the millennium project american council for the un university planning committee meeting february...

The Millennium ProjectAmerican Council for the UN University

Planning Committee Meeting

February 14-15, 2001Smithsonian Institution

Washington, D.C.

AGENDA Wednesday 14 February 2001

• Recent accomplishments

• Briefing on recent research• Peer review of Challenges• State of the Future Index (SOFI)• Future Issues of Science and Technology• Analysis of the UN Summit Millennium Speeches• Environmental Crime & the International Criminal Court• Global Partnership for Sustainable Development• Environmental Security Scanning• Futures Research Methods V.2

• Node Reports

Agenda Thursday 15 February 2001

• Project Information System Improvements

• Project issues

• Objectives for 2001-2002 Program

• Nodes’ plans for next year

• Public Relations, Marketing, and Fund Raising Plans

• Review, action items, and conclusions

• Adjourn

2000-2001 Financial Sponsors

Deloitte & Touche General Motors Hughes Space and Communications United Nations University U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute U.S. Department of Energy

In Kind Support

Funding SupportFunding Support

Smithsonian Institution The Futures Group International

Recent Accomplishments

• State of the Future makes FS’s best picks for 2000

• Challenges for Humanity UN, US Senate distribution

• Translations of Project’s reports

• UN Strategy Unit

• Science Attaches in planning process

• Explorations on Transnational Crime strategy

• Articles (AEPI, Foresight, FRQ, TF&SC)

• Streaming Video

• Talks (China, Argentina, Japan, UNEP, Finland, AEPI, Forum 2000, WANGO)

• Project sales

SOF@M (total: 154; WFS: 70; FGI: 50)5,291.21

37.5%

SOF '99 (total: 84; WFS: 20)3,541.52

25.1%

SOF '98 (total: 5)188.45

1.3%

SOF '97 (total: 2)39.90

0.3%

SOF video (total: 21; WFS: 20)630.50

4.5%

FRM (total: 134; WFS: 70)4,410.12

31.3%

Structure of sales by itemsTotal Sales in 2000: $14,101.70

Sales in the year 2000

corporations (total: 74; FGI: 50)2,638.7518.7%

resellers (total: 45)1,894.63

13.4%

individuals (total: 35)1,674.8511.9%

universities (total: 27)1,066.52

7.6%NGOs (total: 18)

664.804.7%

research centers (total: 8)344.702.4%

government (total: 6)287.352.0%

IO (total: 5)241.401.7%

libraries (total: 2)97.000.7%

WFS 5,191.7036.8%

Structure of buyers

Peer Review of Challenges

• New Questionnaire used with brief overviews of each of the 15 challenges

• On-going process until next publication of SOF

• 21 Reviews received thus far

• Nodes, MP staff, listserv selected reviewers

• General improvements but overall descriptions, actions, and regional views are well received

• Selected reviewers for more complete versions

Purpose: Obtain a broad range of international perspectives on the emerging issues and forces that are likely to influence the future of science and technology programs and their management

Future Issues of Science and Technology Study

Three-Year Sequence

Year 1: What are the important future issues ?

Year 2: What are the implications for management?

Year 3: Create scenarios to make choices explicit.

Year 1 Study Flow - Steering Committee for the Study-Science Attachés Meeting

What are the most important S&T questions?Suggested actions/developments/answers

S&T Panel Round 2

S&T Panel Round 1

Rate questions and actionsAdditional suggestionsNational Priorities

Review additionsDesign Round-2

- Science Attachés Meeting- Steering Committee for the Study- MP Nodes’ Meetings- MP Planning Committee

Europe (50)34.0%

North America (35)23.8%

Middle East and N. Africa (16)10.9%

South Asia (23)15.6%

East and Pacific Asia (18)12.2%

Latin America (5)3.4%

Future Issues of S&TRegional Demographics of participants in Round-1

Total participants: 147

S&T management and/or policy 45.1%

Publishing and communications 5.6%Applied research

3.5%

Basic scientific research 18.8%

Futures Research21.5%

Education 3.5%

IO2.1%

Future Issues of S&TParticipation by professional orientation in Round-1

The Panel Was Highly Engaged 71 new questions were suggested (distilled to 19)

210 new actions/ developments/answers were suggested to address the original 14 questions

Separate discussions were conducted on the Millennium Project’s Internet listserve <[email protected]>

People who were late submitted anyway in hope their responses would be included

Requests were made to use the material in other ways

Future Issues of

Science & Technology

Public knowledge andunderstanding of S&T

Create NewOpportunities

Non-ScienceCulture

Government Decision Makers

Private CorporateDecision Makers

Avoid Problems

The first seven most highly rated questions:

1. What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly improve the human condition? ( 4.47 ; 4.04)

13. What potential catastrophes could change the world within the next 25 years which science might help to avoid? (4.14 ; 3.70)

2. What future applications of science or scientific research have the greatest potential for danger to human survival? (4.08; 3.62)

5. What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries? (4.06 ; 3.59)

3. What are the principal factors that will influence science over the next 25 years? (3.93 ; 3.71)

6. What emerging technologies are likely to have the most positive economic impact over the next 25 years? (3.92 ; 3.96)

4. What are some seminal, key, or profound scientific developments that might occur during the next 25 years? (3.86 ; 3.63)

(Complete list on the hand-out)

Ratings of the Questions(importance globally, to my country)

Most highly rated developments/actions/answers:

1C.Commercial availability of a cheap, efficient, environmentally benign, non-nuclear fission and non-fossil fuel means of generating base load electricity, competitive in price with today's fossil fuels.

1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread diseases and epidemics.

1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in agriculture by 75%.

1H. Climate change - understanding and solutions.

1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable water from salt or brackish sources.

Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/answers: Developing strong, lightweight materials that do not corrode, are resistant to wear, and easy to

recycle. Developing efficient, inexpensive (e.g. photochemical) process to produce hydrogen from water. Nanofiltering devices for water purification and recycling in households. Developing methods for enlarging human creativity. Reaching deeper understanding of the quantum foundations of physics.

What challenges can science pursue whose resolution would significantly improve the human condition?

What catastrophes could change the world within the next 25 years which science might help avoid?


13A. Global epidemics, plagues, naturally caused or by human action such as an adverse genetic mutation.

13F. Economic meltdown - a major worldwide depression.

13G. Magnitude 9 or greater earthquake.

13C. Global war. (But not an old fashioned East vs. West war with battle lines; rather a global terrorist war and rise in global crime as a form of war seems more likely)

13H. Breakdown of law and order worldwide.

Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/answers: Criminal terrorism. Major unprecedented migration of poor people to the affluent world. Fragmentation wars among some nations. Climate change induced crop failures, floods, droughts, sea level rise, and/or extinctions. Major changes in the intensity and direction of ocean currents, leading to abrupt climate changes.

What future applications of science or scientific research have the greatest potential for danger to human survival?Most highly rated developments/actions/answers:

2D. Accidentally - or intentionally - released genetically modified organisms that have serious adverse consequences for the biosphere.

2H. Use of biotechnology to build new kinds of biological weapons of mass destruction.

2G. Nanotechnology to build stealthy new means of killing large numbers of people.

2C. Intelligent Nanotechnology evolves beyond human control.

2E. Dissemination of information on potentially dangerous technologies via Internet.

Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/answers:

Loss of biodiversity from exclusionary marketing for genetically altered, patented varieties.

Widespread availability of tailored psychotropes (e.g. programmed dream pills)

Human cloning

Technological development of the less developed world to the consumption levels of the US.

Use of Internet to promote drug use and other socially undesirable actions.


5F. Education and training.

5B. Very low cost, multi-purpose, portable computer communications useful to the poor majority to begin to enter the education, economic, and health systems beyond their village.

5E. A new economics that effectively rewards innovation and work but distributes wealth more evenly.

5C. More flexible exchange programs that allow reciprocal residency and internships in research labs of other countries.

5A. Use of collaboratories for tele-science so that people can work as if they were in one lab even though they are in different locations around the world.


Breaking down the new iron curtain between North and South.

If the pressure of overpopulation ends, many more countries will be able to afford (basic) science (like China, India, Brazil or Indonesia, etc.).

Develop cassette colleges for developing world.

Access to the chaotic jumble of fact, misinformation and lies on the Internet by all.

Development of an effective all language simultaneous voice translation system.

What will help bridge the S&T gap between developed and developing countries?


3F. Education and training of the science workforce.

3C. Economic contraction or collapse. (Science, more than other enterprises, depends on human beings having a relatively secure base to work from.)

3I. Scientific information exchange and institutional collaborations.

3A. Publicly visible scientific disasters or achievements significantly affecting public perspectives and thus funding.

3B. Public understanding of the relationship of science and technology to the emerging knowledge economy.


Increased corporate control of scientific research.

Applications of breakthroughs of one discipline in other disciplines.

Change in focus of interest (and funding) moving away from computing etc. to biological sciences.

International sharing of major infrastructure.

What are the principal factors that will influence science over the next 25 years?


6E. New, clean and inexpensive energy technologies

6A. Medicines derived from the knowledge founded in the Human Genome Project.

6D. Nanotechnologies.

6F. Genetically engineered products.

6C. Increased bandwidth capacity for multi-media communications for all Internet users at affordable price.


Precision agriculture.

Much improved medical diagnostics and relatively inexpensive personal wearable and implant cable health monitors.

New materials such as high-temperature superconductors and Buckyballs, biocompatible implants.

Acceptable systems of energy generation by nuclear fission using advances in information technology for safety, operation, and monitoring; and control of the nuclear waste stream by means such as transmutation, with acceptable means of waste storage.

What emerging technologies are likely to have the most positive economic impact over the next 25

years?

What are some seminal, key, or profound scientific developments that might occur during the next 25

years?Most highly rated developments/actions/answers:

4H. Fusion or some other forms of cheap, abundant power with minimal adverse environmental consequences.

4D. Discovery of the underlying principle, "the final theory" that links quantum physics and relativity to explain the range of particles and forces that make up the universe.

4F. Computers that achieve awareness and can evolve.

4M. Capacity to build things cheaply and reliably by moving individual atoms and molecules.

4G. Self-replicating nano-robots or biochemical structures.

Examples of Newly Suggested developments/actions/answers: Remote microprobes that can be implanted in, or circulated through, living organisms or deployed in extreme

environments, such as the depth of the Earth's crust to collect chemical and physical data continuously and relatively inexpensively.

Human-computer symbiotics, such as implantable brain boosters, e.g. electro-bio-chemical processors with integrated random-access memories and telecommunication circuits.

Capacity to simulate and experiment with the brain's neurological functional modules, to diagnose disorders and provide therapy for example Parkinson's, ALS etc.

Reducing the cost of solar cell manufacture to less than $0.50 per watt.

Priorities 4.1 What would be the best investment in basic science for your country's future?

Education

Biotechnology, Biology, Genetics

Computers, Information Systems

Environment, Ecology

Chemistry

Physics, including Plasma and High Energy

Energy

Advanced material science

Medicine, Health, life sciences

Space Technology, Space Station

Priorities4.2 What would be the best investment in applied science for your country's future?


Energy

Education





Manufacturing, Productivity

Nanotechnology

Industry Cooperative Research

Priorities4.3 What would be the best investment in

technology for your country's future? Energy


Communications, Internet, Mobile

Nanotechnology


Education

Electronics



Manufacturing, Productivity

Priorities4.4 What are your country's current

S&T priorities?






Military


Transportation

Agriculture and Food

Priorities4.5 What are the major S&T challenges important to your

country that would (or do already) benefit from an international collaborative, interdisciplinary approach?



Education, Knowledge Transfer, S&T Marshall Plan

Space Technology, Space Station


Bi-lateral and multi-lateral programs


Electronics


Additional 71 questions suggested in Round 1 distilled to 19 by staff, then rated by the Steering Committee

• How can science become a more important part of the decision process?

• What scientific developments could have the greatest impact on sustainability on earth even beyond 25 years?

• How can inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary research be strengthened and accelerated?

• How can the social & economic impact of scientific research be evaluated?

• How can funding of S&T be directed toward research which more directly addresses the global basic needs of humanity?

Second Science Attachés Meeting• Attachés appreciated involvement in the study

• Review categories in the National Priorities section

• Current Priorities may have been misinterpreted; ask what priorities are increasing in importance

• Gov S&T budget data available OECD, UNESCO

• Add nuclear conflict to answers under question 13.

• Intro Rd 2 with short status report of the study

• Go for more depth: shortening lists of 14 and 19

• Make the full text of Round 1 responses available

2. Use

UN Millennium Summit Speeches

• 144 heads of State or Government• 6 Deputy Ministers,• 21 other Ministers• 5 Vice-Presidents• 1 Crown Price• 10 chairpersons of delegations• 10 observers• 2 from civil society (Conferences of Presiding Officers

of the National Parliaments and the Millennium Forum)

The largest gathering of world leaders in history assembled at the United Nations September 6-9, 2000 to assess the challenges of the 21st century.


• 63 Key Concepts Grouped into 6 Themes– Globalization: inevitable, Internet all, be careful– Rich-poor gap: open markets, create partnerships– Peace and conflict: Rapid response and prevention– Human rights: Implement Int’l agreements– UN reform: expand SC, empower ECOSOC– Environment: Kyoto, nuclear waste, basis of SD

• Little ideological rancor• Finland: We know the facts. We know what we want. We know

how to get it. All we need is the will to do it.


Globalization

Peace

Conflict

Poverty/3rd world

R-P Gap

Human Rights

UN reform/SC

Environment

Sustainable Dev.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Asia

Pacific Asia Sub-Sah. Africa

Percentage of countries that mentioned the topic

GlobalizationPeace

Conflict Poverty/3rd world

R-P GapHuman RightsUN reform/SC

EnvironmentSustainable Dev.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Europe

Middle East

Latin America

Asia

Pacific Asia Sub-Sah. Africa

Frequency the topic was mentioned by the regions


Topic Stressed by Various Countries

Peace, Romania

HIV/AIDS, Botswana

Small, Dev Countr, Malasia

Poverty, Peru

Peacekeeping, Belgium

Transnational Crime, Peru

Future, Guatamala

SC, Australia

Global Warming, Chile

Arms, small, traffic, Burundi

Culture/values, Iraq

Envirnment, Palau

Conflict, Burundi

Human Rughts, Lithuania

Humanitarian, Gineau

Governance, Barbados

Debt, Grenada

% of Topics Mentioned by the Country

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Comparison Between Richer and Poorer Countries

Peace

Human Rights

Global Warming

Conflict

Poverty/3rd world

SC

Security

Development

Environment

peacekeeping

Nuclear

Regional

War

Future

Justice

R/P Gap

Debt

Small/Developing Ctr

% of Topics Mentioned

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Rich

Poor

Topics Most Often Mentioned by Poorer Countries

Peace

Poverty/3rd world

Global Warming

Conflict

Small/Developing Ctr

Security

SC

Human Rights

Democratization

Environment

Development

Debt

Justice

Regional

R-P Gap


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Topics most often mentioned by Richer Countries

Peace

Human Rights

Global Warming

Conflict

Poverty/3rd world

SC

Security

Development

Environment

peacekeeping

Nuclear

Regional

War

Future

Justice


0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Environmental Crimes in Military Actions

and the International Criminal Court

• ICC: 139 signatories and 28 ratifications

• Documents, UN Interviews, Scenario Comments

• ICC action on mil/env-crimes extremely unlikely since environment is law on the ICC priorities and must meet all of these conditions:

• most serious to the international community

• specifically intended, not “collateral damage”

• cause “long-term and severe damage to the natural environment” and “clearly excessive” to anticipated military gains

• no legal basis in “criminal’s country to act (Complementary)

Potential Env-Crimes in Military Actions and the ICC• Country X would not send troops unless they were exempt

from any ICC prosecution

• A secret nuclear waste storage area is damaged

• Prosecute the officer in charge of the biological weapons storage area

• The major source of greenhouse gases refused to reduce its emissions

• Country X which has not ratified the ICC statute says it will not cooperate with a case against one of its military officers

Environmental Security ScanningEnvironmental Security ScanningSome patterns and questionsSome patterns and questions

Sovereignty - UN early warning response teams, ICC and war crimes, genetically modified foods and organisms, environmental conditions that affect public health, “Bioagent Chips” deployed to detect biological warfare attacks. Where should the nation-state end and the UN begin to address environmental problems?

Worsening environment - forests, resources (fish, wet lands , water), greenhouse gases, and interaction of these. With water tables falling in all continents, and ethnic tensions on the rise, water pollution caused by one group affecting another could escalate more seriously than in the past. Putin abolishes Russia’s environmental protection agency.

Environmental Accounting - $ value of environmental conditions

Environmental Ministers: “... we can ensure environmental security through early warning...” raising environmental-security on global agenda.

Futures Research Methods V.2• Introduction & Overview Environmental Scanning

• Participatory Methods Structural Analysis

• Delphi Systems and Modeling

• Decision Modeling Scenario Construction

• Trend Impact Analysis Cross-Impact Analysis

• Statistical Modeling Simulation-Gaming

• Futures Wheel Normative Forecasting

• Technological Sequence Analysis

• Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis

• Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Intuition

• Method Frontiers and Integration

Additional Chapters for FRM Version 2.0

• Science and Technology Roadmapping

• Field Anomaly Relaxation

• Godet’s “tool box” (Scenario, MIMAC, etc)

• Text Mining

• Summary of Non-linear Techniques: Chaos Modeling

• Software additions for methods

• SOFI

• Others

Discussion of Objectives for the 2001-2002 Program

• Publish State of the Future at the Millennium V 2.0• Publish Futures Research Methods CD-RO V 2.0• Rd 2 and report on Future Issues of S&T• Yr 2 Future Issues of S&T: Management implications• Complete Env-Crime & the ICC• Complete UN Millennium Summit Analysis• Partnership for Sustainable Development report• Complete SOFI paper, journal submission, and Delphi SOFI

indicators for relative weights• Continue work on data mining for futures, Starlight, others• Nodes’ plans for next year

the millennium project american council for the un university planning committee meeting february...

Documents

technology study slide

future of science

wango project sales

important future issues

study science attachs

emerging issues

new questions

plans review