The mess of measuring sustainability in

mixed crop-livestock systems

Peter Thorne (ILRI)

AAAS Symposium on Indicators of Agricultural Sustainability,

San Jose, California

13 February 2015

Towards a practicable solution for evaluating sustainable

intensification options

Sustainability: A working definition

[Sustainable development is] development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

Brundtland Commission, 1987

“… not compromising the needs

of future generations”

Time frames

If effects are not expressed for years, decades or generations, direct, contemporary measurements are not possible

Alternatives:

Proxy indicators

Consolidate metrics with predictive simulation models

Unintended consequences

Merton’s law: outcomes diverge from those intended by the original, purposeful action

Consequences can be positive or negative but divergence is inevitable

Adaptability and robustness of alternative courses of action

Degree of sustainability

Moving targets

Solutions based on current situations might not work with future scenarios

Population density

Mean temperatures

Precipitation and rainfall distribution

Mitigation measures

Can we identify environmental (and other) sweet spots

Sustainability in the context of SI

Intensification: an increase in the output : input ratio of a system / domain. Simple!

To add sustainable to intensification an innovation has to:

deliver an intensification benefit

be initially adoptable

Not compromise well-being in the short-term (resulting in either dis-adoption or damage)

At least maintain equilibrium across various sustainability domains and scales in the longer term

Why do we need sustainability

indicators?

Comparing the implications for sustainability of alternative intensification pathways

Monitoring the impacts on sustainability of evolutionary changes in farming systems (hopefully along intensification pathways)

To strengthen the evidence base for our research activities having delivered what we originally claimed they would

Why do we have a mess?

Google: agriculture AND "sustainability indicators" OR natural resources AND "sustainability indicators”

What do we do about it?

Identify what is needed

practically applicable suite of indicators

assessment at multiple scales …

… and in multiple dimensions

Series of five broader consultations

Literature review (indicators and metrics)

Integrated framework for sustainability assessment

Literature review

Identify the most commonly used indicators

Pull out examples of metrics that have been used to assess these indicators

Begin to establish, more formally, the differentiation of metrics and indicators:

indicators are generated from metrics

metrics are measurable, indicators are interpretable

most indicators require more than one metric.

Initial insights from the lit’ review

A rich array of indicators exists

Varying degrees of consensus

Some domains are better covered than others

low medium high

Productivity 14 3 7 24

Economic 5 4 2 11

Human 5 2 1 8

Environmental 5 5 4 14

Social 6 7 3 16

SMARTness

Applies to both indicators and metrics

Essential if we are to achieve our aim of practicability

Metrics Indicators

Specific ✔

Measurable ✔

Appropriate ✔ ✔

Relevant ✔ ✔

Time bound ✔

Elements of an indicator framework

Multi-dimensional

economic, human, social, environmental, productivity-related

Multi-scale

plot, farm, household, community, zone of influence (region, national, ?)

Account for interactions amongst scales and dimensions

Allow at least some evaluation of trade-offs

Example dimension indicatorsProduction related Plot Household Community

Number of households ✔

Number of plots ✔

Land area under production ✔ ✔ ✔

Biomass production ✔ ✔ ✔

Input / resource use efficiency ✔ ✔

Feed resource availability ✔

Livestock population / density ✔ ✔

Crop / livestock diversification ✔

Rationale: Levels of production drive the economic sustainability of production systems. Thus, Higher production levels are, more likely to be sustainable over longer periods of time. For more sustainable communities, equity is likely to be more important than absolute production levels.

Building indicators from metrics

Plot Household Community

Designation Crop yield(Yhu)

Crop yield(HHYhu)

Variability in crop yield

Derivation Measured ∑(Yhu1 … YhuNplots) σ(HHYHu)

Designation Crop residue yield(YCr)

Crop residue yield Variability in crop residue yield

Derivation Measured ∑(YCr1 … YCrNplots) σ(HHYCr)

Designation Fodder / forage yield(Yff)

Forage yield Variability in forage yield

Derivation Measured ∑(Yff1 … YffNplots) σ(HHYff)

Aggregation / weighting?

Biomass production

What next?

Finalise literature view

Complete draft framework (based on literature review and expert discussions)

Test framework against available data sources:

Africa RISING

CSISA (Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia)

Data from other USAID investments (ILSSI, SIIL etc.)

Collaboratively with wider partners

Revise and document for implementation

Think widely

Easy to get bogged down in detail

No practicably applicable framework will cover all aspects of sustainability

We need:

A framework that will work for 90 per cent of cases

Enough insight to recognise when we are operating in one of the other 10 per cent

Our exogenous, science-based perspectives might not be the only valid take on sustainability

Indigenous perceptions from the

Ethiopian Highlands

Both farmers and experts interviewed

Farmers view sustainability from a broader, livelihoods perspective whereas experts take a technology-oriented or project-specific view

Focus on social indicators limited in both groups

Farmers perceptions reflect timescales that vary across wealth classes; poorest are short term survivalists, rich take a longer view

Acknowledgements

All those who have participated in the discussions since March 2014 that have got us this far

Sieglinde Snapp (MSU) for helping to drive some of the more concrete outputs described here

Alex Smith for the literature review

Valentine Gandi (IWMI) for the indigenous perspectives

Jerry Glover for his repeated injections of energy into the process

Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation

africa-rising.net

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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