Head, International Partnerships and Initiatives, IEA

The new IEA Technology Roadmap

Delivering Sustainable Bioenergy

Simone Landolina

GBEP Task Force on SustainabilityRome, 28 November 2017

© IEA 2017

2016 – Renewables hitting new records driven by solar PV

For the first time a single renewable fuel became the largest source of net capacity growth,

while all renewables provided an all-time record two thirds of global net capacity additions

Power capacity additions by fuel 2016

0 50 100 150 200

Renewables

Gas

Wind

Solar PV

Coal

Additions (GW)

Retirements

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The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised

Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong

push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.

Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind

Building construction

Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles

Lighting, appliances and building equipment

Electric vehicles

Energy-intensive industrial processes

Transport biofuels

Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power

●Not on track

●Accelerated improvement needed

●On track

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Renewables 35%

Climate goals require early emissions peak and technology innovation

CO2 emissions would need to fall to 1960 levels by 2050, with an economy that is over 20 times larger.

Bioenergy to provide some 17% of CO2 savings to 2060. In the B2DS, key contribution from BECCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Efficiency 40%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

GtC

O2

Reference Scenario

2 degrees Scenario – 2DS

Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS

Renewables 15%

Efficiency 34%

Fuel switching 18%

Nuclear 1%

CCS 32%

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

© IEA 2017

IEA Bioenergy Technology Roadmap and How2Guide

IEA Technology Roadmaps

• Long-term vision (2060); near-term action (2020 / 2030)

• Regional relevance and deployment pathways

• Partnerships for implementation (TCPs, MI, GBEP, Biofuture Platform,…)

IEA How2Guides

• Provide practical information for policy makers and planners to establish

a national or regional technology-specific roadmap

• IEA Roadmaps re-endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meetings in 2016

(Japan) and 2017 (Italy) “(G7 Ministers) welcomed the progress report on

the Second Phase of IEA’s Technology Roadmaps, focused on viable and

high impact technologies”

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Strong acceleration needed between now and 2030

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

0

20

40

60

80

2015 2030 2060

EJ Other

Electricity

Transport

Industry

Modern bioenergy in final energy consumption in 2DS

2X

3X

4X

10X

Total final energy consumption of sustainable bioenergy increases four times by 2060 in the 2DS. Use of

sustainable biofuels for transport increases tenfold, with a large majority of advanced biofuels

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A massive scale up needed for advanced biofuels

Biofuels can complement EVs and play important roles in heavy freight, shipping and air transport – but a step change is needed in support policies for advanced biofuels

Recent trends, market forecasts and 2DS requirements for transport biofuels

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025

(2DS)

2030

(2DS)

Energy con

tent (EJ)

Conventional ethanol Conventional biodiesel Advanced ethanol Advanced biodiesel and biojet

Historical production and market forecast 2DS requirements

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Regional Biofuels Demand 2015

85% of biofuels currently used in US, Brazil and EU

Achieving uptake of bioenergy in more regions

3 EJ

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Regional Biofuels Demand 2060 – 2DS

China, Other Asia, India and Africa become major markets

Achieving uptake of bioenergy in more regions

30 EJ

10x

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Sustainable bioenergy

Bioenergy now needs a new impetus based on up to date evidence, sound sustainability regime and predictable policies.

• 2DS needs c. 145EJ of sustainably

supplied feedstock.

• Organic residues and waste to play major

role, along with sustainable resource

management, forestry, and agriculture.

• Bioenergy is complex and sometimes

controversial. General statements and

oversimplification are unhelpful.

© IEA 2017

Conclusions

• Sustainable bioenergy is an indispensable component of the necessary portfolio of low-C technologies in climate-change mitigation scenarios

• Biofuels plays an important role in de-carbonising transport especially in aviation, shipping and other long haul transport. A step-change is needed in support policies for advanced biofuels. Industry to achieve economies of scale and innovation to deliver necessary cost reductions towards competitiveness

• GBEP’s Sustainability Indicators for Bioenergy can play a key role to help develop sustainable supply chains and implement appropriate sustainability governance

• Massive opportunities for technology diversity and innovation in the context of

advanced bioeconomy. Mission Innovation and Biofuture Platform can play a key

role in profile raising and promoting innovation

• IEA’s Technology Roadmap: “Delivering Sustainable Bioenergy” provides

technology milestones and policy actions needed to unlock the potential of bioenergy

in a sustainable energy mix

© IEA 2017

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