the past, present, and future of the new markets tax
TRANSCRIPT
PowerPoint PresentationThe Past, Present, and Future of the New
Markets Tax Credit Program
#LiveAtUrban
Housekeeping
• Event is being recorded and the recording will be posted online afterward.
• Hide captions or adjust settings with the Live Transcript button.
• All participants are muted.
• Type your questions or comments into the Q&A box at any time.
#LiveAtUrban
Examining the New Markets Tax Credit Program
Brett Theodos, Christina Stacy, Daniel Teles, Chris Davis, and Ananya Hariharan
1: How Has the New Markets Tax Credit Program Been Funded Over Time?
5
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
8
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
9
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
10
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
$ )
2: What Types of Projects Receive New Markets Tax Credit Funding?
12
Manufacturing, Retail, Health, and Schools get the biggest shares of NMTC financing
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
$0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0
Manufacturing and food processing
Transport, warehouse, and wholesale
Investments in CDEs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Investments in CDEs
Average percent of total financing represented by QLICIs
13
Services, Affordable housing, School depend more on NMTCs
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Investments in CDEs
Average percent of total financing represented by QLICIs
14
Services, Affordable housing, School depend more on NMTCs
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
3: Where Do New Markets Tax Credit Projects Go?
16
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most tracts that receive a project got 1 or 2, but a small share got appreciably more
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
17
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most tracts that receive a project got 1 or 2, but a small share got appreciably more
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
18
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most NMTC funding went to tracts with 1 or 2 programs, but a small share of tracts got appreciably more projects
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Percent of NMTC investment by number of projects per tract
19
DC, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Maine, and Wisconsin get the most total investment per population in eligible tracts (2001-17)
Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, Guam, and Puerto Rico get the least
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
20
DC, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Maine, and Wisconsin get the most total investment per population in eligible tracts (2001-17)
Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, Guam, and Puerto Rico get the least
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
21
Large counties do the best per capita at accessing funds, 2001-17
Population of county
% of QLICI investment
50,000 to 99,999 10% 7% 6% 5%
100,000 to 299,999 18% 12% 12% 11%
300,000+ 54% 67% 69% 71%
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
22
NMTC projects more likely to locate in higher job, but lower income tracts
Variable Received NMTC
Population in Tract 3,737 3,832
Percent Black 29% 19%
Percent Hispanic 18% 17%
Percent Asian 5% 4%
Percent White 45% 58%
Number of Residents with Jobs 1,341 1,489
Median Household Income $41,001 $50,139
Percent in Poverty 26% 19%
Percent homeowners 39% 51%
Number of Jobs in Tract 3,890 1,525
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
23
Average poverty level for NMTC tracts initially increased, but has dipped
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Average Poverty Level in Neighborhoods That Received NMTC Projects over Time
24
Average neighborhood income for tracts getting NMTC projects steady over time
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Average Median Family Income in Neighborhoods That Received NMTC Projects
4: Which Community Development Entities Receive New Markets Tax Credit Funding?
26
The average allocation is $55M
C D E S
Allocations
CDE
The average allocation is $55M
C D E S
Allocations
CDE
Most NMTC allocations to CDFI and other mission lenders (2001-2019)
C D E S
Nonprofit Non-financial
For-profit Non-financial
Government & Quasi-governmental
For-profit Financial
CDFI & Mission
29
Most NMTC allocations to CDFI and other mission lenders (2001-2019)
C D E S
Nonprofit Non-financial
For-profit Non-financial
Government & Quasi-governmental
For-profit Financial
CDFI & Mission
30
Shrinking role for for- profit financial and for- profit non-financial
C D E S
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year
Share of total award amount for CDFI and other mission lenders
31
Shrinking role for for- profit financial and for- profit non-financial
C D E S
CDFI or Other Mission Lender For-Profit Financial Government or Quasi-Government For-Profit Non-Financial Non-Profit Non-Financial
Year
Share of total award amount
5: The Impact of the New Markets Tax Credit Program on Firms, Jobs, and Poverty
33
Firms Jobs in
Estimated Effect per NMTC Project 17.7*** 101.4** 26.6*** 561.5*** -0.65***
(3.1) (40.7) (5.1) (146.8) (0.099)
Estimated Effect of $1 million Investment 1.7*** 6.9** 2.5*** 55.3*** -0.044***
(0.3) (3.2) (0.5) (14.5) (0.0092)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
34
Business Growth Before and After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 F
ir m
Job Growth After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
J o
b s
Number of Residents with Jobs Before and After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
R e s id
Estimated effects on population, education, and turnover
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
Population
Estimated Effect per NMTC
Project 36.9*** 40.6*** 0.40***
Investment 3.26** 3.73*** 0.016
Estimated effects by project type: firms, jobs, income, and poverty
Firms Jobs Residents with Jobs Median Income Poverty Rate (out of 100)
Retail 5.2 168.3** 21.4* 1139.2*** -0.53*
(4.9) (79.8) (12.9) (364.2) (0.27)
Manufacturing and Food Processing 5.5 23.7 -27.6* -512.6 0.091
(4.2) (105.6) (15.2) (359.7) (0.34)
Office and professional services 28.6*** 40.2 29.2* 489.0 -0.47
(8.1) (163.6) (16.1) (448.7) (0.40)
Healthcare Services 25.6*** 192.5 -16.9 -789.8* -0.29
(8.3) (142.4) (19.9) (428.4) (0.36)
Schools and Childcare 5.0 210.6 57.3*** 1531.6*** -1.81***
(4.9) (176.5) (16.9) (581.5) (0.40)
Community Facilities 7.2 107.3 80.5*** 2222.1*** -1.15**
(8.4) (192.2) (23.5) (817.6) (0.53)
Services for Vulnerable Populations 22.3*** 25.2 43.1 -279.3 -0.72
(7.8) (186.3) (26.8) (533.7) (0.47)
Market Rate Residential -18.5 -286.3* 17.2 1160.8*** -0.77**
(13.5) (158.3) (19.3) (450.5) (0.39)
Hotels 56.2** -11.4 55.1* 2074.6** -1.15*
(22.9) (297.2) (30.9) (929.2) (0.69)
Transportation and Warehousing 11.8* 144.0 43.0 -675.8 -0.25
(6.9) (161.3) (47.4) (570.8) (0.62)
Affordable Residential 11.7 -262.5 17.8 17.2 -0.27
(16.3) (225.1) (47.2) (963.3) (0.87)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
39
Population Population with a bachelor's
degree Turnover Rate
(out of 100)
(26.5) (12.1) (0.25)
(30.8) (14.6) (0.28)
(30.0) (14.6) (0.33)
(38.2) (20.3) (0.31)
(48.7) (31.7) (0.40)
(49.3) (23.4) (0.41)
(26.5) (21.5) (0.47)
(80.4) (25.5) (0.57)
(87.5) (28.2) (0.63)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
6: The Impact of the New Markets Tax Credit Program on Local Housing Markets
41
Estimated Impact of NMTC Projects on Property Values and Mortgages
Sales Price (Change in Logged
Value) Number of Mortgages
Value)
Within 1 mile Within Census Tract Effect of NMTC Projects with Positive Expected Impact 0.024*** 1.95*** 0.026***
(0.0004) (0.59) (0.0052)
Total QLICI of Projects with Positive Expected Impact (in Millions of 2019 Dollars) 0.002*** 0.11*** 0.001***
(0.00002) (0.04) (0.0004)
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
42
Average Growth in Number of New Mortgages Before and After NMTC investments
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Years before or after NMTC project
Change in number of new mortgages
43
Average Growth in Average Value of New Mortgages Before and After NMTC Investments
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Years Before or After NMTC Project
Change in Average Logged Mortgage Value (Approximates Percent Change)
44
Change in Property Value by Distance from NMTC Projects with Expected Increase in Property Values
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Distance from NMTC Project (Miles)
Change in Logged Sales Price (Approximates Percent Change)
45
Change in Property Value by Distance from NMTC Projects with Expected Decrease in Property Values
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Distance from NMTC Project (Miles)
Change in Logged Sales Price (Approximates Percent Change)
46
Estimated effects on property values within 1 mile and mortgages in the same tract by project type
Sales Price (Change in Logged
Value)
(0.002) (1.14) (0.018)
(0.002) (2.37) (0.015)
(0.002) (1.38) (0.016)
(0.001) (1.91) (0.018)
(0.002) (1.81) (0.019)
(0.002) (3.13) (0.023)
(0.002) (1.63) (0.016)
(0.005) (5.51) (0.032)
(0.004) (4.46) (0.043)
(0.006) (3.70) (0.034)
(0.020) (3.36) (0.029)
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
The Past, Present, and Future of the New Markets Tax Credit Program
#LiveAtUrban
#LiveAtUrban
Housekeeping
• Event is being recorded and the recording will be posted online afterward.
• Hide captions or adjust settings with the Live Transcript button.
• All participants are muted.
• Type your questions or comments into the Q&A box at any time.
#LiveAtUrban
Examining the New Markets Tax Credit Program
Brett Theodos, Christina Stacy, Daniel Teles, Chris Davis, and Ananya Hariharan
1: How Has the New Markets Tax Credit Program Been Funded Over Time?
5
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
$37 billion in estimated tax expenditures approved through 2025
$12 billion had already been claimed by investors through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
Dollar value of NMTC allocation authority to CDEs Estimated present value of tax expenditures Dollar value of tax credits claimed by investors
B il
li o
n s
(i n
2 0
1 9
8
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
9
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
10
$55 billion in NMTC qualified investments into nonprofits and businesses through 2017
Average per project QLICI is $8.5 million
$52 billion in “leveraged” funds through 2017
N M T C P R O G R A M F U N D I N G
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLICI Leveraged investment
$ )
2: What Types of Projects Receive New Markets Tax Credit Funding?
12
Manufacturing, Retail, Health, and Schools get the biggest shares of NMTC financing
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
$0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0
Manufacturing and food processing
Transport, warehouse, and wholesale
Investments in CDEs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Investments in CDEs
Average percent of total financing represented by QLICIs
13
Services, Affordable housing, School depend more on NMTCs
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Investments in CDEs
Average percent of total financing represented by QLICIs
14
Services, Affordable housing, School depend more on NMTCs
N M T C P R O J E C T T Y P E S
3: Where Do New Markets Tax Credit Projects Go?
16
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most tracts that receive a project got 1 or 2, but a small share got appreciably more
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
17
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most tracts that receive a project got 1 or 2, but a small share got appreciably more
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
18
Of 74,321 census tracts, more than half (38,063) were ever eligible for NMTC funding
5,746 NMTC projects in 3,654 census tracts (2001- 17)
Most NMTC funding went to tracts with 1 or 2 programs, but a small share of tracts got appreciably more projects
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Percent of NMTC investment by number of projects per tract
19
DC, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Maine, and Wisconsin get the most total investment per population in eligible tracts (2001-17)
Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, Guam, and Puerto Rico get the least
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
20
DC, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Maine, and Wisconsin get the most total investment per population in eligible tracts (2001-17)
Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, Guam, and Puerto Rico get the least
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
21
Large counties do the best per capita at accessing funds, 2001-17
Population of county
% of QLICI investment
50,000 to 99,999 10% 7% 6% 5%
100,000 to 299,999 18% 12% 12% 11%
300,000+ 54% 67% 69% 71%
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
22
NMTC projects more likely to locate in higher job, but lower income tracts
Variable Received NMTC
Population in Tract 3,737 3,832
Percent Black 29% 19%
Percent Hispanic 18% 17%
Percent Asian 5% 4%
Percent White 45% 58%
Number of Residents with Jobs 1,341 1,489
Median Household Income $41,001 $50,139
Percent in Poverty 26% 19%
Percent homeowners 39% 51%
Number of Jobs in Tract 3,890 1,525
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
23
Average poverty level for NMTC tracts initially increased, but has dipped
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Average Poverty Level in Neighborhoods That Received NMTC Projects over Time
24
Average neighborhood income for tracts getting NMTC projects steady over time
N M T C P R O J E C T L O C A T I O N S
Average Median Family Income in Neighborhoods That Received NMTC Projects
4: Which Community Development Entities Receive New Markets Tax Credit Funding?
26
The average allocation is $55M
C D E S
Allocations
CDE
The average allocation is $55M
C D E S
Allocations
CDE
Most NMTC allocations to CDFI and other mission lenders (2001-2019)
C D E S
Nonprofit Non-financial
For-profit Non-financial
Government & Quasi-governmental
For-profit Financial
CDFI & Mission
29
Most NMTC allocations to CDFI and other mission lenders (2001-2019)
C D E S
Nonprofit Non-financial
For-profit Non-financial
Government & Quasi-governmental
For-profit Financial
CDFI & Mission
30
Shrinking role for for- profit financial and for- profit non-financial
C D E S
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year
Share of total award amount for CDFI and other mission lenders
31
Shrinking role for for- profit financial and for- profit non-financial
C D E S
CDFI or Other Mission Lender For-Profit Financial Government or Quasi-Government For-Profit Non-Financial Non-Profit Non-Financial
Year
Share of total award amount
5: The Impact of the New Markets Tax Credit Program on Firms, Jobs, and Poverty
33
Firms Jobs in
Estimated Effect per NMTC Project 17.7*** 101.4** 26.6*** 561.5*** -0.65***
(3.1) (40.7) (5.1) (146.8) (0.099)
Estimated Effect of $1 million Investment 1.7*** 6.9** 2.5*** 55.3*** -0.044***
(0.3) (3.2) (0.5) (14.5) (0.0092)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
34
Business Growth Before and After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 F
ir m
Job Growth After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
J o
b s
Number of Residents with Jobs Before and After NMTC investment
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
R e s id
Estimated effects on population, education, and turnover
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
Population
Estimated Effect per NMTC
Project 36.9*** 40.6*** 0.40***
Investment 3.26** 3.73*** 0.016
Estimated effects by project type: firms, jobs, income, and poverty
Firms Jobs Residents with Jobs Median Income Poverty Rate (out of 100)
Retail 5.2 168.3** 21.4* 1139.2*** -0.53*
(4.9) (79.8) (12.9) (364.2) (0.27)
Manufacturing and Food Processing 5.5 23.7 -27.6* -512.6 0.091
(4.2) (105.6) (15.2) (359.7) (0.34)
Office and professional services 28.6*** 40.2 29.2* 489.0 -0.47
(8.1) (163.6) (16.1) (448.7) (0.40)
Healthcare Services 25.6*** 192.5 -16.9 -789.8* -0.29
(8.3) (142.4) (19.9) (428.4) (0.36)
Schools and Childcare 5.0 210.6 57.3*** 1531.6*** -1.81***
(4.9) (176.5) (16.9) (581.5) (0.40)
Community Facilities 7.2 107.3 80.5*** 2222.1*** -1.15**
(8.4) (192.2) (23.5) (817.6) (0.53)
Services for Vulnerable Populations 22.3*** 25.2 43.1 -279.3 -0.72
(7.8) (186.3) (26.8) (533.7) (0.47)
Market Rate Residential -18.5 -286.3* 17.2 1160.8*** -0.77**
(13.5) (158.3) (19.3) (450.5) (0.39)
Hotels 56.2** -11.4 55.1* 2074.6** -1.15*
(22.9) (297.2) (30.9) (929.2) (0.69)
Transportation and Warehousing 11.8* 144.0 43.0 -675.8 -0.25
(6.9) (161.3) (47.4) (570.8) (0.62)
Affordable Residential 11.7 -262.5 17.8 17.2 -0.27
(16.3) (225.1) (47.2) (963.3) (0.87)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
39
Population Population with a bachelor's
degree Turnover Rate
(out of 100)
(26.5) (12.1) (0.25)
(30.8) (14.6) (0.28)
(30.0) (14.6) (0.33)
(38.2) (20.3) (0.31)
(48.7) (31.7) (0.40)
(49.3) (23.4) (0.41)
(26.5) (21.5) (0.47)
(80.4) (25.5) (0.57)
(87.5) (28.2) (0.63)
N M T C J O B & P O V E R T Y I M P A C T
6: The Impact of the New Markets Tax Credit Program on Local Housing Markets
41
Estimated Impact of NMTC Projects on Property Values and Mortgages
Sales Price (Change in Logged
Value) Number of Mortgages
Value)
Within 1 mile Within Census Tract Effect of NMTC Projects with Positive Expected Impact 0.024*** 1.95*** 0.026***
(0.0004) (0.59) (0.0052)
Total QLICI of Projects with Positive Expected Impact (in Millions of 2019 Dollars) 0.002*** 0.11*** 0.001***
(0.00002) (0.04) (0.0004)
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
42
Average Growth in Number of New Mortgages Before and After NMTC investments
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Years before or after NMTC project
Change in number of new mortgages
43
Average Growth in Average Value of New Mortgages Before and After NMTC Investments
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
Years Before or After NMTC Project
Change in Average Logged Mortgage Value (Approximates Percent Change)
44
Change in Property Value by Distance from NMTC Projects with Expected Increase in Property Values
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Distance from NMTC Project (Miles)
Change in Logged Sales Price (Approximates Percent Change)
45
Change in Property Value by Distance from NMTC Projects with Expected Decrease in Property Values
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Distance from NMTC Project (Miles)
Change in Logged Sales Price (Approximates Percent Change)
46
Estimated effects on property values within 1 mile and mortgages in the same tract by project type
Sales Price (Change in Logged
Value)
(0.002) (1.14) (0.018)
(0.002) (2.37) (0.015)
(0.002) (1.38) (0.016)
(0.001) (1.91) (0.018)
(0.002) (1.81) (0.019)
(0.002) (3.13) (0.023)
(0.002) (1.63) (0.016)
(0.005) (5.51) (0.032)
(0.004) (4.46) (0.043)
(0.006) (3.70) (0.034)
(0.020) (3.36) (0.029)
N M T C H O U S I N G M A R K E T I M P A C T
The Past, Present, and Future of the New Markets Tax Credit Program
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