the orlando housing market steven l. merchant, gri global realty international 2013 orra chairman of...
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The OrlandoHousing Market
Steven L. Merchant, GRIGlobal Realty International
2013 ORRA Chairman of the Board
Orlando Annual Home SalesOrlando Annual Home Sales
Orlando YTD Home Sales
Orlando YTD home sales more than doubled since the low of 2008
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
17,568 17,575
11,112
8,423
12,381
17,405 16,67616,120
18,289
Orlando Median Price (July 2005-2013) Orlando Median Price (July 2005-2013)
Orlando Median Price (July 2005-2013)
Orlando’s July 2013 median price increased by 44 percent since July 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$245,000
$254,900
$264,436 $208,000
$133,000 $108,700
$115,500
$126,000 $157,000
Orlando Home Sales by Price RangeOrlando Home Sales by Price Range
Orlando Home Sales by Price Range
Almost 40 percent of homes sold in July were priced $100,000 to $199,999
743
1,110
563
203 100 37 24 14 8 7 27
Orlando Home Sales by Price RangeOrlando Home Sales by Price Range
Orlando Home Sales by Financing
53 percent of homes sold YTD in 2013 were all cash
All Cas
h
New C
onventio
nal
New F
HA
New V
A
Assum
e Conve
ntional
Assum
e FHA/V
A
Other
9,733
4,897
2,305
489 237 143 485
Orlando Home InventoryOrlando Home Inventory
Orlando Inventory – July 2013
Orlando inventory decreased 69 percent since July 2008
JUL. '05 JUL. '06 JUL. '07 JUL. '08 JUL. '09 JUL. '10 JUL. '11 JUL. '12 JUL. '13
4,473
19,827
26,018 24,742
17,231
16,563
10,349
8,106
8,099
Orlando Months of InventoryOrlando Months of Inventory
Orlando Months of Inventory
5-7 months is generally considered a “balanced market”
JUL. '07 JUL. '08 JUL. '09 JUL. '10 JUL. '11 JUL. '12 JUL. '13
1.56
8.40
17.07
6.58
4.51 3.30 2.86
Orlando Days on MarketOrlando Days on Market
Orlando Average Days on Market
Homes are going under contract in approximately 2 months
JUL. '05 JUL. '06 JUL. '07 JUL. '08 JUL. '09 JUL. '10 JUL. '11 JUL. '12 JUL. '13
27
61
96
116101
84101
82
62
Orlando Pending Home SalesOrlando Pending Home Sales
Orlando Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales have more than tripled since July 2007
JUL. '07 JUL. '08 JUL. '09 JUL. '10 JUL. '11 JUL. '12 JUL. '13
2,571 3,258
7,713
9,133 9,869 9,704
7,990
Average Interest RateAverage Interest Rate
Average Interest Rate
Interest rates have returned to levels seen in 2011 but remain low
JUL. '05 JUL. '06 JUL. '07 JUL. '08 JUL. '09 JUL. '10 JUL. '11 JUL. '12 JUL. '13
5.55%
6.53% 6.50% 6.40%
5.34%
4.67%4.53%
3.78%
4.51%
Short Sales: 17.28%July 2012: 28.21%
Normal Sales: 65.41%
July 2012: 48.37%
Foreclosures: 17.31%
July2012: 23.41%
Orlando Home Sales by Type
Normal sales made up almost two-thirds of all home sales in July 2013
Orlando Median Price by Sales TypeOrlando Median Price by Sales Type
Orlando Median Price by Sales Type
Sales of all types have seen median price increases
JUL. '12 JUL. '13
$89,750 $105,000 $110,000 $125,000
$167,500$185,000
Foreclosure Short Sale Normal
Sales in 2013 (YTD)Sales in 2013 (YTD)
YTD County Snapshot: Orange
All zip code reports available at www.orlandorealtors.org.
Total Units Sold 10,969
Total Sales Volume $2,220,274,869
Average Sales Price $202,414
Average Cost Per Square Foot $108.03
Sales in 2013 (YTD)Sales in 2013 (YTD)
YTD County Snapshot: Seminole
All zip code reports available at www.orlandorealtors.org.
Total Units Sold 4,168
Total Sales Volume $778,205,047
Average Sales Price $186,709
Average Cost Per Square Foot $97.68
Sales in 2013 (YTD)Sales in 2013 (YTD)
YTD County Snapshot: Osceola
All zip code reports available at www.orlandorealtors.org.
Total Units Sold 3,512
Total Sales Volume $539,057,345
Average Sales Price $153,490
Average Cost Per Square Foot $85.03
Sales in 2013 (YTD)Sales in 2013 (YTD)
YTD County Snapshot: Lake
All zip code reports available at www.orlandorealtors.org.
Total Units Sold 3,421
Total Sales Volume $501,114,537
Average Sales Price $146,482
Average Cost Per Square Foot $78.80
Issues Affecting the Real Estate Market
Rising mortgage interest rates
Mortgage rates are low, but down payment requirements required and the credit worthiness of the borrower can make it difficult to secure a loan.
Great rates are only available to those with a good credit and a substantial down payment. A real crunch may come if rates rise and credit standards also remain high.
Issues Affecting the Real Estate Market
Competition from all cash buyers
YTD - 53.22% of sales have been all cash.
Often fueled by international investors and retirees flooded with cash after selling their homes elsewhere.
First-time homebuyers often get squeezed out to the market.
Issues Affecting the Real Estate Market
Low inventory of homes for sale
Banks have slowed down foreclosures and investors have bought many homes to rent them out.
New construction remains slow. In June, housing starts unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in almost a year.
Sellers are entering the market, but many area holding off because they’re underwater or awaiting price gains.
Top Issues Affecting the Real Estate Market
Millennials aren’t forming households at the usual rate
In 2012, 39 percent of Millennials were in college. Many graduate with student debt. (Home ownership fell twice as fast from 2008 to 2012 among 30 year-olds with student debt as it did for loan-free 30-yearolds.)
Nearly 54 percent of people under 25 were unemployed or underemployed in 2012. Wages for college grads are also down, and their credit score is roughly 620.
