The New Power-Duration Model in WKO4November 26, 2013 | Andrew R. Coggan, Ph.D.

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The $64,000 question

Why attempt to mathematically model the power-duration relationship?

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The $64,000 answer

Because having a robust mathematical description of an individual’s power-duration relationship provides quantitative insight re. their unique abilities and paves the way for other analyses.

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Importance of new power-duration model

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Uses for the power-duration model

1. Auto FTP2. Pmax3. FRC4. dFRC5. Phenotyping6. Individual adaptations scores7. Auto match finding8. Identification of outliers9. Optimal pacing strategy10. Application to other sports

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Definitions of terms

• Pmax – the maximal power that can be generated for a very short period of time. Units are W or W/kg.

• Functional reserve capacity (FRC) – the total amount of work that can be done during continuous exercise above FTP before fatigue occurs. Units are kJ or J/kg.

• Functional threshold power (FTP) – the highest power that can be sustained in a quasi-steady-state for a prolonged period of time. Units are W or W/kg

Andrew R. Coggan, Ph.D., Peaks Coaching Group, and/or TrainingPeaks are the owner(s) and/or licensee(s) of all intellectual property rights to this presentation and the material it contains. These works are protected by copyright laws and treaties around the world. All such rights are reserved.

Uses for the power-duration model

1. Auto FTP2. Pmax3. FRC4. dFRC5. Phenotyping6. Individual adaptations scores7. Auto match finding8. Identification of outliers9. Optimal pacing strategy10. Application to other sports

Andrew R. Coggan, Ph.D., Peaks Coaching Group, and/or TrainingPeaks are the owner(s) and/or licensee(s) of all intellectual property rights to this presentation and the material it contains. These works are protected by copyright laws and treaties around the world. All such rights are reserved.

1. Automatic estimation of FTP

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Auto-estimation of FTP

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Auto-FTP vs. 95% of best 20 min power

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2. Calculation of Pmax

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Pmax vs. 1 s power

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3. Calculation of FRC

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Benefits of the critical power model

“. . . the critical power concept is useful for two reasons. One, it provides a very good conceptual framework for understanding the most basic factors determining exercise performance/power output (i.e., anaerobic and aerobic energy production), and how the contribution of each varies as a function of time. Two, actually measuring critical power and W’ is well within the capacity of anyone who owns a power meter (and understands a little bit about math), and thus provides a means of quantifying changes in fitness beyond just even "I was able to sustain X watts for Y seconds.”

- Yours truly, post to the wattage list on 2/11/2002

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Changes in FRC across seasons

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Changes in FRC across seasons

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Changes in FRC within a season

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Power-duration history chart in WKO4

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Approximate standards for FRC (in J/kg)

Men

Category FRC

World class >380

Exceptional 363-379

Excellent 347-362

Very good 331-346

Good 316-330

Moderate 301-315

Fair 287-300

Novice 2 275-286

Novice 1 <274

Women

Category FRC

World class >297

Exceptional 286-296

Excellent 276-285

Very good 265-275

Good 255-264

Moderate 245-254

Fair 240-244

Novice 2 236-240

Novice 1 <235

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4. Dynamic FRC

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The origins of dFRC: modeling team pursuit

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Origins of dFRC: modeling other events

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Example of dFRC modeling: track racing

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Example of dFRC modeling: track racing

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Example of dFRC modeling: intervals

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Example of dFRC modeling: intervals

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Example of dFRC modeling: intervals

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Example of dFRC modeling: hillclimb TT

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Example of dFRC modeling: criterium

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Example of dFRC modeling: intervals

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5. Phenotyping

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Phenotyping in WKO4

• The objective classification of a cyclist as a “sprinter”, “pursuiter”, “all-rounder”, or “TTer” based on quantitative analysis of the shape of their individual power-duration relationship.

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Evolution of rider phenotyping

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Automatic rider phenotyping in WKO4

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Phenotype map

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Automatic rider phenotyping in WKO4

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Power-duration standards in WKO4

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6. Individual adaptation scores

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Modeling adaption instead of stress/strain

“(That is why) it is TSS (training stress score) and not TPS (training performance score).”

– Yours truly, post to the the wattage list on 4/30/2005 “XXXX had it right when he indicated that TSS is merely a measure of the overall training load/stress, and in and of itself is *not* a predictor of (aerobic) performance. At least in theory, it is possible to derive a metric that would more directly predict, e.g., changes in functional threshold power, but this would entail more than just ignoring the additional strain resulting from very high intensity exercise . . . it would require discounting that strain relative to that encountered at lower intensities.”

– Yours truly, post to the the wattage list on 9/26/2005

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Relationship between training and performance

Training loadAthlete

Performance

(“dose”) (↑ or ↓)

SystemResponseStimulus

(stress) (strain)

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7. Automatic match finding

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What is a “match”?

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Example of automatic match identification

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8. Identification of outliers

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Identification of outliers

1 10 100 1000 10000 1000000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Duration (s)

Pow

er (W

)

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Variability of human performance

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9. Calculation of optimal pacing strategy

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Analysis of TT pacing strategy - 2003

Where I lost!!

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Optimal pacing strategy - 2006 national TT

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10. Application to other sports

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Application of the model to running

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Application of the model to swimming

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Conclusions

The new power-duration model in WKO4 serves as the basis for numerous other analyses that can potentially provide important new insight for powermeter users.

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