marital structure.
TABLE 2.8 PROPORTIONS OF MEN CURRENTLY MARRIED IN 1946, 1953,1963 AND 1971
Age of Men
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—49
Proportions of Men currently married
1946
1.218.955.175.384.385.986.0
1953
0.915.853.376.485.487.286.5
1963
0.915.049.072.885.287.088.6
1971
0.613.646.973.784.988.789.3
TABLE 2.9. PROPORTIONS OF MEN NEVER MARRIED IN 1946, 1953,1963 AND 1971
Age of Men
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—49
Proportions of men never married
1946
98.780.543.422.412.59.37.6
1953
98.783.545.421.711.88.77.6
1963
99.084.750.526.113.110.47.2
1971
99.486.352.625.513.79.47.9
Source: Tables 2.8 and 2.9 have been prepared using the respective reports of the1946 and 1953 Censuses, the unpublished tabulations of the 1963 census and the10 per cent sample tabulations of the 1971 census.
The proportions of never married females in the age-group (40—44)which may be taken as an index of spinsterhood has been remarkably stableat the level of four to five per cent at the 1946, 1953, 1963 and 1971 censuses(vide Table 2.6). Thus the nuptiality transition that has occurred up to1971 in respect of females is clearly the result of marriage postponementand is not due to a higher level of spinsterhood. The observance of celibacyhas been employed in some Western countries in the past as an effectivemethod of fertility reduction. In view of this declining trend in the availa-bility of males of marriageable age and the high levels of unemployment
14
among them, the chances of female marriage are likely to become moredifficult in years to come. A higher level of spinsterhood may also beanticipated and this would no doubt contribute towards a reduction infertility.
The proportion of males never married in the age-group (40—44) whichmay be taken as an index of bachelorhood has remained relatively stable atthe level of 8 to 10 per cent at the 1946, 1953, 1963 and 1971 censuses. Thedevelopments in the coming years are awaited with considerable interest asto changes in the level of bachelorhood in view of the unemployment situ-ation and the inadequacy of males at the marriageable ages.
Fertility decline between 1963 and 1971. The decline in fertility between1963 and 1969 has been docu-
mented in 'Population Studies' (4). The most significant contributoryfactor in the decline in the crude birth rate between 1963 and 1969 has beena change in the proportions marrying. In fact changes in the female maritalstructure have accounted for the whole decline in the crude birth rate between1963 and 1969. But while changes in the marital structure have tendedto reduce the birth rate, changes in the age-structure have worked in theopposite direction. Their net effect was to reduce the birth rate (4). It willno doubt be interesting to note the changes in the marital structure between1946 and 1971. In 1946 and 1953, 68 per cent of the females of the re-productive span were currently married, in 1963, 1969 and 1971 these pro-portions have steadily reduced to 65 per cent, 60 per cent and 59 per centrespectively.
In 1963, women of the reproductive span (15-49) constituted 22.3per cent of the population while in 1971 it rose to 23.7 per cent. Thedistribution by five-year age-groups of the reproductive span in relation tothe total population is shown in Table 2.10.
In all ages of the reproductive span except (30—34) and (35—39), the1971 proportions were higher than those of 1963 thus indicating that the1971 age-structure was more favourable towards high fertility as comparedwith that of 1963.
A detailed analysis of the decline in the crude birth rate between 1963and 1971 shows that changes in the proportions of females marrying accoun-ted for the whole decline of the crude birth rate between 1963 and 1971.The age-structure in 1971 tended to increase the crude birth rate, whilechanges in the proportions marrying tended to reduce it. Their combinedeffect was to reduce the birth rate. The analysis indicates that changes in pro-portions marrying accounted for 100 per cent of the decline in the crudebirth rate while changes in the age-structure was responsible for an increaseof 40 per cent. Jointly they accounted for 60 per cent of the decline.
(4) Dallas F. S. Fernando, " Recent Fertility Decline in Ceylon ", Population Studies26, 3 (November 1972).
15
ASTABLE 2.10. WOMEN IN EACH CHILD BEARING AGE-GROUP
A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION—1963 and 1971
Age ofWomen
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—49
15—49
Women in each Age-Group as a per cent of totalpopulation
1963
4.8• 4.2
3.53.02.92.01.9
22.3
1971
5.34.93.72.82.82.22.0
. 23.7
Source : The figures for 1963 arc based on unpublished tabulations from the 1963census while those for 1971 are based on 10 per cent sample tabulations fromthe 1971 Census.
Thus changes in marital fertility accounted for 40 per cent of the decline inthe crude birth rate.
Family Planning and changes in The National Family Planning Pro-Marital Fertility. gramme was inaugurated by the then
; Government in late 1965. Its objectwas to achieve a crude birth rate of 25 by 1975. Family Planning serviceswere incorporated in the Maternal and Child Health services of the HealthDepartment. The Ceylon Family Planning Association which had beenactively engaged in popularising family planning since its inception in1953, continued to function effectively even after the inauguration; of theNational Programme. In 1971 there were about 500 Family PlanningClinics serving the entire island conducted by the Health Department,various Municipalities and the Ceylon Family Planning Association. Table2.11 shows the new acceptors recruited according to contraceptive devicecommencing from 1967 up to 1971. ;;
Age specific acceptance rates indicate that new acceptors enlisted eachyear commencing from 1968 up to 1971 were respectively 29.6, 32.0, 30.9and 28.6 in relation to 1,000 married women aged (15—44) (5). Furtherthe shjft in the pattern of contraceptive acceptance from the loop to the pillthat has occurred since the second quarter of 1968 is bound to have hadadverse effects on the National Programme and the achievement of thefinal target, in view of the relatively poor continuation rates of oráis, whencompared with the high retention rates of loops, as shown by Sample Surveysconducted in a few health districts.
(5) Reports on New Acceptors of Family Planning, Ceylon, 1968; 1969, 1970 and1971, Office of the Medical Statistician, Ministry of Health, Colombo (Mimeographed).
16
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17
Table 2.12 and 2.13' attempt to summarize changes in Age-specificfertility and age-specific marital fertility during the period 1963 to 1971.Age-specific fertility rates have declined in all age-groups, if the less importantage-group (45—49) is excluded. The decline in age-specific fertility isparticularly marked in the younger years of reproduction (15—19), (20—24)and (25—29) perhaps due to a decline in proportions married. Age-specificmarital fertility too has declined in all age-groups and increased consi-derably in the youngest age-group (15—19).
TABLE 2.12. AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES IN SRI LANKA1963 AND 1971 AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-^445-49
Age Specific Fertility Rates
1963 1971
52.2227.8278.4239.5157.045.8
6.6
43.0178.0230.0203.5140.343.3
6.7
PercentageChange
—17.6—21.9—17.4—15.0—10.6— 5.5+ 1.5
TABLE 2.13. AGE SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITYRATES IN SRI LANKA
1963 AND 1971 AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—Í445—49
15—2930—44
General Fertility (Rate 15—44)Total Fertility Rate
Age Specific MaritalFertility Rates
1963
354396344270175
. 538
366181166.85.04
1971
418. 388
31323715749
8
354155138.74.22
PercentageChange
+ 18.1 !— 2.0— 9.0—12.2—10.3— 7.5
— 3.3—14.4—16.8 r—16.3
Source : Tables 2.12 and 2.13 have been obtained using complete tabulationsfrom the 1963 Census and 10 per-cent sample tabulations of the 1971 censusheld on 9th October 1971 corrected to mid year"! 971. The births by maternalage for 1963 and 1971 have been obtained from the Registrar General'sDepartment.
18
The consistently high level of marital fertility in the age-group (15—19)may perhaps be due to the following reasons; (1) High fecundity on accountof improved health conditions, (2) Pregnancy as a factor influencingmarriage (3) Births outside wedlock. If the reproductive span is dividedinto two fifteen year age groups (15—28) and (30—44) the changes in maritalfertility could be demonstrated more convincingly. Marital fertility ofolder women (30—44) has registered a significant decline of 14 per centwhile that of younger women (15—29) has only registered a slight declineof 3 per cent. The significant decline in the marital fertility of older womenwould perhaps be attributed to contraceptive use within and outside thescope of the National Family Planning Programme, the practice of inducedabortion, higher educational attainment of women and the progress achievedin urbanization and industrialization. The General Fertility Rate (15—44)and the Total Fertility Rate have also declined by 16 per cent during theperiod 1963 to 1971 (Vide Table 2.13).
Cumulative Fertility Rates. At the 1971 census information was elicitedon live-birtfas borne by ever married women
of the reproductive span and are shown in Table 2.14. The live-birthsborne by ever married women (45—49) may be regarded as a measure ofcompleted family size and is equal to 5.6.
TABLE 2.14. LIVE-BIRTHS BORNE BY EVER
MARRIED WOMEN BY AGE AT THE 1971 CENSUS
Age Group
15—19
20—24
25—29
30—34
35—39
40-^4
45—49
Live-births bome per evermarried woman
0.584
1.492
2.720
3.945
5.140
5.522
5.605
Source : The live-births per ever married woman has been calculated using datafrom the 10 per cent sample tabulations of the 1971 census.
19
Urban/Rural Fertility Differentials. In Sri Lanka over 65 per cent of theannual deliveries take place in Govern-
ment Medical Institutions and there seems to be a considerable movementof expectant mothers from rural areas to the better equipped GovernmentMedical Institutions which are usually located at urban centres for purposesof delivery. In many such cases the expectant mothers tend to give anaddress of a relative or friend in the area in which the hospital is situated,instead of her correct home address, for fear of being requested to avail offacilities in a hospital or maternity home nearest to her actual home. Thistype of movement therefore prevents the determination of the correct urbanor rural character of deliveries in most cases, thus detracting the use ofthe Registrar General's natality statistics in the study of urban/rural fertilitydifferentials. Therefore the child-women ratios obtained from census datawere utilized in the study of urban and rural differentials. In 1953 ruralfertility was higher than urban fertility by 23 per cent. A similar patternprevailed in both 1963 and 1971 but a steady narrowing of the differentialsto the level of 20 per cent and 15 per cent in 1963 and 1971 was observed(Table 2.15). These trends are consistent with the higher levels of urbanizationand industrialization that are being achieved with the passage of time.
TABLE 2.15. URBAN-RURAL FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALSFOR SRI LANKA
Child Woman ratio
(Children 0—4 per 1000 females aged 15—49)
Year
195319631971
Urban
549594500
Rural
672712575
Rural
Urban
123120115
100
Source : The child-woman ratios for 1953 have been calculated using data fromthe 1953 Census Reports. The ratios for 1963 are based on complete tabu-lations at the 1963 Census while those for 1971 are based on 10 per centsample tabulations from the 1971 Census.
Regional Fertility Differentials. For the study of regional differentials theisland is divided into four zones on an
agro-climatic basis as follows :—
Zone I—Colombo, Kalutara;-Galle and Matara Districts.Zone II—Hambantota, Amparai, Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, Anura-
dhapura and Puttalam Districts.Zone III—Jaffna, Mannar, Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Trincomalee
Districts.Zone IV—-Kandy, Mátale, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Badulla
and Kurunegala Districts.
20
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•21
••• The relative population distribution according to Zones was :37:7,; 1-2:4",10.2 and 39.7 per-cent in 1963 while in 1971 it was 37.2, 1-3.7, 10.4 and 38.7per-cent. Table 2.16. affords a comparative study of various fertility in-dicators such as crude birth rate, general fertility raté (15-44) and the totalfertility rate for the various zones both in 1963 and 1971 (such as investiga-tion is not. possible in respect of 1953 since separate figures on this newdistrict basis was not available in 1953). . . . . . . •
The rankings of the four Zones as regards.fertility as indicated by „thesethree fertility indices starting from the highest is as follows both in 1963 and1971 : •••
! Zone ir, Zone III, Zone IV, Zone I -, ¡
The indentification of regions of low fertility in' the context of a relativelyhigh fertility situation is of considerable, importance, since the possiblecauses for such a situation could be investigated in great detail and wouldundoubtedly be-applied for fertility reduction in other regions as well.Considerable declines in each fertility indicator-has been witnessed duringthe 1963 to 1971 period. The coefficient of variation of each fertility in-dicator too has registered a decline thus confirming that the inherent variabi-lity of the fertility indices has considerably narrowed during the intercensalperiod 1963'to 1971 (vide Table 2.16). . . ;
Educational Fertility Differentials. Most of the available research evidence; ;., •; : . indicates the negative association' bet-ween female educational attainment and ferúlity(6); Much interest isfocussed especially in developing countries on the potential.use of higherfemale, educational attainment as an effective .weapon in fertility reduction!.Regardless of location, education in Thailand seems to have had á'veryimportant, impact on fertility levels, suggesting that extending secondaryand higher education to increasing proportions of Thai women may'signifi-cantly reduce fertility levels in the Kingdom as a whole(7). At the 1971Census, ever married females of the reproductive span were classified_accordi-ihg to live-births borne for "five different levels" of "educational attainmentsuch as No Schooling ; Grade (1-4)•••;• Grade (5-9) ; passed General Certifi-cate of Education (Ordinary Level) ; Passed Generar Certificate of Education(Advanced Level) or higher. There was a category of women for each levelof educational-attainment where the live births borne was • unspecified:This type of non-specification is quite common in developing countries andtechniques developed by M. A1. El Badry were utilized to adjust the datafor each level of educational attainment(8). Thé live-births borne by. evermarried women (45-49) with no schooling, namely 5,973, steadily diminishestO;5,758, 5,084, 4,094 and 3,240~with each successiye^higherlevel of e'duca-lional-attainment (vide Table 2.17). - • '- '
(6) Wilson H. Grabill, Clyde de V. JKiser, Pascal K. Wheípton—'.' The.Fertility ofAmerican Women ". John,Wiley, & Sons I N C . New York (1958), Chapter ,6 . . . . ...,. (7) Sidney Godlstein " T h e Influence of Labour Force Part icipation and Educa t ionof Fertil i ty in Tha i land " p o p u l a t i o n Studies 26, 3 (November .1972): ,:
'..". (8) M. A . . E l Badry, " Failure of enumerators tó.'mákeré'ntries of Zero : "Er rprs , inrecording childless cases in population c e n s u s e s " Journa l of the Amer ican StatisticalAssociation,"56 ( D e c e m b e r 1961);-.- •;•;.-•••-•.• 1 / - . • ; . . . ; - • • . ; ; • . . : • : - . . . . - . ' ' ;
22
TABLE-2.17 NUMBER OF LIVE-BIRTHS BORNE BY EVER MARRIED WOMENACCORDING TO AGE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND
FERTILITY INDICES CONSIDERING LIVE-BIRTHS BORNEBY WOMEN WITH NO SCHOOLING AS
EQUIVALENT TO 100
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-^1445^19
No schooling
0.6331,6813.1004.4635.7066.0355.973
Grade(1-4)
Live Births
0.6241.6343.0774.4265.4505.6875.758
Grade(5-9)
PassedG.C.E.(O.L.)
PassedG.C.E. (A.L.and over)
Per Ever married Women
0.5341.3652.4803.6654.5935.0805.084
0.3800.9421.5802.4153.2213.5944.094
0.5190.9401.8592.5613.0993.240
Indices
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445-^9
Source : Table
100100100100100100100
2.17 has beer
98.697.299.399.2
"95.594.296.4
84.481.280.082.180.584.285.1
60.056.051.054.156.459.668.5
30.930.341.744.951.454.2
i obtained from 10 per cent sample tabulations of the1971 census after making adjustments for ever-married women who had notstated the live-births borne for each level of educational attainment employingthe method developed by M. A. El Badry, " Failureentries of Zero : ErrorsJournal of the American
in recording childless casesof enumerators to make
¡n population censuses, "Statistical Association, 56 (December 1961).
For other age-groups of the reproductive span too, this pattern is clearlyin evidence. It will also be observed that the distinction between the twolowest levels namely No Schooling and Grade (1—4) is minimal as regardsfertility reduction. Women below age 30 at the 1971 census could haveavailed of the benefits of free education that started in October 1945 but inspite of its free availability 23 per cent females in the age-group (25—29) and18 per cent females in the age-group (20—24) had no schooling whatsoever.Achievement of the highest level of educational attainment could havereduced live births borne by about 70 per cent while the next higher levelwould have achieved about 50 per cent reduction at the age (25—29). Forevery married women (45—49) who had achieved the highest educationallevel a 45 percent reduction in cumulative fertility was noticed while thosewho had passed the next higher level i.e., the G. C. E. (Ordinary Level) a 31per cent reduction was in evidence. A scrutiny of females according toeducational attainment discloses that only 9.7 per cent of the females in theage group (20—24) had passed the G.C.E. (Ordinary Level), while only 9.2per cent have passed the same level in the age group (25—29) in spite of the
23
fact that education was free from the Kindergarten to the University. Theimparting of education with a view to ensuring that a very much higherpercentage of females pass at least the G.C.E. (Oidinary Level), a levelwhich is undoubtedly attainable by a preponderance of our females, wouldcertainly be a very significant factor contributing to fertility reduction.
Fertility Differentialsby Ethnic Group.
The crude birth rates by ethnic groups are shown inTable 2.18 :
TABLE 2.18.—CRUDE BIRTH RATES BY ETHNIC GROUPS
Year
1946195319631969
Sinhalese
38.741.034.530.0
CeylonTamils
35.639.237.627.5
IndianTamils
41.233.028.328.6
CeylonMoors
41.742.742.942.6
Malays
48.845.244.751.2
Burghersand Eura-
sians
35.331.126.917.5
Source : The births according to ethnic groups have been obtained from the Regis-trar General's Department. The population by ethnic groups for 1946 andand 1953 has been obtained from the respective census reports. The popula-tion for 1963 by ethnic groups are from the complete tabulations of the 1963census while the populations for 1969 by ethnic groups are from the Socio-Economic Survey.
The birth rates of the Sinhalese, Ceylon Tamils and the Indian Tamilswho constituted 71.9 per cent, 11.1 per cent and 9.4 per cent respectively ofthe population at the 1971 census have registered a significant decline duringthe 1946 to 1969 period. The birth rate of Burghers and Eurasians too hasrecorded a dramatic decline while: that of Ceylon Moors and Malays hasshown a slight increase. The birth rates of the Ceylon Moors, Malays andthe Burghers and Eurasians who respectively constituted only 6.5, 0.3 and0.3 per cent of the population at the 1971 census have to be interpreted withconsiderable degree of caution, since small errors in the completeness ofbirth registration and under enumeration at censuses in relation to theseethnic groups are likely to cause considerable errors in the birth rates.
B. MORTALITY
Mortality. From the beginning of this century up to the year 1923 thecrude death rate fluctuated about the level of 30 reaching
high levels of 35.1 in 1906, 34.8 in 1911 and 37.6 in 1919. From the year
24
1924 a slight'decline in the crude death rate is in evidence up to the year1945, with a violent interruption in 1935 when as a result of a malaria epide-mic the crude death rate attained a phenomenally high level of 36.6 andeven exceeded the crude birth rate for that year. The spraying of D. D. T.commenced in 1946 and was mainly responsible for the dramatic declinein malaria morbidity, malaria mortality and overall mortality (vide Table2.19).
TABLE 2.19—MALARIA MORTALITY AND CRUDE DEATH RATES1946—1969
Year
194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969
Number ofdeaths due
Malaria
12,5784,5573,3492,4031,9031,5991,049
722: 447 ,
268 •1441771058261433128
81034
171221
Malaria Morta-to Iity Rate per1,000,000 of the
population
1,83564846230225220613289 :
523116191196433110.20.3
1418
Source : Registrar General's Department.
Crude DeathRate per 1000
population
20.214.313.212.612.612.9-. .
: 12.010.9
• 10.4; ii.o
9.8 |10.1 }9.8- ¡9.18.68.08.58.58.78.28.37.57.9
1
The crude death rate attained a level of 12.6 in 1950 thus registeringa phenomenal decline of 37 per cent in the space of 4 years. It may beinteresting to record here that the advanced countries in the West took aconsiderable period of time for the reduction in the death rate from 25 toa level of 10, whereas Sri Lanka accomplished this in a period of about30 years (from a level of 25.2 in 1930 to a level of 9.7 in 1958) whileSweden accomplished this task in 140 years (from a level of 25 in 1820'to a level of 10 in 1960(9). Besides the part played by D.D.T. spraying inthe control of malaria other factors such as the availability of medical
(9) Edward G. Stockwell, " The population Explosion : World, National and Local ",Bulletin 378, Agricultural Experiment Station, Stores, The ' University of ConnecticutJune 1963.
25
facilities even in the remotest areas, improvements effected in the field ofenvironmental sanitation, the ready availability of free education, free milkand the free mid-day meal for School Children, vaccines and antibioticsalso effected considerable improvements in health conditions resulting insubstantial declines in the death rate.
Mortality differentials. Table 2.20 presents an analysis of age-specificmortality rates by sex for Sri Lanka. Significant
declines in age-specfic mortality has been observed for all age-groups for,males as well as females during the period 1946—1968.
The decline in the death rate has, however, not been uniform amongall age groups of the population. Table 2.20 highlights the extent of thedecline in age specific death rates that took place between 1945 and 1950whsn the death rate fell from 21.9 to 12.6 and again from 1950—1968 whenthe death rate fell from 12.6 to 8.0. In discussing these changes it shouldbe noted that the period 1945—1950 is of 5 years duration and that theperiod 1950—68 covers a period of 18 years. The decline in the period1945—50 was very sharp while the decline from 1950 to 1968 has been gradual.
TABLE 2.20—AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATES AND THEIRDECLINE
Age
MalesAll Ages0 - 45—9
10—1415—1920—2425—3435-4445—5455 & Over
FemalesAll Ages0—45—9
10—1415—1920—2425—3435-4445—5455 & Over
Age Specific death
1945
21.461.57.73.66.57.58.1
13.123.478.2
22.763.09.04.57.3
10.811.314.417.290.2
1950
12.246.94.11.41.92.93.55.09.7
42.3
13.044.44.71.72.54.45.56.18.3
45.6
rates
1968
8.515.71.91.31.62.22.44.08.4
42.7
7.314.21.91.01.62.02.33.45.7
41.5
Percent
1945—50
43244761716157625846
43294862665951585249
Decline
1950—68
306654203924312013—
4468604136545844319
26
Jn the period 1945 - 50 the decline in the age specific death rates hasbeen highest, in the ages between 10 and 54 for both sexes. 'For males aswell as females the highest decline has been in the 15-19-age group with thémale rate dropping by 71 per cent and the females rate by 66 per cent;The smallest decline has been for the 0-4 age group with a decliné of only24 per cent in the case of males and 29 per cent in the case of females.
: -The percentage declines in the female death rate has been higher inall the age groups uptó 14 years and also above age 55. But in the age range15-54 the decline in the female death rate has been lower. As the reproduc-tive age group for women is generally taken as 15-44 years the reason forthe lower decline in the death rate for females of this age group could beattributed to the effect of maternal mortality. The overall death rate formales and females has each declined by 43 per cent.
Quite a different pattern in mortality decline of the various age groupsis revealed for the period 1950-1968. The overall death rate for femaleshas dropped by 44 per cent compared to 30 percent for males. It shouldhowever be mentioned that this drop is over a period of 18 years while the43 percent drop in the period 1945-50 was over a period of only 5 years.The age group 0-4 which recorded the lowest decline in the period 1945 - 50has recorded the highest increase for both sexes in the period 1950-68.The lowest decline has been for females above age 55 while the rate formales above age 55 has increased slightly. Also the per cent decline forfemales has been higher in all age groups except in the 15-19 age group.
Another change in the mortality pattern that is striking is that in 1946female age-specific death rates were higher than the male rates in all agegroups except in the 45 - 54 age group. In 1968 however the age specificdeath rates for females in all age groups are either less than or equal to thatof the males even in the female child bearing years. This confirms thatage-specific mortality in Sri Lanka is fast approaching the pattern inadvanced Western countries.
The infant and maternal mortalities too have registered sharp declinesin the post ^war period. The infant mortality rate which was 141 infantdeaths per 1000 live births dropped sharply to 82 in 1950 and then moregradually to 50 in 1968. The maternal mortality rate which was 15.5maternal deaths per 1000 live births dropped sharply to 5.6 in 1950 andthen gradually to 1.8 in 1968. The infant mortality and maternal mortalityrates for 1970 are 50and Irrespectively. The rates for the period 1946-1970are shown in Table 2.21 below.
The expectation of life at birth is a more refined measure of the levelof mortality, as unlike the crude death rate it is unaffected by the age struc-ture of the population. It represents the average number of years of life agroup of newborn babies could expect to live if they continue to be subjectedto the risks of mortality at each age observed for the period to which themeasure refers. . . . . . . . . . -. .
TABLE 2.21. INFANT MORTALITY AND MATERNAL' MORTALITY RATES 1946—1971
27
Year
19461947194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971
' • InfantMortality Rate
141101928782827871727167686458575253565753544850535043
MaternalMortality Rate
15.510.68.36.55.65.85.84.94.64.13.83.73.93.43.02.53.02.42.82.42.21.71-81.51.21.2
Source : Registrar General's Department.
Table 2.22 shows the expectation of life at birth for males and femalescommencing from 1920—22. It will be seen that there have been substantialgains in life expectation since the period 1920—22. The expectation of lifeat birth for males increased from 32.7 in 1920—22 to 46.8 years in 1945—47and to 64.8 in 1967. For females the expectation of life at birth hasincreased from 30.7 years in 1920—22 to 66.9 years in 1967.
Another important aspect of mortality revealed by table 2.22 is thatupto and including the year 1952, the expectation of life at birth was lowerfor females than for males. In 1920—22 the female expectation was lowerthan the male expectation by about 2 years. This male advantage persisteduntil 1952 when the male excess was 2.1. years. Commencing from 1962—64,there has been a definite reversal of this pattern. In 1962-64 the femalelife expectation at birth was higher than that of the male by 0.4 years. Inthe years since 1963 the female advantage has steadily increased with thefemale expectation at birth exceeding that of the male by 2.1 years in 1967.
28
TABLE 2.22—EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH IN YEARS
Period
CEYLON
1920—221945-4719521962—641964196519661967
SWEDEN
1961—65
Male
32.746.857.663.363.063.763.664.8
71.6
Female
30.744.755.563.763.665.065.066.9
75.7
Excess of Femaleexpectation over themale expectation
— 2.0— 2.1— 2.1+ 0.4+ 0.6+ 1.3+ 1.4+ 2.1
+ 4.1
Source : T. Nadarajah—Life Tables, Ceylon 1962-1967, Department of Census& Statistics, Ceylon 1970.
Thus, Sri Lanka which has often been cited as one of the very fewcountries with a lower female life expectation has now joined the muchlarger group (which includes all the developed countries) in which femalelife expectation is higher than that of the male.
Cause of Death. The declines in the death rates have been achieved bygreater control over the causes of death through a number
of measures such as the eradication of the malaria mosquito by the. use ofD.D.T., the use of antibiotics, extension of health education and improve-ments in environmental sanitation and other public health measures. Table2.23 shows the death rates per 100,000 population due to broad cause groupsand the changes between 1945 and 1949 in which period the dramatic fallof the death rate occured and again from 1953 to 1965.
The death rate for infectious and parasitic diseases has shown the steepestdecline with the rate in 1965 being only a fifth of the 1941 rate. Deathrates for cancer and diseases of the circulatory system have shown increaseswhich may be partly accounted for by improved diagnosis and reporting.The death rate from violence has declined to about two thirds of the 1945value while the death rate from all other causes has declined by the sameproportion as deaths due to all causes. '
29
TABLE 2.23. DEATH RATES DUE TO BROAD CAUSE GROUPS1945, 1949, 1953 AND 1965
1. All Infectious and para-sitic diseases
2. Cancer
3. Diseases of the circulatorySystem
4. Deaths by Violence
5. All other causes
All Deaths
Death Rate per 100,000Population
1945
607
13
61
54
1,416
2,149
1949
331
14
48
44
795
1,233
1953
230
16
77
42
709
1,074
1965
115
27
95
36
547
822
Index 1945=100
1945
100
100
100
100
100
100
1949
55
108
79
81
56
57
1953
38
123
126
78
50
50
1965
19
208
156
67
39
38
C. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
During the last three decades of the 19th century, immigration played avery vital role in the population growth of the island. During the three inter-censal periods 1871—1881,1881—1891 and 1891—1901 the migration increaseconstituted 66.7, 41.8 and 59.6 per-cent of the respective intercensal increasesin population. The migration increase was occasioned by the influx of labour-ers from South India to work in the plantations of the hill country. In thefirst three decades of this century migration contributed to a lesser extentto population growth. Restrictive policies relating to immigration adoptedby the government in the thirties have considerably reduced the migrationcontribution to the intercensal increase during 1931—46 to the level of only5.2 per cent. In contrast the intercensal periods 1953—1963 and 1963—1971were characterized by migration losses although these losses constitutedeven less than 1 per cent of the respective intercensal increases.
Since the death rate in Sri Lanka has stabilized itself at the level ofnearly 8 per 1,000 population, while net migration (which is negative) iscomparatively negligible at the level of even less than 1 per 1,000 population,all attention is focussed on the birth rate, and the effective methods by whichit could be reduced, so that economic development could make asignificant contribution to the betterment of living standards of the vastmajority of the population.
Loss of population through emigration is likely to continue at a fasterpace for at least a decade or two with progress in the repatriation of personsof Indian origin opting to return to India und;r the Indo-Ce/lon Agreementreferred to in Chapter I.
CHAPTER III
POPULATION COMPOSITIONA. AGE AND SEX
Age and Sex. In Demographic and related studies, sex' is a factor ofprime importance. Besides, for many purposes of
social and economic planning, separate data for males and females arerequired. The balance of the sexes affects social and economic relationshipswithin a community.
In Sri Lanka statistical data on natality, mortality, migration, maritalstatus and economic characteristics of the population are generally tabulatedseparately for males and females. The definition and classification of sexpresent no statistical problems. It is an item that has been included inevery census questionnaire from the very beginning and for which informa-tion is easily obtainable from census reports. Estimates of the sex distribu-tion of the population for Sri Lanka as a whole are also available for eachyear and appear in the Sri Lanka Annual Vital Statistics Reports. Almostevery characteristic in the 1971 Census tabulation was cross classified bysex. The principal problem relating to the quality of the data on sex collect-ed in censuses concerns the differential completeness of coverage of the twosexes. The number of persons whose sex was not reported in the 1971census was quite small. In such cases sex was assigned on the basis ofother information given in the census schedule.
The numerical measures of sex composition are few and simple tocompute. They are (1) percentage of males in the population or the masculi-nity proportion and (2) the sex ratio or masculinity ratio. These measures'are useful for comparison over space or time.
At the 1971 census of population of Sri Lanka, 51.3 percent of thepopulation was reported as males and 48.7 percent as females. The sexratio expressed in terms of number of males per 1,000 females is observedto be 1055.
At every census taken from 1871 onwards there has been an excess ofmales over females. (See Table 3.1 below). This is a characteristic featureof most developing countries in contrast to the situation in most countriesof Western. Europe where there is an excess of females over males.
It will be seen from Table 3.1 that the sex ratio has remained at a highlevel for a long period, but a declining trend has been observed since 1946.The higher ratio of males to females in the earlier censuses is due: to inter-action of several factors. In the first place, the number of male births hasthroughout exceeded the number of female births every year. Secondly,the female death rate at most ages has been generally higher than that of
31
TABLE 3.1. POPULATION OF SRI LANKA, CLASSIFIED BY SEX. . . 1871—1971
Census Year
18711881
. 18911901191119211946195319631971
Total
2,400,3802,759,7383,007,7893,565,954 .4,106,3504,498,6056,657,3398,097,895
10,582,06412,711,143
Males
1,280,1291,469,5531,593,3761,896,2122,175,030 "2,381,8123,532,218 .4,268,7305,498,6746,525,948
Females
1,120,2511,290,1851,414,4131,669,7421,931,3202,116,7933,125,1213,829,1655,083,3906,185,195
Ratioof males per
: 1000 females
1143113911271135112611251130111510821055
the male. Thirdly, in the past, there has been an excess of male immigrantsover female. Lastly,-it is possible that-there may have been an under-enumeration of females at the various censuses. The decliné in the SCXTratio in recent years may be attributed to the reduction in the female morta7lity and increase in the life expectancy of women: In fact since 1963, morta-lity rates for females have been lower than that of males in all age groupsexcept in the child bearing age groups. :
Sex Ratio at birth. The balance between male and female births in thehuman population has been shown to be very stable.
It has undergone so little change that it was earlier believed that naturecompensated for the loss of males during war years by producing more male
TABLE 3.2. NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS IN SRI LANKA BY SEX 1961—71SHOWING RATIO OF MALE BIRTHS PER 1000 FEMALE BIRTHS
Year
19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971
Male Births
184,984188,938186,484183,721187,757187,796187,575195,601189,370187,535195,397 ,
Female Births
178,693181,824179,358177,856181,680181,357181,956188,577183,404180,366187,083
Ratio of male births per1000 female births
10351039104010331033103610311037103310401044
32
births. It has been estimated that at the moment of conception the ratioof males to females may be in the order of 160 to 100. Excess male morta-lity has been found in various stages of foetal life. Even then, at the timeof birth the sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) still averages from103 to 104. Table 3.2 gives the number of registered live births since 1961and shows the number of males born per 1000 females in each year in SriLanka.
It is observed that there is a differential in the sex ratio at birth withabout 4 additional male births to every 100 female births. But this initialgain is lost because of the relatively larger number of male infant deaths.Table 3.3 shows the number of infant deaths by sex during the first year oflife in 1961—1971. It is observed that the number of male infant deathsis still very high and averages about 1,234 for every 1000 female infantdeaths.
TABLE 3.3. INFANT DEATHS BY SEX DURING 1961—1971
Yea,
19611962196319641965196619671968196919701971
Males
10,34210,80011,33111,39410,81011,0939,846
10,70210,7589,6649,537
Female
8,5998,7679,1009,1708,8468,9067,7998,6108,9057,8027,618
Ratio of Males per 1000females
12031232124512431222124612621243120812391252
f
Sex-ratio by age group. Though the overall sex-ratio was 1055 in 197 1,males out numbered females only slightly at ages
below 30 years. The sex-ratio which was 1041 for the 30—34 age-groupincreased steadily to a peak of 1272 for the 60—64 age group. The com-parison of the sex-ratio for the census years from 1946 onwards is shown inTable 3.4.
Tt is seen that in every age group except 0—4 and 5—9 the sex ratio in1971 is less than that of the previous years. This is partly a consequence ofthe relatively greater improvement in recent years in the female mortalityrates as compared with the male.
33
TABLE 3.4 SEX-RATIO; MALES PER 1000 FEMALES BY FIVE YEARAGE GROUPS 1946—1971
Age Groups
0 — 45 — 910 — 1415 — 1920 — 2425 — 2930 — 3435 — 3940 — 4445 — 4950 — 5455 — 5960 — 6465 & overAll Ages
1946
103210311060115310451137121212601304134711481383120111901130
1953
101510261066107410611099121212001304132913481367120812031115
1963
102610201047102810061020112311071217125312751371134812121082
1971
1030102410451014976978104110071131110911421125127211801055
Age Composition. Age is another item of information collected in everycensus in Sri Lanka since 1871. Age is a continuous
variable that follows by ever-increasing amounts from birth till death. Atthe last census of 1971 age was reported in terms of completed years andalso by date of birth. As in other developing countries, digit preference,and age heaping are observed in all the censuses taken in Sri Lanka but theextent of such errors have diminished in the recent censuses. With highincreased literacy due to compulsory schooling, age appears to be reportedmore correctly now than in the earlier censuses.
Age composition and fertility. Differences in age composition of popula-tion could be explained in terms of differ-
ences in birth rates. Sri Lanka with a high birth rate has a populationheavily weighted towards the younger $ge groups whereas countries withlow birth rates have a high proportion of their population at the middle andupper ages. In the 1971 census 39.3 percent of Sri Lanka's population wasin the 0—14 age group (See Table 3.5) as compared to about 20 per-cent to30 per-cent in the developed nations.
Age statistics are of fundamental importance in demographic as well as inall social science analysis, in that they reflect changes in behaviour at variousstages of the life cycle. Throughout history every society has placed itsown interpretation on the social meaning of the life cycle. There is a
34
TABLE 3.5. POPULATION OF SRI LANKA BY FIVE YEARAGE GROUPS AND SEX -1971 CENSUS
Age Group
All AgesUnder 1
1—4; 5—9
10—1415—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—4950—5455—5960—6465—6970—7475—7980^-8485 & over
BothNumber
12,712,277349,186
1,339,4911,686,3311,622,7081,365,0771,242,434
933,434719,176717,637586,176548,149421,634339,478272,274226,505162,73775,86848,23635,715
SexesPer cent
100.0"2.710.513.312.810.79.87.35.75.64.64.33.32.8
. 2.11.81.30.60.40.3
MaleNumber
6,497,494178,167678,677853,093829,130687,270613,820461,496366,780360,176311,198288,238224,805195,036152,410124,13591,48638,746
. 25,37817,461
Per cent
100.02.7
10.413.112.810.69.47.15.65.54.84.43.53.02.31.91.40.60.40.3
FemaleNumber
6,214,783171,019660,814833,238793,578677,807628,614471,938352,396357,511274,978259,911196,829164,442119,864102,37071,25137,12222,85818,254
Per cent
100.02.8
10.613.412.810.910.1
7.65.75.84.44.23.22.61.91.61.10.60.40.3
socially appropriate ags at which, to attend school, to leave the parentalhousehold, to enter the working force, to contract marriage and so on.The limitations of strength and physical and mental agility determine thesocial prescriptions. But to some extent they are determined by traditionor administrative rules. For example in Sri Lanka the normal age for astate officer to retire from service is 55 years whereas in United States it is65. Cultural differences greatly affect the rate of growth of the population,principally through age at marriage and the age pattern of child bearing.In Sri Lanka the 25—29 year age group is the peak age of child bearing andvery little child bearing take place after age 40 whereas in some populationsthe peak age group of child bearing is 20—24.
The population of Sri Lanka by single years of age and sex has beentabulated at recent censuses. Examination of these data show that thereis-an undue concentration of reported numbers at ages ending in 0 and 5.It is thus clear that there has been an almost alternating understatement andoverstatement of age at the censuses. Indication of error in the single yeardistribution does not constitute a very good guide for evaluating the fiveyear age distribution. There are several methods for testing the accuracyof an age-group tabulation. One method is to compare the sex-ratio ofsuccessive age groups as recorded at the census. If the distributions areaccurate or if errors for males are as frequent and of the same kind as thosefor females, sex-ratios will change very gradually from one age to another.The presence of marked fluctuations in these ratios testifies to errors whichare not the same for the two sexes. / • • • -
Table 3.6 indicates that there has been a considerable improvement inthe age reporting between 1946 and 1971 censuses. . •
35
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36
It is also possible to derive a measure of the degree of variability exhibi-ted by sex and age ratios by computing a 'sex-ratio score', and an " age-ratioscore ". The sex ratio score has been defined as the mean difference betweensex ratios for the successive age groups, averaged irrespective of sign, whilethe ' age ratio score ' has been defined as the mean deviation of age-ratiosfrom 100 per-cent, also irrespective of sign. With the help of these twoscores it is convenient to arrive at a 'joint score ' which will take accountof the variation in the sex as well as the age ratios. A joint score is computedby adding three times the sex-ratio score to the sum of the age ratio scoresfor the two sexes. The sex-ratio scores, the age-ratio scores and the jointscores calculated from the censuses of population of 1891, 1921, 1946, 1953,1963 and 1971 are given in Table 3.7 below :
TABLE 3.7. SEX-RATIO SCORE, AGE RATIO SCORE ANDJOINT SCORES FOR POPULATION CENSUS YEARS
Sex Ratio ScoreAge Ratio Score : Male
FemaleJoint Score
1891
32.029.449.0
174.4
1921
22.014.117.497.5
1946
9.612.211.352.3
1953
4.48.8
11.033.0
1963
4.68.89.4
32.0
1971
4.74.55.4
24.0
It is evident from the above Table that the scores for the earlier cen-suses were higher than those for recent censuses. This means that the errorsin age reporting were greater in the past and that there has been a gradualimprovement in age reporting over the years.
Dependency Ratio. Dependency ratio is used to measure the impact ofage composition on the livelihood activity of the
population. It is assumed that the age group 15—64 years is the productivesegment of the population and children under 15 years and elderly personsaged 65 years and over are considered as the dependent segment. A crudemeasure of the dependency load that the productive population must bearis the ratio of the population under 15 years and 65 years and over to thepopulation aged 15 to 64 multiplied by 100. In Sri Lanka the populationunder fifteen years is 39.3 per-cent and the population 65 years and overconstitutes only 4.5 per-cent unlike the developed countries where theproblem is one of ageing population where nearly 18 to 20 per-cent consistof old people. Table 3.8 shows the distribution of the 1971 census populationby broad age groups.
37
TABLE 3.8. POPULATION BY BROAD AGE GROUPS AND SEX 1971
Age Group
All Ages0—14
15—6465 and Over
Total
Number
12,712,2774,997,7067,165,500
549,068
7o
100.039.356.34.4
Male
Number
6,497,4942,539,0673,661,207
297,230
0/
/o
100.039.156.34.6
Female
Number %
6.214,7832,458,6493,504,293
251,838
100.039.656.44.0
It is observed that the dependency ratio of the youth and the aged haveincreased during the post war period. The dependency ratio of childrenaccording to the 1971 census of population is 70.0 per-cent. But this ratioin 1946 was only 62.8 per-cent. The dependency load of the aged in 1971was 7.7 per-cent as compared to 5.8 per-cent in 1946.
B. MARITAL STATUS
Marital Status. Marital status is an important factor in populationdynamics as it effects fertility to a large degree and
mortality and migration to a lesser extent. Almost all cultures recognizefour marital statuses—single (never married), married, widowed anddivorced. Each status has religious, legal as well as social significance.Most religions soleminize changes in status with a ceremony.
Marriage Laws. The registration of vital events including marriages wasintroduced in Sri Lanka in 1867, though the earliest law
in regard to registration of marriages was passed in 1847, and has since beenamended from time to time. Three distinct systems of marriage operate,one for the general population, one for Kandyan Sinhalese and one for theMuslims. The marriage law enacted in 1907 is now in operation. Thesolemnisation of Christian marriages is usually performed by a Christianminister in church upon the certificate of a Registrar of Marriages. Non-christian marriages are solemnized by the Registrar himself, but manyHindus do not allow consummation unless the marriage ceremony, whichis regarded as a religious and sacred rite, is performed by a priest.
The Kandyan marriage law was passed in 1870 embodying the ancientmarriage laws and customs of the Sinhalese. These customs included thepractice of polyandry and ploygamy, but both these practices had beenlegally abolised in 1859. This practice prevailed in some remote villagesin Kandyan Districts even in the first few decades of this century, thoughit is now believed to have died out.
38
The registration of Muslim marriages is regulated by a law enactedin 1886 and subsequently modified in certain details. Although religionand law permit Muslims four wives at a time monogamy is the moregeneral form of marriage among muslims in Sri Lanka.
Marital status was included in the questionnaire of the first real censusin 1871, but was omitted in the subsequent censuses of 1881 and 1891 becauseit was found that the information collected in 1871 was not reliable on accountof the prevalent uncertainty as to what constituted a legal marriage. Latermuch of the uncertainty was removed by holding that registration was notessential for the validity of a marriage and that the marriage relationshipcould be presumed on adequate evidences of cohabitation and repute.From 1901 onwards marital status was once again included as a subject ofinquiry at the censuses. The entry 'married' was made in the case of aperson claiming to be married according to custom or repute, though themarriage raay not have been registered according to the law.
In the census reports of 1911 and 1921 it was recorded that enumeratorswere inclined to enter the parties to unregistered marriages as " unmarried "with the result that the figures relating to the number of married persons inSri Lanka were generally regarded with suspicion. With a view to eliminatethis source of error from the 1946 census onwards, the enumerators wereinstructed to record registered and customary marriages separately.
The married population. At the 1971 census out of a total of 2,133,481married males, 1,751,123 or 82 per cent had
their marriages registered among 2,229,734 married females 1,820,286 or 82per cent had their marriages registered.
At the 1946 census the percentage of registered marriages was 69 percent. These figures reveal that at present more people are having theirmarriages registered to give it a legal binding and that the porportion of per-sons marrying according to custom has declined appreciably.
TABLE 3.9. POPULATION 15 YEARS AND OVER BY MARITAL STATUS 1971
Never MarriedMarried Regis-terdMarried Cus-tomaryWidowedDivoredLegally separat-ed
Total
Total
Number
2,885,655
3,571,409
791,806426,924
19,495
19,293
7.714,582
/ o
37.4
46.3
10.35.30.3
0.2
100.0
Male
Number
1,716,274
1,751,123
382,35893,060
7,899
7.716
3,958,430
/ o
43.3
44.2
9.62.20.3
0.2
100.0
Female
Number
1,169,381
1,820,286
409,448333,864
11,596
11,577
3,756,152
%
34.1
48.5
10.98.90.3
0.3
100.0
39
In the 1971 Census out of 4,828,927 ever married persons of age 15 yearsand over 74.0 per cent had their marriage registered and 16.4 per cent weremarried according to custom. 90 per cent of the ever married population15 years and over were currently married as on the census date while 9.per cent were widowed. Divorced and legally separated formed only oneper cent. 626 persons out of every 1000 persons aged 15 years and over or380 persons out of every 1000 persons of the total'population were reportedas married. When these proportions are worked out separately for thetwo sexes, it is observed that 566 males out of 1000 males aged 15 years andover or 345 males out of 1000 males of all ages were married as on the censusday. The corresponding figures for females were 689 out of 1000 femalesaged 15 and over or 417 females out of every 100 females of all ages.
Age at Marriage. Age at marriage, especially of females has been knownto be low in Sri Lanka since the beginning of the Christ-
ian Era. But in recent years an increasing trend in the mean age at marriageis observed, although available marriage registration data do not substantiatethis fact (see table 3.10 below).
TABLE 3.10. AVERAGE AGE AT MARRIAGE FORFEMALES FROM REGISTRATION DATA
Year
196119621963196419651966196719681969
Female age atmarriage
22.723.123.223.824.822.423.223.623.5
Source : Registrar General's Report.
It should, be noted that the above data relate only to all registeredmarriages, which comprise about seventy per cent of total marriages.
Sihgulate mean age at marriage. The singulate mean age at marriagecalculated from the census data is shown
in Table 3.11. It is calculated frorii the proportions who remained singleon census dates.
40
TABLE 3.11. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE 1901 TO 1971
Census Year
1901191119211946195319631971
Singulate Mean Age at marriage
Males
24.626.527.027.027.227.928.0
Females
18.320.821.420.720.922.123.5
Singulate mean age at marriage in 1971 was 28 years for males and 23.6years for females. Though there is not much of a change in the male ageat marriage the female age at marriage has increased by 1.4 years during theperiod 1963 to 1971. Looking at the sequence of the mean ages at marriagefrom 1901 onwards, it is evident that there has been a steady increase infemale singulate mean age at marriage up to end of 1921 when it reached21.4 years. In 1946 it dropped slightly to 20.7 years and since then it hassteadily increased to 23.5 years in 1971. The singulate mean age at marriagehas increased by 1.2 years in the decade 1953 to 1963, and by 1.4 years duringthe intercensal period 1963 to 1971.
The District-wise figures (Table 3.12) show that the singulate meanage at marriage for various Districts had increased by 1 to 2.3 years duringthe period 1963—71, as against a 1.4 years increase for the country as awhole. It may be noted that while no District recorded any fall duringthe period, eighteen out of the twenty two Districts have recorded an increaseof more than the national increase of 1.4 years. The highest increase of 2.3years was recorded in Anuradhapura and the lowest increase of one yearwas recorded in Galle District.
It is observed from recent census and survey data that more women aredelaying marriage or not marrying at all. This trend is indicated by theproportion of women currently married in different age groups. Theproportion of currently married women has declined considerably in thethree age groups 15—19, 20—24 and 25—29. Since some of the womenwho do not get married when they are still young may continue to remainunmarried in the future, the proportion married in the older age groupswould also decline. Late marriage could be attributed to the fact that anincreasingly large proportion of girls are now completing their senior secon-dary education and also entering the labour force.
41
TABLE 3.12. SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT MARRIAGE FORFEMALES BY DISTRICT IN 1963 AND 1971
Districts
ColomboKalutaraKandyMátaleNuwara EliyaGalleMataraHambantotaJaffnaMannarVavuniyaBatticaloaAmparaiTrincomaleeKurunegalaPuttalamAnuradhapuraPolonnaruwaBadullaMonaragalaRatnapuraKegalleSri Lanka
Singulate mean age atmarriage for Females
1963
23.324.022.020.821.624.824.221.421.718.518.618.218.218.120.920.719.119.021.218.822.022.522.1
1971
24.425.224.022.723.425.825.723.523.420.220.320.120.119.722.822.121.421.023.321.023.824.423.5
Increase
1.11.22.01.91.81.01.52.11.71.71.71.91.91.61.91.42.32.02.12.21.81.91.4
It is evident from table 3.13 that between 1953 and 1971 the proportionof currently married females has dropped in the age group 15—19 by 56.5per cent and in the 20—24 group by 30.2 per cent and in the 25—29 groupby 13 per cent. However for the other age-groups, there appears to have
TABLE 3.13. PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CURRENTLYMARRIED BY AGE GROUP 1953—1971
Age Group
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—4915—49
1953Census
23.765.884.487.886.580.773.868.4
1963Census
15.057.480.989.289.986.181.765:2
1971Census
10.345.973.585.989.387.884.959.2
42
been an increase in the proportion married, probably due to a reductionin the incidence of widowhood. The marked reduction in the proportionmarried at ages under 30 years is one of the factors responsible for the declinein fertility observed in recent years.
Marital Disruption. Persons who are widowed, divorced or separatedfrom their spouse comprise that segment of, the
evermarried population who are living in a state of marital disruption.This status can be lost by remarriage or death. The proportion of thepopulation who are in this status is an important demographic factor forfertility studies. In Sri Lanka, at every Census, figures on marital disruptionare available, but it is only from the 1946 Census onwards that the figuresrelating to the widowed and divorced have been tabulated separately.
TABLE 3.14. PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION WIDOWEDAT SPECIFIED AGES IN CENSUS YEARS
Year
1901191119211946195319631971
Percent Widowed by age—Census yearsAge
30
14.010.610.95.94.11.60.7
35
24.016.517.49.87.53.01.3
40
31.527.127.317.113.65.32.5
45
42.434.435.424.821.1
8.13.9
50
48.545.345.734.832.313.36.2
It is seen from table 3.14 that at the 1971 Census only 6.2 per centwere widowed by the age of 50 while at the turn of this century in 1901,about 48.5 per cent at this age were widowed. The total number of personswidowed at the 1971 census was 426,985 or 3.4 per cent The correspon-ding figure in 1946 when mortality started to decline was 363,235 or 5.4per cent.
Divorce. Figures in respect of Divorces have been collected and tabulatedseparately only from the 1946 census onwards.(l) Table 3.15
shows the proportion of the population divorced at specified ages in censusyears.
(1) In addition to census data on divorces the Registrar General registers divorcesoccuring annually and statistics of divorces are published in his Vital Statistics Report.
43
TABLE 3.15. PERCENT OF THE POPULATION DIVORCED AT SPECIFIED AGES
Age
Year
1946195319631971
20
0.40.50.20.0
25
0.40.30.30.1
30
0.40.60.40.2
35
0.40.60.40.3
40
0.40.60.40.4
45
0.40.60.50.4
50
0.30.50.40.4
55
0.30.50.40.3
60
0.30.40.40.4
In most nations of the world less than 1 or 2 per cent of the adult femalepopulation is found in the divorced state. This testifies to the fact that thefamily is one of the most stable and universally accepted aspects of socialorganization. In Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim countries only a com-paratively small fraction of the marriages are broken by formal divorce.Where divorce does occur, it is very often followed by remarriage. In SriLanka the total number of persons divorced at the 1971 census was only19,519 or 0.2 per cent and the legally separated was 19,313 or 0.2 per cent.The number of males divorced was only 7,899 as compared with 11,616females. The number legally separated were also of the same magnititude viz.7,716 males and 11,598 females. There were more females in these categoriesbecause most of the males divorced and separated tend to re-marry.
C. ETHNICITY
Ethnicity. The term race has been used in Sri Lanka to signify a socialor ethnic grouping. The population of Sri Lanka consists
of several ethnic groups each of which possesses a distinctive consciousnesswhich has developed on the basis of differences in social, historical andreligious background.
At the 1824 Census of Sri Lanka, population was classified by caste,and not according to race. Europeans and Burghers appeared as distinctcastes. The Sinhalese and Tamils were not reported as such but as membersof their respective castes. The term Nationality was used in the earliercensuses until 1901. From the 1911 Census onwards the word race wasused in place of nationality and it had recognition in all official and unofficialrecords. The Census Reports prior to 1901 classified the population intoseven groups viz. Europeans, Sinhalese, Tamils, Moors, Malays, Veddahsand others. The Sinhalese were divided into Low Country Sinhalese andKandyan Sinhalese from the 1901 Census onwards. The 1911 Censusseparated the Tamils into Ceylon Tamils and Indian Tamils and the Moorsinto Ceylon Moors and Indian Moors. These races thus classified are
44
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45
believed to be partly ethnological except for the division of Sinhalese intoLow Country and Kandyan Sinhalese. The linguistic, religious and geo-graphic locations also have some significance in this classification. Sinhala,Tamils and English are the three major languages spoken in Sri Lanka.Sinhalese is the official Language of the country which replaced English,progressively after Independence. Sinhala is the mother tongue of theSinhalese people and Tamil that of the Tamils. Moors use either one ofthese languages. English is spoken by all Burghers and Eurasians, as wellas by the more well to do Sinhalese, Tamils and Moors. Table 3.16 showsthe distribution of population of the Island by ethnic groups from 1881 to1971.
The Sinhalese. The Sinhalese are the descendants of the ancient Aryansettlers. The founding of the Sinhala race is ascribed to
a prince of Northern India, Vijaya, in the 5th century B.C. Vijaya and hisfollowers found the Island occupied by a tribe called ' Yakkas ', and foundno difficulty in subjugating them. Their disappearance from recordedhistory as a separate and distinctive race group suggests a quick mergerwith the Sinhalese, although some believe that the nomadic ' Veddahs 'living in the Uva and Eastern Provinces of the Island are decended fromthem.
The Sinhalese of low country origin i.e., those in the Western or SouthernProvinces and the Chilaw/Puttalam District were generally classifiedas Low-Country Sinhalese, while Sinhalese who traced their origin to theCentral, North Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, the KurunegalaDistrict, and the Sinhalese Divisions of the District of Amparai, Batticaloa,Trincomalee and Vavuniya were enumerated as Kandyan Sinhalese. Kand-yan Sinhalese formed about 25 per cent of the total population of the Islandat the Census of 1971. They were 24.5 per cent at the 1901 Census.
Low Country Sinhalese numbered 1,458 thousand when they werecounted separately for the first time in the 1901 Census and their numberdoubled by 1946 to 2,902 thousand i.e., over a period of 45 years. Butsince 1946 the population has increased sharply to 5,446 thousand whichindicated an increase of 87.7 per cent over a period of 25 years.
During the same period the Kandyan Sinhalese, who numbered 873thousand in 1901 increased to 1,718 thousand in 1946 and 3,701 thousandin 1971. During the 45 year period 1901 to 1946 they have doubled them-selves and during the 25 year period 1946 to 1971, they had increased by1,983 thousand or 115.4 per cent.
During the period, if we consider the Sinhalese as a whole, they number-ed 2,331 thousand in 1901 and 4,620 thousand in 1946 thus doubling in 45years. In 1971 they numbered 9,147 thousand thus doubling again in the25 year period 1946—1971. The growth of the Sinhalese population is duesolely to natural increase and not to any migration.
46
The Tamils. The Ceylon Tamils are predominantly found in the Northernand Eastern parts of Sri Lanka and the Indian Tamils in the
Central hilly plantation areas. The Ceylon Tamils are the descendants ofearly settlers in the Island who originaly came from South India for thepurpose of conquest while Indian Tamils were brought into Sri Lanka in the19th Century to work mainly in the Plantations.
The classification of Tamils by Ceylon Tamils and Indian Tamilscommenced with the 1911 census. In that year the number of Ceylon Tamilswas 528 thousand and Indian Tamils 531 thousand. At the Census of 1946,Ceylon Tamils amounted to 734 thousand and this number increased to 1,416thousand in 1971, an increase of 682 thousand or 93 per cent over the last 25years. The majority of Ceylon Tamils live in the Northern andEastern Provinces.
Indian Tamils numbered 1,195 thousand at the 1971 Census, showingan increase of 414 thousand or 53.0 per cent over a period of 25 years sincethe 1946 Census. Indian Tamils live mainly in the plantation areas as estatelabourers and are most numerous in the Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and BadullaDistricts. The number of Tamils and Moors of Indian origin have showna decline in 1971 due to migration during the inter censal period 1963—1971.
Moors. The Moors were known to be skilful traders and their enterprisebrought them across to Sri Lanka to sell their crafts. A whole
colony is said to have landed at Beruwela in the Kalutara District in 1024A.D. The Moors soon obtained a firm footing in the Island and spreadthemselves throughout the country. Despite the adoption of the Tamillanguage and the freedom with which they intermarried, the unifying influenceof their religion has helped the descendants of these early Arab settlersto preserve a distinctive race consciousness and to regard themselves as aseparate group. At the 1881 Census, Moors numbered 184.5 thousand andincreased to 228.0 thousand at the 1901 Census. From the 1911 Censusonwards Moors were divided into Ceylon Moors and Indian Moors. Thiswas the outcome of the influx of Indian Labourers to the Plantation areascomprising both Moors and Tamils, who had to be disinguished separately.At the 1971 Census, Ceylon Moors numbered 824.3 thousand and IndianMoors 29.4 thousand, totalling 853.7 thousand. The largest number ofCeylon Moors were found in Batticaloa and Amparai Districts. They alsoformed a high percentage of the total population of Mannar, Puttalam andTrincomalee Districts. The Indian Moors who numbered 29,416 at the1971 Census is the only other ethnic group besides Indian Tamils whichshows a decline from the previous Census figure. This may be partly dueto the fact that many Indian Moors have returned to India and partly becausesome of the Indian Moors may have declared themselves and been enumera-ted as Ceylon Moors. Indian Moors are mostly found in Colombo andKandy Districts. Colombo Municipality claimed more than 75 per centof the Indian Moors found in Colombo District.
47
Malays. The Malays whose origin is traced to Java numbered 41,615 or 0.3per cent of the population at the 1971 Census. They numbered
only 22.5 thousand in 1946. Thus they have increased by 19.1 thousandor 84.9 per cent over the last twenty five years. They are followers ofIslam and live practically in every part of the island. About two third oftheir population were found in Colombo District, while Kandy andHambantota Districts also contain large numbers of Malay population.
Burghers & Eurasians. In the category of Burghers and Eurasians wereincluded the descendants of the civil and military
employees of European ancestry. The mixed descendants of the Portugueseand Dutch were known as Portuguese Burghers and Dutch Burghers res-pectively. The Burghers and Eurasians numbered 44.2 thousand at the1971 Census. They formed 0.3 per cent of the country's population. Theirgrowth rate is the least among the ethnic group in Sri Lanka. They number-ed 41.9 thousand in 1946 and in the twenty five year period they increasednumerically by 4.3 thousand or by 10.3 per cent. This slow growth is dueto the large numbers of this community migrating to other countriesparticularly Australia.
Veddahs. Veddahs were counted separately upto the 1963 Census. Thenumber of Veddahs fluctuated considerably from Census to
Census since 1871 and in 1963 they numbered only 412. The fluctuationof the number of Veddahs at various censuses may be ascribed todifferences in the connotation of the term as understood by theenumerators. The rather small number of Veddahs reported at thelater censuses may be partly due to a disinclination of the more civilisedVeddahs to call themselves as Veddahs and partly due to their integrationwith other ethnic groups. Hence at the 1971 Census the Veddahs were notenumerated separately but grouped with others.
D. RELIGION
Buddhism. Buddhism is the most widely professed religion in Sri LankaAt the 1971 Census, out of a total population of 12,711,143
persons, 8,8,567,570 persons or 67.4 per cent were enumerated as Buddhist.According to the Sinhalese chronicles, Buddhism was introduced into theIsland, in or about 300 B.C. and has been the predominant religion in SriLanka for over twenty-two centuries. Buddhism is the religion professedby a large majority of the Sinhalese.
Census data collected and tabulated by religion is available from the1871 census. Table 3.17 below gives the number and percentage by religionat each census.
48
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49
The largest concentration of Buddhists is found in the Southern Pro vince.At the 1971 Census 97.2 per-cent of the population in Hambantota Districtwere reported as Buddhists. Other Districts whichhave large concentrationsof Buddhist are Galle (93.9%) and Matara (93.8 %). In Kandy District,which may be considered as the Headquarters of the Buddhist hierarchy,there were only 61.7 per-cent Buddhist. This is due to the presence of alarge number of Indian Tamil Hindus (26 per-cent), mainly working inthe estate sector. During the last twenty five years (1946—71) the Buddhistpopulation has increased by 4,272,638 or 99.5 per-cent. This is in keepingwith the growth of the population which itself has doubled within the lasttwenty five years.
Hinduism. Hinduism is the religion which, next to Buddhism, has thelargest number of followers in Sri Lanka. At the 1971 Census
there were 2,239,410 Hindus comprising 17.6 per-cent of the totalpopulation. The distribution of Hindu population at various censuses isshown in Table 3.17. It is observed from the table that the percentage ofBuddhists in the total population is almost constant, whereas the percentageof Hindus varies widely. This may be partly due to the fact that more thanhalf of the Hindu population are immigrant Indians who are non-indige-nous in character. Hinduism is the principal religion of the Tamilpopulation. Jaffna District has the largest concentration (83.1 per cent) ofHindus. The other Districts which have large concentrations of Hindus areVavuniya (65.4 per-cent) Batticaloa (64.9 per-cent) and Nuwara Eliya(52.3 per-cent). During the last twenty five years the Hindu population hasincreased by 69.6 per-cent.
Roman Catholics. Catholics were counted separately from the 1946 Censusonwards. At the 1971 Census, Roman Catholics
numbered 883,111 or 6.9 per-cent of the total population. They formed thelargest group (89.5%) out of all Christians who numbered 986,687 or 7.7per-cent of the total pupulation. They were mostly found in Puttalam(38.8 per-cent) Mannar (32.8 per-cent) and Colombo (15.9 per-cent) District.
Other Christians. At the 1971 Census, all Christians other than RomanCatholics were grouped together and numbered 103,576
or 0.8 per-cent of the total population. They consisted of Anglicans,Methodists, Presbyterians etc. and are evenly distributed throughout theIsland. The distribution of the Christian population (Roman Catholicand other) as at the various censuses is given in table 3.18.
Islam. Islam is the Religion of the Moors and the Malays. Prior to the1946 Census the term used was " Muhamadanism ". The followers
of Islam are called Muslims. At the 1971 Census 909,941 persons wereenumerated as Muslims. They formed 7.1 per-cent of the total population:Muslims are mostly found in Amparai (46.2 per-cent) Trincomalee (32.4per-cent) and Batticaloa (24.2 per-cent) Districts. The Muslim populationof Sri Lanka since 1871 is shown in Table 3.17. During the last twenty fiveyear period they have increased by 473,385 or by 108.4 per-cent;
50
TABLE 3.18. DISTRIBUTION OF CHRISTIAN POPULATION FROM 1946—1971
Year
1946195319631971
AJÍ Christians
Number
603,235724,461883,900996,687
Per centof totalpopulation
9.18.98.47.8
Roman Catholics
Number
507,418609,938768,833883,111
Per centof totalpopulation
7.67.57.36.9
Other Christians
Number
95,617114,523116,116103,576
Per centof total
population
1.41.4l:l0.8
E. EDUCATION
The progress of nations in the modern world is increasingly dependentupon education and modern governments require adequate knowledge ofthe educational status of the people and the level of literacy. While infor-mation on this subject is essential for evaluating the needs of education, andplanning specific measures to meet these needs, it is equally important inthe formulation and execution of plans in other fields such as industrialand agricultural development, measures to improve productivity, publichealth programmes etc.
Data on the educational attainment of the population are also of specialvalue for research in demography and related social and economic fields,since education has an important influence on many aspects of human be-haviour. A high level of educational attainment is a powerful force forsocial change and its effects can be anticipated to some extent by comparingthe behaviour and characteristics of population groups at different educa-tional levels.
The education system in There have been many important developmentsSri Lanka. in the educational system of Sri Lanka during
the last three decades. Firstly, as a result ofthe recommendations of a sub-committee on education made in 1943,education in Sri Lanka was made free from the Kindergarten to the univer-sity and the mother tongue of the pupil was adopted as the medium ofinstruction. These measures stimulated popular interest in educationthroughout the country and largely account for the unprecedented growthin the school going population, which was one of the chief concerns of thepolicy makers during 1945-60. Secondly, important steps were taken toestablish and to expand educational facilities in vocational and technicalfields. In view of the growing pressure on existing institutes of higheracademic education and the problems created as a result of an ever increasing
51
number of graduates being turned out by universities, attempts are nowbeing made to diversify the educational system.
The main problem which the educational reforms introduced since 1970seek to resolve is the very fundamental question of re-structuring and re-organizing the school system to meet the challenges of a developing economy.The traditional pattern of school curricula which have come down fromcolonial times has been found to be inadequate to meet the needs of Sri Lankain the 1970's. It was satisfactory so long as the number of pupils leavingsecondary shcool each year found ample job opportunities in clerical andadministrative work. But with an expanding school population and agrowing number of job seekers from among the educated, it was imperativeto introduce radical changes in school curricula so as to prepare pupilsfor a whole range of occupations in which they could be usefully employedand the changes in curricula were introduced in two ways. On the onehand, the content of the traditional subject areas were reviewed with theobjective of bringing about a closer link between each subject area and thelife and work of the community in which the pupil lived. A second stepwas the attempt to relate the general education curriculum to the needsof the community by placing greater emphasis on pre-vocational studies.The problem of ' educated unemployment ' facing Sri Lanka and hopefully,its experience with educational reforms of the kind now being introducedin the schools, will no doubt be of value to other developing countries,which are likely to experience similar situations in years to come.
Literacy. Data on literacy was obtained for all persons 10 years old andover. Literacy was defined as ability to read and write with
understanding a simple paragraph pertaining to day-to-day-life.
The Census of population 1971 returned a total number of 7,293,986persons in Sri Lanka as literate. Thus the literate population represented78.1 per cent of the population over 10 years. The percentage of literacyby sex at the various censuses are given in Table 3.19:
TABLE 3.19. PERCENTAGE OF LITERACY IN SRI LANKA 1881—1971
Census Year
188118911901191119211946195319631971
Both Sexes
17.421.726.431.039.957.865.471.678.1
Percentage of Literates
Males
29.836.142.047.256.470.175.979.385.2
Females
3.15.38.5
12.521.243.853.663.270.7
52
There has been'a continuous improvement in literacy since 1881 asmay be observed from the above table. The rate of literacy can be con-sidered relatively high in Sri Lanka when compared with other developingcountries in this region. ' It is observed that illiteracy was high amongfemales particularly from about the beginning of the century till aboutthe twenties. The decline in illiteracy among females over the next fifty years•was due to many factors, such as the establishment of free Governmentschools which were mainly co-ëducational in character and thë; émergenceof: women from the seclusion of their home and the opening of moreavenues of employment to educated women.
According to the 1971 census of pupulation there, were 4,078,807males and 3,215,177 females who were literate as against an illiterate popula-tion of 708.752 males and 1,334,535 females. Thus the percentageof literates for males and females.was. 85.2 and 70.7 respectively. Thepercentage of literacy in the urban areas as 85.6 per-cent for all personsand 89.5 per-cent and 81.3. per-cent for males and females respectively.In the rural sector the percentage, of literacy was 75.9 per-cent for all personsand 83.8 per-cent and 67.6 per-cent for males and females respectively.The higher literacy rate in the urban sector can be attributed to manyfactors such as the availability of more facilities for- education and. agreater awareness of the urban community of the need for education forpurposes of employment, . . • .-'.••.
Table 3.20; gives, the percentage of literate persons by age groups andsex for Sri Lanka by sectors.
TABLE 3:20
Age Group
Total 10 & over10—1415—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—44,,.;,.45—4950—54
-55—5960—64 Y65—6970—7475 & over
PERCENTAGE OF LITERATES BYFOR
AGE GROUPS ANDSECTORS—1971 CENSUS OF POPULATION
Urban and Rural Sectors
Total
78.182.886.5
•'86.8' 8413- 82.4 -
74.2;; 74.7 •
69.568.263.159.8 :57.052.2 '42.1 •
Males
85^283.588.090.690.590.1-85.9
l.:86.5;..83.683.1
• 78.2 •75.5
. .73.068.960.4
• ' •
Females
7 0 >82.185.1
7:83.1/ '•78.374.462.5
!•' 61.453.851.245.1
: 39.937.630.823.0
Urban Sectors
Total
85.687.791.1
•<;:92.i.;90.889.384.584.080.878.674.570.467.2.63.252.6
Males
89.587.891.4
.93./. , .93.5
• 92.889.990.388.387.5
' 83.ff"82.5 .'79.174.866.5
Females
81.587.690.8
V 90.2.'87.8
- 85.378.676.571.968.2
' 63.7'; :56.8. .54.4 .
50.640.4
SEX
Rural Sectors
: Total
75.981.585.2
••. 85.1-':82.280 .2 -71.271.966.264.959.8"56.7
...54.1,49.339.5
Males
83.882.486.9
: 89.5 •89.589.2 -84.685.382.281.7
• "76.7": 73.6 :
71.4-,67.559.1
Females
67.680.683.5
. ; 81.075.4
• 71.1-58.056.948.846.0
" 39.7• 34.6
. . .32.4.24.918.3
The rising-level of Education. With! the introduction of free education1
• '• ; not only the literacy level but also the;educational attainment of the population has shown significant improve-ments. Table 3.21 shows for the population-aged 15 years and over the:
percentages of the males and females'as well both sexes in each age group;that have attained specified-educational levels- as at the! 1971 Census. It!can be readily.seen.!ihat-the-younger age. groups .have-greater- proportions'1
• 5 3
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54
in the higher education levels. This is the situation that could be expectedwith an improvement in school attendance and an increase in the educationalfacilities over time. For example if we compare the 25—29 age groupwith the 45—49 age group we find that while over 18 per cent of theformer have had no schooling, 32 per cent of the latter fall into thiscategory. Further, while 12 per cent of the 25—29 group have G.C.E. 'O'in more than 6. subjects or an equivalent or higher qualification, only 4.4.per cent of the 45—49 group have this level of attainment.
Another interesting feature that may be observed from table 3.21 isthat in each age group the sex differential in educational attainment is infavour of the males but the differential declines with the level of education.Thus, in the 20—24 group 18.3 per cent of females have had no schoolingcompared to 11.5 per cent of the males, while 2.3 percent of the males asopposed to 2.2 per cent of the females possess G.C.E. 'A' level or higherqualifications.
This trend is apparent in all the age groups but is more marked in thecase of the younger groups. In other words, the equalisation of the sexesin terms of educational attainment is more complete at the higher educationallevels and younger ages that at the lower level and older ages. This isindicative of a trend which will bring about equalisation in the future.
F. HOUSEHOLDS & FAMILIES
At the Socio-economic Survey carried out in 1969—70 at which one-member households were excluded from the coverage of the survey theaverage size of a household was estimated as 5.8 for the country. Sectorwisethe averages were 6.3, 5.8 and 5.2 in the urban, rural and estate sectors res-pectively. Nearly 75 per cent of all households were estimated to havebetween 3 to 8 members.
The 1971 Census of Population Questionnaire did not seek any infor-mation on household or family size or composition. Information onthe number of households and familes occupying each housing unit washowever, collected on the Housing Schedule with a view to estimating theextent of sharing of housing units.
The Census showed that 90 per cent of the housing units were occupiedby single households while the balance 10 per cent were shared by two ormore households. While a household, defined as one or, more personsliving together for the purpose of taking meals and sharing expenses, wouldinclude servants, relatives and etc., a family by definition consists of eithera married couple with or without children or one parent living with un-married children. The census showed that 12 per cent of the housing unitsaccommodated more than 1 family.
The average number of occupants per housing unit was 5.6 for thecountry as a whole. The urban sector had an average of 6.2 occupants perunit while the rural and estate sectors had averages of 5.6 and 4.8 respectively.
CHAPTER IV
POPULATION DISTRIBUTIONAND INTERNAL MIGRATION
A. DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITYDistribution and Density. An analysis of the distribution of the
population of the country over its sub-divisions is important and useful for many purposes. The land area ofthe country is used for varied purposes such as agriculture, manufacturing,residence, sport etc. Such land usage in some ways influences and is alsoinfluenced by the concentration of population in the various parts of thecountry. If population distribution is related to the geographic distributionof natural and other resources some indication could be obtained of theextent of over-population or under-population. Such knowledge couldhelp in the formulation of policies intended to influence re-distribution ofpopulation within the country.
Density of Population. The density of population is a simple conceptmuch used in studies relating to population size.
Density is usually computed as population per square mile of land area.Table 4.1 shows the population per sq. mile of the various Districts at the1971 Census.
TABLE 4.1. DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF POPULATION BY DISTRICTSAND PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION 1971
District
ColomboKandyMatara :
KalutaraGalleKegalleNuwara EliyaJaffnaBadullaKurunegalaRatnapuraMátaleHambantotaPuttalamBatticaloaAmparaiTrincomaleeAnuradhapuraPolonnaruwaMannarMoneragalaVavuniya
Populationin
thousands
2,6731,187
588732737653453704616
1,02866231624138025827319238916478
19296
Per centof totalPopu-lation
21.09.34.65.85.85.13.65.54.88,15.22.52.73.02.02.11.53.11.30.61.50.8
Per centof total
area
3.23.61.92.52.62.51.93.94.37.34.93.04.04.64.04.74.1
11.15.33.8
11.05.8
Densityper sq.
mile
3,3081,2991,2231,1731,1311,016
956705565557529411337324254231183139123816965
UrbanPopulation
1,470,134148,18166;357
161,404157,53845,99521,765
235,63151,69143,14847,81738,16133,34952,24370,86032,06974,76638,93816,138
. 11,1574,166
20,569
PercentUrban
55.012.511.3 .22.121A7.14.8
33.58.44.27.2
12.19.8
13.827.511.838.910.09.8
14.32.2
21.5•Arranged in order of decreasing density of population.
56
The population of Sri Lanka is not evenly distributed over its landarea. It is observed that about 60 percent of the country's population isconcentrated in the eight administrative districts of Colombo, Kalutara,Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Kegalle. All theseeight districts which are contiguous, together constitute the Wet Zone(with a rainfall of over 75 inches per annum) in the south-west part of theIsland. The land area of these eight districts constitutes only 23 percentof the total land area. Thus only 40 per-cent of Island's population isdistributed over the ramaining 77 percent of land area which is mainly thedry zone area.
Urban and Rural Populations. At the 1971 Census 2,842,077 persons wereenumerated in urban areas and the remain-
ing 9,869,066 persons in rural areas (inclusive of the estates). Urban areaswere defined as the local government areas designated as Municipal Councils,Urban Councils and Town Councils. The urban population constituted22.4 percent of the total population of the Island while the rural populationconstituted 77.6 percent. The proportion of urban population has beenincreasing over the years, as seen from the Table 4.2.
TABLE 4.2. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION OF SRI LANKA AT CENSUSES1901 TO 1971
CensusYear
19011911192119311946195319631971
TotalPopulation
3,565,9544,106,3504,498,6055,306,8716,657,3398,097,895
10,582,06412,711,143
UrbanPopulation
418,969542,945637,870737,272
1,032,7931,239,1332,016,2852,842,077
RuralPopulation
3,146,9853,563,4053,860,7354,569,5995,624,5466,858,7628,565,7799,869,066
PercentUrban
11.813.214.213.915.515.319.122.4
PercentRural
88.286.885.886.184.584.780.977.6
It has however to be noted that the urban population as counted at thevarious censuses are subject to two limitations in the official definition ofurban areas. One is that the urban boundaries as officially defined mayinclude within it populations which cannot be regarded as urban as definedin demographic, occupational, sociological or morphological terms. Theother is that clusters of population that would qualify as ' urban ' accordingto definitions based on population density, occupational structure or someother criterion may simply never have been granted urban status in adminis-trative terms and are therefore included in the rural population by theCensus(l). Subject to these limitations, the data shows that there has beena steady but slow growth in the country's urban population. At the 1901census the urban population was 418,969 or 11.8 percent of the total
(1) Gravin W. Jones, and S. Sfc.varatnam; " Urbanisation in Ceylon 1946-63 " inModern Ceylon Studies, Vol. I, No. 2.
57
population and it grew slowly and reached 1,032,793 at the 1946 censusclaiming 15.5 percent of the total population. The urban propotion increasedto 19.1 per cent in 1963 mainly as a result of the inclusion of Town Councilareas into the urban category. It increased further to 22.4 per cent in 1971.
Principal Towns. The population of the principal towns of Sri Lanka isshown in Table 4.3. During the twenty five year period
1946—71 the populations of the following towns have more than doubled—Dehiwala-Mount Lavinia, Kotte, Mátale, Batticaloa, Puttalam, Anuradha-pura, Badulla, Ratnapura and Kegalle. Except for the capital city of Colombowith a population of 562,160, only two other towns, Dehiwala-Mt.Laviniaand Jaffna had populations of more than 100,000 at the 1971 census. Itmust be noted that in Sri Lanka as elsewhere, with improved means ofcommunications the countryside itself is becoming more urbanized. Theisolation of the villages is being gradually eliminated as a result of increasingvehicular traffic and telecommunication facilities.
TABLE 4.3. POPULATION OF PRINCIPAL TOWNS—1946—1971
Town
1. Colombo2. Dehiwala-Mt-Lavinia3. Negombo4. Moratuwa5. Kotte6. Kalutara7. Kandy8. Mátale9. Nuwara Eliya
10. Galle11. Matara12. Hambantota13. Jaffna14. Mannar15. Vavuniya16. Batticaloa17. Trincomalee18. Kurunegala19. Puttalam20. Chilaw21. Anuradhapura22. Badulla23. Ratnapura24. Kegalle
1946
362,07456,88132,47950,69840,21818,96551,26614,09010,82949,00922,9083,970
62,543——13,03732,50713,3727,7929,108
12,31413,38712,4414,903
1953
426,12778,21338,62860,21554,38120,32357,20017,24414,40555,84827,6414,299
77,811——17,43926,35617,50510,23711,39218,39017,04316,5985,510
1963
511,644110,93446,90877,83573,83325,26068,20222,19719,88864,94232,2845,387
94,2488,9887,176
22,95734,87221,29313,25014,07029,39127,08821,5823,062
1971
562,160154,78557,11596,48992,04228,74893,60260,51716,34772,72036,6416,908
107,66311,15715,63936,76141,78425,18917,98217,60334,83634,65829,11613,262
B. INTERNAL MIGRATION
Internal Migration. The people of Sri Lanka are free to move withinthe 25 thousand square miles of its land area^
wherever, in their own judgment, they find it suitable to settle down. People
58
have been free to follow the call of opportunity wherever it led within theborders of Sri Lanka. They are free to move freely from one area to another,and back and forth between areas. Except for Government agriculturalpolicy aimed at settling people in colonization schemes, there has been nooverall national program for population distribution or re-distribution.The national Government gave some assistance and held out some incen-tives to settle people in the major colonization schemes.
The limited availability of statistics make it difficult to measure trendsin internal migration. There are four major sources of information on themovements of people within the country : (1) inferences concerning migra-tion from changes in the number of individuals in a given area between twopoints in time (2) comparisons of district of birth and district of residence ;(3) statistics comparing the present residence of individuals with theirresidence at some earlier time and (4) special field surveys designed to secureinformation about migrants. The first two methods are used here to studythe trends in internal migration in Sri Lanka.
Table III in the appendix shows the distribution of the Census Popula-tions in 1963 and 1971 and also the birth and deaths that occurred in eachdistrict during the intercensal period 1963—1971. It is observed that outof the 22 districts 9 districts have gained population by immigration(I) Colombo, (2) Anuradhapura, (3) Polonnaruwa, (4) Moneragala (5) Trin-comalee, (6) Vavuniya, (7) Puttalam, (8) Batticaloa and (9) Mannar inthat order. The largest inflow of immigrants is of course to ColomboDistrict where the capital city and the centre of Government as well asCommerce is located. This is followed by Anuradhapura district where alarge number of colonization schemes have been opened up by the Govern-ment.
Although Colombo (41,592) received the largest number of migrants,the migration rate of Polonnaruwa (11.45 per cent) is more than 5 times thatof Colombo District (1.7 per cent) followed by Moneragala District witha rate of 9.17 per cent.
The remaining 13 districts showed out-migration of varying degreesduring the intercensal period. Though Kandy showed a net out-migrationof 74,810, the highest rate of out-migration (8.03 per cent) is from MataraDistrict. Where out-migration rates are concerned the district rates inorder are Matara (8.03 per cent), Kandy (6.70 per cent) Jaffna (5.9 per cent)Nuwara Eliya (4.61 per cent) and Badulla (4.37 per cent).
An examination of internal migration statistics by place of birth asreported at the 1971 census (see Table III in appendix) shows that 12 districtshave gained through lifetime migration. The districts which have so gainedare Colombo, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Amparai, Trincomalee, Mone-ragala, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Hambantota, Ratnapura andMátale in descending order. The other ten districts have lost throughlifetime out-migration. This method of estimating net migration is far
59
from satisfactory except for the purpose of studying migration streams.Place of birth statistics are derived from answers received to a question atthe census regarding one's district of birth. A person born in a particularlocality could have moved out without ever coming back to this place andmade a number of moves before coming to the place at which he is enume-rated. Yet he is counted as a migrant from this area to the area in whichhe was enumerated although he might happen to spend only a few days orweeks at the place of enumeration. Also the time at which migrationoccurred is not known and the movement might have taken place anytimebetween birth and time of enumeration.
Urban Migration. In Sri Lanka there were only eight towns which had apopulation of over 50,000 at the 1971 census. They
are the Municipal Councils of Colombo (562,160), Dehiwala Mount Lavinia(154,785),Negombo (57,115), Kandy (93,602),Galle (72,720)Jaffna (107,663)and the Urban Councils of Moratuwa (96,489) and Kotte (92,042). In theColombo M.C. area the 1971 census shows that of the population withusual residence in the town 53.5 per cent was resident there since birth whilein Dehiwala Mount Lavinia only 39.7 per cent were resident there sincebirth. In contrast, 77.7 per cent of the population in the Jaffna M.C. areawas resident there since birth. Table 4.4 shows the population of thesetowns and the distribution of life-time migrants.
TABLE 4.4. URBAN AREAS WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 50,000SHOWING DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY RESIDENCE STATUS—1971
CENSUS
1. Colombo M.C.2. Dehiwala Mt-Lavinia M.C.3. Negombo M.C.4. Moratuwa U.C.5. Kotte U.C.6. Kandy M.C.7. Galle M.C.8. Jaffna M.C.
Enume-rated
population1971
Census
562,160154,78557,11596,48992,04293,60272,720
107,663
Numberwith usual
ICMUCJILC
in thetown
549,230150,60656,88794,65691,12289,48477,993
106,694
ResidentSince :
Number
293,83859,79139,19569,66744,55944,47452,98782,901
îirth
%
53.539.768.973.648.949.773.677.7
Life-Lime
migrants
255,39290,81517,69224,98946,56345,01019,00623,793
When the population is analysed by residence since birth and sex it isseen that the percentage of females resident since birth is higher than themales showing the preponderance of male migrants to towns. For instance inColombo M.C. area only 50 per cent of males are resident since birth whereasthe corresponding figure for females is 58 per cent. In the Dehiwala-MountLavinia Municipal Council area only 38 per cent of the males are residentsince birth while in the case of females the rate was 41 percent. This townis one of the fast growing areas neighbouring the principal city of Colombo.
60
Kotte Urban Council is another town which has more migrants. Thereit is observed that 48 per cent of the population were resident since birth(males 47 per cent and females 51 per cent).
But in Galle and Jaffna M.C. areas 73 and 77 per cent respectively wereresident since birth and there is not much difference between the sexes.Duration of Stay. In the Colombo M.C. area 45 per cent of the lifetime
migrants were resident there for ten years and over.Those who were resident for less than one year consisted of 18.5 per centand those who were resident for 1—4 years were 21.4 percent and thoseresident for 5—9 years were 15.5 per cent.
In Dehiwala Mt. Lavinia 33.7 per cent of the lifetime migrants wereresident for ten years and over while 23.5 per cent were resident for lessthan one year. In the Kandy Municipal council area 38.6 per cent of thelifetime migrants werre resident there for ten or more years. The respectivefigures for Galle M.C. and Jaffna M.C. areas were 33.4 per cent and 45.4per cent respectively.
Metropolitan Areas Colombo, the capital city of Sri Lanka owes itsColombo City. importance and development, chiefly to its harbour,
one of the largest artificial harbours in the world.The Portuguese negotiated with the Sinhalese kings and built a fortress here.The Dutch took over from the Portuguese.
The Sinhalese with the aid of the British ousted the Dutch from theIsland and with the fall of the city of Colombo in 1796 all their possessionsfinally passed into the hands of the British. In 1827 the population ofColombo Fort was 734 persons and of " Pettah " or " within Kayman'sGate " 4979 persons. The number of tiled houses was 205 and 857 res-pectively. In 1865 an Ordinance was passed establishing the Municipalitiesof Colombo, Kandy and Galle. The City of Colombo which had only 9wards and an area 9.5 square miles to start with expanded rapidly throughthe years, and at the 1971 census it had 47 wards covering an area of 14.4square miles.Growth of Population The growth of the city population was chiefly due
of the City. to the development of commercial and financialenterprises and other economic activities in the
TABLE 4.5. AREA, POPULATION AND DENSITY OF COLOMBO CITY1881—1971
Census Years
1881189119011911192119311946195319631971
Area in Square Miles
9.459.45
10.0011.9412.9413.0013.2813.8813.4014.40
Population
110,502126,825154,691211,274244,163284,155362,074426,127511,644562,160
Density
11,69313,35015,46917,69818,87221,85827,85230,69438,18239,038
61
city. The growth of the city population could be attributed to the naturalincrease in population, net migration and the extension of the city limits.The third factor is of minor significance since the area has increased onlyby 5.0 square miles during the last hundred years. Up to the early part ofthis century, migration contributed more to the growth of the city thannatural increase.
While the area of the city of Colombo has increased by 53 per centbetween 1881 and 1971 the population has increased more than fivefold. In1921 the density of population per square mile was 18,872 persons. Thiswas almost doubled in 1971 to a figure of 39,032. The density of the wholeIsland was 508 persons per square mile in 1971.
If we compare the city's growth with that of the Island for the Censusyears it is seen that the increase in the city was always higher than that ofthe island prior to 1946 as seen from Table 4.6 below. After 1946 the rateof growth of the city has fallen behind that of the Island. This could beattributed to the crowded conditions in the city and the population beingattracted to the suburbs of the city rather than to the city itself due to thehigh levels of rent and the increased cost of buildable land in the city.
TABLE 4.6. POPULATION, INTERCENSAL INCREASE AND PERCENTAGE
INCREASE FOR THE CITY OF COLOMBO AND THE ISLAND
Period
1871—18811881—18911891—19011901—19111911—19211921—19311931—19461946—19531953—19631963—1971
Colombo
NumericalIncrease
14,65416,32327,86656,58332,83939,99277,91963,80785,51750,516
City
Per centIncrease
15.314.822.036.615.616.427.417.620.09.9
Sri Lanka
NumericalIncrease
359,358248,051558,165540,396392,255808,266
1,350,4681,441,2982,552,7022,061,677
Per centIncrease
15.09.0
18.615.29.6
18.0 .25.421.631.519.4
Ethnic Group and Religion The Sinhalese, both low-country andIn the City of Colombo. Kandyan, together formed 50.6 percent of
the city population in 1971. Ceylon Tamilsformed 18.3 per cent and Ceylon Moors also 18.3 per cent. Indian Tamilswere 6.2 per cent, Indian Moors 0.9 per cent, Malays 2.6 per cent andBurghers 1.9 per cent. Table 4.7 shows the per cent distribution of the citypopulation by ethnic groups for the census years from 1921 onwards.
62
TABLE 4.7. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ETHNICGROUPS IN COLOMBO CITY 1921—1971
Race
Low Country SinhaleseKandyan SinhaleseCeylon TamilsIndian TamilsCeylon MoorsIndian MoorsBurghersMalaysOthers
1921
45.21.76.0
16.210.4
5.86.12.46.2
1931
43.02.06.7
16.410.35.25.62.58.3
1946
44.32.49.8
12.512.44.44.83.06.4
1953
44.62.7
12.611.813.54.24.02.73.8
1963
47.23.8
17.26.6
17.41.42.62.21.5
1971
46.73.9
18.36.2
18.10.91.92.61.1
In the city significant numbers of adherents of the four major religionsof the world, Buddhism, Hinduism, Christianity and Islam are found.In the Island the Buddhists, mainly Sinhalese, formed a little more thantwo-thirds of the population, Hindus, (mainly Tamils) a sixth, Christians7.7 percent and Muslims 7.1 per cent. In the city Buddhists are under-re-presented as compared to the Island, forming only 43.4 per cent of itspopulation at the 1971 Census; Muslims were 22.1 per cent, Hindus 16.6per cent and Christians 17.4 per cent. Table 4.8 below shows the per centdistribution of the city population by religion from the Census of 1946onwards.
TABLE 4.8. PER CENT DISTRIBUTION ON THE VARIOUSRELIGIONS IN COLOMBO CITY—1946—1971
Religion
BuddhistsHindusMuslimsChristiansOthers
1946
38.518.120.522.7
0.2
1953
39.217.321.122.2
0.2
1963
43.215.621.419.60.2
1971
43.416.622.117.40.4
During the twenty five year period 1946—71 the percentage of Buddhistsand Muslims have increased by 4.9 and 1.6 percentage points respectivelywhile the percentages of Hindus and Christians have shown a decrease.
CHAPTER V
THE LABOUR FORCE
The Labour Force is generally understood to comprise all those personsof either sex who contribute to the supply of labour for the production ofeconomic goods and services. It includes not only those classified as em-ployed at the time of the investigation but also those unemployed but avail-able for work.
The four censuses of population taken in Sri Lanka since the secondworld war have all used the concept of gainful occupation in recording datarelating to the economic activities of the population. This concept is themore likely choice in any predominantly agricultural economy where seasonalvariations in employment will have to be accounted for if the Labour Forceconcept based on the criterion of whether a person was employed or seekingemployment during a specified reference period is used. While adheringconsistently to the gainful occupation approach, however, the definitionsused to categorise persons as employed and unemployed have not beenconsistent at successive censuses.
In 1946, particulars were recorded only in respect of those who weregainfully employed, meaning only those employed and those temporarilyunemployed. By inference, those who were unemployed, but were notpreviously employed were left out. Unpaid family workers were specificallyexcluded from those gainfully employed. In 1953 persons unemployed,but not previously employed were still kept out but unpaid family workerswere included among employed persons. In 1963 all those without em-ployment whether previously employed or not were considered unemployedand their particulars recorded, but only if they were actively seeking em-ployment. In 1971 all those without employment were considered unem-ployed if they were available for work irrespective of whether they wereactively seeking employment or not. Those changes would have in effectenlarged the Labour Force by definition at each successive census. At the1953 census 169,055 persons or 5.6 per cent of those gainfully employedwere classified as unpaid family workers—the category excluded at the 1946Census. At the 1963 census 202,610 persons or 7.7 per cent of the totallabour force were classified as unemployed, but not previously employed—the category excluded at the two previous censuses. At the 1971 census330,955 persons or 41 per cent of those unemployed were classified as notactively seeking work—the category excluded at the 1963 census. Thesefigures should be viewed with some caution. The employment situationhas been more or less steadily worsening since 1946 and the sizes of thesegroups of unemployed and underemployed persons at the particular censusesat which they were included in the labour force would not be fair indicatorsof their sizes at earler censuses. It is quite probable on the other hand thatthese groups were excluded earlier because the census authorities felt they
64
would not be of sufficiently significant size or importance to merit con-sideration. Further the very definitions used may have influenced thestrictness with which they would have been applied. For example a personwho may have been considered as not actively seeking employment by theenumerator in 1971 may not have been so treated in 1963 as it would havemeant his automatic exclusion from the ranks of the unemployed and thelabour force.
The population and the labour force for all ages and for the age group15—59 years which accounts for about 90 per cent of the Labour Force asrecorded at these censuses and the corresponding activity rates are shownin Table 5.1. The figures in brackets show each figure as a percentage ofthe corresponding figure for 1946.
It would be observed that while the total population has increased byabout 90 per cent over the 25 years spanned by the four censuses, the Labourforce has increased by only about 70 per cent in spite of the much widerdefinition adopted in the 1971 census. This disparity between wideningdefinition and declining relative size of the labour force is observed evenin the intervening censuses of 1953 and 1963, being most pronounced in1963. The figures relating to males who contribute the bulk of the labourforce follow the same pattern as the total population except that the rateof increase is lower. The statistics relating to females, however, show adifferent picture. Firstly the rate of increase in the population has beenhigher than in the case of males, and secondly the rate of increase in thesize of the labour force has been higher than the rate of population increaseexcept for the aberration in 1963.
Since about 75 per cent of those aged 10—14 years are full time students(as reported at the 1963 and 1971 Censuses) and since for many years theage of compulsory retirement in the public sector as well as most privatesector establishments has been 60 years the age group 15—59 years whichaccounts for over 90 per cent of the labour force in 1971 may well be con-sidered the working age group. As is to be expected the changes in thelabour force in this age group are more in consonance with changes in thecorresponding population and the activity rates more stable. The separatestatistics for the two sexes, however, show that whereas in the case of malesthe differences in the relative increases in the population and the labourforce have decreased, they have become more pronounced in the case of thefemales, who are a much smaller group in the labour force.
A. AGE AND SEX
Age and Sex. The age and sex composition of the labour force in fiveyear age groups is shown in Table IV in the Appendix.
The distortions in the age composition of the total population due probablyto mis-statement of age, are naturally reflected in the age composition of thelabour force too. The composition of the total population and the labourforce by some selected age groups of significance in the study of the labourforce is shown in Table 5.2. The figures for each group are shown as per-centages of the total for all ages. The activity rates for each group arealso shown.
65
1O¡i
t-'»
*n ci rn o\ t-««t in o\ Tt rioo r* «o oo n
I^3
oo o - T O ^
5g.
Ioo r4
oo ^ OO OS 00
»- m TÍ- _qSi
5 •^ N" pi r i <s" rn"<N" Tj- ' frT»^'
O
"c3
X)B13
|
~5 o «
B, H S H S
2 |
66
DJ
2
IasHû
z§
go
S
OusVI
U)
vi
u
ty R
ate
Act
ivi
For
ce %
gcd
*v°
ion
;
«
1963
1953
«
1971
1963
en
1946
• H¡.61
1963
en
OSiH
Age
Gro
up
1
\OeSO\
O N « I -00 00 CT*eses ts
«est-e s ^
- O *es es es
Und
er 1
0 Y
ears
T M F
es en«
es«enVO00-*
0'00\« «
O T-f 00
*-1 »-( r*
"•«'es'
es es en
«es«en es «3
OOiH-* es 00
00 r* 00es es es
vc*oo«««
«««
«t--"r>es«es
•«t
I
en-* es
«esvoèn^ès
37.4
46.5
27.7
oes esmo\ ri-•*>nes
«2J
10.2 8.8
15.4
«no00 t~ en
es^o-n«Oen
<-v,OO O «
r-Tt-ON
r- vi o\
es en«O O O
15—
19 Y
ears
T M F
voooenSSièn
*»O
sas
64.4
92.2
31.3
es«vo
80.9
81.3
79.7
80.5
81.2
77.6
vot-00Oes en00 00 r»
esr-00
tn en en
en«<oes en«
rst-vo
«TfOO
20—
59 Y
ears
T M F
o e sen 5 ^
tsoo00 es 00envo
•or-.es
es esovi es' envi 00 es
vot-en
v>t-«
" "
•OOVO
»en-*«ovo vi
rtvien
" " "
^ Vi es*n in trj
60 y
ears
& o
ver
T M F
oeo\ooTfCT\00
en I-«
(N O\ en
37.0
53.1
18.9
es 00 es
SK«
888
888
888
888^ ^ »"H »H
888
888»^ --* w*
888
888
Ail
Age
s T M F
67
Children. Of the children aged 10—14 years who are approximately aneighth of the Population only a small and steadily decreasing
fraction have been in the labour force. The activity rate has declined from13.0 per cent in 1946 to 5.2 per cent in 1971. Their proportion in the totallabour force fell to less than 2 per cent in 1971. This is a natural trend in adeveloping country. Participation of both male and female children follow-ed this general pattern. The activity rate for females is lower than thosefor males as it is in every other age group, but it may be noted that a greaterproportion of the female labour force than of the male labour force belongsto this age group.
Most of the children in this age group who do not belong to the labourforce are students. The distribution by activity of all persons in this agegroup in 1963 and 1971 is shown in Table 5.3.
TABLE 5.3. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY ACTIVITY OFCHILDREN AGED 10—14 YEARS ; 1963 AND 1971
Year
1963 TMF
1971 TMT
Employed
5.16.53.6
3.34.22.4
Un-employed
1.11.60.7
1.92.11.7
Students
75.278.771.6
73.676.270.9
Engaged inhome duties
8.83.5
14.3
4.91.88.1
Others
9.79.69.9
16.215.616.9
Total
100.0100.0100.0
100.0100.0100.0
Increases have been recorded in the case of children unemployed andthose categorised "others". The "others" category consists almost wholly ofthose described as children not attending school in the census schedules.Since they are not looking for work and are not needed for household dutiesat home they are proba-bly out of school due either to the lack of suitableschooling facilities in their neighbourhoods or not having the wherewithalto purchase school books, suitable clothing, or other such needs. If thesituation is not remedied, this category of children not at school will expandin the years to come and perhaps flow into the labour force.
Young Persons. The age group 15—19 years which forms about a tenthof the population contributes roughly the same propor-
tion to the membership of the labour force. The activity rates for the malesshow a sharp drop from 59.2 percent in 1946 to 46.5 parcent in 1953,perhaps due to employment opportunities which existed during the time ofthe second World War and its aftermath having disappeared by 1953 andthe increase in the student population consequent on tuition fees beingabolished in schools and universities in 1945. There has been a slightincrease in the rate between 1963 and 1971. The activity rate for femalesshows a peculiar drop in 1963. The comments on the same disturbance
68
in the adult age. group of 20—59 years should apply here also. Thesechanges are perhaps better viewed in the context of the distribution byactivity of both the economically active and inactive members of this agegroup. This distribution by activity of all persons in the age group isshown ¡n Table 5.4.
TABLE 5.4. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY ACTIVITYOF YOUNG PERSONS AGED 15—19 YEARS, 1963 AND 1971
Year
1963 TMF
1971 TMF
Employed
27.426.018.5
22.7 .30.614.8
Un-employed
6.710.33.1
14.818.011.6
Students
40.043.336.6
34.336.432.2
Engaged inhomeduties
20.04.3
36.3
17.33.2
31.7
Others
5.76.05.4
10.811.89.7
Total
100100100
100100100
The increase in the proportion unemployed no doubt would have beenaffected by the fact that in 1963 those not actively seeking work would havebeen not included among the unemployed but it must be noted that suchpersons would have been included in the category ' others ' which itself hasrecorded an increase. It is at those ages that a large number of personsfinish their schooling at high school level to either enter the labour force oras in the case of many females become engaged in household duties. Thecategory ' others ' would include a number who at the time of the censuswere in a process of transition between these two stages. This categorywould also include young persons out of school and either awaiting resultsof public examinations or preparing to repeat examinations in order toqualify for further academic or professional education. These two groups1 unemployed ' and ' others ' are the only two groups that have increasedbetween 1963 and 1971 and together formed about a quarter of the popula-tion in this age group in 1971. In a sense they are unlike those employedor engaged in home duties or still at school and are persons not directlyengaged in purposeful activity. The increase in the ' others ' category whenviewed together with the decreases recorded in the proportions engaged instudies and home duties is indicative of a movement of young persons awayfrom these latter, activities towards the labour force.
Adults. The adults aged 20—59 years form the most important and stablecomponent of the labour force. This age group which forms less
than one half of the total population supplies approximately 80 per cent ofthe working population. While the proportion of the male population inthis age group has declined over the 25 years, the proportion of the malelabour force in this age group has been stable since 1953. The activity ratehas been relatively stable. The more detailed figures in terms of five year.age groups show that the two extreme age groups of the 20—24 year olds
69
and the 55—59 year olds had been subject to larger variations in activityrates with an increasing trend in the case of the youngest group and a de-creasing trend in the case of the oldest. In the case of the females, thepicture is quite different. There have been increases both in the proportionof the labour force in this age group and in the activity rate. Occurringonce again in this age group is the sharp drop in the activity rate in 1963.Table 5.5 shows the distribution of females of all ages in the labour force•by employment status for the censuses taken in 1953, 1963 and 1971.Sharp decreases are noticeable in the case of those categorised as workerson own account and unpaid family workers in 1963.
TABLE 5.5. EMPLOYMENT STATUS OF
Status
Paid Employ-eesEmployerOwn accountWorker
' Unpaid familyworkerStatus Un-specified
Total
1953
Number
484,7459,200
136,742
93,922
724,609
%
66.901.27
18.87
12.96
100
1963
Number
544,1253,757
56,422
42,7427,672
654,718
WOMEN 1953—1971
83.110.57
8.62
6.531.17
100
1971
Number
620,1986,549
91,627
96,442
814,816
%
76.120.80
11.24
11.84
100
This drop in the activity rate has to be counter balanced by an increasein the rate of those economically inactive. In this age group the major.group of those inactive is that of those engaged in home duties. The per-centage of those engaged in home duties among women of this age groupwas 67.6 per cent in 1963 as against 60.7 per cent in 1971. It would there-fore appear that the short fall in 1963 among women who were economicallyactive was due to a shift of workers in the categories of own account workersand unpaid family workers to home duties. In 1963 the census was takenin July and the censuses of 1946 and 1953 in March and the Census of 1971was taken in October and the information would have been recorded at thepreliminary censuses held a month or so earlier in each case. The informa-tion for the 1963 Census would therefore, have been recorded in the monthof June which is a slack month for agricultural activity whereas for the otherthree censuses the information would have been recorded in months inwhich agricultural activity is high. A partial explanation for the drop inthe activity rate in 1963, therefore, may be that women who are seasonal1workers are reported as attending to home duties if at the time of the censusthey are not actually at work. Table 5.6 shows the distribution by employ-aient status of women in agricultural occupations only.
70
TABLE 5.6. EMPLOYMENT STATUS OF WOMEN IN AGRICULTURALOCCUPATIONS 1953—1971
Status
Paid Employ-ees
EmployerOwn accountworker
Unpaid familyworker
Unspecified
Total
1953
Number
337,7223,145
35,185
49,548
425,600
0/
/o
79.350.74
8.27
11.64
100
1963
Number
356,371925
19,785
33,940136
411,157
%
86.660.23
4.81
8.260.03
100
1971
Number
353,4151,196
61,201
84,792
500,604
%
70.600.23
12.23
16.94
100
The.difference in the numbers between 1963 and 1971 in the statusgroups of own account workers and unpaid family workers is due mainlyto those in agricultural occupations. Between 1953 and 1963 there havebeen large decreases in other occupational groups too. It could however,,therefore, be inferred that the activity rate is to some degree affected by thetiming of the Census, the use of the gainful occupation concept notwith-standing, and that a number of women are willing to work and would doso if work which could be performed in or near their homes is available.This may also be part of the explanation for the big increase in the numberof unemployed women recorded at the 1971 census, when the definition ofthe " unemployed " was amended to include all those who were availablefor work even if not actively seeking it.
Old Persons. Those 60 years of age and older form about a twentieth ofthe populations This proportion has been increasing
slowly over the years, while the proportion in the labour force has beendeclining. The activity rate has declined steadily and considerably over the25 year period. This declining trend in the older age groups is a characteris-tic feature of economic development and would continue especially if moreestablishments lower the age of compulsory retirement as the Governmentand some private sector establishments have done. Among the economi-cally inactive in this age group, the males are mostly classified either as tooold to work or as income recipients and pensioners, while among femalesa large number are also engaged in home duties. Table „5.7. shows theactivity status of the old persons aged 60 years and over.
71
TABLÉ: 5.7 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY ACTIVITY STATUS OF OLD.PERSONS AGED 60 YEARS AND OVER, 1971 . -
Total
Mâles
Females
Employ-. ed
28.0. .
47.1
5.0
Unemploy-..ed
2.0
• 2 . 1
1.8
Engagedin HomeDuties;
15.4
1.9
31.6
Income recipientand
pensioners
.:• 8 - 2 •
10.9
4.9
Too old orunable to
work'
• 4 5 - 2 :
36.5
55.7
Others
1.3
1.5
1.0
Total'
100
100
100
Sex composition of thelabour force.
In 1971, of the 4,418,185 persons in the labourforce 3,253,579 persons or 73.6 were males. Theproportion of females in the labour force shows
an increase from 20.7 per cent in 1963 to 26.4 per cent in 1971.
81.3 per cent of the men in the labour force belonged .to the adult agegroup 20—59 years, 10.3 per cent were in the 15—19 group while only 1.6per cent were in the 10—14 group. . Old men aged 60 years and over com-prised 6.8 per cent of the male labour force.
The activity rate for men rises sharply from.6.3 per cent in the 10—14age group to 48.6 in the 15—19 age group. It reaches a high level of 93.8per cent for the 20—59 age range and falls again to 49.9 per cent in the60 and over group.
The proportion of women in the working population (both male andfemale) in each age group is shown in Table 5.8. The age group 20—59years has been divided into two groups to show the child bearing ages se-parately.
TABLE 5.8. WOMEN IN THE LABOUR FORCE, 1946—1971
! Age Group
: 10—14 yean
15—19 „
' • 20—44
; 45—59 „
60 years & Over
All Ages
Percentage or females inlabour force
1946
44.0
26.3
20.2
20.6
19.0
21.8
1953
47.0
35.7
22.3
21.9
22.9
24.2
1963
33.5
31.2
21.3
15.8
9.3
20.7
1971
38.5
34.9
27.9
19.3
10.3
26.4
Percentage of Female po -pulation (Activity Rate)
1946
11.8
24.2
27.8
31.6
23.0
18.2
1953
9.9
27.7
30.2
35.4
25.6
18.9
1963
4.3
21.6
27.1
22.4
8.0
13.9
1971
4.1
26.4
37.1
24.7
6.8
18.8
Percentage of total fe-male labour force
1946
8.1
13.5
35.4
16.4
6.6
100
1953
6.1
13.0
56.4
17-4
7.1
100
1963
3.9
15.4
63.0
14.6
3.1
100
1971
2.8
15.4
66.S
13.1
2.2
100
72
The low figures recorded for women in the labour force in 1963 arevery much in evidence in the table. The overall activity rate has changedVery little except in that year. In spite of this almost unchanged activityrate there has been an increase in the proportion of women in the labourforce, between 1946 and 1971. This has been due partly to à decrease in theoverall activity rate for males and a slight increase in the proportion ofwomen in the total population.
As a proportion of labour force (both male and female) thé femalesare most prevalent in the lowest age group falling away from the labourforce with increasing age. This pattern has been almost consistently main-tained at all censuses. In the recent censuses females have been about athird or more of the labour force in the lowest two age groups covering:the ages 10—14 years and 15—19 years. However, between 1946 and 1971marked increases in the age groups 15—19 years and 20—44 years andmarked decreases in the age groups 10—14 years and 60 years and overhave been recorded. In time to come, therefore, females may be most pre-valent in the labour force between the ages of 15 and 59 years.
Where activity rates are concerned, it is found that whereas in theearlier two censuses activity rates had been highest in the 45—49 years agegroup at the most recent censuses thé highest activity rate has been occurring,in the 20—44 years age group. The more detailed statistics show that thelargest increases over the 1946 rates have been registered in the ages 20—34years, but that almost all such increases are accounted for by those recorded,as unemployed.
The age composition of the female labour force shows-the same trendsas the male labour force. There is a decreasing trend in the proportions ofthe children and the older persons. The young persons aged 15—19 yearsand the younger adults aged 20—44 years, have shown an increasing trend.These two groups together account for 82 per cent of the female labour force:in 1971 as opposed to 72 per cent in the case of males.
The trend appears to be that in future the 20—44 years age group willbe the predominant age group for women in the labour force whether theybe considered in relation to the male labour force, the total female labourforce or in terms of the activity rate.
B. INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION
Industrial Classification. The distribution of the employed populationaccording to the major divisions of the Stan-
dard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities for Sri Lanka asrecorded at the Censuses of 1953, 1963 and 1971 is shown in Table V in th tAppendix. The Industrial Classification used for the tabulation of the 1971Census of population was based on the 1968 Revision of the International
73
Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic activities. Re-arrange-ments have been made in earlier statistics to make the figures comparable.Major division 0—-Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing has beendivided into three parts to separate out employment in Tea, Rubber andCoconut cultivation and in Fishing. Cultivation of the three cropsmentioned is very well organised and most of those employed are paidworkers on extensive plantations as opposed to those engaged in the otherprincipal agricultural activities which are not as well organised and aremostly operated by own account workers and unpaid family workerslargely following traditional methods. . ,
Table 5.9 shows the figures condensed into the three conventionalgroups designated the Agricultural, Industrial and Service Sectors consisting
TABLE 5.9. DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTORS1953—1971
All Sectors TMF
Agriculture TMF
(a) Tea, Rubberand coconut T
MF
(b) Other agricul-ture, HuntingForestry andFishing . T
MF
Industry TMF
Services TMF
Activities not ade-quately described T
MF
1953
Number
2,993,3492,268,740
724,609
1,584,1411,147,404
436,737
856,110507,003349,107
728,031640,40187,630
362,985267,65995,326
848,408695,493152,915
197,815158,18439,631
/ o
100100100
52.050.660:3
28.622.348.2
24.328.212.1
12.111.813.2
28.330.621.1
6.67.05.4
1963
Number
3,194,1252,540,407
654,718
1,681,9371,266,315
415,622
787,872432,331355,541
894,065833,98460.081
394,660329,055
65,605
943,173792,766150,407
175,355152,27023,085
/a
100100100
52.649.863.5
24.717.054.3
28.032.89.2
12.413.010.0
29.431.123.0
5.56.0315
1971
Number
3,621,9873,621,987
814,816
1,823,9571,319,217
504,735
727,263384,462342,803
109,694934,755161,932
484,597381,364103,238
1,015,183852,897162,278
298,267253,710
44,559
0/
/o
100100100
50.447.061.9
20.113.742.1
30.333.319.9
13.413.612.7
28.030.419.9
8.29.05.5
74
of Major Division 1, Major Divisions 2—5, and Major Divisions 6—9 ofthe Industrial Classification. Here again the Agricultural Sector is splitinto two parts, the first consisting of Tea, Rubber and Coconut and thesecond of the rest. Major Division 9 consisting of those whose activitieshave not been adequately described is shown separately.
Growth in employment in the different sectors between 1953 and 1971has been of varying magnitude. While the population has increased by57 per cent and the population aged 15 to 59 years by 55 per cent totalemployment has increased by only 21 per cent. Of the three sectors, onlythe Industrial Ssctor has shown a higher increase than total employmentnamely 33 per cent. The Services sector has increased by almost the sameamount as total employment, while employment in Agriculture has risenby only 15 per cent. But within the Agriculture Sector employment inthe organised sub-sector comprising Tea, Rubber and Coconut has decreasedby 15 per cent while employment in the traditional sector has increased byas much as 51 per cent.
The changes in the percentage composition by sector reflects the growthin each sector. There is a small increase in the industry sector, an almostnegligible change in the service sector and a small decrease in the agriculturesector. In the two sub-sectors of the agriculture sector there have beenmuch larger changes which have almost cancelled out each other in the totalwhen aggregated.
Agriculture. The percentage of those engaged in the non-agriculturalsectors is often used as an indicator of economic development
or more specifically of industrial development. This measure shows anincrease of only 0.9 between 1953 and 1971 (if we exclude those engaged inactivities not adequately described). Employment in the Agriculture sectoritself decreased from 52.9 per cent of those employed in 1953 to 50.5 per centin 1971. (An approximation of the corresponding figure for 1946 obtainedfrom the occupational classification of those gainfully employed is 52.9per csnt). The percentage of those employed in what we have termed theorganised sub-sector, comprising those engaged in the cultivation of Tea,Rubber and Coconut has declined from 28.6 percent to 20.1 percent.While decreases have been recorded for both males and females the changein the case of males is very much more marked, so much so that in 1971females composed 47 per cent of those employed in this sub-sector—aproportion very much higher than that in any other section of economicactivity. As mentioned earlier the percentage of those employed in therest of the Agriculture Sector has increased by as much as 51 per cent ascompared with an increase of 21 per cent in total employment. Therehas been much expansion in this sub-sector since 1953. Table 5.10 showsthe employment, acreage under cultivation and employment per cultivatedacre, for Tea and Rubber which account for the bulk, of the employment inthe organised sub-sector in Agriculture and for paddy (Rice) which accountsfor most of the employment in the rest of the sector.
75
TABLE 5.10. EMPLOYMENT AND ACREAGE CULTIVATED UNDER TEA, RUBBERAND PADDY (RICE) 1953—71
AcreageCultivated
Acreage Culti-vated
Employment
Employment peracre
Tea
1953
574,250
550,191
.96
1963
587,375
587,785
1.00
1971
597,171
550,711
.92
Rubber
1953
657,427
210,171
.32
1963
568,094
160,527
.28
1971
567,994
136,313
.24
Paddy (Rice)
1953
964,484
378,277
.39
1963
1,230,491
623,937
.51
1971
1,419,195
786.226
.51
Note: In the case of Paddy acreage shown in Asweddumized Acreage—that is land prepared for cultivationSome of this acreage may not be cultivated and some cultivated more than once per year.
It is seen that employment per acre in the case of paddy (rice) hasincreased by 41 percent between 1953 and 1971, whereas there have beendecreases in the case oí Tea and Rubber. Therefore the increase inemployment in the traditional section of the Agriculture sector is not duesolely to the increase in the acreage cultivated.
The experience of developed countries has been that as developmentprogresses and agriculture becomes more mechanised, the surplus man-power released thereby moves from the Agriculture Sector to the Industryand Service Sectors. The statistics presented above would indicate thatthe other sectors have not expanded sufficiently to keep pace with theincrease in the population or the total labour force, let alone absorb anysurplus from the Agriculture Sector, which thus appears to have become averitable reservoir of underemployed manpower.
Sri Lanka is an Island with a coast line of approximately 1100 milesand the Fishing Industry is potentially an important one. Employment inin the Fishing Industry has increased from 43,071 in 1953 to 56,317 in 1971which is an increase of 30 per cent. The statistics are shown in Table ' V 'in the Appendix.
Table 5.11 which shows the distribution of those employed in theAgriculture Sector by status brings out clearly, the difference between whathave been termed the organised and the traditional sectors of the AgricultureSector.
In the organised activities of Tea, Rubber and Coconut cultivation95.8 per cent of the males and 9.8.2 per cent of the females are paid workers.The estates are well organised. Three research institutes one for each crophave been in existence for quite some time providing research support tothese three industries which have for long been the mainstay of Sri Lanka'seconomy and export trade.
76
&CO
P
STA
'l
m
fîw¡O
SfiRuÜ
waH
^ED
IIS
O-1Cu5 Î
HO
SEO
FT
%
IBU
TIO
tí
DIS
T5.
11.
3
TAB
• va
S 2
npai
d F
Wor
kep
own
:ers
on
ccou
n(
s"
gi
uo'SU
Tot
ber
|
ber
3
ber
S
ber
S55
l-i
¡
1-e
1'SU
csenoo©\ VO VO
ilsooen Tl-vooooo™*
oo oo e i
no«esvovo— r-en
SmE
I H I O O O
ooest~-es 00 en
mPîo
en t^- es
205
008
193
m es —ies n
r** r - VÏO\esr~
oo en >o
13
ca
ores
try
ing,
Hun
re,
gric
ultu
SA
ll A
Fish
in
VT*VO
"OO-*
en ^^ i—i
S e H ^
MOrî
^o »o oo
\o vo ot** VI fN
t *1 ro ro
»ooo^
oo ^o m
f^ (S m
fS OO •*$•r*- en ro
H ¡S p-i
orze
d se
ct
c
!
¡
X I
Tea
, R
oooeswn oo - H—( >O
veno t -<oo\»ot~- 00 OO
\ ^ 00 00
vo vo en
IOIOOen 00 >OOOVO—ie n v o t -oo es iovo vo
oo es ^^O es enCS CN —i
OVO enin oo voTJ-CS—i
èsoéseses
» O n— es
657
892
760
O> 00
1,09
693
416
1
X )cn
ores
try
UM
iting
,:ti
on)
tur< tio
Agr
icul
g (T
rad
Oth
erFi
shin
77
in the rest of the Sector, own account workers are the predominantgroup and together with unpaid family workers form over 75 per cent ofthe total employment. The large number of own account workers asopposed to the very small number of employees shows the predominanceof small holdings which imply little capital and limited use of modern culti-vation practises.
Also noticeable is the fact that females account for more than half theunpaid family workers—most of them perhaps wives of own account work-ers. It is very likely that most of the underemployed persons mentioned inthe previous paragraph are also in the category of unpaid family workers.Productivity of labour therefore is bound to be low in this part of the Sector.
Industry. The Industrial Sector is relatively small, accounting for about aneighth of the total employment and has shown little change in its
share of total employment between 1953 and 1971. The largest of the majordivisions in this sector is ' Manufacturing ' which accounts for about 80per cent of the total employment in this sector. Experience in the develop-ed countries has been that with advancing industrial development, employ-ment in the first two sub-divisions, that is, in industries engaged in manu-facturing food, beverages and tobacco, textiles, weaving apparel and leatherproducts decrease in proportion to other divisions. Table 5.12 shows thedistribution of employment among the sub-divisions in the manufacturinggroup.
The Food Manufacturing and Textile Manufacturing Divisions aretwo of the three large manufacturing divisons. Together they accountedfor 49.7 per cent of all employment in manufacturing industries in 1953and for 57 per cent in 1971. The number employed has itself increasedfrom 140,734 in 1953 to 199,471 in 1971 which is an increase of 42 per cent.The other large division relates to manufacture of wood and wood productswhich accounted for 69,552 persons or 20 per cent of the employment inmanufacturing industries in 1971 as compared with 72,832 persons or 25per cent in 1953.
Other major divisions in the Industry Sector are relatively small except' Construction ' in which major division employment has almost doubledbetween 1953 and 1971 and which accounted for 112,420 persons employedin 1971. Of these 72,083 or 64 per cent were engaged in building construc-tion.
Sri Lanka's Industrial Sector, it would appear, is still primarily engagedin providing the basic necessitites of Food, Clothing and Shelter.
Table 5.13 shows the distribution of those employed in the IndustrySector by status.
It will be noticed that in the sector as a whole and in every major divi-sion, both in absolute numbers and in terms of percentage composition,the categories of own account workers and unpaid family workers havedecreased between 1953 and 1971 and the category of paid employees hasincreased. The pattern has been repeated in the case of both sexes except
78
TABLE 5.12. DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONS EMPLOYED INMANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1953—1971
Category
Manufacturing TMF
Food Manufac-turing T
MF
Manufacture of TTextile M
F
Manufacture ofWood and WoodProducts T
MF
Manufacture ofPaper and PaperProducts T
MF
Manufacture ofChemicals T
MF
Manufacture . ofNon Metalic Min-eral Products T
MF
Basic Metal In-dustries T
MF
Manufacture ofMetal Productsand Machinery T
MF
Other Manufac-turing T
MF
195:
Number
289,245199,08390,162
479,89140,538
7,451
92,74524,74667,999
72,83268,0624,770
8.2537,831
422
11,6729.6262,046
19,45014,6904.760
1,6611,516
145
17,62516,755
870
17,01815,319
1,699
/ o
100100100
16.620.4
8.2
32.112.475.4
25.134.2
5.3
2.93.9.4
4.04.82.3
6.77.45.3
.6
.8
.2
6.18.41.0
5.97.71.9
196
Number
292,275229,075
63:200
70,50461,271
9,233
66,47021,75244,718
71,62070,080
1,540
13,09212,656
436
16,41913,9982,421
17,66713,8973,770
1,2811,263
18
18,99618,630
366
16,22615,528
698
3
0//o
100100100
24.126.714.6
22.79.5
70.8
24.530.62.4
4.55.5.7
5.66.13.8
6.06.16.0
.4
.6
.0
6.58.1
.6
5.66.81.1
1971
Number
347,424247,090100,340
78,42664,48413,937
121,04544,46076,578
69,54867,5372,015
13,67013,036
636
13,85210,4953,354
19,33716,4122,928
5,3405,320
20
13,297• 12,741
557
12,91712,610
307
/ o
100100100
22.626.113.9
34.818.076.3
20,027.3
2.4
3.95.3.6
4.04.23.3
5.66.62.9
1.52.2
.0
3.85.2.6
3.7 •5.1.3
79
CO
im
O
üJ
aXH
utü
OS
O
ioí
IBt i «
cOci ge lS3
• 5
- - ; i*> o • * • * t -
e l
ïïg-
rn TJ-' Tf vi c4 vî «rî Ö -¡ -
, \ "tf Tl-VO O« M M »1—1
oenenof^íimm ^ ^
G
aES
a•atu
to
i
o
1ii
o
fg-
i!
11
80
that the total number-of female paid employees in the major divisions ofElectricity, Gas and Water and Construction, has decreased. The changesare most marked in the case of manufacturing industries which account forthe bulk of the employment in this sector (72 per cent in 1971). Betweenthe sexes, the changes are more marked in the case of the females. A smallfraction of the own account workers may have expanded their establish-ments and become employers. But most of the change is no doubt due tochanges in organization with small establishments and establish-ments operated by own account workers closing down and yielding placeto bigger establishments using mechanised methods, in place of the tradi-tional manual methods of craftsmen.
This is the expected direction of change as economic development andindustrialisation take place, but the magnitudes are remarkable. Bothin the Industrial Sector as a whole and in the manufacturing industriesthe number of paid employees has almost doubled while the number of ownaccount workers and unpaid family workers have fallen to almost a thirdof the 1953 figure. These changes are reflected in the percentage composi-tion too. Paid employees who formed 55 per cent of those employed in1953 formed 84 per cent of those employed in 1971 while own accountworkers and unpaid family workers decreased from 45 per cent to 13 per cent.In the manufacturing industries this pattern is repeated. More detailedfigures for the manufacturing industries including the statistics for 1963 alsoare given in the Appendix. It is not surprising that the changes are moremarked in the case of females than in the case of males. It is they whoare mostly unpaid family workers or own account workers engaged in tradi-tional handicrafts on their own account, often as a spare time activity inaddition to attending to their home duties, and who are therefore mosteasily displaced by the better organised establishments using mechanisedmethods. This may in part explain the large decrease in empolyment offemales recorded in the Census of 1963, as they are less likely to seek alter-native empoyment on giving up their work and also are less likely to beappointed to the fewer places that mechanised establishments will have.
The conclusion that seems to be indicated is that employment-wiseSri Lanka's industrial development has so far been mainly in the directionof expanding and modernising the manufacture of food and clothing.
Services. As is to be expected in developing countries, which do not havea sizeable industrial sector, Sri Lanka has a fairly large Service
Sector which accounted for 28 per cent of all employment in 1971. Thegrowth of employment in this sector has kept pace with the increase in totalemployment. Statistics relating to the more important activities in theSector from the point of view of employment are shown in Table 5.14.
Wholesale and Retail trading establishments are shown together as mostof wholesale establishments are also engaged in retail trade. Retail tradeof-course forms the large bulk of this group and comprises largely of smallestablishments with a very small number of employees. The restaurantsare also mostly small establishments with very few employees. LandTransport is the principal component of the major division of Transport,
81
TABLE 5.14. EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED ACTIVITIES IN
THE SERVICE SECTOR 1953—1971
Total ServicesSector T
MF
Wholesale & Re-tail Trade T
MF
Restauranis TMF
Land Transport TMF
Public Adminis-tration and De-fence T
MF
Educational andHealth Services T
MF
DomesticServices T
MF
1952
Number
848,408695,493152,915
232,633207,253
25,380
38,11034,5343,576
84,12980,1453,984
116,202107,271
8,931
85,35652,34733,009
111,45156,67754,774
/ o
100100100
27.429.816.6
4.55.02.3
9.911.52.6
13.715.45.8
10.17.5
21.6
13.18.1
35.8
1963
Number
943,173792,766150,407
279,658260,304
19,354
60,18056,4543,726
85,14584,566
579
121,477114,063
7,414
136,34077,53558,805
95,65447,39448,260
y/o
100100100
29.732.812.9
6.47.12.5
9.010.70.4
12.914.44.9
14.59.8
39.1
10.16.0
32.1
1971
Number
1,015,193852,897162,278
278,301258,815
19,484
65,71262,360
3,351
107,559106,244
1,314
153,704141,154
12,554
178,658101,51377,132
65,25129,23136,020
V/o
100100100
27.430.312.0
6.57.32.1
10.612.50:8
15.116.57.7
17.611.947.5
6.43.4
22.2
Communication and Storage. The Ceylon Government Railway and theCeylon Transport Board which operates all public omnibus services are byfar the two largest organizations in this activity. These two establishmentsare state-run. The services of retail trade, restaurants and passenger trans-port being consumer services will have to expand in response to increase inpopulation besides any expansion resulting from economic development.
Educational and Health Services are almost totally state run servicesand it will be noted that employment in these two activities has more thandoubled between 1953 and 1971. It is also noticeable that the percentagecomposition in the case of females shows increases only in Public Adminis-
82
tration and Defence and in the Educational and Health Services. This is aresult of the change in recruitment policy in the Public Service allowingfemales to be recruited into many grades earlier reserved only for males andthe larger numbers of females entering the teaching profession which hasfor many years been the principal avenue of employment for educated women.As the educational and the health services improve, employment in theseservices will no doubt continue to increase in this way in the future.
Domestic service, not surprisingly, has shown a sharp decline both inabsolute numbers and percentage composition. Being a not very attractiveform of employment to start with, and becoming more and more expensiveto the employer, a continuing decline in the future is to be expected. Theother activities in the service sector not shown in the table are not so veryimportant from an employment point of view.
The distribution of those employed in the Service Sector by Status isshown in Table 5.15. In the case of Retail Trading establishments andRestaurants, there are quite sizeable proportions of establishments operatedby own account workers. Except for these two categories of establishments,employment in this sector is mostly in the category of paid employees.
The general trend for the proportion of paid employees to increase isnoticeable. But also noticeable is the increase in the number of employers.This is due probably to successful own account workers becoming employers.The small increase in the number of unpaid family workers between 1963and 1971 is also probably due to the success of some own account workerswho have called in family members to help in the work. Separate statisticsfor Restaurants being not available for 1953 the statistics for Retail andWholesale trade only are shown separately in Table 5.15 and they exhibitthese trends more noticeably than the statistics for the whole sector.
C. OCCUPATIONAL CLASSIFICATIONOccupational Classification. The occupational classification used at the
different censuses have been different andit is not possible to make adjustments to make them comparable. The dis-tribution of employed persons at the 1971 Census by the major groups ofthe Standard Occupational Classification for Sri Lanka are given in TableVII in the Appendix cross classified by the major divisions of the industrialclassification. Most noticeable is the high proportion of those in the WhiteCollar Occupations employed in Community and Personal Services. Thisis due to employment in the Public Service and the Health and EducationalServices.
Table 5.16 gives the 1971 occupational distribution condensed intothree groups namely ; white collar workers consisting of major groups 0 to 4of the occupational classification, agricultural workers consisting of majorgroup 6 and others consisting of all the other major groups, and classifiedby educational attainment. It appears that agricultural work seems to bethe occupation of those with little or no schooling. Almost 70 per cent ofthose with schooling up to grade V are engaged in agricultural occupations.Among those who have had a few years in high school without completingthe ' O ' level examinations the biggest group (42 per cent) falls into the
83
1/3mu<—i
oíwin
a
QWm& i
SB
S
CO<
i•3 0
&£
C
orke
r:o
unt
8
ploy
PU
Em
ploy
erT
otal
Num
ber
as
gZ
Num
ber
Num
ber
iber
Nun
en—iri
28,3
389,
685
1S,6
53n-10 00
412
991
421
Or-CM
segs
in ci oi
37,6
9535
,271
2,42
4
888
O\ OOi—1WlTj-iHNOMen 00 v i
b
V
a
1c
1ia
11\
1
1
en O\ O1—1 O en
11,6
127,
162
4,45
0
r- f"-4 OO
063
360
703
S32
t-CM-
c-Pco
t~- *it* enwncn
vo »rn—1
47,7
1145
,661
2,05
0
888w> enoivo en en
en
2
14,7
479,
650
5,09
9
rJ en oloienvo
i—» o) as00 t*-oen en 0
oJtno
00 c* ÛO
r- en ennCN'ty-* \ O *vrGO *iO »—'
62,8
3460
,123
2,71
8
888
^ . 0 0 .CM
H ^ U-
r~
. -^ OO (N
" ( S
9,49
03,
857
5,63
3
1/-1OCMOCNCN
000
" en m oi
—100m
co 00
mon
22,0
3621
,136 900
888m m ©
- vo CM m
co 0 c l
Who
lesa
le &
Ret
ail
Tra
de—
1953
T M F
mF-iM
w-i m ^
v o r - C M
en en ^ f
CN O\ en
öS0"
en en TI"
VJ "o en
Sis0 en t--•si rn
30,9
8729
,903
1,08
4.
888
looin' vomen
o 0 C\
. ri oí ^
E-S».
.fn
m o oMMOl
C\vûnoo -ri- m00 *-i rvoin—,
a i n r a
OOCOO\CM CM CM
CM m co
r-t-
f COVOrn en oiin in »n
601
347
261
?cn2
42,3
23-
40,5
131,
818
888
en 00 rf-cocoo>r-*- «o 1—«r J 04
r-
84
TABLE 5.16. DISTRIBUTION OF THOSE EMPLOYED BY OCCUPATIONAND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN 1971
Total TMF
No Schooling TMF
Grades I—V TMF
Grades VI—X TMF
G. C. E. ' O ' TMF
G. C. E. ' A ' TMF
Degree TMF
Unspecified TMF
White CollarOccupations
Number
654,598542,368112,235
2,4401,720
724
115,960108,609
7,349
274,811245,38829,423
120,60090,17730,426
65,29535,96829,332
30,12622,7597,366
45,35237,7457,608
o//o
18.119.313.8
4.14.92.9
8.09.12.9
26.326.723.2
69.166.577.3
94.691.798.4
94.593.498.0
5.79.22.2
AgriculturalOccupations
Number
1,790,9021,290,296
500,604
41,40623,40218,008
853,821681,711172,109
333,298298,23935,061
14,56613,3061,258
1,1451,095
49
386386
546,279272,152274,125
0/
/o
49.446.061A
69.366.773.0
59.157.169.1
31.832.427.6
8.49.83.2
1.72.8
.1
1.21.6
68.759.481.2
OtherOccupations
Number
1,173,861971,892201,974
15,9119,9665,945
474,254404,700
69,555
436,795374,39362,405
39,04931,3867,666
2,5642,125
438
1,3201,175
144
203,971148,14355,825
%
32.534.724.8
26.628.424.1
32.933.928.0
41.940.849.2
22.423.719.4
3.75.51.5
4.35.01.9
25.632.416.5
' others ' category of occupations—the production and service workers.Among those with at least ' O ' level education (The G.C.E. ' O ' levelexamination is at the end of 10 years of schooling and the ' A ' level exam-ination at the end of 12 years of schooling) the most popular occupationsare the white collar occupations (70 per cent among those with ' O ' levelqualifications and 95 per cent of those with higher qualifications).
That those who are educated above the ' O ' level should prefer theprofessional, administrative and other white collar occupations is to beexpected. But not so obvious perhaps is the preference for white collaroccupations among those with ' O ' level qualifications and the preferencefor the so called blue collar occupations as opposed to agricultural occupa-
85
tions among the less educated. These preferences are based on manyfactors ; such as nature of employment and employee incomes in thoseoccupations and the need for some minimal amount of capital for selfemployment. Employment in agricultural occupations is mostly at thelevel of unskilled labour with low wages and. without much assurance ofcontinued availability of employment, except on the tea, rubber and coconutestates. Self employment on own account is also possible for the poorerperson as tenant operator in small farms. Ineomes in these occupationsare low. In the blue collar occupations, more attractive employment bothfrom the point of view of the nature of employment and monetary returnsis available. The white collar occupations, of course, are the best paid notonly at the higher levels but for a long time even at the lower levels of clericalworkers and sales workers. In the Industry and Service sectors, where theblue collar and white collar jobs are found, the establishments are betterorganised and there is not only greater probability of continued employ-ment, but also the protection afforded by trade union organizations andlabour legislation. Social prestige that goes with different vocations nodoubt reflects these considerations and would also be an important factorin influencing any choice of occupation.
D. DISTRIBUTION BY STATUS
Distribution by Status. The distribution by status of those employedhas been discussed separately under each
sector. Table 5.17 shows the consolidated figures for all sectors. Theproportion of paid employees has increased between 1953 and 1971, whilethe proportion of own account workers has decreased and the proportionof employers and unpaid family workers have decreased between 1953 and1963 and then increased between 1963 and 1971. These changes are theresultants of the changes for the two sexes which have not followed identicalpatterns.
Between 1953 and 1963 the proportions of male employers and ownaccount workers have fallen, while those of paid employees and unpaidfamily workers have risen. Between 1963 and 1971 the proportions ofemployers and paid employees have risen while those of own accountworkers and unpaid family workers have fallen. In general it would appearthat between 1953 and 1963 there has been a relative contraction in selfemployment. This would have resulted in some paid employees also losingtheir positions and becoming unpaid family workers or being unemployedin the absence of other employment. Between 1963 and 1971 there hasbeen an increase in the case of employers and decrease in the case of unpaidfamily workers, but the number unemployed has risen.
In the case of the females, however, there had been decreases in totalemployment and in employment under every category other than paidemployees between 1953 and 1963. The larger decreases, have been record-ed under the categories of own account workers and unpaid family workers.As has been mentioned elsewhere, the decreases may be due to two causes.Firstly, due to displacement of workers from employment as industry be-came organised and traditional methods and crafts were supplanted and
86
ní
1a a0 g
o S
D
CR
scel
s
Fam
il
8S1
Em
pPa
id
u
O
n £
a-3O
Acc
Eoa
ber
Num
¿ag
Nu
X
ber
Z
s o
ber
ËpZ
\ o
ber
s •
ber
z
1
1
001
?en
2,99
3
I
• [
VDIO
•O
O
169
C I
6129
51,
832
^
oöm
156
CO
3.14
-3-OO
C l
H-
195
1
1
100
o
r-
2,26
8i
i
—
c^
75,1
oT
59
OSS
1,34
7
,„tn
en
414
vo
3.73
643
1
1
100
ftVO
724
VOO \
rjf\
93,
oOl
745
T
CO
742
361.
2720
0
U. •
r»
869
6310
03,
195
vo
CO
3
i n
104
162
o
VO
057
2,08
0
r*VD
975
532.
4494
1
h -
' H -
. 19
6
oor -
691
100
-T
2,54
0
m
v;
P,o
362
611
46
S
932
m
553
C l
OlcT
184
• ^ -
CO
17S
001
CO
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. 19
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827
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secondly due to those engaged in agricultural activities being enumeratedas attending to home duties in 1963 as the census in that year was taken inJuly which is a slack month for agricultural activity. In fact most of theloss between 1953 and 1963 under agricultural occupations in the categoriesof own account workers and unpaid family workers have been madeup in 1971. No such increases have been recorded in non-agriculturaloccupations.
E. UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment. The last two columns in table 5.17 show the statisticsof unemployed persons in absolute numbers and
as a percentage of the total labour fores. As stated at ths beginningof this chapter the recording of data relating to the unemployed haschanged between the censuses. In 1946 and 1953 only those earlieremployed but temporarily unemployed were enumerated as such. Thefigures were 25,058 in 1946 and 22,694 (8,469 males and 14,225 females)in 1953. In 1963 those unemployed but not previously employed werealso enumerated and 77 per cent of the 260,982 persons unemployed werethose who had never been employed previously. In 1971 those personswithout employment and willing to accept work but not actually seekingwork were also included among the unemployed and 42 per cent (37 per centamong males and 48 per cent among females) of the unemployed wereof this category. The • statistics are therefore, not comparable, nor is iteasy to make any adjustments to make them comparable. The change ofdefinition would have affected the statistics relating to males and femalesdifferently. In 1963 only those actively seeking work were enumerated asunemployed. This could have been interpreted by enumerators strictlyin the sense that a person should be registered at the local employmentexchange or at the other extreme as looking for work which may mean verylittle.
Persons not in employment could bs assigned by the enumerator toone of the categories of " unemployed " or " other " and in the case offemales " engaged in home duties ". It is very likely that most enumerators'wary of using the category " other " would have enumerated most of themales not in employment as unemployed even if they were not making anyserious efforts at finding employment while enumerating the females of thesame description as " engaged in home duties ".
The change in definition in 1971 is not therefore likely to have seriouslyaffected the classification of males. In the case of females however, thechange in definition is likely to have increased the number of females un-employed and hence in the labour force by the inclusion of many femaleswho would have been recorded as unemployed on the basis that they werewilling to accept work. This willingness, however, would probably besubject to rigorous restrictions as to the nature of the work that was accep-table. Non-existence of such work may have been the very reason for theirnot seeking work.
TABLE 5.18. UNEMPLOYED PERSONS AGED 15—59 YEARS CLASSIFIED BYAGE AND SEX 1963—71
AgeYears
15—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940—4445—4950—5455—59
15—59
Males
1963
Number
53,08660,02123,77112,0367,8595,1794,5683,9023,920
174,342
As%ofthe
labourforce
22.216.06.73.52.42.11.92.22.9
7.1
1971
Number
12,3861155,60561,97925,32317,06112,16810,0907,3785,982
419,447
As%ofthe
labourforce
37.128.413.97.14.94.03.73.63.8
14.0
Females
1963
Number
15,53123,028
9,9833,0881,417
948936913885
56,729
As%ofthe
labourforce
14.317.89.83.91.81.71.82.84.7
8.6
1971
Number
78,662122,39159,88425,56714,9069,8708,2375,615438
329,420
As%ofthe
labourforce
44.046.232.320.912.811.610.611.715.6
29.8
Table 5.18 presents the distribution of the unemployed by age and sexfor the years 1963 and 1971. The increase in unemployment as representedby these figures is as explained earlier, partly due to the change in definition.The markedly different rates for males and females in 1971 as comparedwith 1963 support the view that the change in definition is likely to havehad a greater effect on the statistics of unemployment of females. Thedifference between the census years is only eight years. Even if we comparethe unemployed in any age group, in 1963 with that of the next but oneage group in 1971, we find increases in the number unemployed in manyage groups and particularly in the ages over 30 years. This cannot be duesolely to those employed in 1963 being unemployed in 1971 but in largermeasure due to those who were not considered unemployed as they were notactually seeking employment in 1963 being so classified in 1971. Thisdiscrepancy is even more evident in the case of females.
The very large increases in unemployment at the younger ages of lessthan 30 years particularly among males, however, are largely due to a genuineincrease in the number unemployed.
CHAPTER VI
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
A. INTRODUCTION
While the size and age composition of a population determinesthe labour supply of a country the absolute and relative sizes of thepopulation in the pre-school age, school age, working age, old age andother age groupings are of fundamental importance in assessing the demandfor and supply of basic economic and social services in the country. Hencethe expected future size and age distribution of the population providesthe essential basis for any realistic planning for the economic and socialdevelopment of a country.
Demographers are averse to calling their estimates of the futurepopulation as " forecasts " or " predictions ". They call them " projec-tions " instead. A population projection is not a forecast in the strictsense of the word but an estimate of what the future population would beunder certain specified assumptions as to the future course of fertility,mortality and migration. Of course, the assumptions made with regardto these three factors are based on a study of past trends as a guide to themost probable trends in the future. Such trends however have an elementof uncertainty attached to them and hence the avoidance of the term " fore-cast ".
In view of this uncertainty it is customary to make projections basedon alternative assumptions. A projection based on the most likely courseof future events is generally called the Medium Projection. Alternativeprojections based on alternative assumptions within the limits of plausibilityindicating the higher and lower limits to the future population are calledHigh and Low Projections respectively. Besides their use as upper andlower limits to the future population, High and Low Projections also serveto illustrate the implications of different trends in fertility, mortality andmigration. This could be a useful guide for decisions on questions ofpopulation policy.
The generally accepted method of making a population projection,provided the necessary data is available, is the component method. In thismethod one starts from the existing population classfied by sex and ageand applies assumed age specific survival ratios to determine the number ofsurvivors at the future date. Assumed birth rates for each age group ofwomen are utilized to determine the number of births that will occur in thefuture. To these births are applied appropriate survival ratios to determinethe number of survivors in the future.
90
B. POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SRI LANKA
The Population projections by sex and age presented in this chapterhave been prepared by the component method.
Three different projections viz : High, Medium and Low have beencomputed on the basis of 3 different assumptions with regard to the futurecourse of fertility combined with a single assumption regarding future trendsin mortality.
During the period 1963—1971 age specific fertility rates for womenhave declined, the biggest declines being in the 20—-24 and 25—29 year agegroups. With the adoption and spread of family planning activities it ismost likely that fertility levels will decline gradually to reasonably low levels.This is indicated by the fertility declines that have already occured duringthe period 1963—1971. The Medium projection is based on the assumptionof a gradual fertility decline to 60 per cent of the present levels by 2001, andmay be taken as the one which represents the most probable future popula-tion of the country.
The High projection based on the assumption of fertility levels stabilis-ing after only a slight decline below the 1971 level may be taken as an upperlimit to the future population. This is likely to be the course taken by thepopulation if the family planning program now under way does not proveto be as effective as might be desired.
The low projection is based on the assumption of a very rapid declinein fertility to 50 per cent of the 1971 level within a period of 15 years. Thisis a very optimistic assumption and the chances of this being achieved arerather remote. However, such an assumption has been made in order todetermine what the population and its structure would be in the event ofsuch a decline actually taking place. It represents the lower limit of thepopulation and shows that even a very rapid fertility decline cannot preventá considerable increase in the population of the country.
With regard to mortality only one single assumption has been made.It is assumed that mortality will decline gradually with the expectation oflife increasing to 72.2 years for females and 68.5 years for males by the year2001 A.D.
The base population i.e., the starting point of the projection is the1971 mid-year population. The 1971 census age distribution based on the10 per cent sample was corrected for under-enumeration of children under5 years and graduated to remove the effect of age reporting errors. Theproportions in the adjusted age distribution was then used to distribute theestimated population as at mid-year 1971 among the various sex and agegroups to provide the sex-age distribution for the initial year of the pro-jection.
91
The relative importance of the assumptions In a population projectionwith regard to future fertility and mortality, made by the component
method the projected popula-tion may be divided into 2 parts as follows :—
A. The survivors in the future of the population that is already aliveas on the base date, that is mid-year 1971. For example thepersons aged 0—4 on 1.7.71 were all alive on this date. Thesurvivors of this group after exactly five years on 1.7.76 will yieldthe 5—9 group as on 1.7.1976 and so on.
B. The survivors of the births that will occur in the future periodcommencing on the base date. For example the survivors of thebirths that occur during the five year period 1.7.1971—1.7.1976will yield the population aged 0—4 as on 1.7.1976.
The figures in A are dependent only on the assumed course of futuremortality because future births do not enter into these computations. Bhowever, is dependent on future fertility as well as mortality.
Since mortality is already at a fairly low level, future trends can bepredicted with reasonable accuracy. Predicted mortality rates woulddiffer only slightly from the actual future rates and the resulting error inthe future population estimates would be relatively small. Hence this partof the projection which gives the population aged 5 and over in 1976, 10and over in 1981, 15 and over in 1986, 20 and over in 1991, 25 and over in1996 and 30 and over in 2001 may be taken as a reasonably accurate esti-mates of the future population in the respective age groups. It may alsobe noted that the figures for these age groups are the same in the High,Medium and Low projections.
The future course of fertility is however more difficult to predictand the actual future rates may turn out to be entirely different fromthe assumed ones. It is because of this uncertainty that three differentassumptions are made with regard to fertility.
The Projected Population. The projections illustrate the demographicimplications of the continuing growth of
the population.
Table 6.1 below shows the total population of Sri Lanka at intervalsof 5 years according to the three projections. The implied average annualrates of growth are also shown.
92
TABLE 6.1. PROJECTED TOTAL POPULATION OF SRI LANKA1971—2001 A.D. AND THE IMPLIED AVERAGE ANNUAL
RATES OF GROWTH
Year
19711976198119861991199620011971—2001
Population as at mid-year ('000)
High Projection
Population
12,76214,28315,96017,88520,00922,29124,730
—
Averageannualrate ofgrowth
2.32.32.32.32.22.12.2
Medium
Population
12,76214,28315,82617,35718,86820,33821,786
—
projection
Averageannualrate ofgrowth
2.32.11.91.71.51.41.8
Low Projection
Population
12,76214,20815,33916,24417,24518,31319,315
—
Averageannual
rate ofgrowth
2.21.61.21.21.21.11.4
The High projection shows that if the age specific fertility rates remainedstable after 1981 at rates only slightly below the 1971 level the populationwill continue to grow at 2.3 per cent per annum and will very nearly doubleitself to 24.7 million in the period of 30 years from 1971 to 2001. This willbe the result if family planning is not adopted by the large majority of thepopulation and provided that no catastrophic event occurs to deplete thepopulation.
If the future course of fertility follows the trends assumed in the Mediumprojection, the population in 2001 will be 21.8 million, an increase of 70per cent. The rate of growth declines gradually from 2.3 per cent in theperiod 1971—76 to 1.4 per cent in the period 1996—2001. This will bethe result if observed declines in fertility during the period 1963—71 con-tinue into the future and the rates stabilise at 60 per cent of the 1971 ratesin the five year period 1996—2001. This assumption with regard to fertilityis the one which is most likely to be followed in the future upto the year2001.
The low projection which assumes a rapid fertility decline gives anestimated population of 19.3 million in the year 2001. The rate of growthtoo drops sharply to 1.2 in the period 1981—1986 and remains constantthereafter. Thus even if fertility registers a dramatic drop, as dramatic asthe decline in mortality in the period 1946—1950, and the rate of growthtoo drops to 1.2, the population in 2001 will be 19.3 million, an increase of51 per cent. This is because the potential for population growth has alreadybeen built into the age structure of the population and even a rapid declineof fertility to 50 per cent of the 1971 levels in a period of 15 years cannotoffset the increasing numbers of females who will be entering the reproduc-tive age groups in the immediate future.
93
C. TRENDS IN AGE STRUCTURE AND FUNCTIONAL AGE GROUPS
Apart from the growth in the total population, changes in the agestructure have important implications for the planning of economic andsocial development. The future population in the pre-school age, school age,working age and old age groups are shown in Table 6.2.
TABLE 6.2. PROJECTED POPULATION BY FUNCTIONAL AGE GROUPS1971 —2001—HIGH, MEDIUM AND LOW PROJECTIONS
CO0O)
High Projection1971
1976
1981
1986
199119662001
Medium Projection1971197619811986199119962001
1971197619811986199119962001
TotalPopulation
Number
12,762
14,283
15,960
17,885
20,00922,29124,730
12,76214,28315,82617,35718,86820,33821,786
12,76214,20815,33916,24417,24518,31319,315
%
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0100.0100.0
100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Pre-schoolAge Group(0—4 years)
Number
1,748
1,885
2,091
2,379
2,6222,8533,067
1,7481,8851,9621,9962,0192,0342,070
1,7481,8191,5491,3481,5001,5931,622
V.
13.7
13.2
13.1
13.3
13.112.812.4
13.713.212.411.510.710.09.5
13.712.810.18.38.78.78.4
SchoolAge Group(5—14 years)
Number
3,254
3,399
3,559
3,899
4,3824,9265,391
3,2543,3993,5613,7663,8683,9253,965
3,2543,3963,4973,2812,8452,8203,032
%
25.5
23.8
22.3
21.8
21.922.121.8
25.523.822.521.720.519.318.2
25.523.922.820.216.515.45.7
WorkingAge Group(15—64 years)
Number
7,223
8,370
9,592
10,749
11,98513,33114,937
7,2248,3719,575
10,74511,98113,19914,400
7,2248,3829,572
10,75411,90012,71013,309
%
56.6
58.6
60.1
60.1
59.959.860.4
56.658.660.561.963.564.966.1
56.659.062.466.269.069.468.9
Old AgeGroup 65 years
and above
Number
537
629
718
858
1,0201,1811,335
536628728850
1,0001,1801,351
536611721861
1,0001,1901,352
%
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.8
5.15.35.4
4.24.44.64.95.35.86.2
4.24.34.75.35.86.57.0
The Pre-School age group.(0—4 years)
A comparison of the three different projectionsshows that the most significant advantage tobe gained from a decline in fertility is a reduc-
tion in size of the pre-school age group. The pre-school age group standsat 1,748,000 in 1971. By 2001 it increases to 3,067,000 i.e., by 75 per centaccording to the high projection compared to only 2,070,000 or by 18 percent according to the medium projection. In the low projection the pre-school age group increases to 1,819,000 in 1976, decreases to 1,348,000 in1986 and then increases again to 1,622,000 in 2001. The figure in the year2001 is smaller than the figure in 1971.
School age Population. In the more developed regions of the world,(5—14 years) children under 15 years of age constitute only 28
per cent of the population whereas in the less developed regions the percen-tage under 15 years is 42(1). The figure for Sri Lanka in 1971 was 39.2.
(1) The World Population Situation in 1970 (United Nations Publication, SalesNo. E. 71 Xni 4) Page 50.
94
It may be seen from the figures in Table 6.2 that the main advantageto be gained by a fertility decline is a bigger reduction in the proportion ofchildren under 15 years. According to the High projection, the proportionwill be 34.2 per cent in the year 2001. The number of children of schoolage (5—14 years) will increase by 65.6 per cent from 3,254,000 in 1971 to5,391,000 in 2001. This represents a net addition of 2,137,000 to the child-ren of school age.
The corresponding figures according to the medium projection are27.7 per cent of children under 15 years of age. The school age populationwill increase from 3,254,000 in 1971 to 3,965,000 in 2001 A.D. an increase ofonly 713,000. This is only about a third of the addition to this age groupunder the high projection.
The low projection shows that if a rapid decline in fertility were totake place, the population of school age will remain about the same for thenext thirty years. However the proportion of the population that is ofschool age will decline from 25.5 per cent in 1971 to 15.7 per cent in 2001.
Working Age Group. The projected figures of the population of working( 15—64 years) age under the three different assumptions do not
differ by appreciable amounts. In fact, up to theyear 1986 the figures are the same. This is because the persons who will be15 years and over in each of the years upto 1986 have already been born by1971 and reductions in the number of births taking place after 1971 will notaffect these numbers. The reduced number of births occuring after 1971will effect the working age group only after 1986. From that year onwardsthe numbers begin to decline under the assumption of a fertility decline.The population of working age doubles itself during the three decades underconsideration. According to the High projection the population of workingage will be 14,937,000 in 2001 while under the medium projection the figurewill be 14,400,000.
However, the percentage of the population in the working age groupwill be 66.1 per cent under the medium projection as compared to 60.4 inthe high projection.
Thus the reduction in fertility will not ease the problem of unemploy-ment and its solution during the next 2 or 3 decades. However, in the longrun when the survivors of the reduced births occuring after 1971 begin toenter the working age group in the period 1986—1990 and after the numbersin the working age-group will begin to decline and the problem will be easedthereafter.
The old age group The size of the old age group is the same under all(65 years and over) three projections for the simple reason that the persons
who comprise this group in the future years underconsideration have already been born and were adults in 1971. The sizeof the group which is 537,000 in 1971 increases to 1,335,000 in 2001. Thisis about 2\ times the size in 1971.
95
The percentage of the total population in the old age group rises from4.2 in 1971 to 5.4 in 2001 under the high projection. Under the mediumprojection the percentage in 2001 is 6.2.
The Dependency Ratio. The number of persons aged 0—14 and 65 andover per 100 persons aged 15—64 years, called
the dependency ratio is shown in Table 6.3 for all three projections. Thisratio indicates the number of dependents, both young and old, in the popula-tion to every 100 persons in the working age group.
TABLE 6. 3. DEPENDENCY RATIOS ACCORDING TO THETHREE PROJECTIONS 1971—2001
1971197619811986199119962001
High
76.870.566.566.367.067.265.7
Medium
76.870.565.161.457.554.151.2
Low
76.869.660.151.044.843.945.1
In the High projection the decline in the dependency ratio is muchless than in the Medium or Low projections. The dependency ratio whichstood at 76.8 in 1971 declines to 65.7 in the High projection by the year 2001.In the Medium projection the ratio declines to 51.2 in the year 2001. Inthe Low projection the ratio declines to 51.0 in the year 1986, thus achievingin 15 years the same reduction that is achieved in 30 years in the Mediumprojection. The ratio declines further to 43.9 in 1996 and increases againto 45.1 n the year 2001.
D. THE LABOUR FORCE
The Labour Force is generally understood to comprise the employedpopulation as well as those unemployed but available for work. The futurelabour force could be calculated by applying estimated future activity ratesin each age group to the population in the corresponding age group. Thismethod applied to the two sexes yields the male and female labour forcesseparately.
Activity Rates. The male and female activity rates according to the censusesof 1963 and 1971 are shown in Table 6.4.
96
TABLE 6.4. ACTIVITY RATES BY AGE AND SEX—1963 AND 1971
Total 10 & over10—1415—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-4445^*950—5455—5960—64
65 and over
Male
1963
69.28.1
46.284.494.196.596.896.195.792.787.876.752.2
1971
68.06.3
48.689.296.997.897.396.895.792.380.965.640.7
Female
1963
20.04.3
21.629.327.725.025.925.926.021.417.511.46.0
1971
25.64.1
26.442.239.334.832.630.929.824.516.710.55.1
ProjectedRates
Females
2001
3.931.255.150.744.439.235.733.427.517.316.75.1
The male and female activity rates in the 10—14 age group show aslight decline from 1963—1971. The activity rates in the age range 15—44show increases for both males and females but the increases for the femalesare more substantial. The female activity rate for the age group 20—24has increased from 29.3 per cent in 1963 to 42.2 per cent in 1971. It musthowever be mentioned that these increases are mainly due to a dispropor-tionate increase in the unemployed persons rather than to any increases inthe actual numbers employed. The activity rates beyond age 55 show adecrease for both males and females.
Projected Activity Rates. For the purpose of projecting the labour forceinto the future it is necessary to project the
activity rates on the basis of some plausible assumption with regard to thecourse these rates will take in the future. In the case of the males it hasbeen assumed that 1971 rates will remain constant in all age groups exceptthe 10—14 age group. In the 10—14 age group it is assumed that the ratewill decline linearly to 4.5 per cent in 2001.
In the case of the females it is assumed that the activity rates will increaselinearly to the values indicated in the last column of Table 6.4.
It has already been pointed out that the population of working agedoes not differ appreciably in the 3 different projections. As the mediumprojection is regarded as the one expected to conform most closely to thefuture population, the projected activity rates have been applied to thisprojection in order to obtain the future labour force. No attempt is madeto estimate the labour force according to the other two projections as these
97
will not differ very much from that corresponding to the medium projection.The projected labour force figures by sex are given in Table 6.5 below.The projected labour force by sex and age is given in Table IX in the Appen-dix.
TABLE 6.5. PROJECTED LABOUR FORCE BY SEX 1971—2001
C000)
1971197619811986199119962001
Total
4,4345,1725,9546,7447,5448,3599,145
Male
3,2653,7764,3214,8755,4406,0176,578
Female
1,1691,3961,6331,8692,1042,3422,567
Per cent of females inthe Labour Force
26.427.027.427.727.928.028.1
As we have taken the lower age limit for the labour force as 10 yearscurrent changes in fertility will not affect the size of the labour force until1981. Moreover, since the activity rates for the age group 10—14 are verylow the effect of current fertility changes will be negligible until tho year1986. Hence the labour force projections until 1986 may be taken as fairlyaccurate forecasts upto the period 1986. Estimates of the size and composi-tion of the labour force for the years after 1986 therefore have to be inter-preted with caution in view of the uncertainty with regard to fertility trends.
The labour force increases from 4.4 million in 1971 to 6.7 million in1986, an increase of 52 per cent in 15 years. The male component increasesby 50 per cent and the female component by 60 per cent.
By the year 2001 the total labour force will be a little more than twicethe size in 1971. The percentage increase from 1986—2001 is 36 per centcompared to the increase of 52 per cent in the period 1971—1986.
Age and sex composition of the The proportion of females in the labourfuture Labour Force. force grows steadily from 26.4 per cent
in 1971 to 28.1 per cent in 2001 (Table 6.5).This is of course due to the assumption that female activity rates will continueto rise while male activity rates will remain stationary.
The changing age composition of the labour force is shown in table 6.6.
The proportion in the 10—19 age group continues to decrease until2001 for both males as well as females. The proportion in the 2fJ—34age group increases slightly to 1986 and declines again by 2001 to a littleless than the percentage in 1971.
The proportion in the age group 35—54 increases from 34.1 per cent in1971 to 40.4 per cent in 2001 for males. The corresponding increase forfemales is from 27.1 per cent to 32.0 per cent. Thus on the whole thelabour force can be expected to contain a larger proportion of older workersin the future under the assumption of a gradual decline in fertility.
TABLE 6.6. PERCENTAGE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE LABOURFORCE BY SEX 1971, 1986 AND 2001
Age
Total 10 & over10—19
10—1415—19
20—3420—2425—34
35—5435—4445—54
55 and over
Both
1971
13.91.9
12.0
44.417.526.9
32.218.613.6
9.7
Sexes
1986 2001
11.11.39.8
47.017.030.0
32.320.012.3
9.8
9.40.98.5
41.915.026.9
38.122.116.0
10.6
1971
12.21.5
10.7
42.216.026.2
34.119.414.7
11.5
Males
1986
9.61.08.6
44.815.329.5
33.920.713.2
11.7
2001
7.90.77.2
39.113.026.1
40.423.217.2
12.6
]
1971
18.42.7
15.7
50.121.628.5
27.116.610.5
4.4
7emalss
1986
16.53.6
12.9
52.321.430.9
28.018.19.9
4.8
2001
13.21.5
11.7
49.020.128.9
32.019.112.9
5.8
E. THE URBAN POPULATION
According to the censuses the urban component of the population hasgrown steadily from 15.4 per cent in 1946 to 22.4 per cent in 1971.
TABLE 6.7. URBAN RURAL ISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATIONOF SRI LANKA
Year
1946195319631971
Per cent
Urban
15.415.319.122.4
Rural
84.684.780.977.6
In both the 1946 census and the 1953 census, areas delimited for localgovernment purposes as Municipal Councils and as Urban Councils wereincluded under the Urban category. Areas delimited as Town Councilswere included under the rural category. In 1963, however Town Council
99
areas were transferred into the urban category and this partly accounts forthe sudden increase in the urban component to 19.1 per cent in 1963. Thedefinition of urban areas in the 1971 census was the same as in 1963.
Table 6.8 below attempts to compare the population of those areaswhich were classified as Urban in both the 1963 and 1971 censuses.
TABLE 6.8. URBAN POPULATION ACCORDING TO THE 1963AND 1971 CENSUS
(a) Total (Urban & Rural)(b) All Urban areas(c) All areras which were
classified as urban in1963 as well a-, in 1971
(d) All urban areas whichexisted as Municipaland urban councils in1963
1963
Population
10,582,0642,014,285
2,014,285
1,587,625
%
100.019.0
19.0
15.0
1971
Population
12,711,1432,842,077
2,337,951
1,848,162
/ o
100.022.4
18.4
14.5
Per centIncrease1963—71
20.141.1
16.1
16.4
Between 1963 and 1971 the urban population increased by 41.1 per centcompared to an increase of 20.1 per cent in the total population of thecountry. However when only the areas which were classified as urban inthe census of 1963 as well as in 1971 are considered, the population increaseof these areas is only 16.1 per cent. Thus the growth rate of populationwithin the areas specified as urban in 1963 was lower than that of the countryas a whole. Hence the increase in the urban component of the populationfrom 19.0 per cent in 1963 to 22.4 per cent in 1971 was solely due to theaccretion of new urban areas. The population of such newly added urbanareas in 1971 was 504,126 compared to the increase of 323,666 in the popula-tion within the areas that existed as urban in 1963.
Since in the past the rate of growth of the population within urbanareas has been somewhat lower than the all island rate of growth it is un-likely that in the future, the population within urban areas will grow at ahigher rate than the island as a whole. The growth of the total urbanpopulation is likely to continue to be due primarily to the creation of newurban areas. Hence for the purpose of projecting the urban populationit has been assumed that the urban component of the population will in-crease linearly to 30 per cent in 2001. On this assumption the projectedurban population according to the High, Medium and Low projections aregiven in Table 6.9.
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TABLE 6.9. PROJECTED URBAN POPULATION 1971—2001
Year
1971197619811986199119962001
Per centUrban
22.423.724.926.227.428.730.0
Urban population according to
HighProjection
2,859,0003,386,0003,974,0004,686,0005,483,0006,397,0007,419,000
MediumProjection
2,859,0003,386,0003,940,0004,548,0005,169,0005,837,0006,536,000
LowProjection
2,859,0003,367,0003,819,0004,256,0004,898,0005,256,0005,795,000
CHAPTER VII
ECONOMIC AND SOCIALIMPLICATIONS AND POLICY
A. INTRODUCTION
Over the years, governments in Sri Lanka have pursued economic andsocial policies, designed to secure maximum welfare to its population.These policies have contributed towards (a) a better distribution ofincome and wealth, (b) substantial improvements in literacy andeducation and (c) better standards of health. These welfare measureswere maintained in spite of rising costs due to the sharp increasesin population. While the rate of social advance was remarkable, the necessarytransformation of the economy to sustain the welfare measures did not takeplace simultaneously. This led to a difficult situation, where the need forresources turned out to be far in excess of their availability. Accordingly,the economic and social policies pursued in the past have been redesigned tofacilitate the co-ordination of economic growth with desired social change.A comprehensive plan for economic and social development, covering theperiod 1972—76, has been drawn up. The plan outlines the various policymeasures for ensuring the smooth transformation of the economy and forthe realisation of the social objectives. The genesis of the current economicand social policies and their implications for development are reviewed inthe rest of this Chapter.
B. BACKGROUND TO THE CURRENT ECONOMICAND SOCIAL SITUATION
Sri Lanka provides many welfare services free or at nominalcost to its people, chief amongst which are subsidised food, freeeducation and health schemes, transport subsidies, etc. The result isthat almost 80 per cent of Government expenditure is incurredon recurrent items, as can be seen from Table 7.1 below. For thefinancial year 1970/71, whereas the Government spent 20 per centof the resources available on capital expenditure, it spent almostan equal amount in providing free health and education facilities to thepopulation and a slightly lesser proportion on subsidising the major fooditems consumed in the country.
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TABLE 7.1. BREAKDOWN OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ATCURRENT PRICES
Items
Total expenditureI. Current Payments
Of which(a) Defence & administration(b) Social servicesOf whichHealth and education(c) Economic services (agriculture,
irrigation, fisheries and com-munications etc.)
(d) Transfer paymentsOf whichFood Subsidy
II. Capital paymentsIII. Net payments for operations
financed through advance accounts
1969—70
3,915.12,824.5
820.8732.9
708.1
130.31,256.6
537.8883.1
207.5
Source : Central Bank of Ceylon—Annual Report for
(Rupees Million)
1970—71
3,975.43,094.9
1,009.6746.6
721.5
151.91,419.9
612.3799.6
80.9
Percentage oftotal 1970—71
10077.8
25.418.8
18.1
3.835.7
15.420.1
2.03
1972—Table 36, Appendix III.
The impact of these wide ranging welfare measures on the country'seconomy was to gradually constrain the availability of resources for theexpansion of production. Population growth, increased cost of welfaremeasures and the continued clamour for improvement in the quantity andquality of free welfare services were all factors, which contributed to asituation, where social reform could no longer be sustained by the economy.At the time these social welfare polies were initiated, the economyhad the strength to support their implementation. But with the passageof time, economic expansion turned out to be inadequate to meet the ex-penditures involved in maintaining the welfare policies. The main reasonsfor the slowing down of economic development were (1) the non-availabilityof sufficient funds for investment after meeting the expenditure on welfareheeds ; and (2) rigidity in the economic structure making it incapable ofresponding to changing situations both in the domestic and external spheres.
On the other hand, the welfare measures contributed immensely towardsinvestment in human resources. The universal access to education, theavailability of free health services, the provision of a significant subsidy inthe supply of food items were all instrumental in the creation of a consider-able resource of educated and healthy manpower. In the event, this largeinvestment in human resources without the creation of matching oppor-tunities for their utilisation, resulted in a gradual increase in the number ofunemployed persons.
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The continued increase in welfare expenditure imposed an intolerablestrain on government revenues. Despite a very high level of taxation,government revenue collections had become insufficient to meet even thecommitments towards recurrent expenditure. Often the deficit on currentaccount had to be bridged mainly through expansionary financing. Thecapital account was invariably financed through domestic borrowing andforeign aid. Table 7.2 shows the details of government fiscal operationsduring 1969/70 and 1970/71.
TABLE 7.2. GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS SHOWINGTHE BUDGET DEFICIT AND ITS FINANCING
1. Government Revenue2. Government Expenditure
Of which(a) Recurrent expenditure(b) Capital expenditure(c) Advance account & others
3. Budget deficit
4. Financing the Budget Deficit(a) Domestic non market borrowing(b) Domestic market borrowing(c) Foreign financeid) Decline in cash balance
5. Expansionary impact of fiscal operation6. Total of items 5 and 4C as a % of 3
1969—70
2,7363,886
2,873812201
1,150
16815343
—2642567.8
(Rs. million)1970—71
2,8154,143
3,225810108
1,327
14069337012321844.3
Source : Central Bank Annual Report 1972, Table II (G) I—Page 126 and 127.
As can be seen from Table 7.2 in the financial year 1970/71, 44 per centof the finance needed to bridge the budget deficit was found either fromforeign finance or from expansionary borrowing from the banking system.Foreign finance alone accounted for 28 per cent of the financing of thebudget deficit during this financial year. It would be an over simplificationto view Sri Lanka's problem as one of essentially restoring balance to thegovernment budget. Unless the overall resources available to the countrycould be substantially increased, prospects of continued improvement in theliving standards of a growing population would be very much limited.Increasing the level of living requires that the total production of goodsand services should expand more rapidly than the population. Expansionof goods and services would be possible only through the further utilizationand the creation of new production capacities. This points to the need fora greater allocation of resources for invesment to build up the productivecapacities of the economy and to provide more employment to the people.
The economic record during the sixties has been one of modest achie-vement. The gross national product increased at an annual rate of around
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4 per-cent. Rice production increased at a faster rate, but was still notadequate to meet the full domestic requirements. The ratio of investmentto domestic product was around 16 per cent and even here, a sizable pro-portion was financed by foreign capital. The terms of trade for the country'smajor exports continuously worsened, thus aggravating an already difficultforeign exchange situation. By the end of the sixties, the country was inthe grip of a vicious circle. While the public were cushioned against theeffects of Sri Lanka's deteriorating foreign exchange position, this turnedout to be at the cost of much needed economic development. In brief, th&unfavourable externalconditions, together with the rigidities in the economywere direct contributory factors for the emergence of large scale unemploy-ment and attendant social tensions.
C. ECONOMICAL AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
The interrelationship between population growth and economic deve-lopment has been widely discussed in recent times. It has been shown thatin the developed countries the fall in the death rate has been gradual andhad commenced subsequent to or at least simultaneously with aconomicdevelopment. Hence the growth of the population in these countries inno way inhibited the process of economic development but was a positivefactor contributing to socio-economic growth.
In the developing countries, on the other hand, the fall in the deathrate following World War II has been much more rapid and has occurred inadvance of or in the absence of economic development. At the same timebirth rates continued to remain at a high level. The net result, a sharpincrease in population far in excess of what the countries could presentlycope with in order to maintain living standards, has therefore been a majorobstacle to the process of economic development.
While the gap in the living standards of the developed and developingcountries continues to widen, there has also been a ' revolution of risingexpectations' in the developing countries. Economic development hasbecome a major pre-occupation of the governments of the developing coun-tries whose aim is to increase the real incomes of the people as fast as possible.However, the rapid growth of population in most of the countries has hada retarding effect on economic growth. In Sri Lanka too there has been agrowing awareness of the magnitude of the problem which is now receivingthe urgent attention of the Government. The economic and social implica-tions of the growth of Sri Lanka's population and the role of populationpolicy as an element in economic and social policy is considered in therest of this chapter.
The rapid increase in population is not merely a problem with seriousimplications for future welfare but one which has already proved to be theunderlying cause of numerous social and economic problems in the country.In comparison to countries in the Asian region, Sri Lanka has a veryhigh density of population. At the 1971 census, the density was 502 personsper square mile. The pressure of population, particularly on the cultivatedland, is very heavy and the extent of arable land available for further culti-
105
vation is very limited. According to a recent study(l) the area cultivatedhas increased by about 0.7 per cent per annum between 1946 and 1969,while the rural population has increased by about 2.5 per cent per annumduring the same period. The density of rural population per cultivatedacre has increased steadily from 1.34 in 1946 to 2.02 in 1969. Since addi-tional land that can be brought under cultivation is limited any rapid in-crease in rural population will undoubtedly further aggravate the problemof fragmentation and uneconomic size of land holdings.
A rapidly growing population will also have a very serious impacton the food situation. During the past two decades Sri Lanka has madeconsiderable progress in increasing the production of food both by expand-ing the area under cultivation as well as by increasing the average yields.The total production of paddy, increased from 14.5 million bushels in 1950to 65.9 million bushels in 1969. The production of subsidiary foodstuffssuch as potatoes, onions, chillies etc. has also increased substantially. Inspite of this progress in food production self sufficiency in the matter offood has not been achieved and about Rs. 970 million worth of rice and otheressential food items have to be imported from other countries. The in-creased production has therefore been largely used for feeding the increasingpopulation and has not been sufficient to narrow the gap between domesticrequirements and domestic production to an appreciable extent. Theneed to import substantial quantities of cereals and other foods from abroadin the context of rising import prices and falling prices for exports inevitablyweakens Sri Lanka's foreign exchange position, thereby putting a brake onher own industrial and agricultural development, and postpones the daywhen the country could be independent of foreign economic aid. Despiteimprovements that have already been achieved, there is still a deficiency inregard to the nutritional quality of food since commodities like milk, meat,fish, eggs, fruits and vegetables are not sufficient to meet the country'srequirements and do not form an adequate portion of the averagediet. In the context of a rapidly increasing population, there has to be asubstantial increase in both the output and the nutritional value of food ifa deterioration in food and nutritional intake is to be prevented.
The high rate of population growth has aggravated the unemploymentsituation in the country. At present unemployment has become a veryserious problem. According to the 1971 census about 700,000 persons or18 per cent of the labour force remained unemployed. This high level ofunemployment stems largely from the rapid growth of population in thepostwar period which had caused a virtual explosion in the population ofworking age in the 1960's. The rate of increase in the number of newlycreated jobs has not kept pace with the increase in the numbers seekingemployment. Apart from finding jobs for the existing backlog of theunemployed there is also the problem of the future additions to the labourforce. According to the labour force projections presented in Chapter VI,the labour force is expected to increase by 52 per cent in 1986 in 15 years
(1) Jones and Selvaratnam : Population Growth and Economic Development,Hansa Publishers Ltd., Colombo, 1972.
106
from 1971. It will more than double in the 30 year period 1971 to 2001even if fertility declines according to the medium assumption. More rapidincreases can be expected if fertility does not decline at all. During thedecade 1971—81, the labour force will grow at slightly over 3 per cent perannum. The net addition to the labour force will be about 150,000 perannum and unless action is taken to create adequate avenues of employmentthe problem of unemployment is likely to progressively worsen.
Economic development would also necessitate a progressive increasein the amount of capital per head of the labour force ; but rapidpopulation growth makes it a difficult goal to achieve. In order to speedup the process of economic development it is essential that a major portionof the increase in national income is utilised in productive investment.If population is growing rapidly, a substantial share of the increase in nationalincome will necessarily have to be spent on consumption, if current standardsof living are to be maintained. Also for a given rate of growth of nationalincome, per capita income will show a higher increase, the lower the rateof growth of population.
The main source of finance for capital formation is domestic savingsand a better rate of saving could be achieved mainly through a restriction ofcurrent consumption expenditure. Though foreign capital may be availablein different forms, excessive reliance on such capital is not also in the bestinterest of the country. Yet the capacity to save and the availability ofdomestic capital resources depends inter alia on the level of income in thecountry. The higher the income level, the higher the savings potential.
From a purely demographic point of view the rate of increase of thepopulation and also the ratio of employed persons to the total populationwould be crucial determinants of the level and rate of saving in the com-munity.
The dramatic and sharp decline in mortality during the post-war periodunaccompanied by any noticeable fall in the birth rate has had far-reachingeffects on the age-structure of the population. The 1971 census showedthat about 40 per cent of the population consists of children in the age-group 0—14 years. The corresponding proportion in the developed coun-tries is very low ranging from 22 to 30 per cent. Persons in the workingage, 15 to 64 years, constitute only 56 per cent of the total population in SriLanka, while in advanced countries they account for 65 per cent or more ofthe total population. Thus in Sri Lanka high levels of fertility combinedwith declining mortality has resulted in a population with a high proportionof children in the non-productive ages and a relatively smaller proportionof persons in the working ages. This type of age-structure implies thatchildhood dependency in the country is very heavy with about 72 childdependants per 100 persons in the working age whereas in the developedcountries there are only about 35 children per 100 persons of working ags.An age-structure of the type now found in Sri Lanka has certaindisadvantages from the point of view of the economic and social develop-ment of the country. In the first place since the age and sex-structure is
107
broad at the base, the cohort of young women entering the reproductive ageswould be significantly higher than those leaving it. In other words thepresent age/sex structure of the population has a built-in potential for arapid increase in population in the future.
The high proportion of dependent children increases the burden ofdependency which in turn increases spending for immediate consumption.As a result public and private saving in investment and productive activities arerestricted. Children below 15 years are economically unproductive but theyhave to be fed,clothed and educated. This increased burden on the economi-cally active sector of the population means that resources that could otherwisebe utilised for economic development have to be directed to provide varioussocial services for them. Hence the present age-structure of the populationtends to divert a large proportion of the increase in national income eachyear to social services such as health and education which may have onlyindirect and delayed effects on economic growth rather than towards moreproductive forms of investment having a more direct and immediate impacton development.
Since the attainment of Independence Sri Lanka has witnessed notonly a growth in population but also a widening of the range of socialservices and transfer payments. The government . has been influenced bystrong political pressures to provide an expanded programme of health,education and housing and other social welfare measures. Considerableprogress has been made particularly in the fields of education and health.From October 1945, education from the kindergarten to the Universitywas declared free and under this free education scheme no tuition fees arecharged in government schools, the Universities and the Technical Colleges.The government has also assumed the major responsibility for the healthand medical care of the people and established hospitals and dispensariesthroughout the country. Outdoor treatment is available at a nominalcharge of 25 cents per visit at out-patient departments of all governmenthospitals and dispensaries and in-door treatment.in non*paying wards isprovided free to all patients. Since the early fifties, the government hasbeen issuing to all persons age 1 year and over two measures of rice atsubsidised prices. This scheme has subsequently been modified to provideall persons other than income tax payers and their dependants, one measureof rica per head per week free of charge and a second measure at marketprices.
These expenditures which are linked to the size of the population com-prise a substantial part of the government budget. A rapidly increasingpopulation together with rising costs of providing most of these services hassubstantially raised the total outlay on these services. An important require-ment for the success of the five year plan was a re-orientation of governmentbudgetary policy aimed at increasing domestic savings and reducing de-pendence on foreign aid and deficit financing for the achievement of desiredinvestment levels. Accordingly government budgetary policy has beenreshaped to introduce the necessary changes in the pattern of current ex-penditure, so that there would be no substantial increase in the quantum of
108
welfare services provided by government especially in relation to foodsubsidies, education and health services. However, if population continuesto grow at the current rate, this can only lead to a lowering of present stand-ards of the welfare services which have to some extent contributed towardsraising the quality of the labour force and perhaps also to the maintenanceof political stability in the country.
The current level of expenditure on social and welfare services may beconsidered very high for a developing country. In the context of a rapidlyincreasing population and limited capital resources, a rising expenditure onsocial and welfare services for the population can be maintained only at theexpense of achieving a rapid expansion in agricultural and industrial pro-duction and the overall growth of the economy. But it is a difficult taskfor any government to enforce any significant reduction in the present levelsof social welfare services.
Hence the increase in expenditure on these services depend directly onthe population increase. It is therefore important to determine what effecta slower rate of population growth will have on government expenditureson education, health, food subsidies and other measures. For any savingsin the expenditure on the quantum of these services could be used either toimprove their quality or for investment in other productive activities.
Studies (1), (2) have recently been undertaken to measure the impactof varying rates of population growth on the costs of providing education,health, transport, food subsidies etc. These studies were based on threealternative population projections for the period 1968—1998. The pro-jections used in these studies have used assumptions with regard to mortalityand fertility trends that are roughly comparable for most of the projectionperiod to those in the projection presented in Chapter VI.
In considering the effect of alternative rates of population growth onthe cost of providing public health care, the study takes into account thefact that the rate of use of the government health services is greater at thetime of birth and infancy than at any other stage of the Life Cycle exceptold age. According to this study the population dependent on publichealth care in Ceylon which was estimated to be about 10.1 million in 1968will increase to 21.8 million in 1998 if population trends were to follow thehigh projection and to only 15.8i mllion or 5.3 million less if the rates ofpopulation growth followed the low projection. Similarly, if availabilityof health services per head is to be expanded by two thirds during the 30 yearperiod, the number of doctors required will increase by 233 per cent accord-ing to the high projections and only 146 per-cent according to the low pro-jections. Roughly the same figures apply to requirements for hospital
(1) S. Selvaratnam: Presidential address (Social Sciences Section, C. A. A. S.)Published in the Proceedings of the Twenty sixth Annual Sessions of the Ceylon Associationfor the Advancement of Science, Colombo 1971.
(2) Jones and Selvaratnam: Population Growth and Economic Development,Hansa Publishers Ltd., Colombo, 1972.
109
¡beds. Health costs would rise much less rapidly and the savings over the30 year projection period would be roughly Rs. 3,356 million or 17 times the•entire sum spent by the government on health services in 1968. It is truethat most of the savings come towards the end of the period, but duringthe first twenty years Rs. 1,198 million or six times the 1968 expenditure•will be saved, while during the first 10 years the amount saved will be Rs. 228million or more than the entire 1968 expenditure.
In the case of education, savings take a little longer to build up because•of the delay before the decline in fertility affects the number of school en-trants. But subsequently the benefits of a decline in fertility build up rapidly.The results indicate that by 1988, primary school enrolments would haveto be 70 per cent higher if fertility stays constant than if it falls rapidly ;total costs of primary and secondary education would be approximately50 per cent higher. Over the 30 year period from 1968 to 1998, the educa-tional status quo can be maintained if fertility falls rapidly at a saving ofRs. 5,882 million or 15 times the entire expenditure on education in 1968.During the first 10 years savings would approximately equal the total 1968expenditure.
The study on the impact of alternative population growth rates on thefood subsidy programme shows that the cost of the food subsidy wouldincrease much more rapidly if fertility remains constant at the 1968 level.The total savings resulting from a decline in fertility would amount to someRs. 2,700 million or slightly more than the savings resulting in the healthfield if the health status quo is maintained.
These figures show that if the current rate of population growth wereto continue, it will be necessary to spend an ever-increasing share of nationalincome just to maintain the existing levels of social services and a reductionin the proportion of the resources available for implementing any programmeof economic development. The rapid expansion in population which weare likely to experience in the future will not only tend to reduce the fundsavailable for investment. It will also mean that the capital available forinvestment in industry and agriculture will have to be spread thinly over thelabour force. In other words, the capital investment per worker will bequite low with the result that productivity will suffer and hence living stand-ards will deteriorate rather than improve. Thus, the future prospects ofan effective improvement in the standard of living of the population cannotbe visualised unless there is a significant decline in the rate of growth of thepopulation itself.
Education in Sri Lanka is free upto and including the University and•other institutions of higher education. In the field of education too a greatdeal of progress has been made and in quantitative aspects Sri Lanka has•one of the best developed educational systems in Asia. Although educationis compulsory upto grade 8, there is no enforcement and the proportion of•children in the 5—14 year age group attending school was 72.7 per cent in1971. The proportion among boys was slightly higher with 74.6 per centas compared wth 70.8 per cent for girls. Even this could be considereda. remarkable achievement for a developing country.
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Expenditure on education is in the region of 4—5 per cent of the G.N.P.and is higher than in most developing countries.
According to the population projections given in Chapter VI the schoolage (5—14) population will increase from 3.25 million in 1971 to 5.39 millionin 2001, if there is no substantial reduction in fertility (High Projection).The net addition to the school age population will be 2.14 million. If onthe other hand fertility declines even gradually as assumed in the mediumprojection the net addition to the school age population will be only 0.71million or a third of the addition under the high projection.
Therefore, in the absence of a fertility decline and on the assumptionthat the proportion of children aged 5—14 who will be attending schooldoes not increase very much further, the expenditure on education willhave to increase annually in order to provide schools, teachers andequipment for the additional children seeking admission to schools. If fertilitywere to decline even gradually there would be considerable savings in theadditional expenditure required. This saving could be utilised for im-proving the quality of education or other urgent development efforts.
Rapid population growth will also have a tremendous impact on thehousing situation in Sri Lanka. The situation is further aggravated by thefact that apart from the need to provide housing for the increasing populationthere is the question of clearing the existing backlog of inadequate or un-satisfactory houses.
The results of the 1971 Census of Housing show that the growth of thehousing stock between 1963 and 1971 has fallen behind the growth of popu-lation. While population increased by 20.1 per cent the housing stockincreased by only 12.1 per cent.
It has also been estimated that of the total housing stock of 2.217million housing units about 600,000 units or a little more than quarter ofthe total stock need relpacement. 800,000 units were found to be over-crowded in terms of number of persons per room or average floor area perperson, while approximately 250,000 units accommodated more than onefamily.
Even if an allowance is made for overlapping of the above categoriesit is clear that the accumulated housing shortage has assumed such dimen-sions that investment on a large scale will be required to reduce the presentdeficit to any significant extent.
In addition to this, it would be necessary to provide additional housingfor the increasing population. The increase in population during the 5 yearperiod 1971—76 will be 1,521,000 or 304,000 persons annually. On the basisof an average occupancy rate of 5.6 per housing unit the annual require-ments of housing units for the additional population will be 54,000. Thedemand for housing is directly related to the size and composition of the
I l l
population. With rapid population growth the problem of clearing thepresent deficit and constructing new units for the additions to the populationand of also providing for replacement will be a dificult task.
The government has therefore given priority to housing in its Five YearPlan not only on the grounds of social justice but also because of its import-ance in promoting employment and economic development. The plannedtarget of 3.5 per cent of GNP on housing investment of course would nodoubt lead to easing off in the housing situation but the problem wouldcontinue for a much longer period if population continues to increase atthe current rate.
Sri Lanka is fortunate in that urbanisation has not proceeded at therapid pace it seems to have in some of the other developing countries. Infact, as pointed out earlier, the rate of growth of the population within theareas delimited as urban at the 1963 census has been lower than the rate ofgrowth of the rural population. The increase in the proportion urban from19 per cent in 1963 to 22.4 per cent in 1971 was due to creation of new urbanand town councils. Even in the case of Colombo the principal urbancentre, the population increase from 1963 to 1973 has been only 9.9 per centcompared to the island's population increase of 20.1 per cent during thesame period. On the other hand the urban suburbs of Colombo City havegrown much more rapidly.
The most plausible explanation for the slow growth of the urban popula-tion is the fact that Sri Lanka is a small country with a fairly good transportsystem which brings even the remotest rural area within a few hours' journeyfrom the principal town with each district. Even Colombo City is onlyabout a half day's journey from the remotest corner of the island. Hencein spite of the growing unemployment, the need to flock to urban centresand remain there in order to seek employment which seems to be the causeof rural-urban migration in other developing countries, has not reachedsignificant proportions in Sri Lanka.
D. POPULATION POLICY
The preceding discussion clearly shows that a slower population growthbrought about by a decline in fertility would have an important and favou-rable effect on socio-economic development. The need for moderating therate of population growth has long been recognised in Sri Lanka.
The Ten Year Plan (1959—1968) recognised the significant role ofpopulation growth in the development effort of the country. It stated " Itis clear that unless there is some prospect of a slowing down in the rate ofpopulation growth and of relative stability in at least the long run it isdifficult to envisage substantial benefits from planning and development.It is not so much the size of the population in an absolute sense but ratherthe rate of increase that tends to frustrate attempts to step up the rate ofinvestment and to increase incomes psr head. Apart from the difficultprocess of cutting present levels of consumption, the source for increasing
112
the volume of investment is the " ploughing back " of portions of futureincreases in incomes. This task is handicapped if these increases haveinstead to be devoted each year to sustaining a larger population. Obvious-ly, the impact on future investment and per capita income of a nationalincome which is rising annually by say 5 to 6 per cent would substantiallybe different if population growth was 1 per cent instead of 3 per cent. Otherdeveloping countries experiencing similar and often a less serious populationgrowth have already recognised this and have included " population policies"as part of their planning goals. These policies are not alternatives to vigor-ous attempts at development. On the contrary their purpose is merely toensure that the fruits of these attempts are realised ".
The principle implicit in the above statement, dominated the thinking.in the population field for several years, and although a modest beginning,was made in the field of family planning by the Family Planning Associationof Ceylon in 1953, government support to this activity was limited to a smallgrant and permission to use the facilities available in the Department ofHealth Services for some specified purposes.
In 1958, the activities of the Family Planning Association were intensi-fied, the government grant was increased to Rs. 75,000 and an agreementwas signed by the government with the Swedish International DevelopmentAuthority to undertake a pilot project in the field of family planning. Theobjective of the project was to investigate attitudes to family planning, giveinstructions in family planning methods and assist in training Ceylonesepublic health staff in this work.
In 1965, famly planning was accepted by the government as a nationalprogramme and it became an integral part of the maternal and child health,services provided by the government. Shortly afterwards, an AdvisoryCommittee was set up in the Ministry of Health to prepare a national pro-gramme and advise on the speedy implementation of the programme. TheNational Family Planning Programme which was prepared as a result ofthe work of this committee aimed at a gradual reduction in the birth ratefrom 33 in 1966 to 25 in 1975.
The government's policy in this field was strengthened and clarified in1970. It was then emphasized that while family planning cannot be con-sidered to be the solution for the economic problems facing the country,,facilities should be made available for parents to make use of advice givenin maternal and child health and welfare centres and these facilities shouldbe intensified to reach parents in rural areas as well as in estates.
In 1971, at the request of the government, an Inter-Agency Mission ofthe United Nations visted the country to make a comprehensive review ofthe National Family Planning Programme, particularly its overall organisa-tion and policy, implementation and evaluation, and research programme.The Mission made several far-reaching recommendations most of whichwere accepted by the government and are being implemented.
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The recent Five Year Plan (1972—-1976) gives very high priority to thediffusion of family planning facilities amongst the mass of the adult popula-tion. The Plan states " the continued growth of population at the presenthigh rates will pose problems which would defy every attempt at solution.In the short-term, any further increase of the number of births from thepresent level of around 370,000 per annum will place inordinate strains onthe school system, on hospitals, and the supply of other goods and services,and in such a situation, it is only by a shift of investment from productiveactivities that it would be possible to maintain these services even at presentlevels. In the long-run, the expansion of population at present rates wouldresult in a population of about 27 million by the year 2000. The strain onresources imposed by the present rate of population growth would be almostintolerable ".
In order to support the Government's objectives of providing familyplanning facilities to all sections of the population, an agreement was signedwith the United Nations Fund for Population Activities for assistance overa period of four years from January 1973 to cov r several important fieldsof activity through a network of eleven projects. Among the significantelements of this agreement are assistance for the establishment of a Demo-graphic Training and Research Unit in the University of Sri Lanka, provisionfor family health and population education to strategic groups in the urban,rural and estate sectors, dissemination of information on population, familyplanning and family health to government personnel who would have amultiplier effect viz., teachers, medical personnel, labour officials, and tonon-government personnel viz. empoyers, trade unions officials, workers'representatives, voluntary workers, motivators and educators etc.
The evolution of an active population policy in Sri Lanka has beenthe result of a serious and continuing concern over population problems overthe years. It has been recognised that the adoption of policies and pro-grammes to bring about a reduction in the birth rate is the only satisfactoryway of moderating the rate of population growth, and these policies andprogrammes must find a place in an integrated strategy for providing healthcare facilities. The well-developed net work of these facilities, moreoverprovides an organisational framework within which family planning servicescan be easily and speedily included. A recent analysis of data receivedfrom the maternal and child health clinics from the various parts of thecountry shows that there is a high rate of response from the people to thesefacilities and services and the programme is making appreciable progress.
APPENDIX
1. SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
The main sources of demographic information for the country are theperiodical censuses commencing from 1871 and the annual vital statisticsof births, deaths and marriages compiled and published by the RegistrarGeneral.
The first national census of population covering the entire countrywas taken in 1871. Since then there were regular censuses at intervals often years in 1881, 1891, 1901, 1911, 1921. A Census was taken in 1931 but inview of the prevailing depression at the time its scope was limited to a de-tailed enumeration in the City of Colombo and a head count only in the restof the island. The Second World War caused the census due in 1941 tobe taken five years later in 1946. The irregularity in the time interval bet-ween censuses continued and the subsequent censuses were taken in 1953,1963 and 1971. The year 1971 was deliberately chosen for the last censuswith a view to restoring the earlier national practice of taking the censusin the year ending in one which also is in keeping with the U.N. recommen-dations suggesting that population censuses be taken in the year ending inzero or one.
The system of continuous registration of births, deaths and marriagescommenced in 1867 with the creation of the Department of the RegistrarGeneral who was charged with the function of superintending and super-vising the registration of births, deaths and marriages occurring in the Island.In the earlier years however the reliability of the statistics are questionablebecause registration of births and deaths was not made compulsory until1895.
The statistics of births and deaths derived from the registration systemhave however improved in accuracy and coverage with time. A survey(l)carried out in 1953 to assess the coverage of the registration of births anddeaths showed that birth registration was 88.1 per cent complete while deathregistration was 88.6 per cent complete. A similar survey(2) carried out in1967 showed that birth and death registration were complete to the extentof 98.7 per cent and 94.5 per cent, respectively.
(1) " Post enumeration Survey, 1953 ", Department of Census & Statistics.
(2) " A Study of the extent of under-registration of births and deaths in Ceylon "Department of Census & Statistics, Colombo. 1970.
115
TABLE 1. BIRTHS- DEATHS- CRUDE BIRTH RATES- ANDCRUDE DEATH RATES—ANNUAL FIGURES AND
AVERAGES FOR INTER -CENSAL PERIODS 1921—1970
1921—1930
Year
1921192219231924192519261927192819291930
Total
Births
183,917179,856181,437178,867193,261206,888205,469213,308198,005205,107
1,946,115
Crude BirthRates
40.639.138.737.539.942.041.041.938.339.1
Mean 39.8
Deaths
140,749126,820141,891122,958117,543124,884113,003132,334135,274133,709
1,289,165
Crude DeathRates
31.127.530.325.824.225.322.626.026.225.5
Mean 26.5
1931—1945
Year
193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945
Total
Births
199,170199,370209,032206,512192,755192,060216,072208,389212,111212,980219,864221,064242,820232,827238,494
2,038,792
Crude BirthRates
37.437.038.637.234.434.137.835.936.035.836.536.740.637.135.9
Mean 39.0
Deaths
117,452110,649114,690127,069204.823123,039124,210122,299128,611122,738113,003112,044131,061133,985142,931
1,928,604
Crude DeathRates
22.120.521.222.936.621.821.721.021.820.618.818.621.421.321.5
Mean 22.1
116
1946—1952
Year
1946194719481949195019511952
Total
Births
256,886271,191287,695291,191304,635313,662313,532
2,038,792
Crude BirthRates
37.438.639.739.139.739.838.8
Mean 39.0
Deaths
135,93798,54493,71191,88995,142
100.07295,298
710,593
Crude DeathRates
19.814.013.012.412.412.711.8
Mean 13.7
1953—1962
Year
1953195419551956195719581959196019611962
Total
Births
321,217303,894325,538325,067334,135335,690356,336361,702363,677370,762
3,398,018
Crude BirthRates
38.735.737.336.436.535.837.036.635.835.5
Mean 36.5
Deaths
89,00386,79494,36887,56192,75990,81587,97184,91881,653S8,928
884,770
Crude DeathRates
10.710.211.89.8
10.19.79.18.68.08.5
Mean 9.7
1963—1970
Year
19631964196519661967196819691970
Total
Births
365,842361,577369,437369,153369,531384,178372,774368,262
2,960,754
Crude BirthRates
34.133.233.132.331.632.030.429.4
Mean 32.0
Deaths
91,67395,61891,72894,41987,87794,903
102,35694,129
752,693
Crude DeathRates
8.58.88.28.37.57.98.37.5
Mean 8.1
117
1971—1973
Year
197119721973
Births
382,480384,066366,186
Crudo BirthRates
30.129.727.8
Deaths
97,374104,080100,850
Crude DeathR.ates
7.78.07.7
TABLE II. INTERCENSAL INCREASE OF THE POPULATION OF
ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS-1963—1971
District
SRI LANKA(AH Districts)
ColomboKalutaraKandyMátaleNuwara EliyaGalleMataraHambantotaJaffnaMannarVavuniyaBatticaloaAmparaiTrincomalee 'KurunegálaPuttalamAnuradhapuraPolonnaruwaBadullaMoneragalaRatn apuraKegalle
POPULATION
1963 Census
10,582,0642,207,420
631,4571,043,632
255,630397,756641,474514,969274,297612,59660,12468,621
196,189211,732138,553852,661302,546279,788113,971521,845132,260546,037578,506
1971 Census
12,711,1432,672,620
731,3241,187,170
316,342453,243737,451588,254341,005704,35077,88295,536
258,104272,790191,989
1,028,107379,787389,207163,858616,315191,505661,710652,094
INTERCENSAL INCREASE
Number
2,129,079465,200100,367143,53860,71255,48795,97773,28566,70891,75417,75826,91561,91561,05853,436
175,44677,241
109,41949,88794,47059.245
115Í67373,588
Per cent
20.121.115.913.823.714.015.014.224.315.029.539.231.628.838.620.625.539.143.818.144.821.212.7
118
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125
TABLE VIH. POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SRI LANKA—1971—2001
HIGH, MEDIUM & LOW PROJECTIONS—BOTH SEXES
Age and Type
Projection
HAll Ages M
L
H0—4 M
L
H5—9 M
L
H10—14 M
L
H15—19 M
L
H20—24 M
L
H25—29 M
L
30—3435—3940—4445—4950—5455—5960—6465—6970—7475 & over
Projected population of Both Sexes in thousands as at mid-year
1971
12,762
1,752
1,684
1,571
1,415
1,183
990
781652607525430351283215162159
1976
14,28314,28314,208
1,8921,8921,814
1,717
1,675
1,564
1,403
1,171
980772641594510412328250173198
1981
15,96015,82615,339
2,0881,9541,544
1,8541,8541,781
1,709
1,668
1,553
1,391
1,161968760629578489387292203228
1986
17,88517,35716,244
2,3841,9891,353
2,0501,9201,516
1,8471,8471,772
1,702
1,657
1,540
1,3781,148
955746612555460345237266
1991
20,00918,86817,245
2,6362,0141,492
2,3431,9551,329
2,0411,9111,509
1,8411,8411,765
1,692
1,645
1,5281,3651,133
939728589523412282314
1996
22,29120,33818,313
2,8512,0281,592
2,5941,9821,468
2,3331,9491,343
2,0351,9051,504
1,8301,8301,757
1,680
1,6331,5141,3481,114
916702558470339374
2001
24,73021,78619,315
3,0732,0661,628
2,8081,9971,568
2,5851,9751,463
2,3271,9421,320
2,0251,8971,499
1,8181,8181,745
1,6691,6191,4971,3271,089
886666502388450
Note 1. H—High Projection, M—Medium Projection, L—Low Projection.
Note 2. When the figure is the same under all three projections this commonfigure is entered against M.
Note 3. For the age group 30—34 and higher age groups the figures are thesame under all three projections.
126
TABLE VIII. POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SRI LANKA—1971—2001
HIGH, MEDIUM & LOW PROJECTIONS—MALES
Age and Tyof Project«
All Ages
0—4
5—9
10—14
15—19
20—2420—24
25—29
30—34
40-4445—4950—5455—5960—6465—6970—7475 & over
pe
HML
HML
HML
HML
HMLHML
HML
Projected Male
1971
6,523
888
852
799
717
586
588
3923333182802301901571209181
1976
7,2757,2757,237
960960920
871
847
795
710
580
48338732731027021917613795
106
Population in
1986
8,1048,0367,788
1,059991783
941941904
867
843
789
704
575477381320300257204155109122
1991
9,0558,7878,223
1,2091,008
686
1,040974769
938938899
863
837
782
697568470372309286240180124141
thousands
1996
10,1059,5278,704
1,3351,020
756
1,188991674
1,035969765
934934895
857
830
775690560460361295267213144162
as at mi
1996
11,23310,2449,228
1,4441,027
806
1,3141,004
744
1,182987691
1,031965762927'927890
850
824767680548446345277237172189
i-year
2001
12,43910,9489,697
1,5561,046
824
1,4221,011
794
1,3091,000
741
1,178983669
1,025960759
920920883
844816757667532427324246192223
127
TABLE VIH. — POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SRI LANKA—1971—2001
HIGH, MEDIUM & LOW PROJECTIONS—FEMALES
Age and TypeVL
Projection
HAll Ages M
L
H0 - 4 M
L
H5—9 M
L
10—14 HML
H15—19 M
L
H20—24 M
L
26—29 HML
30—3435—3940-^445—49 -50—5455—5960—6465—6970—7475 & over
Projected Female Population in thousands
1971
6,239
864
832
772
698
597
502
389319289245200161126957178
1976
7,0087,0086,971
932932894
846
828
769
693
591
4973853142842401931521137892
1981
•
7,8567,7907,551
1,029963761
913913877
842
825
764
687
58649137930927823218313793
106
1986
8,8308,5708,021
1,175981667
1,010946747
909909873
839
820
758
681580485374303269220165113125
1991
9,9049,3418,541
1,301994736
1,155964655
1,006942744
907907870
835
815
753675573479367294256199138152
at mid-year
1996
11,05810,0949,085
1,4071,001
786
1,280978724
1,151961652
1,004940742
903903867
830
809747668566470357281233167185
2001
12,29110,8389,618
1,5171,020
804
1,386986774
1,276975
. 722
1,149959651
1,000937740
898898862
825803740660557
" 459342256196227
J28
TABLE IX. PROJECTED LABOUR FORCE BY SEX AND AGE, 1971—2001
(FIGURES IN THOUSANDS)
Age and Sex
Males Total10—1418—1920—2428—2930—3435—3940—4445—4950—5455—5960—64
65 & overFemales Total
10—1418—1920—2425—2930—3435—3940-^t445—4950—5455—5960—64
65 & overTotal of Males andFemales
1971
3,26550
348523473384324308268212153103119
1,16932
184252197136104897349271312
4,434
1974
3,77651
386633563472377317297249177116138
1,39634
209308244173126978559321615
5,172
1981
4,32149
410704682562464369306277208133157
1,63334
2313552962041601179268391917
5,954
1986
4,87551
419747758682553454357286231158181
1,86936
24239934123718915011274452321
6,744
1991
5,44049
453765805758671542440333239175211
2,10438
26842438126222017714390492725
7,544
1996
6,01747
469827824806747658525411279182243
2,34238
286479405282243206169115603030
8,359
2001
6,57845
477856892826794733638491345213269
2,56738
289516456287262229197137773635
9,145
r
