the mekong basin development planning process ton lennaerts cta basin development plan programme

**

The Mekong basin development planning process Ton LennaertsCTA Basin Development Plan Programme

JRP training 8 June 2012

18th Meeting of the Joint Committee29-30 September 2003Phnom Penh

The BDP Programme

A participatory, multi-sector and integrated planning process that is led by the MRC Member Countries and implemented at the regional, national and sub-basin levels

Background

The BDP Story Provides an overview of basin development planning since the Second World War

Many planning reports were produced but little water infrastructure got built in the Mekong basin compared to other river basins

In industrialized countries, the best projects were completed before societal values shifted and major emphasis was placed on achieving environmental objectives

As a result, there are strong pressures today on the Mekong countries to adopt a different development path to growth than industrial countries have taken

This is a path largely untrodden and a challenge for the BDP Programme

*Start of a new era of Mekong Cooperation:Cooperate in all fieldsbut not limited tohydropower, irrigation, fisheriesDevelopment of full potential of sustainable benefits for all Member Countries.....through formulation of a Basin Development Plan Prevent harmful effects on the environment and the ecologyEnabled by water utilization procedures and monitoring systems e.g. Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement of significant projectsThe 1995 Mekong AgreementThe Agreement is about cooperation on balancing basin development and protection. The BDP is a primary instrument for this cooperation

*Mekong development: meeting the needs, keeping the balance

Complex hydrology and limited investments in water management and infrastructure often correlates with widespread poverty around the world

Unique biodiversity and large fisheries on which millions of people in Mekong Basin depend

Much of the Mekong Basin remains among the poorest regions - malnutrition poses great challenges

Increasing demand for water resources development to reduce poverty and support an increasing population Storage

Development plans of LMB countries *

Drivers of the LMB countries deveIopment plansChinaCreated upstream storageInvestments in LMB (energy, agriculture, other)

Lao PDR GDP growth through hydro-electricity exports (example: Panama) example)(mitigation of climate change)

CambodiaGeneration and transmission of cheaper electricityExpansion and intensification of agriculture

Viet NamDeveloped most of its hydropower and irrigated agricultureManagement of saline intrusion and flood damage

BDP1 (2001-2006) set up the process

Started 6 years (!) after the signing of the 1995 Agreement It developed a participatory process, tools, strategic directions, and lists of non controversial projects

BDP2 (2007-2011) delivered the plan

Had to move beyond process: by 2007 water resources development was accelerating

Conducted a basin-wide cumulative impact assessment of the basin countries national plans, with and without consideration of climate change impacts (reported in 14 volumes)

Some characteristics of the process and examples of results are presented on the next slides

The assessment of basin-wide development scenarios

Balancing development and protection

Responsible Growth

Agreeing on an acceptable balanceUsing a basin-wide integrated assessment framework:

Basin-wide development scenarios assessed the cumulative environmental, social and economic impacts of national development plans and alternative perspectives

SEA of mainstream hydropower dams analyzed opportunities and risks

The MRC facilitated dialogue and negotiations on costs and benefits, and builds consensus on an acceptable balance between water resources development and protection

Three-year process; all stakeholders involved through meetings, surveys, workshops, conferences, forums, etc.

Scenarios considered*Foreseeable Future and Longer Term Future Scenarios were assessed with and without consideration of climate change impacts

Main features of considered scenariosScenarios are defined by the level of land and water resources development in the Mekong Basin, including irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial water supply and significant flood management measuresLevel of developments is derived from national plans, sector reviews and trendsInput data are reviewed and verified with the member countriesBL*

Assessment criteriaComprise 12 specific development objectives within economic, environmental and social spheresA total of 42 assessment indicators have been identified and assessed within the frameworkIn addition, equity is evaluatedScope of assessment is NOT to endorse specific projects

*

Assessment approachBased on the concept of IWRM that holds the promise of reconciling goals of economic efficiency, social equity, and environmental sustainabilityUsed transparent data sets, proven models and impact analytical tools and a multi-disciplinary expert teamStakeholder participation has been carried out along the whole process at sub-area, national and regional levelsThe scenarios were assessed on hydrological changes and results fed into the assessment of the transboundary economic, social and environmental impactsThe results were discussed at national level and broader stakeholderScenarios that are beneficial to all LMB countries and sustainable from a basin perspective, were considered as preferred scenarios

Scoping and formulationCollection of input dataModelling of hydrological changesAssessment of transboundary environmental, social and economic impactsEvaluation and discussion of preferred scenarios*

*Hydrological changes and physical impacts caused by interventions were assessed for their environmental and economic impacts and thence their social impacts

Each of the linkages will be taken into account in the assessment processIntegrated approach

The tools SWATIQQMIsis*

The Tools (2)GIS for spatial integration and quantitative assessment*Flooded areaWetlands

Chiang SeanChiang KhanVientianeMukdahanPaksePrek KdamTan ChauChau DocLuang PrabangKampong Luong*Nakhon PhanomStrungtengKratieFlow changes in the Mekong mainstream

Changes in river bed and bank erosionChiang SaenNong KhaiPakseStrungtengDeltaCause:Reduction of sediment entering to Mekong mainstreamAlluvialAlluvialBedrockBedrockNo major change in bedrock reachesSandbars from Nong Kai to Pakse are readily erodible and river bed may begin to fall within next 20 years Some sediment loss may occur immediately downstream of Kratie and changes in Delta will be visible in the long term, including coastal erosion

*

Changes in water qualityIn the longer term total agro-chemical use more or less triples compared to the present use.Water quality in the mainstream will deteriorate, but due to the increase in dry season flows and the rivers high self purifying capacity water quality will remain within standardsLocally, mainly in the Delta downstream of Phnom Penh, problems may emerge

Chart3

76.14186333.0526988487.52651781255.1391938

68.61132238.997264374.6118841126.50998

68.54064350.968975485.651221147.6803

626.501782642.4382873972.83333610227.50904

64.77388575.7918041123.1238123947.58738

217.779481560.1606352569.5332127169.17358

305.261562334.2232563916.17309211729.28988

63.78421002.9502481722.986965001.81872

1879.899529000.74981611787.17530822741.15588

1405.263343480.9323693866.1262334822.803617

878.432143638.4835553906.8469924664.64408

184.33318537.907566632.082212946.7431

603.966041802.14441247522181.44721747522888.6134494752

3373.0121622577.51007891823662.25259891827584.5586118444

699.074662852.0761063341.6938445173.21366

4486.7223216811.34343210419634.942425044824015.7935914326

1.01823702.143748704.935082369.34622

2023.670167468.1033528400.43398820976.29994

20.80381163.50576183.90482782.72298

409.603351042.971521127.725241268.98144

Present

20YP

LTD

VHD

N Loss per catchment (ton/y)

Sheet1

Increase in N and P (as P2O5) loss (ton/yr) per catchment and country,

CatchmentN Loss (ton/y)P Loss (ton/y)

DF20YPLTDVHDDF20YPLTDVHD

Lao

1Nam Nuao763334881,25563653139

3Nam Khan692393751,12762641124

4Nam Khop693514861,14863753127

5Nam Phuong6272,6423,97310,228552884381,144

6Nam Nhiep655761,1233,948565126443

9Nam Thon2181,5602,5707,16919169283799

13Huai Som Pak3052,3343,91611,729272564311,304

15Huai Khanouan641,0031,7235,0026111191559

16Huai Tomo1,8809,00111,78722,7411789661,2812,535

Total3,37118,03926,44064,3463081,9542,8977,174

Thailand

2Nam Mae Kok1,4053,4813,8664,823150437486609

7Huai Bang Bot8783,6383,9074,66594458492590

8Nam Phone184538632947196780120

10Phu Pa Huak6041,8022,1812,88965227275365

11Nam Chi3,37322,57823,66227,5853622,8372,9763,475

12Huai Thuai6992,8523,3425,17375359422655

14Nam Mun4,48716,81119,63524,0164742,1022,4603,017

Total11,63151,70057,22570,0961,2396,4877,1918,832

Cambodia

17Tonle Repon17027052,36909595320

18Tonle Sap2,0247,4688,40020,9762369701,0952,800

19Prek Chhlong211641842,78322124374

21Prek Thnot4101,0431,1281,26943133144162

Total2,4559,37710,41727,3972811,2191,3573,656

Vietnam

20Delta63,55071,01996,963121,5448,32910,68314,79218,653

Total63,55071,01996,963121,5448,32910,68314,79218,653

Total81,007150,135191,045283,38410,15620,34426,23838,315

Country summary

NP

LossIncrease% ChangeLossIncrease% Change

Lao

Definite Future scanario3,3710030800

20 Year Plan scenario18,03914,6684351,9541,647535

Thailand

Definite Future scanario11,6311,239


Cambodia

Definite Future scanario2,4550028100

20 Year Plan scenario9,3776,9222821,219938334

Vietnam



Total basin



Sheet1

3371.2942414667.705760

11630.8038440069.59367949720

2455.095556921.628830

63550.152247468.72536

Present

20 Year Plan scenario

N loss (ton/y) from fertiliser application

Sheet2

307.6931646.7150115

1239.02965248.2980225612

280.7937938.01115

8328.86722354.11563

Present

20 Year Plan

P loss (ton/y) from fertilizer application

Sheet3

6.486829.5200390

5.913619.6748050

5.814831.60141250

54.653233.56898250

5.447259.0954050

18.7794150.61316250

27.297228.815410

5.7038105.491210

177.5974788.3345850

150.3554286.6018075

93.9786363.7171825

19.301448.185245

64.8852161.925032752

362.12442474.9053122342

74.7858284.21877

473.59881628.744672575

0.101594.79092

235.7014734.31061

2.087318.99725

42.903589.91237

Delta2354.11563

Present

20 Year Plan

Long-Term Dev.

P loss (ton/y) from fertilizer application

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

DF

20YP

LTD

VHD

N Loss per catchment (ton/yr)

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

Present

20YP

LTD

VHD

N Loss per catchment (ton/yr)

Chart6

1463.09046721.2342889789.21256823614.663048

11760.825629873.89116033632504.10874281638584.72634232

907.75243482.664323817.734968456.7868

22827.657626351.8570435445.302644184.3156

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD

Herbicide use (ton/y)

irri_qqm_point_catchment

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11881311870023911870029611870035611870047670573976439.6999000000038NAM MUN14

119814122410024512241003041224100362122410048470573976439.6999000000038NAM MUN14

120815810443970015412882154966020814893855960025033102060728903787570573976439.6999000000038NAM MUN14

12190696191300044120574155909972105018140101537182945999261010462743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1229021214714590534145822949060314671389405841590421588191547695522743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

12390886622404504043882532224017464161741862017554627157970017702743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

124904287251890013745427718900265254397189002658545971890026682743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

125905135066180704501403964601004651461367001004881557071001005262743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

126903338912001633020731300136730207426701331302076162012702743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1279011791831908832707438290118829557579401249336969069013492743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

12899900000000000000002743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1299131484046895705069432614621099016137933819694529998135835830835961196213102743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1309145223712662370222975725813280440225226117414207545226796770015752720229406123816536.6300000000064PREK THNOT21

131911352399964359371251919066463343313706243154764481159903438850295722743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

13291210472264938254821883033198227378919997365552996803219934326644418162743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1339072105250010377875100380779872003807815107003802743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

1349152536601349011190248451124042143711310715956919000.4399900000050PREK CHHLONG19

1359092505190267071172629316181170118281542477129811831256191216071192743797403.139990000002TONLE SAP18

13691631673301585699187002546606203502925914456090538893535956919000.4399900000050PREK CHHLONG19

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14191917910092753704601441837098021343407174334708332378927361.1900000000082Tonle Repon17

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1469266148262001911443558680539151806260055716421462324139058622

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198105221892160943219831521892160943219831521892160943219831521892160943219831548234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

19910531739613351017273173961335101727317396133518524172731739613351121771727348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2001054155421192802021155421192802021155421192876162021155421192810880202148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

20110551879144203161879144203161879144292131618791442131631648234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2021056475136460047513646004751364623280475136463326048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2031057325424970032542497003254249715940325424972278048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

204105818486212671740184862126717401848621267104730184862126714887048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2051059120292200120292200120292258901202922841048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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211106500018100018100018100018148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2121066000000000000000048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

213106710068011727010068011727010068011727010068011727048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

214106811579358613487211211579358613487211211579358613487211211579358613487211248234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

21510693577276641663135772766416631357727664166313577276641663148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2161070232511172327081484023251117232708148402325111723270814840232511172327081484048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

21710717480872074808720748087207480872048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2181072140301634175614030163417561403114416341756140311441634175648234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2191073301125443507148330112544350714833011254435071483301125443507148348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

220107482016113955271382016113955271382016113955271382016113955271348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

22110759843549711465221398435497114652213984354971146522139843549711465221348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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224107816496879319214509316496879319214509316496879319214509316496879319214509348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2251079146711441517088519714671144151708851971467114415170885197146711441517088519748234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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2271081239941865427946663623994186542794666362399418654279466636239941865427946663648234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2281082198861740722273700219886174072227370021988617407222737002198861740722273700248234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2291083261691605724744232426169160572474423242616916057247442324261691605724744232448234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

23010841199873709769744611998737097697446119987370976974461199873709769744648234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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232108601670184001670184001670184001670184048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2331087047400047400047423200474332048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2341088434043404340434048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2351089340424383965167134042438396516713404243839651671340424383965167148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

23610909171703889718819171703889718819171703847631881917170386420188148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

237109100044400044400044400044448234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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2391093243951631824498352924395163182449835292439516318244983529243951631824498352948234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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241109500027200027200027200027248234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2421096109401274010940127401094012740109401274048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2431097300911765233896030091176523389603009117652338960300911765233896022

2441098280621696232685661028062169623268566102806216962326856610280621696232685661022

245109978135996910020378135996910020378135996910020378135996910020348234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

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2521106434310125058793943431012505879394343354150587939434335415058793922

25311074443105175043894443105175043894443136225517504389444313622551750438922

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2551109827642029639504882764202963950488276674796395048827667479639504848234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

256022

257111026414030765026414030765026414030765026414030765022

258048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2591111790009202079000920207900644192020790064419202048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

260048234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

2611112445125095184368144512509518436814451250951843681445125095184368148234674427.0000000000098DELTA20

262022

26311131500031747141500031747141500012229174714150001222917471422

26411142783903242502783903242502783922698324250278392269832425022

26511151458013041698219291458013041698219291458011887169821929145801188716982192922

266111612331014362119591233101436211959123311005314362119591233110053143621195922

2671117106953096891571510695309689157151069530968915715106953096891571522

268111876601577955463040276601577955463040276601577955463040276601577955463040222

2691119186071606302615186071606302615186071606391182615186071606313025261522

2701120457145610045714561004571456122400457145613200022

3461531

ResultsApril

Herbicide and insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y) per catchment and countryHerbicide and insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y) per catchment and country

Catchment NoHerbicide use (ton/y)Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y)

CatchmentHerbicide use (ton/y)Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y)

DF20 YPChangeDF20YPChange%

DF20 YPLTDVHDDF20 YPLTDVHD

LaoLaoton/y%ton/y

1Nam Nuao33124181466411161865461Nam Nuao33124912744111675181

3Nam Khan298914042138841475123Nam Khan298960207388447123

4Nam Khop30132182427371241895024Nam Khop301321023413712488238

5Nam Phuong2769731,4533,7083449201,4233,7835Nam Phuong276973697252344920576168

6Nam Nhiep292074061,431341994051,5246Nam Nhiep2920717862234199164479

9Nam Thon1025769412,6071155369062,6619Nam Thon102576474465115536421366

13Huai Som Pak1218541,4374,3151787921,4314,82013Huai Som Pak121854732603178792613344

15Huai Khanouan253636241,817373305921,87815Huai Khanouan253633371,33137330292784

16Huai Tomo8173,4034,4258,4221,1153,6234,91910,18716Huai Tomo8173,4032,5863161,1153,6232,508225

Total1,4636,7219,78923,6151,9396,72310,19826,413Total1,4636,7215,2583591,9396,7234,783247

ThailandThailand

2Nam Mae Kok1,4272,0112,1802,6141,6502,1302,3853,0002Nam Mae Kok1,4272,011584411,6502,13048029

7Huai Bang Bot8732,0852,1982,5411,0182,1972,3742,8497Huai Bang Bot8732,0851,2121391,0182,1971,179116

8Nam Phone1903113565042223313905978Nam Phone1903111206322233110949

10Phu Pa Huak6021,0001,1951,5366991,1281,3731,81510Phu Pa Huak6021,000398666991,12842961

11Nam Chi3,40413,06513,48015,2553,93413,62314,40317,13211Nam Chi3,40413,0659,6612843,93413,6239,689246

12Huai Thuai6871,6231,8572,7768051,7252,0293,13212Huai Thuai6871,6239371368051,725921114

14Nam Mun4,5779,78011,23813,3595,33810,61812,41115,26414Nam Mun4,5779,7805,2021145,33810,6185,28099

Total11,76129,87432,50438,58513,66531,75235,36643,790Total11,76129,87418,11315413,66531,75218,087132

CambodiaCambodia

17Tonle Repon1209210678026026184917Tonle Repon120920939,714026026072,958

18Tonle Sap7142,7843,0786,4671,2522,5382,8737,40718Tonle Sap7142,7842,0712901,2522,5381,286103

19Prek Chhlong1164738047556197919Prek Chhlong11645349975547634

21Prek Thnot18342645750819433836741421Prek Thnot18342624313319433814474

Total9083,4833,8188,4571,4553,1923,5629,648Total9083,4832,5752841,4553,1921,737119

VietnamVietnam

20Delta22,82826,35235,44544,18425,72027,09835,64643,94320Delta22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,3785

Total22,82826,35235,44544,18425,72027,09835,64643,943Total22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,3785

Total36,23563,37381,556114,84041,51965,91184,772123,794Total36,23563,37327,1387541,51965,91124,39259

Country summaryCountry summary

HerbicidesInsecticides and fungicidesHerbicidesInsecticides and fungicides

UseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% Change

LaoLao

Definite Future scenario1,463001,939Definite Future scenario1,463001,939

20 Year Plan scenario6,7215,2583596,7234,78324720 Year Plan scenario6,7215,2583596,7234,783247

ThailandThailand



CambodiaCambodia

Definite Future scenario908001,45500Definite Future scenario908001,45500


VietnamVietnam



Total basinTotal basin

Definite Future scenario36234.58840041519.327200Definite Future scenario36,2350041,51900


ResultsApril

1463.09046721.23428800

11760.825629873.89116033600

907.75243482.6643200

22827.657626351.8570400

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD


Results

33.0016123.58688800

29.155289.4958800

29.9152131.92400

276.4904973.4489600

28.6912207.0790800

102.012576.3251200

121.4264853.88400

25.3576362.7416800

817.04083402.7486800

1426.99762010.700200

872.91122084.9120400

190.4568310.7486400

602.3984999.9817521600

3403.980813064.65025389600

686.66321623.3444400

4577.41769779.5538342800

0.5252209.1040800

713.59922784.1845600

10.613263.6224800

183.0148425.753200

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD


Herb Use DF

41.1878115.8096600

37.819684.34752500

36.824124.41247500

343.5096919.56632500

34.2988198.65297500

114.965535.79695500

178.381791.7644300

37.281329.6580300

1115.15463622.69452500

1649.5152129.50492500

1018.0552197.48358500

222.3128330.9763600

699.12841127.9267745400

3933.92513623.25595841900

804.71521725.21743500

5337.77110618.06617734500

0.3564260.3778100

1252.47582538.0050700

7.466254.8057900

194.3436338.4175900

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD

Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/ha)

Herb use 20YP

1939.42146722.702900

13665.422431752.43121530400

1454.6423191.6062600

25720.139827097.8232100

Present

20 Year Plan

LTD

VHD

Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y)

Herbi Use LTD

Herbicide and insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y) per catchment and countryHerbicide and insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y) per catchment and country

Catchment NoHerbicide use (ton/y)Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y)CatchmentHerbicide use (ton/y)Insecticide and fungicide use (ton/y)

DF20 YPChangeDF20YPChange%DF20 YPChangeDF20YPChange%

Laoton/y%ton/yLaoton/y%ton/y

1Nam Nuao331249127441116751811Nam Nuao33124912744111675181

3Nam Khan2989602073884471233Nam Khan298960207388447123

4Nam Khop3013210234137124882384Nam Khop301321023413712488238

5Nam Phuong2769736972523449205761685Nam Phuong276973697252344920576168

6Nam Nhiep29207178622341991644796Nam Nhiep2920717862234199164479

9Nam Thon1025764744651155364213669Nam Thon102576474465115536421366

13Huai Som Pak12185473260317879261334413Huai Som Pak121854732603178792613344

15Huai Khanouan253633371,3313733029278415Huai Khanouan253633371,33137330292784

16Huai Tomo8173,4032,5863161,1153,6232,50822516Huai Tomo8173,4032,5863161,1153,6232,508225

Total1,4636,7215,2583591,9396,7234,783247Total1,4636,7215,2583591,9396,7234,783247

ThailandThailand

2Nam Mae Kok1,4272,011584411,6502,130480292Nam Mae Kok1,4272,011584411,6502,13048029

7Huai Bang Bot8732,0851,2121391,0182,1971,1791167Huai Bang Bot8732,0851,2121391,0182,1971,179116

8Nam Phone19031112063222331109498Nam Phone1903111206322233110949

10Phu Pa Huak6021,000398666991,1284296110Phu Pa Huak6021,000398666991,12842961

11Nam Chi3,40413,0659,6612843,93413,6239,68924611Nam Chi3,40413,0659,6612843,93413,6239,689246

12Huai Thuai6871,6239371368051,72592111412Huai Thuai6871,6239371368051,725921114

14Nam Mun4,5779,7805,2021145,33810,6185,2809914Nam Mun4,5779,7805,2021145,33810,6185,28099

Total11,76129,87418,11315413,66531,75218,087132Total11,76129,87418,11315413,66531,75218,087132

CambodiaCambodia

17Tonle Repon120920939,714026026072,95817Tonle Repon120920939,714026026072,958

18Tonle Sap7142,7842,0712901,2522,5381,28610318Tonle Sap7142,7842,0712901,2522,5381,286103

19Prek Chhlong1164534997554763419Prek Chhlong11645349975547634

21Prek Thnot1834262431331943381447421Prek Thnot18342624313319433814474

Total9083,4832,5752841,4553,1921,737119Total9083,4832,5752841,4553,1921,737119

VietnamVietnam

20Delta22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,378520Delta22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,3785

Total22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,3785Total22,82826,3523,5241525,72027,0981,3785

Total36234.588463372.73568833627,1387541519.327265911.37491530424,39259Total36,23563,37327,1387541,51965,91124,39259

Country summaryCountry summary

HerbicidesInsecticides and fungicidesHerbicidesInsecticides and fungicides

UseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% ChangeUseIncrease% Change

LaoLao



ThailandThailand



CambodiaCambodia

Definite Future scenario908001,45500Definite Future scenario908001,45500


VietnamVietnam



Total basinTotal basin

Definite Future scenario36234.58840041519.327200Definite Future scenario36,2350041,51900


Herbi Use LTD

00

00

00

00

Present

20 Year Plan


Herbi Use VHD

00

00

00

00

Present

20 Year Plan


Insect Use DF

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Present

20 Year Plan


Insect Use 20YP

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Present

20 Year Plan


Insect Use LTD

Irrigation areas by catchment

Catchment NoDefinite FutureHerbicide use DF

WR_DFDR_DF3R_DFNR_DFWR_DFDR_DF3R_DFNR_DFTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO8,3453,93604412090433

3NAM KHAN7,2203,78203441790329

4NAM KHOP7,6193,45904161880330

5NAM PHUONG64,70728,53306,58915568053276

6NAM NHIEP7,4123,09804331870329

9NAM THON23,8727,06303,4715717028102

13HUAI SOM PAK27,81020,1610787674806121

15HUAI KHANOUAN5,8094,220016114100125

16HUAI TOMO145,28478,627034,9573491890280817

TOTAL71536703811,463

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK163,57325,266027,3041,04716202181,427

7H.BANG BOT99,29012,753019,480635820156873

8NAM PHONE23,2041,17004,3081497034190

10PHU PA HUAK67,82210,820012,38643469099602

11NAM CHI385,69565,092064,8682,46841705193,404

12HUAI THUAI77,7778,869016,516498570132687

14NAM MUN544,53043,2990101,9143,48527708154,577

TOTAL8,7161,07101,97411,761

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON179100900001

18TONLE SAP127,411137,97313,0115,6813063313145714

19PREK CHHLONG3,5772490179910111

21PREK THNOT52,23712,6623,7022,29712530918183

4403624065908

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB1,354,367694,1891,228,885231,5048,6684,4437,8651,85222,828

TOTAL8,6684,4437,8651,85222,828

18,2255,9117,8744,22536,235

Insect Use VHD


Catchment No20Y-PlanHerbicide use 20YP

WR_20YDR_20Y3R_20YNR_20YWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO12423.957395.7801,5757041013124

3NAM KHAN9227.24838.601,341522701189

4NAM KHOP137566836.2502,0767738017132

5NAM PHUONG95101.761756.65011,880533346095973

6NAM NHIEP18400.715841.601,91510389015207

9NAM THON57368.436390.8506,409321204051576

13HUAI SOM PAK82415.559028.807,724462331062854

15HUAI KHANOUAN34082.828128.801,795191158014363

16HUAI TOMO334555.6128694.20101,0691,87472108093,403

TOTAL3,6811,95401,0866,721

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK179840.7534482.55037,0141,43927602962,011

7H.BANG BOT179126.844168.65037,3191,43335302992,085

8NAM PHONE28064.154872.305,90722539047311

10PHU PA HUAK84579.9948815123.45025,29467712102021,000

11NAM CHI1147184.58311266728.0000010219,1699,1772,13401,75313,065

12HUAI THUAI137568.6534870.3030,4791,10127902441,623

14NAM MUN934790.57205815580206,0967,47865201,6499,780

TOTAL21,5293,85404,49029,874

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON274.637045.8014220700209

18TONLE SAP273954.4198542.41719212,1181,5341,11241972,784

19PREK CHHLONG6693.84248.4029337240264

21PREK THNOT57258.41328044022,522321741120426

1,8941,417521203,483

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB1372128.27067951228885231,95110,9775,6547,8651,85626,352

TOTAL10,9775,6547,8651,85626,352

36,50811,5377,8757,45263,373

Herbi-Insect Use Calc


Catchment NoLong-Term DevelopmentHerbicide use LTD

WR_LTDR_LT3R_LTNR_LTWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO17195.49387.6304014.059653032181

3NAM KHAN13561.6618903727.17635030140

4NAM KHOP17504845104526.59847036182

5NAM PHUONG135101.294146.8021101.175752701691,453

6NAM NHIEP35852.228313.405860.4201159047406

9NAM THON89158.261439.4012233.9499344098941

13HUAI SOM PAK133806.488064.6024308.774949301941,437

15HUAI KHANOUAN57403.245547.205965.1321255048624

16HUAI TOMO411890166933.80147953.22,30793501,1844,425

TOTAL5,1042,84701,8389,789

Thailand0

2NAM MAE KOK186822.237977.75047707.11,49530403822,180

7H.BANG BOT182384.647225.6045121.21,45937803612,198

8NAM PHONE30396.46150.207914.124349063356

10PHU PA HUAK99006.4448817660.8032738.3441479214102621,195

11NAM CHI1157321.58311266886.0000010260814.6986269,2592,13502,08713,480

12HUAI THUAI149202.242550.2040424.51,19434003231,857

14NAM MUN1038914.318671080190257776.3534258,31186402,06211,238

TOTAL22,7524,21205,54032,504

Cambodia0

17TONLE REPON41837098020.9220800210

18TONLE SAP284246.9239739.919155.712219.91,5921,34346983,078

19PREK CHHLONG8067.544230353.22545250373

21PREK THNOT611741420754522678.525343801321457

1,9821,655591223,818

Vietnam0

20DELTA inside LMB1575679.51303529.51649027232232.22512,60510,42810,5541,85835,445

TOTAL12,60510,42810,5541,85835,445

0

40,80517,56710,5679,25778,195


Catchment NoVery High DevelopmentHerbicide use VHD

WR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO3989318231.83017544.82231020140466

3NAM KHAN3586613029018424201730147421

4NAM KHOP3663016081016439.2205900132427

5NAM PHUONG325008245764063978.41,8201,37605123,708

6NAM NHIEP12138389167031535.268049902521,431

9NAM THON231023167937046627.21,29494003732,607

13HUAI SOM PAK3719602119220130640.82,0831,18701,0454,315

15HUAI KHANOUAN158962116120034591.289065002771,817

16HUAI TOMO6945613119660348199.43,8901,74702,7868,422

TOTAL20152861190217.8311,2866,66505,66423,615

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK20571549778.15071295.61,64639805702,614

7H.BANG BOT19519959880062531.61,56247905002,541

8NAM PHONE386948625015638.2310690125504

10PHU PA HUAK116782.8448828094047087.8441493422503771,536

11NAM CHI1261430.71617267096.0000010378394.77322610,0912,13703,02715,255

12HUAI THUAI20044976221070326.61,60461005632,776

14NAM MUN1168979.1855461433380357534.2788279,3521,14702,86013,359

TOTAL3187249.746596633032.150001025,4985,06408,02238,585

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON34340717433470832.85192402830678

18TONLE SAP46131855984127051812376.22,5833,135649996,467

19PREK CHHLONG613855849453889453.153443281294804

21PREK THNOT677001575272022939.95379881724508

TOTAL6247437058303663173498.56083952.648879.1608126.41728,457

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB186394917380432110433232701.0514911.59213904.34413506.77121861.608444,184

14911.59213904.34413506.77121861.608444,184

7691227.7465964267122.98000124767501959292.29619352074.31157276825722.03224800813524.05615571.440769544106,892

Irrigation area by catchment

Catchment NoDefinite FutureIncecticide use DF

WR_DFDR_DF3R_DFNR_DFWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO834539360440.98280541

3NAM KHAN722037820343.87260438

4NAM KHOP7619345904168240537

5NAM PHUONG647072853306589.365200079344

6NAM NHIEP741230980433.47220534

9NAM THON238727063034712449042115

13HUAI SOM PAK278102016107872814109178

15HUAI KHANOUAN5809422001616300237

16HUAI TOMO14528478627034956.814555004191,115

TOTAL2981,07005711,939

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK16357325266027303.51,14517703281,650

7H.BANG BOT9929012753019479.56958902341,018

8NAM PHONE23204117004307.91628052222

10PHU PA HUAK6782210820012386.2475760149699

11NAM CHI385695650920648682,70045607783,934

12HUAI THUAI777778869016516.1544620198805

14NAM MUN5445304329901019143,81230301,2235,338

TOTAL9,5331,17102,96113,665

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON1791008.9500000

18TONLE SAP127411137973130115681.412796691681,252

19PREK CHHLONG35772490178.8542027

21PREK THNOT522371266237022296.5552892628194

1831,056117981,455

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB13543676941891228885231504.49,4814,8598,6022,77825,720

TOTAL9,4814,8598,6022,77825,720

19364.1217188.9938628.1096338.104241,519


Catchment No20Y-PlanIncecticide use 20YP

WR_20YDR_20Y3R_20YNR_20YWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1Nam Nuao12423.957395.7801,5753752027116

3Nam Khan9227.24838.601,341283402384

4Nam Khop137566836.2502,0764148035124

5Nam Phuong95101.761756.65011,8802854320202920

6Nam Nhiep18400.715841.601,91555111033199

9Nam Thon57368.436390.8506,4091722550109536

13Huai Som Pak82415.559028.807,7242474130131792

15Huai Khanouan34082.828128.801,795102197031330

16Huai Tomo334555.6128694.20101,0691,00490101,7183,623

Total135,7841,9722,44202,3086,723

Thailand0

2Nam Mae Kok179840.7534482.55037,0141,25924106292,130

7Huai Bang Bot179126.844168.65037,3191,25430906342,197

8Nam Phone28064.154872.305,907196340100331

10Phu Pa Huak84579.9948815123.45025,29459210604301,128

11Nam Chi1147184.58311266728.0000010219,1698,0301,86703,72613,623

12Huai Thuai137568.6534870.3030,47996324405181,725

14Nam Mun934790.57205815580206,0966,54457103,50410,618

Total561,27818,8383,37309,54231,752

Cambodia0

17Tonle Repon274.637045.8014125900260

18Tonle Sap273954.4198542.41719212,1188221,3901202062,538

19Prek Chhlong6693.84248.4029320300555

21Prek Thnot57258.41328044022,522172933143338

Total14,9461,0151,7721512543,192

Vietnam0

20Delta1372128.27067951228885231,9519,6054,9488,6023,94327,098

Total9,6054,9488,6023,94327,098

30586.7566502810855.5284600078633.00915836.08080501765,911


Catchment NoLong-Term DevelopmentIncecticide use LTD

WR_LTDR_LT3R_LTNR_LTWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO17195.49387.6304014.055266068186

3NAM KHAN13561.6618903727.14143063147

4NAM KHOP17504845104526.55359077189

5NAM PHUONG135101.294146.8021101.140565903591,423

6NAM NHIEP35852.228313.405860.41081980100405

9NAM THON89158.261439.4012233.92674300208906

13HUAI SOM PAK133806.488064.6024308.740161604131,431

15HUAI KHANOUAN57403.245547.205965.11723190101592

16HUAI TOMO411890166933.80147953.21,2361,16902,5154,919

TOTAL2,7343,55903,90510,198

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK186822.237977.75047707.11,30826608112,385

7H.BANG BOT182384.647225.6045121.21,27733107672,374

8NAM PHONE30396.46150.207914.1213430135390

10PHU PA HUAK99006.4448817660.8032738.3441469312405571,373

11NAM CHI1157321.58311266886.0000010260814.6986268,1011,86804,43414,403

12HUAI THUAI149202.242550.2040424.51,04429806872,029

14NAM MUN1038914.318671080190257776.3534257,27275604,38212,411

TOTAL19,9083,685011,77235,366

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON41837098020.9126000261

18TONLE SAP284246.9239739.919155.712219.98531,6781342082,873

19PREK CHHLONG8067.544230353.22524310661

21PREK THNOT611741420754522678.525184993846367

1,0622,0681722603,562

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB1575679.51303529.51649027232232.22511029.75659124.706511543.1893947.94782535,646

TOTAL11029.75659124.706511543.1893947.94782535,646

33856.0293266216468.75216000711581.35319670.65063524781,577


Catchment NoVery High DevelopmentIncecticide use VHD

WR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHTotal

Lao

1NAM NUAO39,89318,232017,545119.679127.622810298.2616546

3NAM KHAN35,86613,029018,424107.59891.2030313.208512

4NAM KHOP36,63016,081016,439109.89112.5670279.4664502

5NAM PHUONG325,008245,764063,978975.0241720.34801087.63283,783

6NAM NHIEP121,38389,167031,535364.149624.1690536.09841,524

9NAM THON231,023167,937046,627693.0691175.5590792.66242,661

13HUAI SOM PAK371,960211,9220130,6411115.881483.45402220.89364,820

15HUAI KHANOUAN158,962116,120034,591476.886812.840588.05041,878

16HUAI TOMO694,561311,9660348,1992083.6832183.76205919.389810,187

TOTAL2,015,2861,190,2180707,9806045.8588331.52481012035.663426,413

Thailand

2NAM MAE KOK205,71549,778071,2961440.005348.4470501212.02523,000

7H.BANG BOT195,19959,880062,5321366.393419.1601063.03722,849

8NAM PHONE38,6948,625015,638270.85860.3750265.8494597

10PHU PA HUAK116,78328,094047,088817.47991416196.6580800.493350381,815

11NAM CHI1,261,431267,0960378,3958830.015013191869.67200000706432.71114484217,132

12HUAI THUAI200,44976,221070,3271403.143533.54701195.55223,132

14NAM MUN1,168,979143,3380357,5348182.8542988221003.36606078.08274005915,264

TOTAL3,187,250633,03201,002,80922310.7482261724431.225050007017047.75123528143,790

Cambodia

17TONLE REPON34,34071,74334,70833103.02502.201242.9560.55845849

18TONLE SAP461,318559,841270,51812,3761383.9543918.8871893.626210.39547,407

19PREK CHHLONG61,38558,49453,889453184.155409.458377.2237.70355979

21PREK THNOT67,70015,7527,2022,940203.1110.26450.41449.97915414

624,743705,830366,31715,8021874.2294940.812564.219268.636559,648

Vietnam

20DELTA inside LMB1,863,9491,738,0432,110,433232,70113047.64312166.30114773.0313955.9178543,943

TOTAL13047.64312166.30114773.0313955.9178543,943

7,691,2284,267,1232,476,7501,959,29241607.34922617225039.31486000714823.44533089.311635281114,559

13,518,5066,796,2032,843,0673,685,884


Catchment NoLong-Term DevelopmentHerbicide use LTD

WR_LTDR_LT3R_LTNR_LTWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHHerbicide use 20YP (kg/ha)Herbicide use Defenite Future (kg/ha)

LaoRiceRice

1Nam Nuao17,1959,38804,01496530321st Season2nd Season3rd SeasonNon-rice Crop1st Season2nd Season3rd SeasonNon-rice Crop

3Nam Khan13,5626,18903,7277635030Lao PDR5.65.608Lao PDR2.42.408

4Nam Khop17,5048,45104,5279847036Thailand i8808Thailand i6.46.408

5Nam Phuong135,10194,147021,1017575270169Cambodia5.65.62.48Cambodia2.42.42.48

6Nam Nhiep35,85228,31305,860201159047Viet Nam - Highland5.65.62.48Viet Nam - Highland2.42.42.48

9Nam Thon89,15861,439012,234499344098Viet Nam -Delta886.48Viet Nam -Delta6.46.46.48

13Huai Som Pak133,80688,065024,3097494930194

15Huai Khanouan57,40345,54705,965321255048Insecticide and fungicide use Defenite Future (kg/ha)

16Huai Tomo411,890166,9340147,9532,30793501,184Rice

Total911,472508,4730229,6905,1042,84701,8381st Season2nd Season3rd SeasonNon-rice Crop

ThailandLao PDR17012

2Nam Mae Kok186,82237,978047,7071,4953040382Thailand i77012

7Huai Bang Bot182,38547,226045,1211,4593780361Cambodia17712

8Nam Phone30,3966,15007,91424349063Viet Nam - Highland17712

10Phu Pa Huak99,00617,661032,7387921410262Viet Nam -Delta77712

11Nam Chi1,157,322266,8860260,8159,2592,13502,087

12Huai Thuai149,20242,550040,4251,1943400323

14Nam Mun1,038,914108,0190257,7768,31186402,062Herbicide use 20YP (kg/ha)

Total2,844,048526,4700692,49622,7524,21205,540Rice

Cambodia1st Season2nd Season3rd SeasonNon-rice Crop

17Tonle Repon41837,098021220800Lao PDR5.65.608

18Tonle Sap284,247239,74019,15612,2201,5921,3434698Thailand i8808

19Prek Chhlong8,0684,4230353452503Cambodia5.65.62.48

21Prek Thnot61,17414,2075,4522,679343801321Viet Nam - Highland5.65.62.48

Total353,906295,46824,60815,2731,9821,65559122Viet Nam -Delta886.48

Vietnam

20Delta1,575,6801,303,5301,649,027232,23212,60510,42810,5541,858

Total12,60510,42810,5541,858Insecticide and fungicide use 20YP (kg/ha)

Rice

Total7,691,2284,267,1232,476,7501,959,29240,80517,56710,5679,2571st Season2nd Season3rd SeasonNon-rice Crop

Sum9,794,5323,964,3501,698,2422,107,150Lao PDR37017

Thailand i77017

Cambodia37717

20Y-PlanLong-Term DevelopmentVery High DevelopmentDefinite FutureViet Nam - Highland37717

WR_20YDR_20Y3R_20YNR_20YWR_LTDR_LT3R_LTNR_LTWR_VHDR_VH3R_VHNR_VHWR_DFDR_DF3R_DFNR_DFViet Nam -Delta77717

12,4247,39601,57517,1959,38804,01439,89318,232017,5458,3453,9360441

9,2274,83901,34113,5626,18903,72735,86613,029018,4247,2203,7820344

13,7566,83602,07617,5048,45104,52736,63016,081016,4397,6193,4590416

95,10261,757011,880135,10194,147021,101325,008245,764063,97864,70728,53306,589

18,40115,84201,91535,85228,31305,860121,38389,167031,5357,4123,0980433

57,36836,39106,40989,15861,439012,234231,023167,937046,62723,8727,06303,471

82,41659,02907,724133,80688,065024,309371,960211,9220130,64127,81020,1610787

34,08328,12901,79557,40345,54705,965158,962116,120034,5915,8094,2200161

334,556128,6940101,069411,890166,9340147,953694,561311,9660348,199145,28478,627034,957

657,332348,9120135,784911,472508,4730229,6902,015,2861,190,2180707,980298,078152,879047,599

179,84134,483037,014186,82237,978047,707205,71549,778071,296163,57325,266027,304

179,12744,169037,319182,38547,226045,121195,19959,880062,53299,29012,753019,480

28,0644,87205,90730,3966,15007,91438,6948,625015,63823,2041,17004,308

84,58015,123025,29499,00617,661032,738116,78328,094047,08867,82210,820012,386

1,147,185266,7280219,1691,157,322266,8860260,8151,261,431267,0960378,395385,69565,092064,868

137,56934,870030,479149,20242,550040,425200,44976,221070,32777,7778,869016,516

934,79181,5580206,0961,038,914108,0190257,7761,168,979143,3380357,534544,53043,2990101,914

2,691,156481,8030561,2782,844,048526,4700692,4963,187,250633,03201,002,8091,361,891167,2690246,775

27537,04601441837,09802134,34071,74334,708331791009

273,954198,54217,19212,118284,247239,74019,15612,220461,318559,841270,51812,376127,411137,97313,0115,681

6,6944,24802938,0684,423035361,38558,49453,8894533,5772490179

57,25813,2804,4022,52261,17414,2075,4522,67967,70015,7527,2022,94052,23712,6623,7022,297

338,181253,11721,59414,946353,906295,46824,60815,273624,743705,830366,31715,802183,404150,89416,7138,166

1,372,128706,7951,228,885231,9511,575,6801,303,5301,649,027232,2321,863,9491,738,0432,110,433232,7011,354,367694,1891,228,885231,504

Reduction of valuable wetlands**Inundated forestsInundated grasslandsIncremental values are compared with Baseline scenario Unit:haMarshes/seasonal wetlandsLoss of valuable wetland due to reduced flooding particularly in Definite Future ScenarioThe reduced area significant in Cambodia (mainly around Tonle Sap Lake ) followed by Lao and Thailand Climate change will reverse the reduction of flooded areas and wetlands*

StationBL(2000)DF(2015)20Y(2030)LTD(2060)Lao PDR 17,035-4,867-5,860-5,570(29%)(34%)(33%)Thailand 61,696-9,317-11,184-10,683(15%)(18%)(17%)Cambodia 1,287,749-20,979-31,112-38,515(1.6%)(2.4%)(3.0%)Viet Nam 100,614-42-144-648(0.0%)(0.1%)(0.6%)

Impact on environment hotspots32 environmental hotspots identified: Ramsar sites, biosphere reserves, protected areas, Important Bird Areas (IBAs)Major causes are Definite Future Change in flow and flood patterns

Foreseeable Future and Long termChange in sedimentation, nutrient and water qualityChange in wetland habitats (deep pools, sandbars and rapids) and productivityBlockage of migration routeClimate changeHigh impact by proposed developments in the 20-Year Plan Scenario with all 11 LMB mainstream dams

*

*20-Year Plan Scenario with 11 mainstream dams20-Year Plan Scenario without mainstream damsLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh*

*Deep poolThe scenario assessments estimate the loss of capture fisheries productivity

SEA of mainstream dams identifies mitigation and enhancement measures

Fish Expert Group discusses possible technologies and mitigation measures

Impacts on fish

Impact on capture fisheries yieldCapture fisheries yield is estimated based on habitats: river-floodplain, rain-fed and permanent water including reservoirsYield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increaseReduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat lossMajor losses in capture fisheries yield caused by the proposed two mainstream dams in CambodiaThese losses are particularly severe in Cambodia and Viet Nam DeltaThailandCambodiaViet Nam DeltaLao PDRViet Nam Highland*

*Social assessment: exposed vulnerable resource users (000 livelihoods at risk)

Net economic benefitsThe net economic benefits in the various 20-Year Plan Scenarios are large and mainly derived from the development of hydropower But there would be also significant benefits in irrigated agriculture, reservoir and rice filed fisheries and some in navigationMain negative impacts are in loss of capture fisheries, wetland area production, biodiversity forest and recession rice

*Lao PDR would gain most, mainly from hydropower production, but others would also benefit both as producers and consumers of electricityCambodia would benefit less than other countries, due to adverse impacts on capture fisheries

*Comparison of economic NPV by sector and country (in 000 US$)

Some conclusionsThere is considerable scope for further basin development that can improve water, energy, and food security in the region

The natural dry season flow regime can be protected through the MRC Procedure on the Maintenance of the Flows on the Mainstream (PMFM) and and continue to meet the important and essential environmental and social needs BL*

Transboundary benefits and costs

The assessment demonstrated the considerable interplay (nexus) between water, energy, food, environmental and climate security

With coordinated national planning, benefits can be created for all countries.

A few examples are given in the next slides

Example 1: Synergy between hydropower and irrigation development plans (20-year plan secnario) *Risk is small during the next 20 years that the redistributed water from the wet to the dry season by hydropower development is not sufficient to source the irrigation developments that are being planned

Transboundary benefit sharing in these two sectors amounts to $7,000 million

The natural dry season flow regime can be protected

Example 1: Synergy between hydropower and irrigation development plans (20-year plan secnario)

Example 2: Trade-off beween hydropower development plans and capture fisheriesYield will either increase or decrease in rain-fed areas which depend on management practice while in reservoirs, yield will increaseReduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barriers, flow changes, habitat lossThe lower of the proposed eleven mainstream dams have the largest impact on LMBs capture fisheries.Regional capture fisheries net cost due to hydropower development amounts to $1,700 million in the 20-year plan scenario

ThailandCambodia

Viet Nam Delta

Lao PDR

Viet Nam Highland*

Example 3: Synergy between climate change and environmental values*In the 20-year and long-term scenarios, climate change reverses the reduction of flooding caused by ongoing and planned development Climate change would benefit environmental values (by $240 million), increase recession rice production (by $450 million) but all of this will be offset by increased flood damages (by $650 million)

Example 3: Synergy between climate change and environmental values

The IWRM-based Basin Development Strategy

Responsible Growth

Basin Development Strategy (adopted January 2012)

*Based on the assessment results of the basin-wide scenarios and the SEA of the proposed LMB mainstream dams, and the associated stakeholder consultations

For the first time since the 1995 Mekong Agreement, the countries have arrived at:An understanding of each others water-related plansdiscussed the likely transboundary impacts of their plansDeveloped a shared understanding of the water-related development opportunities and risksNegotiated the Basin Development Strategy

The Strategy describes

Development opportunities to improve water, food and energy security

15 Strategic Priorities

For Basin Development For Basin Management To:Address knowledge gaps and move identified development opportunities to implementationBroaden and strengthen the basin planning framework

A Roadmap for implementation *How the MRC member countries will share, utlize, manage and conserve the watre and related resources of the Mekong to achieve the goals of the 1995 Mekong Agreement

Wide stakeholder engagement throughout the basin planning process

Implementation of the Strategy is underway at the regional and national level and will:

Reduce knowledge gaps (fisheries, sediments, ecosystems)

Address the adverse impacts of ongoing development

Develop a Mekong multi-sector mechanism for transboundary cost and benefit sharing

Develop environmental and socio-economic baselines

Bring regional and national planning closer together

Broaden the current basin-wide scenarios to assess how regional benefits can be increased and regional costs reduced

Strengthen regional cooperation on basin planning and the implementation of the MRC Procedures

The future of te BDP Responsible Growth

*The future of BDPThe BDP will act as the instrument for impact analysis and consultationMuch of future basin development can and should be undertaken at the national levelThe BDP will explore ways to achieve transboundary benefits and mitigate transboundary costs, through the adaptation and modification of national investments.

There are almost certainly transboundary opportunities, where two or more LMB countries could develop joint projects that provide substantive benefits that can be shared. The only mandated instrument for identifying and promoting such opportunities is the BDP

Unilateral ActionJoint ActionCoordinationCollaborationCooperation ContinuumCommunication & notification

Information sharing Regional assessments Adapt national plans to mitigate regional costs Adapt national plans to capture regional gains Identify, negotiate & implement national investments that capture cooperative gains

Joint institutions

Joint project assessment & design

Joint investment Joint ownership of assets

DisputeIntegrationThe basin planning process is bringing transboundary cooperation and national process to the next higher level

*THANK YOU

**The next question then is how to define the balance Sharing of national water related information and plans allow to put them into an integrated basin-wide assessment framework The critical importance is discussions and negotiations among countries and their people on what would be the acceptable balance.

*

Sharing of national water related information and plans allow to put them into an integrated basin-wide assessment framework The critical importance is discussions and negotiations among countries and their people on what would be the acceptable balance.

**Looking at the Mekong cooperation and the 1995 Mekong Agreement:

The aspiration for developing the potentials of the River The willingness to cooperate for the sharing of Mekong water resources in a sustainable and equitable manner*

*


****The Basin Simulation Modelling Package and Knowledge base of the Decision Support Framework of the MRC.

*We used two main tools:

The Hydropower Operation rule model for single dam and Dam cascade, developed by International and national HP expert team

*


**The next question then is how to define the balance Sharing of national water related information and plans allow to put them into an integrated basin-wide assessment framework The critical importance is discussions and negotiations among countries and their people on what would be the acceptable balance.

*****

the mekong basin development planning process ton lennaerts cta basin development plan programme

Documents

mekong development

balancing basin development

mekong countries

mekong basin dependmuch

water resources development

basin countries national

slidesthe assessment

different development