the opportunity for sicin the uk supply chain
TRANSCRIPT
The opportunity for SiC in the UK supply chainPrepared for Centre for Power Electronics Annual Meeting
July 2021
About Exawatt
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Strategic consulting and market analysis in industries that support decarbonization through electrification
Focus of this presentation
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Power electronics (not RF)
Markets where SiC value justifies increased cost (vs silicon)
How SiC market share will grow as its cost falls
Overview of the UK SiC supply chain (current and prospective)
How the UK can establish capability in SiC
Exawatt activity in SiC
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Exawatt has applied its PV research methodologies to the global SiC power electronics market, beginning with applications in EVs
Models include:• SiC crystal growth cost • SiC die cost• SiC device cost and
performance tracker (MOSFET and Schottky diode)
• SiC device and wafer demand analysis and forecasts for EV and PV markets
• EV core technology analysis (inverter, DC-DC converter, on-board charger, charging station) and demand forecasts
• Global EV sales tracking and forecastingSource: GT Advanced Technologies
Exawatt research partnerships: ESCAPE project
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Exawatt is part of the UK-based ESCAPE project (End-to-end Supply Chain development for Automotive Power Electronics). The project started in October 2019Focus is on developing a supply chain for silicon carbide in automotive applications
The BEV revolution is gathering momentum
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We believe BEVs – not hybrids – will dominate the vehicle market by 2030
This presents a huge opportunity for SiC: lots of device-hungry vehicles with big, expensive batteries – and SiC can help to reduce battery pack size and cost
0.0%0.1%
0.2%0.3%
0.4%0.5%
0.6%
0.7%0.8%
0.9%1.0%
2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4
BEV household share
US
Europe
Source: Exawatt
BEV cost drivers: range, battery cost/kWh, efficiency
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Source: Exawatt, incorporating estimates from TUM, ICCT, EPA, CARB, NHTSA, company data, Morgan Stanley
SiC enables either a 5-10% increase in range – or a smaller battery for the same range
ICE Full hybrid BEV BEV BEV BEV
50kWh 50kWh 45kWh 45kWh
$150/kWh $100/kWh $100/kWh $80/kWh
ICE vs hybrid vs BEV manufacturing cost
Battery pack
BEV/hybridpowertrainICEpowertrainCommoncomponents
SiC benefit is greatest in long-range cars
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Source: Exawatt
Audi E-Tron 55 Quattro
BMW i3Honda E
Hyundai Kona 39kWh
Hyundai Kona 64kWh
Jaguar I-PACE
MG ZSMini Cooper S Electric
Nissan Leaf ZE1 40kWh Nissan Leaf ZE1 62kWh
Porsche Taycan (800V)
Porsche Taycan Turbo S (800V)
Renault Zoe ZE 40Renault Zoe ZE 50Skoda Citigo-e
Tesla Model 3 Standard RangeTesla Model 3 Long Range
Tesla Model S Long Range
Tesla Model S Performance
VW e-Golf
VW ID3 1st Edition
VW ID3 Pure*
BYD Han*
BYD Han Flagship*Tesla Model Y Long Range Dual Motor*
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Motor power (kW)
Battery capacity (kWh)
EV battery capacity vs motor power
Inverter uses SiC MOSFETsInverter uses Si IGBTs
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4
Vehicles BEV demand (TTM)
China
Europe (inc. UK)
Tesla (SiC)
USA
UK
SiC is already mainstream
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Source: Exawatt
Hyundai Ioniq 5 - coming in 2021 – has a SiC inverter
New car model lifetime is typically 5-8 years
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7 years 6 years
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Quarterly sales Leading UK family car A
Source: Exawatt analysis of DfT data
When will the last mainstream passenger ICE car be sold?
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* functionally equivalent for needs of average user, and competitively priced
Event Aggressive Conservative
BEVs reach tipping point* 2024 2026
Last mainstream ICE car model launches 2025 2027
ICE version production lifetime 5 years 8 years
Last mainstream ICE car is produced in UK 2030 2035
UK BEV sales will grow…
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
UK BEV and FCEV sales (millions of vehicles)
Total vehicles(inc. ICE)
BEV/FCEVHigh/SiC wins
BEV/FCEVBase/Mid case
BEV/FCEVLow/SiC lags
… but UK manufacturing must take advantage
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Source: Exawatt analysis of SMMT data
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cars manufactured in the UK
SiC is getting cheaper…
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Source: Exawatt
... which will accelerate SiC demand in BEVs
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
UK SiC wafer demand for EVs (200mm-equivalent units)
"SiC wins"
Mid case
"SiC lags"
Opportunities: BEVs and beyond
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New power electronics enable more efficient, cheaper vehicles with lower running costs
Battery supply chain benefits from reduced materials requirement per kWh
The above offer savings at the grid level
Large-scale EV manufacturing enables cost reductions that can be leveraged in other applications that require power converters
Other transportation forms also benefit from SiC power electronics, including:
• Rail (efficiency and size)
• Aviation (efficiency, size and weight)
• Maritime (efficiency)
• Grid (efficiency)
Source: UK Department for Transport, July 2021
Summary
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What do we need to ensure a robust UK SiC industry?
• True end-to-end supply chain (inc. crystal growth)
• Early action to develop position in emerging markets (aviation, rail, maritime, grid)
• Commitment to mass market, not just niche
• A UK “five-year plan” with SiC at the heart and a common roadmap
Need to make SiC part of government thinking >>>
New report: market for SiC in electric vehicles
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Simon PriceCEO, Exawatt
Landmark House20 Broomgrove RoadSheffieldS10 2LR
Second edition (Q2) published in July 2021
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