the navies in the 21st century · 2016. 8. 5. · the navies in the 21st century by dr m. vego; jmo...
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THE NAVIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY
ByDR M. VEGO; JMO DEPARTMENT,
U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE, NEWPORT, RI., USA
ROYAL HIGH INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE,BRUSSELS; 21 NOVEMBER 2011
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“THE ONLY WAY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE IS TO HAVE POWER TO SHAPE THE FUTURE.”
“IN A TIME OF DRASTIC CHANGE IT IS THE LEARNERS WHO INHERIT THE FUTURE. THE LEARNED USUALLY FIND THEMSELVES EQUIPPED TO LIVE IN A WORLD THAT NO LONGER EXIST.”
ERIC HOFFER (1902-1983)
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THE FUTURE GLOBAL STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
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INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM• CONTEMPORARY
POWERS UNITED STATES EUROPEAN UNION RUSSIAN
FEDERATION JAPAN• RISING POWERS PEOPLE‘S REPUBLIC
OF CHINA (PRC) INDIA
• EMERGING POWERS BRAZIL IRAN TURKEY
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CONTEMPORARY POWERS
• UNITED STATES• EUROPEAN UNION (EU)• RUSSIAN FEDERATION• JAPAN
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RISING POWERS
• PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC)
• INDIA
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EMERGING POWERS
• BRAZIL
• IRAN
• TURKEY
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PIVOTAL REGIONS
• GREATER MIDDLE EAST• SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA• KOREAN PENINSULA• THE POLAR AREA—THE
ARCTIC IN PARTICULAR.
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MARITIME DOMAIN AND ITS DIMENSIONS
• PHYSICAL• POLITICAL• SOCIAL• DEMOGRAPHIC• ECONOMIC
• MILITARY• LEGAL• ENVIRONMENTAL• OTHER
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PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
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DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSION
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ECONOMIC DIMENSION
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WORLD SEABORNE TRADE 1969-2010
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Top 20 largest shipping flags (October 2010)
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LEGAL DIMENSION
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Source:DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine), Strategic Trends Programme, global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040 (London: Ministry of Defence, 4th ed., 12 January 2010), p. 67.
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Source: DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine), Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040 (London: Ministry of Defence, 4th ed., 12 January 2010), p. 63.
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MILITARY DIMENSION
• SOME 150 NAVIES WORLDWIDE• RELATIVE DECLINE OF THE U.S.
NAVY• CHANGING NAVAL BALANCE IN
WESTERN PACIFIC• RISE OF PRC‘S NAVY (PLAN)• RISE OF THE INDIAN AND THE
BRAZILIAN NAVIES.
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CHINESE NAVAL CHALLENGE
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CHINESE EX-SOVIET AIRCRAFT CARRIER VARYAG
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PLAN‘S SOVREMENNY-CLASS MISSILE DESTROYER
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PLAN‘S KILO-CLASS SSK
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POTENTIAL SOURCES OF CONFLICT/WAR
• ATTEMPTS BY THE RISING POWERS TO IMPOSE THEIR POLITICAL/ECONOMIC INFLUENCE ON THE WEAKER NEIGHBOURS
• VIRULENT NATIONALISM• RELIGIOUS –BASED TOTALITARIAN IDEOLOGIES • LAND/MARITIME BORDER DISPUTES• STRUGGLE TO CONTROL SCARCE WATER RESOURCES • COMPETITION OF MAJOR POWERS FOR RELIABLE SUPPLY OF
OIL/NATURAL GAS AND MINERALS• OVERPOPULATION
• GLOBAL WAR IS UNLIKELY BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE• POSSIBILITY OF A REGIONAL HIGH-INTENSITY CONVENTIOINAL
WAR EXISTS• FLASHPOINTS– KOREAN PENINSULA; TAIWAN STRAIT; SOUTH
CHINA SEA; PERSIAN (ARABIAN) GULF; EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN.
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THREATS IN MARITIME DOMAIN
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ROLE AND IMPORTANCE OF THE NAVIES
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ROUTINE ACTIVITIES
• ENFORCING MARITIME BORDER LAWS & CUSTOMS
• VESSEL TRAFFIC SERVICE• SEARCH & RESCUE• SALVAGE• ORDNANCE DISPOSAL• HYDROGRAPHIC SURVEY• OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
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PROTECTION OF THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC INTERESTS AT SEA
• PROTECTION OF COMMERCIAL SHIPPING
• FISHERY PROTECTION• PROTECTION OF OFFSHORE
OIL/GAS INSTALLATIONS• PROTECTION OF SEABED MINERAL
DEPOSITS
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PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE / DISASTER RELIEF (HA /DR)
• ASSISTANCE IN THE AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS
• EMERGENCY MEDICAL ASSISTANCE
• GOODWILL ACTIVITIES• REFUGEE ASSISTANCE• EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS
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6 Jan 2005--US Navy personnel from the aircraft carrierUSS Abraham Lincoln load food, water,
and other supplies onto a US Navy Seahawk helicopter at Banda Aceh.
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HOMELAND SECURITY• SEA-BASED BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
(BMD)COMBATING TERRORISM• PORT SECURITY• PROTECTION OF CRITICAL
INSTALLATIONS/FACILITIES ON THE COAST• COUNTER NARCOTICS (DRUGS)• COUNTER ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION• COUNTER SMUGGLING OF WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION (WMD)• COMBATING PIRACY• COUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
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ENFORCEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TREATIES
• COMBATING TRANSNATIONAL MARITIME TERRORISM
• ENFORCEMENT OF UNSCR’S RESOLUTIONS• COMBATING INTERNATIONAL PIRACY• ENSURING FREEDOM OF
NAVIGATION/OVERFLIGHT• COMBATING ILLICIT ARMS TRADE• COUNTER PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD)• PREVENTING ILLICIT SMUGGLING OF HUMANS
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COMBATING TRANSNATIONAL MARITIME TERRORISM
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COMBATING INTERNATIONAL PIRACY
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COMBATING PROLIFERATIONOF WMD
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PREVENTING ILLICITSMUGGLING OF HUMANS
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ENSURING FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION AND OVERFLIGHT
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SUPPORT OF THE COUNTRY‘S FOREIGN POLICY
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NAVAL POTENTIAL VS. NAVAL INFLUENCE
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• COOPERATIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY• COERCIVE (OR “GUNBOAT”) NAVAL
DIPLOMACY • CONFLICT PREVENTION• SETTLING MARITIME BORDER
DISPUTES
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COOPERATIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY
• ROUTINE NAVAL PRESENCE• OPERATIONAL DEPLOYMENTS• EXERCISES/MANEUVERS• PORT VISITS ROUTINE OPERATIONALDIPLOMATIC• SHOW OF FLAG
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COERCIVE NAVAL DIPLOMACY
• THREAT OF USING FORCE• SHOW OF FORCE• PREEMPTIVE DEPLOYMENT• NAVAL DEMONSTRATION• RAIDS• BOMBARDMENTS OF THE
COAST
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EMPLOYMENT OF NAVAL FORCES IN CONFLICT
PREVENTION
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EMPLOYMENT OF NAVAL FORCES IN SETTLING MARITIME
BORDER DISPUTES
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SUPPORT OF MILITARY-/THEATER STRATEGY
• SEA-BASED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
• CONVENTIONAL DETERRENCE• BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE• SECURITY COOPERATION
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SUPPORT OF INSURGENCY OR COUNTERINSURGENCY (COIN)
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SUPPORT OF PEACE OPERATIONS
• PEACE-KEEPING OPERATIONS (PKO)
• PEACE-ENFORCEMENT OPERATIONS (PEO)
• EXPANDED PKO/PEO• PEACE-BUILDING (PB)• PEACE-MAKING
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Employment of Naval Forces in Support of Peace Operations
Type ConflictPrevention
Peace Keeping Operations (PKO)
Peace Enforcement Operations (PEO)
Peace Building (PB) Peace Making
Objectives Support of non-military actions aimed to prevent occurrence, escalation, conflict, and its resumption
•Monitoring / facilitating implementation of the agreement to cease hostilities•Support diplomatic efforts to reach long-term settlement
Use of military force or threat of its use to compel compliance with resolutions / sanctions designed to maintain / restore peace / order
Support of non-military efforts aimed to strengthen / rebuild governmental infrastructure and institutions in order to avoid resumption of hostilities
Support of actions aimed to end a dispute and resolve the underlying causes that led to it
Legal Basis UN Charter, Chapter VI UN Charter, Chapter VII
Use of Force Only in self-defense Prepared for combat
Tasks •Provide early warning•Coastal surveillance / patrolling•Preventative Deployment•Sanctions / embargoes
•Coastal surveillance / patrolling•Harbor defense / protection•Escort of merchant shipping•Maritime intercept operations (MIO)•Protection of shore facilities / installations•Protection of offshore oil / gas facilities•Defensive mining•Mine countermeasures (MCM)•Monitor / enforce / EEZ•Sea search and rescue•Port visits•Providing neutral site for negotiations•Logistical support for friendly forces ashore
•Threat of use of maritime forces•Blockade•Shore bombardment•Amphibious landings•Raids• Logistical support for friendly forces ashore
•Supervise cease-fire or truce•Protection of humanitarian aid and delivery•Secure bases for friendly land forces•Support withdrawal of friendly land forces• Logistical support for friendly forces ashore
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MULTINATIONAL TASK FORCE(MTF) OF THE UN INTERIMFORCE IN LEBANON (UNIFIL)
48 NM5,000 SQ NM
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THE NAVIES AND HIGH-INTENSITY CONVENTIONAL WAR
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NATURE OF WAR
• REFERS TO THOSE CONSTANT, UNIVERSAL, AND INHERENT QUALITIES THAT ULTIMATELY DEFINE WAR THROUGHOUT THE AGES
• THE NATURE OF WAR NEVER CHANGES—IT IS TIMELESS.
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NATURE OF WAR AND ITS MAIN FEATURES:
• DOMINANT ROLE OF POLICY AND STRATEGY
• VIOLENCE• HOSTILITY/HATRED• BLOODSHED• SUFFERING• IRRATIONALITY
• UNPREDICTABILITY• UNCERTAINTY (“FOG
OF WAR”)• FRICTION• FEAR• DANGER• ACCIDENTS• CHANCE• LUCK
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CHARACTER OF WAR
• CHARACTER OF WAR REFERS TO THOSE TRANSITORY, CIRCUMSTANTIAL, AND ADAPTIVE FEATURES THAT ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF WARFARE THROUGHOUT HISTORY
• IN CONTRAST TO ITS NATURE, THE CHARACTER OF WAR IS EVER-CHANGING.
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CHARACTER OF WAR AT SEA IS AFFECTED BY:
• DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
• DOMESTIC POLITICS• ECONOMIC CONDITIONS• DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES• IDEOLOGY• MEDIA/PUBLIC OPINION
• ADVANCES IN SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
• INFLUENCE OF NAVAL THEORETICIANS
• CHANGES IN THE CHARACTER OF WAR ON LAND
• INTERNATIONAL LAW OF THE ARMED CONFLICT
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DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
• FRENCH REVOLUTIONARY WARS (1792-1802) AND NAPOLEONIC WARS (1803-1815)
• WORLD WAR I• WORLD WAR II• COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN
1991• THE RISE OF PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF
CHINA (PRC).
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INFLUENCE OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES ON NAVAL
WARFARE
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CHARACTERISTICS OF NAVAL WARFARE
• ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE UNIQUENESS OF NAVAL PLATFORMS AND THEIR WEAPONS/SENSORS AND THE FEATURES OF THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THEY OPERATE.
• .
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• THE OBJECTIVES OF NAVAL WARFARE ARE PREDOMINANTLY PHYSICAL IN THEIR CONTENT
• OFFENSIVE VS. DEFENSE (CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ’S VIEWS ON DEFENSE AND WAR AT SEA)
• CLAUSEWITZIAN CONCEPT OF POINT OF CULMINATION AND WAR AT SEA
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• SEA IS COMMON TO ALL BELLIGERENTS AND NEUTRALS
• AT SEA, THE INTERESTS OF THE BELLIGERENTS AND NEUTRALS ARE INTERWOVEN
• THE SEA IS A “HIGHWAY”—IT BELONGS TO NO ONE
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• PHYSICAL SPACE ON LAND IS USUALLY MORE LIMITED THAN AT SEA/OCEAN
• GROUND FORCES ARE MORE TIED TO A SPECIFIC PLACES THAN NAVAL FORCES ARE
• THEIR MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE MOVEMENT OF NAVAL FORCES
• THERE ARE GREAT DIFFICULTIES IN ENSURING COVERTNESS OF MOVEMENT OF ONE`S NAVAL FORCES
• IT IS USUALLY MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SURPRISE AT SEA THAN ON LAND
• NAVAL WARFARE TEND TO BE MORE DECISIVE
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• GROUND FORCES ARE ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY IN CONTACT WITH THE ENEMY AND NAVAL FORCES ARE NOT
• NORMALLY, THE NAVIES EMPLOY ALL THE AVAILABLE FORCES (THE EXCEPTION CAN BE LARGE AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS)
• NAVAL FORCES CANNOT BE QUICKLY RECONSTITUTED—IT TAKES VERY LONG TIME TO BUILD OR EVEN REPAIR AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER, LARGE SURFACE COMBATANT AND SUBMARINE.
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ROLE OF THE NAVIES• WAR AT SEA IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF WAR AS
WHOLE; THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME OF WAR IS ON LAND—IT IS THERE WHERE THE HUMANS LIVE
• THERE WERE ONLY FEW EXAMPLES OF PURELY NAVAL WARS (ATHENS VS. SYRACUSE IN 413 BC; DEFEAT OF THE SPANISH ARMADA IN 1588; THE FIRST ANGLO-DUTCH WAR IN 1652-1654)
• THE MAIN ROLE OF A NAVY IS TO CREATE PREREQUISITES FOR THE ULTIMATE SUCCESS OF FRIENDLY FORCES ON LAND.
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OBJECTIVES OF NAVAL WARFARE
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OBJECTIVES OF NAVAL WARFARE
01-GA-1021-1
OBJECTIVES
ESTABLISHING/MAINTAINING
AND EXPANDING
BASING/DEPLOYMENT
AREA CONTROL
STRONGER SIDE
SEA CONTROL
CHOKE POINTCONTROL
ESTABLISHING/MAINTAINING
AND EXPANDING
BASING/DEPLOYMENT
AREA CONTROL
SEA DENIAL
SCALEWEAKER SIDE
OPERATIONAL
STRATEGICOR
OPERATIONAL
OPERATIONAL
CHOKE POINTCONTROL DENIAL
DESTROYING/WEAKENING THE ENEMY’S/PRESERVING FRIENDLY MILITARY- ECONOMIC POTENTIAL AT SEA
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RELATIVITY OF SEA CONTROL
PHYSICAL SPACE
OPEN OCEAN
PERIPHERAL (MARGINAL) SEAS
ENCLOSED SEAS
SEMI-ENCLOSED SEAS
INSHORE WATERS
JMO-01-GA-0810-2
DURATION• PERMANENT CONTROL
• TEMPORARY CONTROL
DEGREE• ABSOLUTE CONTROL
(SEA MASTERY)
• LIMITED (“CONDITIONAL” OR “WORKING”) CONTROL
• DISPUTED (CONTESTED) CONTROL
PHYSICAL SCOPE• GENERAL CONTROL
• LOCAL CONTROL
• COMBINED GENERAL- LOCAL CONTROL
PHYSICAL MEDIUM• CONTROL OF THE
SURFACE
• CONTROL OF THE SUBSURFACE
• CONTROL OF THE AIR(SPACE)
LITT
OR
AL W
ATER
SN
ARR
OW
SEAS
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STRUGGLE FOR INFORMATION SUPERIORITY/DENIAL
• WILL BE CONDUCTED CONCURRENTLY WITH STRUGGLE FOR SEA CONTROL/SEA DENIAL
• IT IS HIGHLY DYNAMIC• LIKE SEA CONTROL, CONTROL OF
CYBERSPACE WILL BE RARELY ABSOLUTE BUT GENERAL AND/LOCAL
• TEMPORARY RATHER THAN PERMANENT • IT WILL BE CONDUCTED DURING THE ENTIRE
WAR
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THE FUTURE OF FUNDAMENTAL NAVAL WARFARE AREAS
• SURFACE WARFARE• SUBMARINE WARFARE• NAVAL AIR WARFARE• NAVAL ANTI-AIR WARFARE• MINE WARFARE (MIW)• ANTI-SUBMARINE WARFARE (ASW)• AMPHIBIOUS WARFARE (AW)• NAVAL SPECIAL WARFARE
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IS AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT ON THE OPPOSED SHORE STILL
A VIABLE OPTION?
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I also predict that large-scale amphibious operations…will never occur again.
Gen. Omar Bradley
Chairman JCS 19 October 1949
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• BUT WE HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT WHERE IT WOULD BE NECESSARY OR SENSIBLE TO LAUNCH ANOTHER MAJOR AMPHIBIOUS LANDING AGAIN –ESPECIALLY AS ADVANCES IN ANTI-SHIP SYSTEMS KEEP PUSHING THE POTENTIAL LAUNCH POINT FURTHER FROM SHORE. ON A MORE BASIC LEVEL, IN THE 21ST CENTURY, WHAT KIND OF AMPHIBIOUS CAPABILITY DO WE REALLY NEED TO DEAL WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS, AND THEN HOW MUCH?Navy League Sea-Air-Space Exposition : Remarks as Delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Gaylord Convention Center, National Harbor, Maryland, Monday, May 03, 2010
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IS THERE A FUTURE FOR MARITIMETRADE WARFARE??
• ATTACK ON MARITIME TRADE• DEFENSE & PROTECTION OF
MARITIME TRADE
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SHIPS IN PORTS/ANCHORAGESCARGO LOADING
/OFFLOADINGFACILITIES
ELEMENTS OF MARITIME TRADE
PPT-01-VEGO-64(JMP)041101
PORTS /ANCHORAGES
CARGO STORAGEFACILITIES
SHIPPING AT SEA
ROAD TRAFFICRAILROAD/ ROADJUNCTIONS
SHIP REPAIRFACILITIES
INTERNAL WATERWAY
TRAFFIC
RAILTRAFFIC
SHIPYARDS
ELEMENTS
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IS CONVOYING STILL AN EFFECTIVE METHOD OF
DEFENSE & PROTECTION OF MERCHANT/MILITARY
SHIPPING?
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ENDURING IMPORTANCE OF THE HUMAN FACTOR IN NAVAL
WARFARE
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SCIENCE VS. ART OF NAVAL WARFARE
• THE CONDUCT OF NAVAL WARFARE IS AN ART NOT A SCIENCE
• STUDY OF NAVAL WARFARE AND DEVELOPMENT OF NAVAL THEORIES IS A SCIENCE
• THE APPLICATION OF KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTNADING OF NAVAL WARFARE IS AN ART.
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QUESTIONS?