the meritocracy trap - london school of economics · 5/8/2019 · the meritocracy trap...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Meritocracy Trap #LSEMorishima
Daniel Markovits
Guido Calabresi Professor of Law at Yale Law School and Founding Director of the Center for the Study of Private Law
Chair: Oriana Bandiera
Sir Anthony Atkinson Chair in Economics and Director of STICERD
Hosted by STICERD
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TheMeritocracyTrapDanielMarkovits
STICERDMorishimaLectureLondonSchoolofEconomics
Wednesday8May,2019
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PartI
Facts
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!!!
!One!!
The!Working!Rich!! !
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!!!!!
A!Familiar!Tale!of!Rising!Inequality!!!!!!!!!
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Top!1%!Income!Share!in!the!United!States!
!Source:!!The!New!York!Times,!25!October!2011!
!
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Similar, although more muted, patterns appear in
other countries.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Top 1 Percent Income Shares, 1900-2014
Indonesia
Japan
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
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!!!!!
But!the!details!are!less!familiar.!! !
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!
First:!A!wealth!problem,!not!a!poverty!problem!
! !
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
IncomeShare
PovertyRate
IncomepovertyConsumptionpovertyTop1%incomeshare
Sources:TheWorldTopIncomesDatabase,Top1%IncomeShare- IncludingCapitalGains;U.S.CensusBureau,HistoricalPoverty Tables- People,Table2;Table1inMeyer,BruceandSullivan,JamesX.2012."WinningtheWar:PovertyfromtheGreatSocietytotheGreatRecession." BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,Fall2012,pp.133-200.
Top 1PercentIncomeShareandPovertyRates,1960-2015
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Ratioofaverageincomeof1%tomedianincome
Ratioofmedianincometoaverageincomeofbottom20%
RatiosofHigh,Middle,andLowIncomesOver Time
Sources:DatafromtheWorldTopIncomesDatabase, Post- taxnationalincome/equal- splitadults/Average/Adults/constant 2015localcurrency,https://wid.world/country/usa/.
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Source: Data from the World Top Incomes Database, Post-tax national income / equal-split adults / Average / Adults / constant2015 local currency, https:// wid.world/ country/ usa/.
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!!
!!!!!!!!!
Second:!Not!the!leisure/class!but!the!working/rich!! !
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!!!!!
The!rich!work!harder!than!they!used!to!and!increasingly!harder!than!the!rest!
! !
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!
!Source:!!Kuhn!and!Lozano,!The!Expanding!Work!Week?!!Understanding!Trends!in!Long!Work!Hours!among!US!Men,!1979R2006,!Journal!of!Labor!Economics!vo.!26!no.!2!311R343,!318!(2008)!
! !
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!!!!!!
The!trend!runs!all!the!way!up!the!income!scale!!!!!
!
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45
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51
53
55
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
AVER
AGEWEEKLYHO
URSWORK
ED
99-100 90-99 60-90 0-60 Income Rank
AverageWeeklyHoursWorkedbyIncomeRank
Sources: The data in the figure come from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, which includes information about incomes and usual hours worked from the Federal Census and the American Community Survey. Data for 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 come from the census. Annual data from 2001 onward come from the American Community Survey. All observations in the sample used to construct this figure are (1) full- time employed, (2) not self- employed, (3) male, and (4) age 25–64.
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!!!
!!!!!
The!rich!also!work!remuneratively;!!they!owe!increasing!shares!of!their!incomes!to!labor.!
!
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0
1
2
3
4
5
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Top1%:CoreLabortoCoreCapitalIncomeRatio
Source:Piketty, Saez,&Zucman,"DistributionalNationalAccounts:MethodsandEstimatesfortheUnitedStates,"AppendixII,"Detaileddistributional series,"TablesD2b,D2c,"CompositionofFiscalIncomeShares"(lastupdatedDec.15,2016).
Note:Corelaborincomeiswagesandpensions;corecapitalincomeisdividendsplusinterestplusrents.
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0
1
2
3
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Top0.1%:CoreLabortoCoreCapitalIncomeRatio
Source:Piketty, Saez,&Zucman,"DistributionalNationalAccounts:MethodsandEstimatesfortheUnitedStates,"AppendixII,"Detaileddistributional series,"TablesD2b,D2c,"CompositionofFiscalIncomeShares"(lastupdatedDec.15,2016).
Note:Corelaborincomeiswagesandpensions;corecapitalincomeisdividendsplusinterestplusrents.
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!!!!!
Rising&top&labor&incomes&in&context&
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U.S.LaborIncomeShare,1947-2014
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Top!1%!Income!Share!in!the!United!States!
!Source:!!The!New!York!Times,!25!October!2011!
!
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Rising inequality is predominantly caused not by a shift of income from labor to capital (recall the earlier slide) . . . . . . but rather by a shift of income away from one (mid-skilled) kind of labor and in favor of another (super-skilled) kind of labor.
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!!!!
Economic!maldistribution!concerns!not!poverty!but!wealth.!
!!
The!rich!are!not!rentiers,!but!rather!a!superordinate/working/class.!
! !
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!!!
!Two!!
Making!the!Modern!Elite!! !
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EnrichmentExpendituresonChildren,1972-2006
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AnnualPer-PupilExpendituresbySchoolTypeType MedianHouseholdIncome Per-PupilExpendituresPublicSchoolNationalAverage ≅$55,000 ≅$12,000PoorState(Mississippi) ≅$40,000 ≅$8,000RichState(Connecticut) ≅$75,000 ≅$18,500Super-RichDistrict(Scarsdale) ≅$240,000 ≅$27,000ElitePrivate(Forbestop20) 80%earnover$200,000 ≅$75,000
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Source: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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!!!!!
Differences!in!investment!produce!dramatic!differences!in!childhood!achievement!
!!!!!!
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Ratioofaverageincomeof1%tomedianincome
Ratioofmedianincometoaverageincomeofbottom20%
RatiosofHigh,Middle,andLowIncomesOver Time
Sources:DatafromtheWorldTopIncomesDatabase, Post- taxnationalincome/equal- splitadults/Average/Adults/constant 2015localcurrency,https://wid.world/country/usa/.
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!
Source:!!Zachary!Goldfarb,!These!Four!Charts!Show!the!SAT!Favors!Rich,!Educated!Families,!Washington!Post,!March!5,!2014,!at! http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/05/theseNfourNchartsNshowNhowNtheNsatNfavorsNtheNrichNeducatedNfamilies/! and! Anthony! P.! Carnevale! and! Jeff! Strohl,! “How! Increasing! College! Access! Is! Increasing! Inequality,! and!What!to!Do!about!It,”!in!Rewarding!Strivers,!ed.!Richard!D.!Kahlenberg!(New!York:!The!Century!Foundation!Press,!2010)!
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!!!
!!
!These!effects!combine!to!produce!a!skewed!elite.!
!!!!!!!
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CollegeAttendancebyParentalIncomeRank
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CollegeQualitybyParentalIncomeRank
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StudentBodySkewtoWealthbyCollegeSelectivity
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13.97%
14.52%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
% Ivy Plus students with parents in bottom 50%income
% Ivy Plus students with parents in top 1%income
% Ivy Plus Students by Parental Income
Source: Online Data Table 6 for NBER Working Paper 23618, Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility by Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan (2017), available at http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data/
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15.89%
16.54%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
% HYPS students with parents in bottom 60%income
% HYPS students with parents in top 1% income
% Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, and Yale Students by Parental Income
Source: Online Data Table 2 for NBER Working Paper 23618, Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility by Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan (2017), available at http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/data/
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AMeritocraticInheritance
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Ifoneweretotakethedifferencebetweentheresourcesdevotedtotrainingatypicalchildfroma1percenthouseholdandatypicalchild
fromamiddleclass(notapoor)household...
andinvestthemoney,eachyear,intheS&P500,tobegiventothechildasabequestonthedeathoftheparents...
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...thismeritocraticinheritancewouldamounttoroughly
$10millionperchild.
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Three
GloomyandGlossyJobs
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LaborMarketPolarizationHollowingoutofmid-skilledjobs,toproduceaneconomywithopportunitiesandgainsconcentratedamongthelow-skilledandthesuper-skilled
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!!!!!
Finance'as'a'case'study'!
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HomeMortgageFinance
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FinanceinGeneral
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GDPShare,EmploymentShare,andRelativeIncomeandEducationforFinance,1947-2005
Source: Finance includes insurance but excludes real estate. GDP share is computed as the ratio of nominal value added by the finance sector to the nominal GDP of the United States. Data from Annual Industrial Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Relative education is computed as the share of hours worked by employees with at least a college degree in the financial sector minus the corresponding share of hours in the rest of the private sector. Data from March CPS. The figure is inspired by Philippon and Reshef, “Wages and Human Capital in the U.S. Finance Industry: 1909– 2006,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, no. 4 (November 2012): 1558, Figure 1 and 1561, Figure 2.
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!!!!!
The!pattern!generalizes!across!the!economy!
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EarningsSegmentationbyEducationLevel
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GloomyJobs
• Lowwages
• Nodiscretion
• Noworkplacetrainingoropportunitiesforpromotion
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VeblenversusKeynes• Utopianvisionofuniversalleisure
• Leisureversusidleness
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GlossyJobs
• Intenselaboreffort
• Constantevaluationandstrain
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• Eliteworkersasrentiersoftheirownhumancapital• Self-exploitationandself-alienation
• Afetishforskill
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PartII
Values
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Four
AMoralityPlay
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!
!
!
!
Traditional!arguments!for!economic!redistribution!emphasized:!
!
!
!
!
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!
Humanitarian!concern!for!the!poor!.!.!.!!!
!
!
!
.!.!.!but!today,!poverty!is!much!less!of!a!problem!than!it!was!when!there!was!much!greater!equality!overall!
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!
Exploitation!of!labor!by!the!leisure!class.!.!.!!!
!
!
!
.!.!.!but!the!new!superordinate!working!class!are!not!rentiers;!they!work!harder!than!the!rest!
!
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!
!
!
!
Policy!will!not!follow!where!morality!cannot!lead.!
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CumulativeRealHouseholdIncomeGrowth,1967-2012
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AverageTaxRatesbyIncomeGroup,1960-2004
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Five
ComprehensiveInequalityand
SocialSolidarity
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!!!!
!!
Work!! !
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!• Income,!education!and!hours!worked!
!• Workplaces!segregated!by!skill!
!! Top!banks!recruit!exclusive!at!Ivy!League,!Stanford,!MIT,!Williams!
! Three!quarters!of!partners!at!top!firms!attended!top!10!law!schools!
!• Workplace!culture!and!skill!
!• Unemployment!risk!by!education!
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!!!!!
!Family!
! !
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!Assortative!Mating!
!!
! The!share!of!couples!in!which!both!partners!possess!a!college!degree!has!increased!8Gfold!since!1960.!!
! Today,!only!a!quarter!of!highest!earning!couples!include!even!one!partner!without!a!college!degree.!
! !
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Marriage!and!Childbirth!!
• Women!with!a!BA!are!half!as!likely!to!divorce!within!first!decade!of!marriage!as!those!without.!!
• Women!with!highGschool!education!or!less!bear!over!50%!of!children!outside!of!marriage;!women!with!a!college!education!or!more!bear!3%!of!children!outside!of!marriage.!!(In!1970,!out!of!marriage!births!accounted!for!less!than!10%!of!births!of!women!of!all!education!levels.)!
!• 90%!of!children!in!the!bestGeducated!5%!of!US!
zip!codes!grow!up!in!twoGparent!households.!!
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!!!!!
Geography!! !
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!!!!!In!1960!college!educated!Americans!spread!relatively!
evenly!across!cities!! !
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• By!2000,!there!existed!62!metro!areas!in!which!less!than!17%!of!adults!were!college!graduates!and!32!metro!areas!in!which!more!than!34%!were!college!graduates.!!
• The!college!graduate!isolation!index!doubled!between!1970!and!2000.!
!• In!the!most!elite!5%!of!zip!codes!(by!education!
and!income)!65%!of!adults!hold!college!degrees.!!• 75%!of!Harvard/Yale/Princeton!graduates!live!in!
zip!codes!in!the!top!fifth!by!eliteness.!
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!!!!!
Health!! !
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Rates!of!Prominent!Ailments!by!Income!and!Education!
!!
!
!Source:!!Stanford!Center!on!Poverty!and!Inequality!! !
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Six
MeritocracyandPoliticalInequality
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DistortionsoftheDemocraticProcess
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!!!!!
Economic!Inequality!and!Mass!Politics!! !
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Inequality!and!Democratic!Responsiveness:!!I!!
!!
Source:!!Gilens,!Martin,!“Inequality!and!Democratic!Responsiveness,”!69!Public'Opinion'Quarterly!778D796!(2005)! !
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Inequality!and!Democratic!Responsiveness:!!II!
!!Source:!!Larry!Bartels,!Unequal'Democracy!253D4!(2010)!
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!!!!
Economic!Inequality!!and!!
The!Politics!of!Influence!! !
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!!
!!
In!1970,!3%!of!retiring!Congresspeople!became!lobbyists.!
!!
Today,!over!30%!do.!!!!!! !
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++
Wealth+Defense+as+Politics+++The'swollen'fortune,'by'the'mere'fact'of'its'size,'acquires'qualities'which'differentiate'it'in'kind'as'well'as'degree'from'what'is'possessed'by'men'of'relatively'small'means.'+ + + + + + + + + +
—Theodore+Roosevelt+++++ +
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DistortionsofthePoliticalValues
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EliteQuietism
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!Source:!!Ray!Fisman,!Shachar!Kariv,!Pamela!Jakiela,!and!Daniel!Markovits,!“The!Distributional!Preferences!of!an!Elite,”!Science!349,!aab0096!(2015).!DOI:!10.1126/science.aab0096!
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MassAnger
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Thedarkpsychologyofjustifieddisadvantage
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Seven
SnowballInequality
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!!!!!What!is!the!relationship!between:!
!• training!concentration,!and!
!• !skill!fetishism?!
! !
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!!
!!
The!conventional!view:!!
• skill!fetishism!causes!training!concentration!!
• the!cause!of!skill!fetishism!is!exogenous!technical!change!
! !
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!!!!This!one=way!causation!cannot!be!the!whole!story.!!
• The!agrarian!example!!
• The!same!lesson!applies!when!greatest!economic!resource!is!human!capital!
! !
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!!!A!better!view!involves!reciprocal!causation!!
• Technological!innovation!is!interested!and!induced!!
• Training!concentration!thus!causes!skill!fetishism!
!!!!
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!!!
!Eight!!
A!New!Aristocracy!
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Meritocracy
and
EqualityofOpportunity
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Meritocracywasinventedatmid-centuryexpresslytoopenuptheAmericanelite• PresidentKingmanBrewster,whobroughtmeritocracytoYale,calledhimself“an
intellectualinvestmentbanker”anddeclaredthathedid“notintenttopresideoverafinishingschoolonLongIslandSound.”
• Yale’snewadmissionstandardswere“astatement,really,aboutwhatleadershipwasgoingtobeinthecountryandwhereleadersweregoingtocomefrom.”
— InkyClark(KingmanBrewster’snewdirectorofadmissions)
• “Youwilllaugh,butitistruethataMexican-AmericanfromElPasoHighwithidenticalscoresontheachievementtest,andidenticallyardentrecommendationsfromtheheadmaster,hasabetterchanceofbeingadmittedtoYalethanJonathanEdwardstheSixteenthfromSaintPaul’sSchool.”
—WilliamF.Buckley,Jr.
• “You’retalkingaboutJewsandpublicschoolgraduatesasleaders.Lookaroundyouatthistable.TheseareAmerica’sleaders.TherearenoJewshere.Therearenopublicschoolgraduateshere.”
—AnonymousmemberoftheYaleCorporation
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MeritocracyWorkedasPlanned• InthefirstyearofthenewadmissionsregimeatYale,theshareofadmitteeswho
hailedfromalumnifamiliesfellbyhalfandYalerejectedthesonofitsbiggestdonor.
• ThemedianSAToftheYaleclassof1970wouldhavebeeninthe90thpercentilefortheclassof1961.
• Similardevelopmentsspreadthroughouttheelitebetween1950and1970
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Meritocracyfunctionsverydifferentlytoday
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Super-educatedchildrendominatethesuperordinateworkforce:
• Just7.3percentofworkerswithoutahighschooldegreeearn
morethanthemediancollegegraduate
• Just1.3percentofhigh-school-onlyeducatedworkers,andjust17.2percentofworkerswithaB.A.only,earnmorethanthemedianprofessionalschoolgraduate.
Childrenofsuperordinateworkersdominateeliteeducation.
• Recallthatimmenseachievementgapsbetweentherichandthemiddleclassinschools
• Recalltheimmenseskewtowardswealthamongstudentsatelitecollegesanduniversities
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Thepatternofelitedominanceoverthebestschoolsandjobsthus
reproducesitselfdownthroughthegenerations.
Meritocracy—firstembracedtopromoteequalityofopportunity—has
todaybecomethesinglegreatestobstacletoequalityofopportunity.
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MeritocratsandAristocrats
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Nine
WhatMightWeDo?
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Deepsocialandeconomicforcesdrivemeritocraticinequalityforwards.
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Butwherethedangeris,thesavingpowergrowsalso.Thesnowballmechanismrevealsthatrisinginequalityisnotinevitable.
• Nottechnologicaldeterminism
• Policiesthatdiffuseeducationandencouragemiddleclasslaborcanrevisethearcofinnovationandthrowthemotorthatnowdrivesinequalityforwardsintoreverse.
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Thetoughestproblemsarenottechnocraticbutpolitical.
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Evenresponsibleelitesarecapturedbymeritocracy’sallure—asortofideologicalStockholmsyndrome.
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Itdoesn’thelpthattheconventionalwisdomconceivesofredistributionasazero-orevennegative-sumgame
(ArthurOkun’sleakybuckets).
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Thismakeshigh-endinequalityespeciallydifficultto
unwind,asitappearsthatthecostsmustbeconcentratedinanarrow(andpowerful)elite.
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Nativistsandpopulistsfillthebreach—astodaytheyalonenamemeritocracy’scosts,anddignifythemasmoral
harms.
Decentpeoplearedrawntopopulismastheonlyshipthatevenacknowledgesthemeritocraticstorm.
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Butmeritocraticinequalitychangesthecalculusofredistribution.
Themeritocracytrapisagildedcagethatensnaresthe
richevenasitexcludestherest.
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Amoreequalworldwouldmakeeveryonebetteroff.
• Returnthemiddleclasstoincome,status,anddignity.
• Restoretheelite’sauthenticfreedom(andatapricethat,beingsorich,theycaneasilyaffordtobear).
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Youngpeople,includingmystudents,arebeginningto
understandthis—inarticulatelyanduncertainly,butwithanincreasinglypowerfulurgency.
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Toupdateanoldslogan:
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Theworkersoftheworld—working-and-middle-classandnowsuperordinateaswell—shouldunite.
Theyhavenothingtolosebuttheirchains,andawholeworldtowin.
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ThankYou
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The Meritocracy Trap #LSEMorishima
Daniel Markovits
Guido Calabresi Professor of Law at Yale Law School and Founding Director of the Center for the Study of Private Law
Chair: Oriana Bandiera
Sir Anthony Atkinson Chair in Economics and Director of STICERD
Hosted by STICERD