THE MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS & POST 2015 FRAMEWORK-AN INDIAN

EXPERIENCEPRESENTED

BY DR. SHIKTA SINGH

ASST. PROFESSOR KSOM,KIIT UNIVERSITY

BHUBANESWAR

“The eight Millennium Development Goals were a breakthrough. Together, we created a blueprint for ending extreme poverty. We defined achievable targets and timetables.”

LAYOUT

Introduction Learning from the MDGs: India’s Experience The Unfulfilled Agenda MDG & Growth Lessons for the SDGs MDG to SDG- Leaving no one behind Concerns & Policy Suggestion Conclusion

INTRODUCTION

What are the Millennium Development Goals?

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight goals to be achieved by 2015 that respond to the world's main development challenges.The MDGs are drawn from the actions and targets contained in the Millennium Declaration that was adopted by 189 nations-and signed by 147 heads of state and governments during the UN Millennium Summit in September 2000. MDGs helped in bringing out a much needed focus and pressure on basic development issues, which in turn led the governments at national and sub national levels to do better planning and implement more intensive policies and programs.

INTRODUCTION The eight (8) Goals are as under:

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability Goal 8: Develop Global Partnership for Development

India’s MDG framework is based on UNDG’s MDG 2003 framework, and it includes all the eight goals, 12 out of the 18 Targets (Targets 1 to 11 & 18) which are relevant for India and related 35 indicators.

Some of the targets and indicators were dropped and modified due to non-availability of sufficiently reliable data

INDIA’S MDG JOURNEY – A MIXED BAG

Progress has been mixedalready achieved the target of halving the poverty head count ratio, but hunger remains a tough challenge in India, not much progress in reducing income inequality.Moderately on track, while considering the targets of achieving universal education,Eliminated gender inequality in primary and secondary education,Has to strive more to reduce the maternal mortality to reach the desired level. Achieved the required trend reversal in the fight against HIV/ AIDS,Ensured the achievement of target of drinking water facility but lagging behind in achieving the desired target for ensuring sanitation facility is lagging behind.Reducing child mortality as the sharp decline in the recent years in Infant Mortality and Under Five Mortality are likely to take us very near to the target.Trend reversal has achieved in the fight against Malaria and TB, though there was some fluctuations in between,Measures have taken to reverse the loss of environmental resources, progress has been achieved in improving the environment by improving the coverage of forest area, protected areas, reducing CFC emission.

MDGS ATTAINMENT IN INDIA HAS BEEN MIXEDMDG Goals

MDG Target Indicators Progress / Status Target by 2015

Goal 1 Eradicate Extreme Poverty& Hunger

Target 1 : Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

1. Poverty Head Count Ratio.(% below national poverty line)

2. Poverty Gap Ratio

3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

21.9% by 2011-12

Rural PGR 9.64 in 04-05 to 5.05 in 11-12 and Urban PGR from 6.08 to 2.70Rural : decline from 8% in 93-94 to 7.1% in 11-12Urban : Decline from 9.6% in 93-94 to 9.1% in 11-12

23.5%

50% decline

Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

5. Prevalence of underweight children under three years of age

From 43% in 98-99 to 40% in 05-06Expected to reduce to 33% by 2015, falling short

26%

GOAL 2Achieve universal primary education

Target 3: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary education

6. Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education7. Proportion of people starting Grade 1 who reach Grade 5 (Survival rate)8. Literacy Rate of 15-24 years olds (Youth literacy rate)

88.08% in 2013-1478.08 %in 2009-10 to 86.05%in 2011-1261.9% to 86.14% during 1991-2011, trend shows likely to reach 93.38% by 2015

100%

GOAL 3Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women

Target 4 Eliminate gender disparity in primary, secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education, no later than 2015

9. Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education

10. Ratio of literate women to men,15-24 years old

11. Share of women in wage employment in the non- agricultural sector

12.Proportion of seats held by women in National Parliament.

Primary: 0 .76 to 1.01 from 90-91 to 11-12Secondary: 0.6 to 0.93 Tertiary: 0.54 to 0.88From 67.07 ( 49.3% / 73.5%) to 90.88(81.8% / 90%) over 1991-2011

19.3% likely to be 22.28% by 2015.

Less than 12.24% of seats of Indian Parliament. India ranks 115 in the world

111100%

50%

50%

TABLE SHOWING MDG GOALS, TARGETS & ACHIEVEMENTSMDG Goals

MDG Target Indicators Progress / Status Target by 2015

Goal 4Reduce Child Mortality

Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five Mortality Rate

13. Under- Five Mortality Rate ( no of birth per 1000 live birth)14. Infant Mortality Rate (no of death under 1 year per 1000 live birth)

15. Proportion of one year old children immunized against measles

From 125(1990) to 49(2013) per 1000 live birth

From 80(1990) to 40(2013) per 1000 live birth

74% coverage in 2009, likely to achieve 89% in 2015

42 death per 1000 live birth27 death per 1000 live birth100 % coverage

Goal 5Improve Maternal Health

Target 6: Reduce by three quarters between 1990 and 2015, the Maternal Morality Ratio

16.Maternal Mortality Ratio (death per 1 lakh live birth)17.Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

167 In 2011-13 from 437 in 90-91, likely to be 140 by 2015

From 33% in 92-93 to 87.1% in 2013

109 per 1 lakh live birth100%

Goal 6Combat HIV/AIDS , Malaria and other diseases

Target 7:Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

TARGET 8: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of Malaria and other major diseases

18. HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15-24 years 19. Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate 19A. Condom use at last high risk sex 19B. Percentage of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS

21.Prevalence and death rates associated with Malaria 22.Proportion of population in Malaria risk areas using effective Malaria prevention and treatment measures (Percentage of population covered under use of residuary spray in high risk areas) 23.Prevalence and death rates associated with Tuberculosis 24.Proportion of Tuberculosis cases detected and cured under DOTS

0.32% in 2012-13 from 0.89% in 2005

5.2% in 2005-06

74% In 2010 from 51.9% in 200132.9% in 2006 from 22.2% in 2001

Annual Parasite Incidence (per 1000 population) declined to 0.88 in 2014 from 3.29 in 1995.

Prevalence – 211 in 2013 from 465 in 1990Mortality – 19 in 2013 from 38 in 1990

TABLE SHOWING MDG GOALS, TARGETS & ACHIEVEMENTS

MDG Goals

MDG Target Indicators Progress / Status Target by 2015

Goal 7Ensure Environment Sustainability

Target 9:Integrate the principle of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources

Target10: Halve, by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

Target : 11By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

25. Proportion of land area covered by forest 26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area 27. Energy use per unit of GDP( Rupee) 28. Carbon Dioxide emission per capita and consumption of Ozone -depleting Chlorofluoro Carbons (ODP tons) 29. Proportion of the Households using solid fuels 30.Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban and rural 31.Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural

32.Slum population as percentage of urban population

21.23% of the geographic area of the country, increase of 5871 sq km in 2011-134.83% of total geographical area0.1518 KWh in 2012-131.58 MT CO2 – Increasing Trend290.733 tones ODP in 2010 – Declining trend

67.3%All India – 87.9%(2012) - AchievedRural – 86.9%(2012) - AchievedUrban - 90.1%(2012 – likely to be achievedAll India - 43.4%(2012) – Unlikely to be metRural – 59.4% (2012) - Unlikely to be metUrban – 8.8%(2012) - Likely to be met

17.36%(2011)

All India – 82.42%Rural - 78.39% Urban – 93.63%All India – 38.09%Rural – 46.77%Urban – 14.18%

Goal 8Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Target 8In co-operation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communication

47. Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population 48A. Internet subscribers per 100 population 48B. Personal computers per 100 population

76%(2014)

20.83%(2014)NA

A MIXED BAG OF GLORIES AND PITFALL India is moderately successful in reducing poverty and likely to miss target by 3.5 percentage point. The Poverty head Count Ratio( based on Tendulkar Committee estimate of national poverty line) is 21.9% BY 2011-12, estimated to reach 18.6 % by 2015. the share of poorest 20% in national consumption was always less than 10% during 1993-2012, and over the years, a declining trend has been observed. The malnourished and underweight children’s percentage came down from 52% (in 1990) to 43 % (in 1998-99) and expected to reach 40% by 2005-06, and likely to be 33% by 2015 (below the target of 26%)Although, at the all India level PGR declined substantially in both rural and urban areas during 2004-5 to 2011-12, but scenario vary from State to State

CONTD..

The Poverty head Count Ratio is based on Tendulkar Committee estimate of national poverty line.

The poverty line as defined by Tendulkar Committee is itself a much debated issue and do not reflect the actual measure of poverty.

Most of the uplifted people above the national poverty line are on threshold and runs the risk of pushed below with little disturbance

Marginalized section like SC /ST, single women household, are most vulnerable.

21.9

29.43 31.65 31.98 32.59 33.74 34.67 36.89 36.9639.93

05

1015202530354045

Perc

enta

ge

Axis Title

PHCR in states ( States with above national level estimate)2011-12

PHCR

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 1993-94 2004-05 2009-10 2011-12Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural

8.0 9.6 7.3 9.5 6.97 9.41 7.1 9.1

CONTD..

Education is an essential tool for breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty

Universal enrolment but survival rate to grade 5 is still cause of worry

But children are learning little in school Level of learning in Mathematics and English is very poor. As per ASER 2014, of all students enrolled in St V half can

not read read at St II level Close to half of all children will finish eight years of schooling but still not have learned basic skills in arithmetic.

Inequality in learning outcomes are high.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Perc

enta

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Trend in Gross Enrollment Ratio

BOYS

GIRLS

TOTAL

73.5

84.290

94.81

61.9

76.486.1

93.38

49.3

67.7

81.892.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

19991 2000 2011 Likely Achvin 2015

Perc

enta

ge

Axis Title

Youth(15-24) Literacy Rtae(%)

Gender Gap

Female

Male

Total

A MIXED BAG OF GLORIES AND PITFALL..

Gender inequality remains high. Literacy rates among women fall behind that of men, thus evidencing women‘s poorer participation in learning outcomes and opportunities.

CONTD… India is moderately or almost nearly on track however ‘participation of women in employment and decision making remains less and disparity is not likely to eliminate by 2015’. Country’s Gender Parity Index (GPI) for Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in primary and secondary education has risen and at 1.03 in 2013-14, but achieving GPI in tertiary education still remains a challenge which is 0.89 in 2012-13.Violence against women is a major concern and do not reflect the progress made under other indicators.Instances of violence against women has an astonishing and grim variety to it – with acid throwing, domestic violence stemming out of dowry, rape, harassment and an assortment of others

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Inde

x Val

ue

Trend in Gender Parity Index(GPI)

PrimaryEducation(I-V)

SecondaryEducation(I - )

HigherEducation(18 to23 yrs) 0-1.77.98.815.229.636.942.549.359.970.8

0 -3.3 4.4 3.6 8.119.8 24.8 28 32.3 38.8

206.6

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Axis P

erce

ntag

eTitle

Incidence and Rate of Crime against Women(Percentage change from 2002)

IncidenceRate

GROWTH & ATTAINMENT OF MDG

Economic growth is critical to attainment of most of MDGs but not sufficient

Growth has tendency to reduce poverty but Income elasticity of poverty has fallen

Definitive view on poverty reduction is hostage to data uncertainties

The pattern of growth and sectoral composition matters for the pace and quality of poverty reduction.

Though consumption poverty has declined , calorie poverty has not declined.

Expansion of non-farm growth is more closely linked to urban than agricultural growth which explains rapid decrease in urban poverty than rural poverty

India’s nonfarm growth, slow by international standard is driven by urban growth, reduction levels and state and local factors.

THE EMPLOYMENT- POVERTY NEXUS

Employment is one of the main instrumentality which leads to poverty reduction through growth

Sectorial composition of economic growth, the choice and level of technology and effective functioning of the labor market also influence the rate of growth of employment

Structurally, growth to be pro poor, employment intensity sector must lead to expansion in the outputs directly or indirectly induced.

While the number of people moving into non farm employment is growing, the quality of nonfarm employment is falling

BEYOND GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION…. In contrast to steady reduction in poverty India’s record in Human

Development is mixed. Variation in human development indicators are enormous across

states. Increase in income level does not necessarily lead to consumption

of MDG Goods & Services due to other factors like: Social customs and barrier Lack of education and awareness Prohibitive cost due to lack of infrastructure Low level and slow growth in public expenditures particularly on

health and education For Growth to be Inclusive redistribution and channelization of

the benefits of growth, through social protection schemes, entitlement program – both to reduce poverty directly and to allow people to benefit in other human development.

CRITICISM ON MDGS

MDGs have often been criticized for being a top-down development agenda. North-dominated.represent a reductionist view of developmentThey are too limited in scopeToo focused on social sectorstheir emphasis on quantification is excessive;they omit fundamental objectives contained in the Millennium Declarationinadequately address the complexity of the dimensions that are included (e.g. gender equality and the quality of freedom)

MDG TO SDG – LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND

Originated from The Open Working Group (OWG) deliberations which was mandated by the Rio+20outcome document ‘The Future We Want’

Triple bottom line approach to human wellbeing Economic development Social inclusion Environment sustainability

MDG TO SDG – LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND

It is critically important to keep the key elements of SDGs in perspective

The synthesis report of the Secretary General on the post-2015 agenda, “The road to dignity: ending poverty, transforming all lives and protecting the planet” was published in December 2014. The report presents six elements for delivering on the SDGs which “… would help frame and reinforce the universal, integrated and transformative nature of a sustainable development agenda …”. The six elements are:•Dignity: to end poverty and fight inequalities•People: to ensure healthy lives, knowledge, and the inclusion of women and children•Prosperity: to grow a strong, inclusive, and transformative economy•Planet: to protect our ecosystems for all societies and our children•Justice: to promote safe and peaceful societies, and strong institutions •Partnership: to catalyse global solidarity for sustainable development

THE 17 SDGS

CRITICAL ELEMENTS FOR SUCCESS OF THE SDGS

The Agenda: Inclusive, transformative, integrated and universalHow the ‘universal’ SDG will be rearticulated at the national level reflecting the contextual priorities?- Still an issue of debate

Country-led implementation, Common But Differentiated Responsibility

A revitalized Global Partnership: An area much criticized during MDG implementation

Follow-up and review processes will be voluntary and will respect policy space and priorities of the countries

Global review will primarily be based on national official data sources – country reports and thematic reports

LESSONS FOR THE SDGS New areas of SDGs (e.g. cities and human settlements,

ecosystem and biodiversity) will call for greater effort and resources at the country level

Much more ambition and effort is required on the part of the national, regional and international community.

It is important to sensitize national policies in line with SDGs!

An important issue with respect to SDGs is how their implementation will be financed.

Public finance (domestic resource mobilization) and foreign aid are expected to continue to be central to supporting the implementation of the SDGs, but they will not be adequate.

Other potential sources of financing include: resources generated from the private sector (including

remittances) crackdown on illicit financial flows and corruption trade and market access foreign direct investment

LESSONS FOR THE SDGS Concerns have been raised about the sheer breadth and ambition of these goals, the feasibility of monitoring them and tracking actual progress within countries.

If monitoring of 8 MDGs, 20 targets and 60 indicators have posed serious challenges at the national level, how about 17 SDGs, 169 targets and over 300 indicators?

Capacity of national statistics office and other government agencies will be tested

Accessibility, quality and timeliness of data will be critical. To fix a reference year will be a challenge: 2010?; 2015?

Rapid technological progress should be put into effective use

Attainment of SDGs will require a strong and effective institutional mechanism involving all stakeholders including public representatives (central and local), government (executive & bureaucracy), private sector, civil society, knowledge community, and development partners.

SDG AND INDIA

India along with middle income countries like BRICSAM will be main leaders

India’s developmental agenda and priorities are in alignment with SDGs

India successfully lobbied for Common But Differentiated Responsibilities

ROAD AHEAD FOR INDIA

Meeting the SDGs will require addressing wide range of challenges : Broad based Inclusive Economic growth

Reviving the manufacturing sector(Make In India, Skill Development) Focus on non farm sector and new thrust on new dimension of agriculture Encouraging small and medium enterprises Financial Inclusion(Jan Dhan Yojona, Mudra Bank) Social Security measures( Pension and Insurance schemes for poor at nominal premium, Crop

insurance schemes for farmers) Focus on Human Development – Need to increase spending on health and education Strong Design and effective delivery

Effective targeting and delivery under schemes like NREGA Improving the Public Distribution System Reduction of subsidy and pilferages by direct transfer of benefits under welfare schemes.

Resilient and Sustainable Infrastructure All weather memorable roads, electrification of all villages and hamlet, telecommunications Development of national waterway system Massive expansion renewable energy like Hydel, Wind, Solar and nuclear in place of thermal power

Macro economic Policy With need for massive financing, participation of private sector is most With easing of inflationary pressure with softening of commodity prices, need for a expansionary

and counter-cyclical fiscal policy with increasing public spending

CONCLUSION: MDG despite of many criticisms & fallacies has brought the focus of the

govt. ,policy makers & other stakeholders w.r.t issues like poverty, hunger,gender disparity etc.

So, SDG will carry on the unfinished agenda of MDG. SDG to shift its focus to human well being & sustainability while striving to meet

the other developmental roles Hence, India’s developmental agenda are in congruence with SDG.

“Between now and 2015, we must make sure that promises made become promises kept. The consequences of doing otherwise are profound: death, illness and despair, needless suffering, lost opportunities for millions upon millions of people.”

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