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Page 1: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds
Page 2: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds
Page 3: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

“The Long And Winding Road”

EMI and the music business

Page 4: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI – the first 100 years

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1897Gramophone

established in London

1904listed on

LSE

1921first HMV

shop opens in London

1931Gramophone and

Columbia merge to form EMI

Abbey Road opens

194833 1/3 rpm

recordsintroduced

1955EMI acquires

Capitol

1962EMI signs

The Beatles

1982CDs introduced

1990Chrysalis acquired

1992Virgin

acquired

1997Thorn/EMIdemerge1979

Thorn / EMI merge

1897Gramophone

established in London

Page 5: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI today

• Public company

• Market capitalisation £2 billion

• No.1 music publishing company

• No.3 recorded music company

• Operations in 48 countries on six continents

• 6,700 employees worldwide

Page 6: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

GeographyGroup revenue by origin

Asia Pacific 18.8%

RoW4.1%

Rest of Europe31.8% UK

15.7%

North America 29.6%

Source: EMI Group

Page 7: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

The EMI Group– a worldwide leader in music

An outstanding roster of recorded music stars and a rich catalogue of recordings

An exceptional catalogue of songs and a roster of elite songwriters

Source : EMI Group, IFRS adjusted FY 04/05

11.2%24.9%7.8%Margin414184230$m225100125£m

EBITA3,6827382,944$m2,0014011,600£m

Revenue

EMIGroup

EMI Music Publishing

EMIMusic

Summary financials

Page 8: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI Music Publishing

Scissor Sisters

Alan JacksonUsher

James Blunt

How Sweet It Is “To Be Loved By You”Hungry Like The Wolf I Heard It Through The Grapevine I’m Not In Love Lady Marmalade Let’s Get It On Mamma Mia Mony Mony New York New York Sexual Healing Shout Singin’ In The Rain

Ain’t No Mountain High Enough Angels Bohemian RhapsodyCan’t Take My Eyes Off You Dancing In The MoonlightDaydream Believer Every Breath You Take Fields of GoldGet Down On It Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas

Strangers In The Night That’s The Way (I Like It) This Old Heart Of Mine The James Bond Theme The Loco-Motion Walking On Sunshine We Gotta Get Out Of This Place We Will Rock You What’s Going On Wild Thing You’ve Got A Friend You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feeling’

Eminem

Kanye West

Natasha Bedingfield

An impressive catalogue Current song writing talents

Page 9: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Shirley Bassey Beach Boys Beastie Boys The Beatles Blondie Marc Bolan David Bowie Kate Bush Maria Callas EnricoCaruso Joe Cocker Nat King Cole Deep Purple Fats Domino Jacqueline du Pre Duran Duran Edward Elgar Gracie FieldsGeorge Formby Hollies Iron MaidenNigel Kennedy Lenny Kravitz Peggy Lee John Lennon Vera Lynn Paul McCartneyDean Martin Massive Attack Johnny Mercer Steve Miller N*E*R*D Mike Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds SpandauBallet Spice Girls Stranglers Frank Sinatra Tina Turner UB40 Fats Waller

EMI Music: recorded musicA rich back catalogue of recordingsAn exciting roster of current

recording artists

Joss Stone

Page 10: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Major EMI labels

Page 11: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI’s top selling albums worldwide 2005

1 Coldplay X & Y

2 Robbie Williams Intensive Care

3 Gorillaz Demon Days

4 The Rolling Stones A Bigger Bang

5 Various Now That’s What I Call Music! Vol 19/20

6 Keith Urban Be Here

7 Various Now That’s What I Call Music! 62

8 KT Tunstall Eye To The Telescope

9 KO N See You On The Other Side

10 RBD Rebelde

Artist Title

Page 12: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

World recorded music market share

BMG11%

Sony14%

EMI12%

Warner12%

Indies25%

Universal11%

Page 13: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Global recorded music sales1969-2005USD billions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

*

Source: Enders Analysis

2004 & 2005 figures are estimates

Page 14: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

What do you do when your market takes a dive?

• Understand the root causes of decline

• Address the issues in your existing business

• Find new sources of income

• Redefine the business

Page 15: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Root causes of market decline

• General economic conditions

• Growth in competing entertainment products

• Piracy– Physical piracy– Online piracy

• Quality of music

Page 16: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Consumer spending is shifting away from traditional formats

-2%

30%

71%

-2%

8%7%

0% 1%

-2%-7%

-2% -2%

22%27%

6%13%

7%0%

-3%

27%

20%

9%

RecordedMusic

Magazines BroadcastTV

BroadcastRadio

Books NewspaperBox Office SatelliteRadio

HomeVideo

VideoGames

WirelessPhones

Internet Cable &Satellite TV

DigitalMusic

Time spent 1998-2004 CAGRMoney spent 1998-2004 CAGR

NA

(1) CAGR for 2002-2004 only(2) 2001-2004 onlyNote: All per capita data based on total U.S. population of 296MM Source: Veronis Suhler, Forrester, Arbitron, Booz Allen analysis

Change in media and entertainment spend

306% (1)

NA

156% (2)

NA

Page 17: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

The amount of media content competing for consumers’ attention has increased significantly

Nationally available US cable programming

channels(1998-2004)

245283 281 287 308 339 390

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sources: NCTA, DVD Entertainment Group, Media UK

Number of available US DVD titles

(all formats: 2000-2004)

9,000

20,000

40,000

2000 2002 2004

Number of UK radio stations(1995-2005)

225

354

1995 2005

Page 18: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Physical piracy: pervasive

17%20%

28%

33%35% 34%

14% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

99%

85%

80%

68%

66%

60%

59%

56%

52%

24%

Paraguay

China

Indonesia

Ukraine

Russia

Mexico

Pakistan

India

Brazil

Spain

Worldwide % of CD albums sold that are pirate

Major pirate markets

Page 19: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Digital piracy: in 2003, 80 million people were downloading music files from P2P networks

154 53

4383

377

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

U.S. Germany UK Spain

Source: IT Innovations & Concepts, Aug 2004

Songs downloaded - P2P networks 2003(millions)

P2P penetration rate of internet users

7%

31%

19%17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

U.S. Germany UK Spain

Page 20: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Number of illegal P2P users contained despite high broadband growth in US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05

Mill

ions

of u

sers

NPD - # Households downloading music from P2P Pew broadband home users

Page 21: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Progress in fight against piracy

Pre-releasesecurity

Lawsuits

Enable and support new legal digital

businesses

Enable ‘authorised’ sharing

Create new consumer experience on physical discs

Government lobbying: legislation, enforcement

Copy protection on discs

P2P technical counter

measures

Education: consumers, employees, third-parties

Technological

Legal alternatives

Industry efforts

• June 2005: Unanimous Supreme Court ruling in favour of the industry against Grokster

• September 2005: Australian Federal Court ruling in favour of industry against Kazaa

• Over 14,000 lawsuits filed against illegal file sharers to date

Page 22: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI Music transformation

• October 2001 – new management team

• Implemented cost reduction and restructuring programmes– Europe: combined Virgin and Capitol back offices,

rationalised country and label structures– US: centralised management and marketing and

created shared services for back office, restructured Virgin

– Outsourced manufacturing: Europe, North America, Japan

– Centralised international marketing and priority systems

Page 23: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI Music transformation (contd)

– Added or enhanced new business functions• created anti piracy/content protection team• established government affairs team in US, EU and

UK• strengthened strategy team and consumer research

capability• initiated comprehensive technology change

programme• expanded management training and people

development

Page 24: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI Music transformation (contd)

• Through this re-sizing and re-shaping of the business, we– reduced fixed costs by c.£150m– reduced staff by c.35%– cut artist roster by c.35%

• Drove culture shift– balance of business discipline and creative initiative– innovation– sharp consumer focus

Page 25: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI: embracing digital music opportunityWe want to enable consumers to find and consume…

any music …

… in any form …

… at any time …

… in any place…

It is all about taking our music to the consumer

Page 26: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Consumers have been embracing new ways to listen to music

Source of music listening in the US

Source: NPD Music Lab, Online survey, February 2005, Ages 13+ n=4,700 Results projected to total U.S. population

8%

13%

16%

23%

32%

40%

41%

86%

71%

Live concert

MP3 player

Music DVD

Online radio

Digital music file on computer

Music video on TV

Physical CD on a computer

CD on home stereo

Radio

NewTraditional

Page 27: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Consumers and legitimate music purchasing

54%

40%

37%

32%

26%

26%

23%

Easier to find songs

Better value for money

Instant gratification

Good way to sample new music

Easier to store

Better assortment

Better sound quality

Motivation for legal digital music buying

Source: NPD

Page 28: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Digital buyers spend more

58%

70%

89%

61%

83%

91%

58%

68%

81%

...I buy moremusic than I used

to"

…music is abigger part of my

life"

...I listen to musicmore than I used

to"

TotalAge 13-17Age 18-25

% agreeing with statement

“Now that I own an iPod…

Source: NPD MusicLab December 2005, EMI analysis Base: Own an iPod

Page 29: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

EMI is working with all major players in the digital space

Page 30: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Growth of broadband & MP3 player penetration will facilitate wider uptake of digital services

31%

19% 20%

15%

38%

6%6%7%9%11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

US UK France Germany Japan

• External predictions show broadband penetration doubling in these countries over the next 4 years1

• Researchers forecast that the US market for portable MP3 players will treble between 2004 and 20082

• As the technology develops and becomes more widespread, digital music demand should continue to benefit

Source: Understanding & Solutions, 2004. MP3 penetration % population. Broadband % homesNotes: 1Carat 2005 2Jupiter 2004

Broadband penetration Portable digitalplayer penetration

Broadband and portable digital player penetration (2004)

Page 31: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

The development of mobile phone technology provides significant new opportunities for music consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

• Today, less than 10% of mobile phones are capable of playing music

• Forecast that 50% of mobile phones will be music phones in 2008

• The roll-out of 3G and wireless broadband technology will drive consumer uptake

• All major handset manufacturers and mobile service providers investing in mobile music opportunityNon-music phones Music phones

Source: Strategy Analytics

Worldwide device sales (millions of units)

Page 32: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Accelerating device sales –accelerating digital track sales

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Q3 03 Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 05 Q3 050

50

100

150

200

250

iPod sales iTunes downloads

• 14 million iPods were sold in Q4 05 – three times the number sold in the same period a year earlier

• Downloads on iTunes have been gathering pace – it will not be long before downloads reach 1 billion

• 42 million iPods shipped to date

• Over 12 million iTunes videos downloaded to date

Million iPods Million tracks downloaded

iPod sales and iTunes tracks downloaded

Source : Apple, EMI estimates

Page 33: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Digital development varies by region

EMI Music’s digital revenues by type and region (H1 05/06)

Fixed LineDownload

Mobile

Subscription

Source: EMI Group

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

NorthAmerica

Cont.Europe

UK& Ireland

Japan LatinAmerica

Asia Pacific Total

Page 34: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

From where to here … • Over five years of significant industry challenges

– technology fuelling explosion in piracy– rise in competing products– declining shelf space at retail– new business models slow to emerge

• We saw the threats – and the opportunities – and took action– radical restructuring of our global operations– increased investment in IT/systems, strategy, consumer

research and anti piracy efforts– continued to focus on the music– embracing digital music – new products, new partners,

new models

Page 35: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

… and moving forward

• Industry prospects improving– piracy growth being contained– continued increase in new digital products and services– growth in broadband and mobile phone capabilities will

spur consumer uptake of digital music and lead to even greater product expansion

Page 36: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Digital sales drive further market trend improvement

Source: Based on EMI Group estimatesNote: FY04 and H1 05 include digital sales

% change in value of global music market

FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 H1 06

3.14.2 4.1

-3.8

-5.5

-8.7

-5.6

-1.0 -0.9

Page 37: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

The future potential from digital is significant

• Digital sales are an appreciable contributor to revenues already

• Significant advances in broadband, music phone and portable MP3 penetration are still to come

• Digital could represent up to 25% of the global music industry by 2010

• Driving 5% CAGR in industry sales by 2010

Page 38: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

Potential growth of the global wholesale recorded music market

LECG / EMI: Planning scenario – Digital Day, 1 July 2004Not a forecast

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E

Core digital AncillaryCore physical Substitution

Digital could represent approximately 25% of music industry in 5 years

£m CAGRof ~ 5%

Page 39: “The Long And Winding Road” · PDF file“The Long And Winding Road ... Oldfield Edith Piaf Pink Floyd Andre Previn Queen Simon Rattle Cliff Richard Rolling Stones Simple Minds

London Business School

Eric NicoliChairman, EMI Group