the lone grove, ok, tornado 10/02/2009 robert warren
TRANSCRIPT
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The Lone Grove, OK, Tornado 10/02/2009
Robert Warren
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Case Study: The Lone Grove Tornado
DallasOklahoma City
• February 10, 2009 – EF4 tornado passed through Lone Grove, OK• 8 people killed; $3million worth of damage
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• SPC Day 4–8 Convective outlook on Saturday, February 7th:“…INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL…INCLUDING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS MAY COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…”
• SPC Day 3 Convective outlook on Sunday, February 8th:“…LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…”
SPC forecasts
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• SPC Day 1 Convective outlook on Tuesday, February 10th:“…GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON… STRENGTHENING OF THE SLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM E TX/LA TO ERN KS/MO WILL RESULT IN LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES…”
SPC forecasts
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• SPC Day 1 Convective outlook on Tuesday, February 10th:“…THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA…”
Forecast update
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Skew-T for Dallas – 6am
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Visible Satellite – 12:45pm
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Surface Analysis – 1pm
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CAPE and CIN – 1:00pm
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Driving West near Lone Grove – 1:37pm
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Lone GroveOur location
Tornadoes in central Oklahoma – 3:05pm
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Visible Satellite – 4:33pm
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Skew-T for Dallas – 6pm
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500mb geopotential height & wind – 6pm
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Storm Motion and SRH – 6:00pm
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Significant Tornado Parameter & CIN – 6:00pm
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Surface analysis – 6:00pm
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Wall Cloud near Bellevue, TX – 6:05pm
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Doppler Velocities – 6:05pm
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“THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTIES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSCAR AT 620 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO WARNING OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.”
Significant Weather Advisory – 6:20pm
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Updraught lightning – 6:20pm
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Doppler Velocities – 6:22pm
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Rope tornado – 6:31pm
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• Indicative of large hail• 3-body scatter process
– Portion of radar beam is scattered towards surface
– Portion of this is scattered back into the cloud
– Portion of this is scattered back to the radar
• Delay in return signal → radar ‘sees’ target at a greater distance
• Doppler velocity can be used to infer fall speeds of hail
Hail Spike – 6:31pm
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Threat Net – 6:39pm
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“AT 650 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRADY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.”
Tornado Warning – 6:50pm
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“AT 731 PM CST… DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR LONE GROVE… MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH…”
Tornado Confirmed – 7:31pm
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• Velocity Aliasing (folding) on the Doppler radar. • Doppler Dilemma – trade-off between maximum Doppler
velocity and maximum range
“AT 738 PM CST…A LARGE…VIOLENT TORNADO WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF ARDMORE…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH…”
“Violent Tornado” – 7:38pm
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• Lasted over an hour & travelled 35 miles• Reached peak intensity of EF4 just before it hit Lone Grove
Tornado track
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• Mesonet – network of automated weather stations across OK
• Newport site < 2 miles north of tornado track
• As storm passed:• Sharp temperature
and dewpoint drop• Northwesterly wind
gust of 58 mph• Marked pressure drop• Heavy rain associated
with storm core
Mesonet Meteorgram
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• 8 people killed (7 in Lone Grove, and one truck driver on I-35)
• 14 seriously injured• 114 residences destroyed
(including 2 trailer parks)• Cars and RVs overturned• Metal forced through trees• Double storey houses
reduced to single storey• Loss of household
possessions• $3million worth of damage
Damage
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• National Guard sent to provide security
• American Red Cross and Salvation Army shelters set up
• Local charities, churches schools offer money, shelter, food and support to the victims
• Help with the clean up from groups across the state
• President Obama approved federal assistance on the 15th
• FEMA set up a disaster recovery centre on the 20th
Response
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Why was the death toll so high?• Event was well forecast – risk
identified several days early• Numerous watches, warnings, and
advisories issued on the day• So why was the death toll so high?
• Tornado sirens: Many people said they went off only a few seconds before it struck
• Complacency: “I wasn’t worried. It was February. We don’t get tornadoes like this in February.” – Sherry Franks, Lone Grove survivor
• After dark