The Migrant and the Household:Understanding China’s Floating Population

C. Cindy Fan

Department of Geography, UCLA

July 11, 2007

Level of urbanization

1982 21%

2006 43%

2015 > 50%

Rural-urban migration – main source of urban growth

Volume of intercounty migration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 census 2000 census

Mill

ion

Interprovincial

Intraprovincial 41%

59%33%

67%

The 30 largest interprovincial migration flows, 1990 census.

The 30 largest interprovincial migration flows, 2000 census.

Volume of intercountypermanent and temporary migration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990 census 2000 census

Mill

ion

PermanentTemporary 26%

74%

54%

46%

Floating population (stock measure)

• individuals not living at the place of registration (hukou location)

Early 1980s 30 million

Early to mid-1990s 70-80 million

2005 150 million

2015 200 million (projected)

2025 250 million (projected)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_National_Stadium

http://china.zjol.com.cn/05china/system/2007/03/11/008235873.shtml

The Hukou Paradigm

“We will accelerate the establishment of a social safety net targeted at rural migrant workers in cities …”

-- Premier Wen Jiabao, March 5, 2007

Hukou – a sample of reforms and changes

1997 – hukou reforms in small towns and selected cities (stable job; legal place to stay)

1998 – new guidelines, including family reunification

2003 – directive affirming migrants’ rights to work

2007 – MPS report (legal place to stay)

*** Autonomy of city governments to establish own criteria ***

Household as a unit of analysis

Wallace (2002)• rapid social changes• more women in labor force• large informal economy

Conventional household strategy approach• economic reasoning

Non-economic factors• keeping family intact• power relations, gender hierarchy

New Economics of Migration theory

Permanent settlement paradigm

“There is nothing so permanent as a temporary migrant”

International migration

• non-permanent and circular migration increased

• the best of both worlds

• keeping family at the origin

Security

Countryside

• Land• House• Low cost of living• Social security

City

• Income opportunities

Household strategy

• Division of labor

• Economic security

• Social security and obligations

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

5-9 10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Mig

rati

on

rat

e (p

er 1

00 p

op

ula

tio

n) 1990: female

1990: male

2000: female

2000: male

Fig. 5.1. Gender differentials in age-specific interprovincial migration rate, 1990 and 2000 censuses.

Social security and obligations

• Maintain close ties

• Obligations to parents

• Supporting children

Will rural migrants stay in the city or return to the countryside?

Mixed evidence

Sichuan and Anhui Study

• 1995

• 2005

Division of labor Economic security Social securityCity Countryside

1995

30 year-old, husband, migrant work since 1985

Wife farms and takes care of 4 and 2 year-olds

Remittances for agricultural input and living expenses; returns for harvesting

Returns for Spring Festival yearly

200540 year-old, husband

Wife farms and takes care of 14 and 12 year-olds

Remittances for old-age security

Returns for Spring Festival yearly; installed telephone in 1997, calls every week; remittances for children's education (must finish senior secondary)

Household 1

1995:

“Migrant work is not a long-term solution. After several years I’ll return.”

2005:

“I cannot take the children with me [to the city]. School is too expensive there. … I live at the construction site. If my wife and children go there, we will have to rent a place … they stay home mainly because of financial consideration. … Another reason why we don’t settle down in the city is my work is unpredictable. … When there is no new construction work, everybody will have to return.”

Seasonal migration and circularity

“I began migrant work in 1983. After getting married in

1984, I stayed home to farm for two years. In 1987, I worked in a coal mine. Then, between 1988 and 1990, I stayed home to farm and build a house. I began migrant work again in 1991. Every year, I returned home before the Spring Festival and helped with planting before going out again. In 2004, I stayed home to farm. My wife went out that year.”

Household 2

Division of labor Economic security Social securityCity Countryside

1995

22 year-old, husband, migrant work since 1989

Wife takes care of infant; grandparents farm

Remittances to build house

Returns for Spring Festival yearly

2005

32 year-old, husband, and 30 year-old, wife

Grandparents farm and take care of 11-year old child

Remittances for future use

Return only once every 3-4 years; installed telephone in 2002

Household 3

Division of labor Economic security Social securityCity Countryside

1995Husband, since 1983

Wife farms and takes care of two young children

Remittances for agricultural input and to build house; returns for planting

Returns for Spring Festival yearly

2005Husband and wife, in different cities None Land leased to others

Earnings for daughters' education in boarding school

1995:

“ Dagong is great, but it is not a long-term solution. People like us … I have a wife, children, and a house; I will eventually return to farm.”

2005:

“Our whole lives, we will be peasants (nongmin). Our hukou is in the village, our land is in the village. … Cities are, of course, great. But we cannot afford to think about that … maybe in another 8 or 10 years. First, we must earn enough money for our daughters’ education. … If they are admitted into top universities and have their hukou moved there, then they may be considered urban people.”

Household 4

Division of labor Economic security Social securityCity Countryside

199543 year-old, husband Wife farms

Remittances to build house; returns during busy farming season

Returns for Spring Festival yearly

2005 Son-in-law

husband; wife; 25 year-old daughter with infant

Farming; including land leased from others

Takes care of grandchild if daughter joins son-in-law

25 year-old daughter, 2005:

“ I am a village person (nongcunren). I don’t know if I am considered a peasant (nongmin). I don’t know how to farm, and I don’t like farming. My parents are aging, so I may have to learn to farm. In the future, I will probably live in the village to take care of my parents. … I like quiet places; there is less pollution in the countryside.”

Conclusion

• Household as a unit of analysis

• Household strategy

• Migrant work as a way of life

• a long-term, temporary solution

• Will rural migrants settle in the city?

• economic and social security

• Permanent settlement vs. circular migration