the ‘low carbon road transport challenge’ “ getting the genie back in the bottle” jillian...

The ‘Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge’The ‘Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge’

““Getting the genie back in the bottle”Getting the genie back in the bottle”

Jillian Anable,Jillian Anable, UKERC and The Centre for UKERC and The Centre for Transport Policy, The Robert Gordon UniversityTransport Policy, The Robert Gordon University

Paige Mitchell,Paige Mitchell, The Slower Speeds InitiativeThe Slower Speeds Initiative

Russell Layberry,Russell Layberry, UKERC and The Environmental UKERC and The Environmental Change Institute, The University of OxfordChange Institute, The University of Oxford

The perfect policy?The perfect policy?

Guaranteed carbon reductionGuaranteed carbon reduction Significant carbon reductionSignificant carbon reduction Other significant benefits (e.g. safety)Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) EquitableEquitable Can be implemented nowCan be implemented now Cost effectiveCost effective Maximises efficiency in the systemMaximises efficiency in the system Locks in the benefits of other policiesLocks in the benefits of other policies Politically deliverablePolitically deliverable

The UK Climate Change The UK Climate Change ProgrammeProgramme

6.8 MtC6.8 MtC savings savings from the transport from the transport sector by 2010sector by 2010

Total emissions Total emissions from this sector from this sector still way above still way above 1990 levels1990 levels

UK Climate Change Programme: UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policiesTransport policies

UK Climate Change Programme - Carbon savings by 2010 from different transport policies

1.6 MtC

0.8 MtC

0.1 MtC

2.4 MtC

1.9 MtC

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

RTFO (2008 - 2010)

Other polices (1999-2010)

Sustainable distribution(in Scotland)

Voluntary Agreement(1997-2010)

Fuel Duty Escalator(1993-1999) Abandoned

Underperform

ing

?

?

Net savings = 1MtC

UK Climate Change Programme: UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + Transport policies + ??


1.6 MtC

0.8 MtC

0.1 MtC

2.4 MtC

1.9 MtC

1.9 MtC

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

RTFO (2008 - 2010)




Fuel Duty Escalator(1993-1999)

?

Speed Reduction

and

Enforcement

The The Low Carbon Road Transport Low Carbon Road Transport ChallengeChallenge Entry Two: Entry Two:

A A modelmodel of carbon emissions savings of carbon emissions savings by 2010 from:by 2010 from:

(i) (i) enforcing the current top 70 mph enforcing the current top 70 mph speed limitspeed limit on motorways and dual on motorways and dual carriageways for all 4-wheeled carriageways for all 4-wheeled vehiclesvehicles

ANDAND

(ii) (ii) reducing this to 60 mphreducing this to 60 mph

Guaranteed carbon savingsGuaranteed carbon savings

100

150

200

250

300

350

40mph

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

g C

O2 p

er

km

Petrol EuroII 1.4 - 2.0 l

Petrol EuroII > 2.0 l

Diesel EuroII <2.0 l

Diesel EuroII >2.0 l

Diesel Euro II cars (1.4 – 2l) emit 14% less CO2 at 70mph than at 80mph

The potential to save carbonThe potential to save carbon4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road transport CO2 & 8% of all CO2

All UK emissions: 156.1 MtC

Total road transport:

33 MtC (21%)

4 wheeled vehicles on

70mph roads: 13.2 MtC (8%) Ca. 50% of

cars exceed the speed limit on motorways

Model assumptionsModel assumptions Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4-

wheeled vehicleswheeled vehicles Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint

projections for interurban roads to 2010projections for interurban roads to 2010 No knock-on savings in demand or car No knock-on savings in demand or car

purchasingpurchasing Average emissions coefficients reflecting:Average emissions coefficients reflecting:

(i) fleet technology mix for each year(i) fleet technology mix for each year

(ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data)(ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data) All distance previously driven above 70mph or All distance previously driven above 70mph or

60mph redistributed to highest remaining band60mph redistributed to highest remaining band

Significant carbon savingsSignificant carbon savings

2.8 - 5.4%2.8 - 5.4% reduction in carbon emissions reduction in carbon emissions from the transport sector in 2010.from the transport sector in 2010.

Per Annum carbon savings (MtC)

TotalCumulativesavings in

20102006 2007 2008 2009 2010

70mph enforced 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.00 4.87

60mph enforced 1.81 1.84 1.88 1.91 1.94 9.38

UK Climate Change Programme: UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + speed limitTransport policies + speed limit


1.6 MtC

0.8 MtC

0.1 MtC

2.4 MtC

1.9 MtC

1.9 MtC

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

RTFO (2008 - 2010)




Fuel Duty Escalator(1993-1999)

Speed limit enforcement(60mph)

Equals 15-29% of the total savings

expected from the transport sector

by 2010

(1 Mtc)

Additional carbon savingsAdditional carbon savings

1.1. Reduction in traffic growthReduction in traffic growth

2.2. Maximising capacity by improving Maximising capacity by improving traffic flowtraffic flow

3.3. Rationalising car designRationalising car design

Reduction in traffic growthReduction in traffic growth

Effect of demand restraint scenarios on emissions reduction from speed management (2010) (cars & taxis only)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

BAU 70 Nodemand

reduction

70moderatereduction

70maximumreduction

60 Noreduction

60moderatereduction

60maximumreduction

MtC

D-CarriagewaysDiesel cars

D-CarriagewaysPetrol cars

MotorwaysDiesel cars

MotorwaysPetrol cars

Additional CO2 reductions under a scenario of ‘moderate’ traffic restraint:

3% (70 mph) – 7% (60 mph)

Improved traffic flowImproved traffic flow

Highway capacity is a function of Highway capacity is a function of speedspeed

Traffic ‘smoothing’ (e.g. M25)Traffic ‘smoothing’ (e.g. M25) Fewer crashes and disruptionFewer crashes and disruption Effect on driving style - combine with Effect on driving style - combine with

ecodriving and in car guidance ecodriving and in car guidance systemssystems

Renders motorway widening Renders motorway widening schemes unnecessary?schemes unnecessary?

Rationalising car designRationalising car design

Capping speed limits = a system Capping speed limits = a system boundaryboundary

Safer roads - set the context for Safer roads - set the context for lighter, less powerful and more lighter, less powerful and more efficient vehiclesefficient vehicles

Speed enforcement - encourage Speed enforcement - encourage voluntary uptake of speed limitersvoluntary uptake of speed limiters

Average top speed of best Average top speed of best performing models is 102mphperforming models is 102mph

Other benefitsOther benefits

Early win / certaintyEarly win / certainty – no – no technological innovation requiredtechnological innovation required

Why the urgency?Why the urgency?

COCO22 concentrations and concentrations and average temperature average temperature

changechange ‘‘Safe’ concentration has already been Safe’ concentration has already been

exceededexceeded Concentration rising by 2ppmv per yearConcentration rising by 2ppmv per year

Stabilisation targets and temperature rise:Stabilisation targets and temperature rise:Stabilisation Stabilisation levellevel

Temperature Temperature change to 2100 change to 2100

ooCC

400ppm400ppm 1.2 – 2.81.2 – 2.8

450ppm450ppm 1.3 – 3.01.3 – 3.0

550ppm550ppm 1.5 – 3.61.5 – 3.6

Other benefitsOther benefits

Early win / certaintyEarly win / certainty – no technological – no technological innovation requiredinnovation required

Safety benefitsSafety benefits – 60mph limit would halve – 60mph limit would halve deaths on motorwaysdeaths on motorways

Cost effectivenessCost effectiveness – immediate carbon – immediate carbon savings are cheaper = net benefit to savings are cheaper = net benefit to societysociety

EquityEquity – reduce the differential between – reduce the differential between the fast and the slow, the rich and the the fast and the slow, the rich and the poorpoor

Public AcceptabilityPublic Acceptability

Least intrusive measureLeast intrusive measure EgalitarianEgalitarian StraightforwardStraightforward Direct benefits – fuel savings and Direct benefits – fuel savings and

operating costsoperating costs Time penalties (if any) no worse than other Time penalties (if any) no worse than other

measuresmeasures Improved journey reliabilityImproved journey reliability M25 trials – 68% of drivers happyM25 trials – 68% of drivers happy

A systems approachA systems approach

ReduceCO2

ReduceCASUALTIES

REDUCESPEED

RationaliseCar Market

ReduceTraffic

Demand

ImproveTraffic Flow

ConclusionsConclusions

NO case for not enforcing 70mphNO case for not enforcing 70mph 60 mph would bring significant 60 mph would bring significant

benefits (29% of benefits (29% of Too good to ignoreToo good to ignore Need a comprehensiveNeed a comprehensive

review of the optionsreview of the options What’s your excuse?What’s your excuse?

the ‘low carbon road transport challenge’ “ getting the genie back in the bottle” jillian...

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