THE ORANGE REVOLUTION THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in

UKRAINEUKRAINE

AgendaAgenda

What is Ukraine? An overviewWhat is Ukraine? An overview The Orange Revolution and its historical The Orange Revolution and its historical

preconditionspreconditions- Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy…Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy…- Why these elections were so important?Why these elections were so important?- What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004?What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004?

What is going to change in Ukraine?What is going to change in Ukraine? What to take home? – Q&AWhat to take home? – Q&A

UKRAINEUKRAINE

• The biggest country in the East Central Europe:- territory: 603,5 thousand km2- population: 47,280,800,000+ people• A multiethnic country: more than 130

nationalities• 24 oblasts + Autonomous Republic of Crimea- exit to 2 seas: Black, Azov- mountains: Carpathians, Crimean- major rivers: Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug, Donets• Neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU),

Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU), Belarus, Russia, Georgia, (the CIS)

UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)Population (thousands of ppl)

44000

45000

46000

47000

48000

49000

50000

51000

52000

53000

%

UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)

• GDP growth: 12% in 2004• *Areas of strong specialization: mineral

production, oil and energy products, chemical products, mechanical equipment, machines, electrical equipment, transport and road equipment, black metals, textiles, polymeric materials

• Main trade partners: CIS, EU, Africa, Asia• FDI: USD 7761,5 mln

UKRAINE (continued)UKRAINE (continued)Real GDP Growth (1991-2004)

-8,7 -9,9

-14,2

-22,9

-12,2-10

-3 -1,9

-0,2

5,99,2

5,2

9,312

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

%

Ukrainian HistoryUkrainian History

• Kyiv Rus• Cossacks’ military state• Bohdan Khmelnitskiy’s Hetmanate• Ukrainian People’s Republic• Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic• Ukraine…• Have been re-divided among:

Lithuania, Poland, Austro-Hungary, Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia…

• Have always been fighting for freedom

Elites and electionsElites and elections

1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk.1991 – presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk.

CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’CPU apparatchiks + ‘red directorate’

1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma1994 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma

‘‘Red director’ + business clansRed director’ + business clans

1998 – parliamentary elections: 1998 – parliamentary elections:

Communist party + ‘red directorate’Communist party + ‘red directorate’

Business Groups in UkraineBusiness Groups in Ukraine

InterpipeSystem CapitalManagement

Industrial UnionDonbass Pryvat

Interpipe: Key personality: Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchma’s son-in-law. Personal wealth: USD1.5 bln.Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of EconomyMedia assets controlled: ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding (newspapers, radio stations)Industrial Union of Donbass: Key person: Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth: USD1.2 bln.Political representation: ex-Prime Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel and energy, ex-president’s advisor System Capital Management: Key person: Renat Akhmetov. Personal wealth: USD2.5 bln.Political representation: Regions of UkraineMedia assets controlled: TRC Ukraina, Internet web-sitesPryvat:Key person: Ihor Kolomoyskiy. Personal wealth: USD2.2 bln.Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of Presidential Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk), ex-Head of NBU Media assets controlled by Medvedchuk: Inter, 1+1, newspapers, radio stations, Internet web-sites

BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)

STRENGTHSSTRENGTHS Strong influence on Strong influence on

politics through political politics through political representationrepresentation

Control over major Control over major production areas in production areas in UkraineUkraine

Access to President Access to President KuchmaKuchma

Control over media Control over media assets securing control assets securing control over public opinionover public opinion

WEAKNESSESWEAKNESSES Lack of consolidation Lack of consolidation

(groups compete in (groups compete in business and political business and political influence)influence)

Various extents of Various extents of dependence on Kuchmadependence on Kuchma

Concentrated allocation Concentrated allocation (East of Ukraine: (East of Ukraine: Dnepropetrovsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkov)Donetsk, Kharkov)

Areas of Business Groups’ Competition*Areas of Business Groups’ Competition*

System Capital System Capital ManagementManagement

Industrial Industrial Union of Union of DonbassDonbass

InterpipeInterpipe PryvatPryvat

MetalsMetals

Metal Mining Metal Mining CokeCoke

MetalsMetals

Metal Mining Metal Mining CokeCoke

MetalsMetals MetalsMetals

Metal Mining Metal Mining

CokeCoke

PipesPipes

OblenergosOblenergos

Machine buildingMachine building

PipesPipes

Ferro alloysFerro alloys

OblenergosOblenergos

Machine buildingMachine building

Ferro AlloysFerro Alloys

TelecomsTelecoms

Mass MediaMass Media

TelecomsTelecoms

Mass MediaMass Media

TelecomsTelecoms

Elites and elections (continued)Elites and elections (continued)March 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crashMarch 1999 – the leader of opposition dies in a car crashOctober 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid KuchmaOctober 1999 – presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma

VSVS

Leonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKOLeonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKO (leader of Communists)(leader of Communists)

(= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…)(= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov…)

Intrusion of Russian political technologistsIntrusion of Russian political technologists

UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000

Vyacheslav Chornovil Georgiy GongadzeVyacheslav Chornovil Georgiy Gongadze

REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic?REFERENDUM: Ukraine – a presidential republic?The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications…The people said ‘YES’? Falsifications…

MELNICHENKO’S TAPESMELNICHENKO’S TAPESKuchma was selling missiles to Iraq? International pressureKuchma was selling missiles to Iraq? International pressure

MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!?MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMA’S IMPEACHMENT!?

Viktor YuschenkoViktor Yuschenko Successful bankerSuccessful banker 1996–1999 - Head of the National 1996–1999 - Head of the National

Bank of Ukraine:Bank of Ukraine:- Stopped inflationStopped inflation- Introduced HryvnyaIntroduced Hryvnya- Avoided financial crisis of 1998Avoided financial crisis of 1998 2000 – Prime Minister:2000 – Prime Minister:- Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9%Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9%- Eliminated bartersEliminated barters- Paid salary and pension debtsPaid salary and pension debts- Pressed the business groupsPressed the business groupsWeaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing Weaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing

momentummomentum

Elites and Elections (continued)Elites and Elections (continued)2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina, 2002 – parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina,

bloc of Viktor Yuschenkobloc of Viktor Yuschenko

A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME!A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME! Opposition fails to form a majorityOpposition fails to form a majority Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of

Presidential AdministrationPresidential Administration

Results of the Parliamentary Elections 2002

23.5719.98

11.777.26 6.87 6.27

05

1015

2025

Nasha

Ukra

ina

For

United

Ukra

ine

Socia

list

Part

y

Viktor YanukovychViktor Yanukovych

Head of the Donetsk State Head of the Donetsk State AdministrationAdministration

Head of the Donetsk Oblast Head of the Donetsk Oblast CouncilCouncil

2002-2004 - Prime Minister2002-2004 - Prime Minister- Increased economic growth to 12%Increased economic growth to 12%- Increased salaries and pensionsIncreased salaries and pensions- Fought the crop and fuel crisesFought the crop and fuel crises

Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, close links to unpopular regime close links to unpopular regime and business groupsand business groups

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMCONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after electionsThe last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after elections

Constitution of 1996Constitution of 1996

PRESIDENTPRESIDENT Prime Minister PARLIAMENT Prime Minister PARLIAMENT

Proposed changes (2004)Proposed changes (2004)

President President PRIMEPRIME MINISTERMINISTER PARLIAMENT PARLIAMENT

ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004

The great possibility of Yuschenko being The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for the business groupselected is a real danger for the business groups

Business groups unite their resources and Business groups unite their resources and influence to support Yanukovychinfluence to support Yanukovych

Russia resumes its pressureRussia resumes its pressure

Funds (Funds (Renat AkhmetovRenat Akhmetov) + Media () + Media (Viktor PinchukViktor Pinchuk) + ) + Russian polittechnologists (Russian polittechnologists (Viktor MedvedchukViktor Medvedchuk) = ) = growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%growth of Yanukovych’s rating from 4% to 30%

CAMPAIGN 2004CAMPAIGN 2004 26 candidates26 candidatesTechnical candidates…Technical candidates… Access to media and Access to media and

resourcesresourcesRejected to most of the candidates Rejected to most of the candidates

but onebut one Positioning of the major Positioning of the major

candidatescandidatesBusy Prime Minister vs People’s Busy Prime Minister vs People’s

candidatecandidate Attempts at murdering the Attempts at murdering the

candidatescandidatesPoisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg

scandal of Yanukovychscandal of Yanukovych

Violations of electoral law:Violations of electoral law:- Falsifying signaturesFalsifying signatures- Using administrative resourceUsing administrative resource- Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia

supporting one of the candidates)supporting one of the candidates)- Exceeding campaign financial limitsExceeding campaign financial limits Applying political technologies:Applying political technologies:- Playing on differences between East and Playing on differences between East and

West of UkraineWest of Ukraine- Raising pensions and salaries… Raising pensions and salaries…

inflationinflation- Preventing Yuschenko from coming to Preventing Yuschenko from coming to

the Eastern regionsthe Eastern regions- Creating false images of candidates Creating false images of candidates

(Yuschenko - fascist)(Yuschenko - fascist)

RESULTSRESULTS

Results of presidential elections 2004

39.9 39.2646.61 49.46 51.99

44.2

010

203040

5060

Yuschenko

Yanukovych

Yuschenko

Yanukovych

Yuschenko

Yanukovych

31.10.2004 21.11.2004 26.12.2004

RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTIONRESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION

Yuschenko is the President of UkraineYuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all of the worldUkraine has become famous in all of the world Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republicUkraine is going to be a parliamentary republic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic

reformsreforms Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the

key authoritieskey authorities The pressure of Russia has decreasedThe pressure of Russia has decreased Ukraine has cleared its external course: EUUkraine has cleared its external course: EU

WHAT TO TAKE HOMEWHAT TO TAKE HOME

The Orange Revolution is a result of many The Orange Revolution is a result of many years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and years’ evolution of Ukrainian politics and economyeconomy

The Orange Revolution is the third democratic The Orange Revolution is the third democratic change of elites in Ukrainechange of elites in Ukraine

The Orange Revolution has reshaped The Orange Revolution has reshaped Ukraine’s position in Europe and the CISUkraine’s position in Europe and the CIS

FOR MORE INFOFOR MORE INFO

www.www.pravdapravda.com..com.uaua

www.bbc.co.uk/ukrainianwww.bbc.co.uk/ukrainian

www.www.cvkcvk..govgov..uaua

www.www.ukrstatukrstat..govgov..uaua

www.president.www.president.govgov..uaua

www.www.yuschenkoyuschenko.com..com.uaua

www.ya2004.com.www.ya2004.com.uaua