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TRANSCRIPT
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Nick Jones Presentation to JGCRI April 17, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demand sectors
20 fuel types
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2020 2040
Population Billion
OECD
Rest of World
China
India
Energy Drivers – Population & Households
Africa
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2020 2040
Households Billion
OECD
Rest of World
China
India
Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2000 2020 2040
Urbanization* % Population
OECD
China
India
Africa
* Source: United Nations ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2020 2040
Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Saved ~500
2010-2040 AAGR % World 1.0%
0
25
50
75
100
125
2000 2020 2040
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Trillion 2005$
China
United States
2010-2040 AAGR %
5.6%
2.3%
1.8% Other OECD
Other Non
OECD
3.9% World 2.8%
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
2040
~ 20 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
< 10 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
CO2 Policies
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Global Energy Demand
Total Demand Quadrillion BTUs
Gas By Sector BCFD
Electricity Generation
Industrial
Res/Comm
Transportation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Other Renewables
0
2
4
6
8
10
AP NA LA ME EU RC AF
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Gas Into Transportation By Sector BCFD
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
2040 by Region BCFD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
4
8
12
16
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*
UtilitySolar PV*
Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 cents/kWh
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
$60/ton of CO2
$0/ton
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Reliability Cost
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Billion Tons World
OECD
Non OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2040
Billion Tons OECD
Growth Efficiency
Mix
2010 2040
Non OECD Billion Tons
CO2 Emissions Moderate
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World
Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at
current demand
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.0
North America
2.8
Latin America
1.6
Europe OECD
3.1
Africa
4.8
Middle East
6.6
Russia/ Caspian*
4.8
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
NorthAmerica
Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/Caspian
BCFD
Pipeline LNG
Local Unconventional Local Conventional
By Type
Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Percent of World Total By Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
