the new international population order€¦ · highest population growth rate 3. ... top ten...
TRANSCRIPT
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Electricity and the Human Prospect
The New International Population Order
Joseph ChamiePopulation Division, DESA
United Nations
Stanford UniversityPalo Alto, California8-9 December 2004
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What is the message?F U T U R E D K W O R L D E L E C T R I C I T Y H U M A N W O M E N O S P O P U L A T C O S T E N V I R O N G R O W O P T I M A O R D E C L I N D E A T H F Q U I T P I P E N S I O N H E A L T H X U N T E C H S T A T S P O L I C Y P R O S P E C T D A R K
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“It takes a strong man to make a tender chicken.”
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“It takes an aroused man to make a chicken affectionate.”
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“It won’t leak in your pocket and embarrass you.”
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“It won’t leak in your pocket and make you pregnant.”
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What is the message?
Where are we headed?
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World Population in 20th Century
1. Population nearly quadrupled2. Highest population growth rate3. Largest annual population increase4. Shortest doubling time for population5. Shortest time to add 1 billion persons
…/
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World Population in 20th Century
6. Revolutionary declines in mortality7. Unprecedented declines in fertility8. Significant international migration9. Increased urbanization 10. Emergence of mega-cities
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What kind of demographic future will the new century
bring?
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World Population by Variant, 1950-2050
02468
1012
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
Popu
latio
n (b
illio
ns) High
Medium
Low
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Annual World Population Increase, 1950-2050
8777
29
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.01 9
5 01 9
5 51 9
6 01 9
6 51 9
7 01 9
7 51 9
8 01 9
8 51 9
9 01 9
9 52 0
0 02 0
0 52 0
1 02 0
1 52 0
2 02 0
2 52 0
3 02 0
3 52 0
4 02 0
4 5
Year
Incr
ease
(mill
ions
)
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Population of Developed and Developing Regions: 1950, 2000 and 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 2000 2050
Year
Popu
latio
n (b
illion
s)
Developed
Developing
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Top Ten Contributers to Population Growth, 2000
India21%
China12%
Pakistan5%
Nigeria4%Bangladesh
4%Indonesia3%
U.S.A.3%
Brazil3%
Congo2%
Ethiopia2%
Other countries41%
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Population of Least Developed Countries by Variant, 1950-2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of Nigeria by Variant,1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of Pakistan by Variant,1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illion
s)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of South Africa by Variant, 1950-2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of Italy by Variant, 1950-2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of Japan by Variant,1950-2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
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Population of Canada by Variant, 1950-2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Zero Mig.
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Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Zero mig.
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Population of Europe and Africa:1950, 2000, 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1950 2000 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
ns) .
.
EuropeAfrica
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Population of Russia and Pakistan: 1950, 2000, 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950 2000 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illions
)
RussiaPakistan
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Percent 65 Years or Older for World and Italy:
1950, 2000 and 2050
57
16
8
18
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950 2000 2050Year
Perc
ent 6
5 ye
ars
or o
lder
..
WorldItaly
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Potential Support RatiosNation 2000China 10.0France 4.1Germany 4.2Italy 3.7Canada 5.4USA 5.4
20502.72.11.81.52.42.7
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Age in 2050 to Maintain Potential Support RatiosNationChinaFranceGermanyItalyCanadaUSA
Age78.774.076.276.575.273.1
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By 2050:1. Larger population2. Slower growth3. Nearly all growth in
developing regions4. Lower fertility5. Many nations smaller
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By 2050:6. Lower mortality &
longer life*7. HIV/AIDS worsens 8. Older population9. More urbanized10.Increased migration
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What should be done?
DenialDelayDo nothing
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Embrace future challenges!
Bold visionStrong and enlightened leadership
Resources
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What else?
Thank you!