the outlook for energy - asfaltblijthe outlook for energy: a view to 2040 william colton december...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

William Colton

December 12, 2013

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development

ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

100

countries



15 demand

sectors

Residential

Commercial

Lt. Transportation

Hvy. Transportation

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Chemicals

Asphalt

Lubricants

Flaring

Energy Industry

Agriculture

Heavy Industry

Power Generation

Motor Gasoline

Distillate

Naphtha

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

LPG

Lubes

Asphalt

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Biomass/Other

Coal

Hydro

Geothermal

20 fuel

types

Solar

Wind

Bio-mogas

Bio-distillate

Electricity

Market Heat





Technology &

Policy



Trade

Flows

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2000 2020 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP

Trillion 2005$

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.8%

OECD

Non OECD


People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy


People’s Living Standard Depend on Energy


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2020 2040

Energy Saved

~500

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs


2010 – 2040

1.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

2000 2020 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.8%

OECD

Non OECD


Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)

2010 Percentage Urban

0-50%

50-75%

75-100%

2010 City – 10 million +

Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)

2040 Percentage Urban

0-50%

50-75%

75-100%



Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

Energy Demand by Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


Industrial

By Sector

Energy

Industry

Chemicals

Heavy

Industry

Other

Percent Share

Industrial Energy Demand

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

OECD

China

India

Rest of

Non OECD

2010

2040


By Fuel

Percent Share

Other

Oil

NGLs

Naphtha Other

Electricity

Coal

Gas

Industrial Energy Demand

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

OECD

China

India

Rest of

Non OECD

2010

2040


Transportation

0

15

30

45

60

75

2010 2020 2030 2040

0

15

30

45

60

75

2010 2020 2030 2040

Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon

U.S.

Average

Fleet

Europe

Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Elec/Plug-in

Full Hybrid

CNG+LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

Car Fleet by Type Million Cars


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

Europe LatinAmerica

MiddleEast

Rest ofWorld

Rail

Marine

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010

0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Sector Demand MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

MBDOE


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

Europe LatinAmerica

MiddleEast

Rest ofWorld

Rail

Marine

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040

0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Sector Demand MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

MBDOE

2010


Electricity generation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 2 4 6 8 10

2040

0 2 4 6 8 10

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Eu

rop

e

1000 KWh per Capita

Population (Billions)

Electricity Use

Electricity Use by Region

Growth in Electricity

Demand

2010 – 2040

~90%

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Eu

rop

e

Mid

dle

Ea

st

Rest of

World Lati

n A

me

ric

a

Asia Pacific


2010

2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16CCS Onshore

Wind

Gas

Coal

Gas

Plant Cost, Startup 2030

2013 cents/kWh

Coal Nuclear

$60/tonne of CO2

$0/tonne

Solar PV

Utility *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.

Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity

Baseload Intermittent

Reliability

Cost*

Reliability

Cost*


Electricity Demand

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh

Residential

Commercial

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Transportation

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas


Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo


2010 - 2040

1.0%

2040

2010

0.7%

1.7%

0.0%

2.5% 0.4%

5.9% 2.0%


Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Billion Tonnes

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

North America

Russia/Caspian

Europe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

OECD Non OECD

2010

2040

Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person

CO2 Emissions Plateau


Supply

Liquids Supply

Liquid Supply by Type

MBDOE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040

Other

Biofuels

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Crude and Condensate Resource*

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040

Cumulative

Production

through 2040

Remaining

Resource

Trillion barrels of oil


* Source: IEA

Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies

Thousand TCF

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2020 2040

Gas Production by Region

0

10

20

30

2012 2011

Remaining Recoverable Resource*

BCFD

Conventional

Unconventional

BCFD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2020 2040

Unconventional

Conventional

ROW

Gas Production by Type

2012

AP

NA

Africa

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Russia/

Caspian

Europe

North America

Latin America


* Source: IEA

0

20

40

60

80

100

SupplyDemand

LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies

BCFD

LNG in 2040

Asia

Pacific

Other

2010 Pacific

Basin

Europe

Middle

East

Atlantic

Basin


Global Energy Trade


Indicative trade flows

Liquids Trade

-35

0

35North America

MBDOE

-35

0

35

2010 2025 2040

Net Exports

Net Imports

-35

0

35Latin America

-35

0

35Africa

-35

0

35 Europe

-35

0

35

-35

0

35

Middle East

-35

0

35Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian


Natural Gas Trade

-60

0

60North America

BCFD

-60

0

60

2010 2025 2040

Net Exports

Net Imports

-60

0

60Latin America

-60

0

60Africa

-60

0

60 Europe

-60

0

60

-60

0

60

Middle East

-60

0

60Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian


Conclusions


the outlook for energy - asfaltblijthe outlook for energy: a view to 2040 william colton december...

Documents