THE LOUISIANA BUDGET

PROJECT

Is Public Opinion Really Anti-Tax and Pro-Spending

Cuts?

PUBLIC OPINION, THE STATE BUDGET, AND TAXES AND SPENDING Raising State Government Revenue

Distrust & State Government SpendingAccountabilityDedicated SpendingFairness

Public Aversion to Spending Cuts? Defining the Choices

Bad Government v. Limited GovernmentSmart Government v. Limited Government

The Politics of Tax Cuts and the Costs of Jumping Off the Budgetary Cliff

STATE BUDGET POLITICS:

SPENDING CUTS AND TAXES

SUPPORT FOR A COMBINATION OF SPENDING CUTS AND TAX INCREASES (2009 & 2010)

5.3 6.2

47.840.5

4.7 2.8

41.4

51.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Don’t know By raising taxes By cutting spending

Combination of spending cuts and

tax increases2009 2010

OPINION SPLIT ON WHETHER CUTS HAVE GONE TOO FAR OR NOT FAR ENOUGH (2010)

12.7

40.3 40.9

6.1

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

Don't Know/Not Sure

Budget Cuts Have Gone Too

Far

Budget Cuts Have Not Gone

Far Enough

State budget cuts are about

right (volunteered)

IT WAS A BAD IDEA TO REPEAL THE STELLY PLAN (2010)

24.9

24.2

51.0

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

Don't Know/Haven't Given It Enough Thought

It was a good idea to repeal the Stelly Plan because it cut state

income taxes

It was a bad idea to repeal the Stelly Plan because it cost state tax revenue and contributed to

current budget shortfal

STATE INCOME AND SALES TAXES ARE TOO HIGH AND NEED TO BE REDUCED

3528

44.8

32.0 30.7

49

36

52.4

42.9 40.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

State Income Taxes State Sales Taxes

CONTINGENT SUPPORT FOR TAX INCREASES

9.1

24.8

44.1

53.4

68.2

70.5

77.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0

Increasing state taxes on gas and oil

Reducing or eliminating the homestead exemption

Increasing the state sales tax by one or two cents

Increasing state income taxes on higher earning individuals and households

Increasing state taxes on tobacco

Increasing state taxes on alcoholic beverages

Increasing state taxes on gaming in casinos

CONDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR GASOLINE TAXES

020406080

100

9.1

54.9

89.3

43.6

Favor Oppose

UNWILLING TO WIELD THE STATE BUDGETARY AXE: RESPONDENT PREFERENCES FOR SPENDING CUTS

11.1

12.4

12.4

12.8

11.6

24.4

19.5

20.3

24.2

30.0

37.9

41.0

43.4

49.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Public Health Care

Primary and Secondary Education

State Colleges and Universities

State Roads and Infrastructure

Vocational and Workforce Training

Environmental Regulation

Economic Development Incentives

Major Cuts Minor Cuts

PERCEPTIONS OF STATE GOVERNMENT WASTE

State Government Waste a Lot of Taxpayer Money

State Government Waste Some Taxpayer Money

Percent State Government Spending Could be Reduced by Cutting Waste

Right Programs Too Much Spending

Unnessary Programs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

57.9

35

23.9

26

55

HIGHER EDUCATION

Don't know; 1.7Major cuts; 12.4

Minor cuts; 30.0

No spending

cuts; 55.9

Preferences for Spending Cuts to State Colleges and Universities

CONCERNS BUDGET CUTS WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL QUALITY OF ACADEMIC PROGRAMS

52.5

32.9

9.9

2.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Very concerned Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned

Not at all concerned

STATE COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RAISE TUITION AND FEES TO OFFSET BUDGET CUTS

10.0

31.3

7.9

35.0

15.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree

Disagree Strongly disagree

HEALTH CARE

Don't know; 1.2Major cuts;

11.1

Minor cuts; 20.3

No spending cuts; 67.4

Preferences for Spending Cuts to Health Care for Poor, Elderly and

Disabled

CONCERN SPENDING CUTS WILL AFFECT THE OVERALL QUALITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH CARE IN LOUISIANA

2.4

63.5

24.8

7.71.6

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Don't know Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned

Not at all concerned

POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES

PERCEPTIONS OF IMPACT OF BUDGET CUTS ON THE RESPONDENT AND THEIR LOCAL COMMUNITY

Don't Know/Not Sure,

3.2

Serious Impact, 25.9

Somewhat of an impact, 39.2

Little or no impact, 31.8

PERCENT OF LOUISIANA RESIDENTS SAYING THE STATE IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT AND WRONG DIRECTION, 2007-2010

33.0

51.0 48.8 47.550.0

33.0 31.0

38.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

Right Direction Wrong Direction

PERCENT VERY OR SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT STATE GOVERNMENT WILL EFFECTIVELY ADDRESS MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM

56.2

33.340.1 39.0

60.964.5

54.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2005 2006 Spring

2006 Fall 2007 2008 2009 2010

CONCLUSIONS

LOUISIANA PUBLIC OPINION A “New Louisiana” v. Anti-Tax Sentiment

Framing the Debate

Defining ChoicesBad Government v. Limited GovernmentSmart Government v. Limited Government

The Political Consequences of “No New Taxes”

ABOUT THE LOUISIANA SURVEY

Barometer of Louisiana public opinion, 2002-2010 Beginning in 2009, dual frame sampling of landline and

cell phone populations Each survey includes 800-1,000 respondents The 2010 Louisiana Survey is based 913 total respondents

including 510 landline telephone interviews and 403 cell phone interviews (+/- 3.2 margin of error, +/- 4.3 on landline)

Weighted to reflect current population estimates from the American Community Survey and based on NHIS estimates of telephone use.