the local elections in london - what do the results mean for housing associations?

• Dave Smith, External Affairs Manager (London), National Housing Federation (Chair)

• Robert Gordon Clark, Executive Chairman, London Communication Agency

The local elections in London – what do the results mean for housing associations?

London Communications Agency

LCANHF

LONDON: POST LOCAL ELECTIONS NATIONAL HOUSING FEDERATION

ROBERT GORDON CLARK, EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN

@LDNCOMMS

10 JULY 2014


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THE RIVER OF LONDON ELECTIONS

2005General Election

2006Local Elections

2008London Elections


2010Local Elections

2010General Election


2014LocalElections

SEPT 2014ScottishReferendum

2015GeneralElection

2016LondonElections


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LONDON ELECTIONS | 2006 ELECTION MAP


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LONDON ELECTIONS | 2010 ELECTION MAP


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LONDON ELECTIONS | PRE-2014 ELECTION MAP


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LONDON ELECTIONS | POST-2014 ELECTION MAP


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2006

Labour………………..………..7

Conservative……….…………13

Lib Dem………………..………3

NOC…………….……….……..9

2010

Labour………………..…...…..17

Conservative……….……...…11

Lib Dem………………….……2

NOC…………….……………..2

PREVIOUS LONDON ELECTIONS – BOROUGHS


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Pre-2014 Local Elections

Labour………………..……….15

Conservative……….…………10

NOC…………….……….……...4

Lib Dem………………..…….…2

Independent ……………………1

LONDON ELECTIONS | BOROUGH OVERVIEW

Post-2014 Local Elections

Labour…………………...20 (+5)

Conservative……….…..…9 (-1)

Lib Dem……………………1 (-1)

Tower Hamlets First……..1 (n/c)

NOC………………………..1 (-3)


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LONDON ELECTIONS | BUBBLE MAP


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LONDON ELECTIONS | COUNCILLOR TOTALS

LONDONCOUNCILLORS

ENGLAND COUNCILLORS

Lab 1,058 (+216) 2,121 (+324)

Con 611 (-85) 1,364 (-236)

LD 116 (-121) 427 (-310)

UKIP 12 (-8) 163 (+161)

Green 4 (+2) 38 (+18)

Others 47 (-23) 146 (+43)

Total 1,848 (-13) 4,259


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LONDON ELECTIONS | FIRST LOSERS


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LONDON ELECTIONS | BOROUGH BY BOROUGH


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LONDON ELECTIONS | LBHF – LAB GAIN (6)

2010Con: 31

Lab: 15

2014Lab: 26

Con: 20


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LONDON ELECTIONS | LAMBETH – LAB HOLD (55)

2014

2010Lab: 44

LD: 15

Con: 4

2014Lab: 59

Con: 3

Green: 1


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LONDON ELECTIONS | SOUTHWARK – LAB HOLD (33)

2010Lab: 35

LD: 25

Con: 3

2014Lab: 48

LD: 13

Con: 2


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LONDON ELECTIONS | WANDSWORTH – CON HOLD (22)

2010Con: 47

Lab: 13

2014Con: 41

Lab: 19


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LONDON ELECTIONS | KINGSTON – CON GAIN (8)

2010LD: 27

Con: 21

2014Con: 28

LD: 18

Lab: 2


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LONDON ELECTIONS | EALING – LAB HOLD (37)

2014Lab: 53

Con: 12

LD: 4

2010Lab: 40

Con: 24

LD: 5


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LONDON ELECTIONS | HOUNSLOW – LAB HOLD (38)

2010Lab: 35

Con: 25

2014Lab: 49

Con: 11


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LONDON ELECTIONS | CAMDEN – LAB HOLD (26)

2010Lab: 30

Con: 10

LD: 13

Green: 1

2014Lab: 40

Con: 12

LD: 1

Green: 1


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LONDON ELECTIONS | ISLINGTON – LAB HOLD (46)

2010Lab: 35

LD: 13

2014Lab: 47

Green: 1


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LONDON ELECTIONS | TOWER HAMLETS – THF HOLD

2014Lab: 22

THF: 18

Con: 5

2010Lab: 41

Con: 8

LD: 1

Ind: 1


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LONDON ELECTIONS | BARNET – CON HOLD (1)

2010Con: 39

Lab: 21

LD: 32014

Con: 32

Lab: 30

LD: 1


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LONDON ELECTIONS | WESTMINSTER – CON HOLD (28)

2010Con: 48

Lab: 12

2014Con: 44

Lab: 16


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LONDON ELECTIONS | LOOKING FORWARD

• 18 September 2014: Scottish Independence Referendum

• 7 May 2015: UK General Election

• May 2016: London Mayor and Assembly Elections


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LOOKING AHEAD | 2015 GENERAL ELECTION


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LOOKING AHEAD | LABOUR TARGET SEATS (2015)TARGET NUMBER

LABOUR PARTY INCUMBENTPARTY

2010 MAJORITY

SWINGNEEDED (%)

TARGET NUMBER

LABOUR PARTY INCUMBENTPARTY

2010 MAJORITY

SWINGNEEDED (%)

1 North Warwickshire Conservative 54 0.1 35 Dundee East SNP 1,821 4.5

2 Thurrock Conservative 92 0.2 36 East Dunbartonshire Lib Dem 2,184 4.6

3 Hendon Conservative 106 0.2 37 Halesowen & Rowley Regis Conservative 2,023 4.6

4 Cardiff North Conservative 194 0.4 38 Nuneaton Conservative 2,069 4.6

5 Sherwood Conservative 214 0.4 39 Gloucester Conservative 2,420 4.8

6 Norwich South Lib Dem 310 0.7 40 Northampton North Conservative 1,936 4.8

7 Stockton South Conservative 332 0.7 41 Bury North Conservative 2,243 5.0

8 Broxtowe Conservative 389 0.7 42 Kingswood Conservative 2,445 5.1

9 Lancaster & Fleetwood Conservative 333 0.8 43 Erewash Conservative 2,501 5.3

10 Bradford East Lib Dem 365 0.9 44 Blackpool North & Cleveleys Conservative 2,150 5.3

11 Amber Valley Conservative 536 1.2 45 City of Chester Conservative 2,583 5.5

12 Waveney Conservative 769 1.5 46 Arfon Plaid Cymru 1,455 5.6

13 Wolverhampton South West Conservative 691 1.7 47 Croydon Central Conservative 2,879 5.8

14 Morecambe & Lunesdale Conservative 866 2.0 48 Worcester Conservative 2,982 6.1

15 Carlisle Conservative 853 2.0 49 Keighley Conservative 2,940 6.2

16 Stroud Conservative 1,299 2.2 50 Wirral West Conservative 2,436 6.2

17 Weaver Vale Conservative 991 2.3 51 Cannock Chase Conservative 3,195 7.0

18 Lincoln Conservative 1,058 2.3 52 Loughborough Conservative 3,744 7.1

19 Brighton, Pavilion Green 1,252 2.4 53 Harrow East Conservative 3,403 7.1

20 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Conservative 1,149 2.6 54 Warwick & Leamington Conservative 3,513 7.2

21 Dewsbury Conservative 1,526 2.8 55 Birmingham, Yardley Lib Dem 3,002 7.3

22 Warrington South Conservative 1,553 2.8 56 South Swindon Conservative 3,544 7.5

23 Brent Central Lib Dem 1,345 3.0 57 Ealing Central & Acton Conservative 3,716 7.9

24 Bedford Conservative 1,353 3.0 58 Pendle Conservative 3,585 8.0

25 Brighton, Kemptown Conservative 1,328 3.1 59 Stevenage Conservative 3,578 8.0

26 Pudsey Conservative 1,659 3.4 60 Elmet & Rothwell Conservative 4,521 8.1

27 Corby Conservative 1,895 3.5 61 Edinburgh West Lib Dem 3,803 8.2

28 Brentford & Isleworth Conservative 1,958 3.6 62 Watford Conservative 1,425 8.2

29 Hove Conservative 1,868 3.8 63 Carmarthen West & South PembrokeshireConservative 3,423 8.5

30 Enfield North Conservative 1,692 3.8 64 Vale of Glamorgan Conservative 4,307 8.9

31 Hastings & Rye Conservative 1,993 4.0 65 Argyll & Bute Lib Dem 3,431 8.9

32 Manchester, Withington Lib Dem 1,894 4.2 66 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & TweeddaleConservative 4,194 9.1

33 Burnley Lib Dem 1,818 4.3 67 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Plaid Cymru 3,481 9.2

34 Ipswich Conservative 2,079 4.4 68 Norwich North Conservative 3,901 9.2


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LOOKING AHEAD | CON TARGET SEATS (2015)TARGET NUMBER

CONSERVATIVE PARTY INCUMBENTPARTY

2010 MAJORITY

SWINGNEEDED (%)

TARGET NUMBER

CONSERVATIVE PARTY INCUMBENTPARTY

2010 MAJORITY

SWINGNEEDED (%)

1 Hampstead & Kilburn Labour 42 0.1 35 Oldham East & Saddleworth Labour 103 5.4

2 Bolton West Labour 92 0.2 36 Southampton, Test Labour 2,413 5.5

3 Solihull Lib Dem 175 0.3 37 Luton South Labour 2,329 5.5

4 Southampton, Itchen Labour 192 0.4 38 Bridgend Labour 2,263 5.9

5 Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dem 269 0.6 39 Dagenham & Rainham Labour 2,630 5.9

6 Wirral South Labour 531 1.3 40 Delyn Labour 2,272 6.1

7 Derby North Labour 613 1.4 41 Cheadle Lib Dem 3,272 6.2

8 Wells Lib Dem 800 1.4 42 North Cornwall Lib Dem 2,981 6.4

9 Dudley North Labour 649 1.7 43 Gower Labour 2,683 6.4

10 Great Grimsby Labour 714 2.2 44 Norwich South Lib Dem 310 6.4

11 Morley & Outwood Labour 1,101 2.3 45 Penistone & Stocksbridge Labour 3,049 6.6

12 Telford Labour 978 2.4 46 Eastbourne Lib Dem 3,435 6.6

13 Walsall North Labour 990 2.7 47 Birmingham, Northfield Labour 2,782 6.7

14 St Austell & Newquay Lib Dem 1,312 2.8 48 Stalybridge & Hyde Labour 2,744 6.7

15 Somerton & Frome Lib Dem 1,817 3.0 49 Bury South Labour 3,292 6.8

16 Birmingham, Edgbaston Labour 1,274 3.1 50 Harrow West Labour 3,143 6.8

17 Sutton & Cheam Lib Dem 1,608 3.3 51 Bradford East Lib Dem 365 6.9

18 Halifax Labour 1,472 3.4 52 Taunton Deane Lib Dem 3,993 6.9

19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 1,552 3.6 53 Scunthorpe Labour 2,549 6.9

20 Middlesbrough South & East ClevelandLabour 1,677 3.6 54 Berwick-upon-Tweed Lib Dem 2,690 7.0

21 Wakefield Labour 1,613 3.6 55 Vale of Clwyd Labour 2,509 7.1

22 St Ives Lib Dem 1,719 3.7 56 Wolverhampton North East Labour 2,484 7.1

23 Plymouth Moor View Labour 1,588 3.8 57 Eastleigh Lib Dem 3,864 7.2

24 Gedling Labour 1,859 3.9 58 Hyndburn Labour 3,090 7.2

25 Eltham Labour 1,663 4.0 59 Alyn & Deeside Labour 2,919 7.3

26 Walsall South Labour 1,755 4.3 60 Birmingham, Selly Oak Labour 3,482 7.5

27 Nottingham South Labour 1,772 4.3 61 Hammersmith Labour 3,549 7.5

28 Chippenham Lib Dem 2,470 4.7 62 Argyll & Bute Lib Dem 3,431 7.6

29 Tooting Labour 2,524 5.0 63 Brighton, Pavilion Green 1,252 7.6

30 Chorley Labour 2,593 5.2 64 Darlington Labour 3,388 7.9

31 North East Derbyshire Labour 2,445 5.2 65 Sefton Central Labour 3,862 8.0

32 Exeter Labour 2,721 5.2 66 Aberdeenshire West & KincardineLib Dem 3,684 8.2

33 Blackpool South Labour 1,852 5.3 67 Clwyd South Labour 2,834 8.2

34 Westminster North Labour 2,126 5.4 68 Bristol East Labour 3,722 8.3


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THE GUARDIAN | POLL OF POLLS


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1992 GENERAL ELECTION


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LOOKING BACK : LONDON MAYORAL ELECTIONS

• 4 May 2000: Ken Livingstone (Ind) Maj: 212,290

• 10 June 2004: Ken Livingstone (Lab) Maj: 161,202

• 1 May 2008: Boris Johnson (Con) Maj: 139,772

• 3 May 2012: Boris Johnson (Con) Maj: 62,538


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LOOKING BACK : LONDON ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

2000 2004 2008 2012CON 9 9 11 9LAB 9 7 8 12

LIB DEM 4 5 3 2GREEN 3 2 2 2 UKIP 0 2 0 0 BNP 0 0 1 0


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LOOKING BACK : LONDON MAYORAL ELECTIONS


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LOOKING AHEAD : 2016 MAYORAL ELECTION


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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HOUSING COMMUNITY

• Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP):– local authority housing targets (42k pa)– 80% market rent definition

• Mayor’s Housing Strategy:– 20 ‘Housing Zones’– London Rental Standard– Releasing public sector land

• Local Authority borrowing cap– More calls for cap to be lifted to build more homes– Free up councils to become sole housing providers again


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QUESTIONS?

Questions?

• @natfeddave • @rgclondoncomms

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the local elections in london - what do the results mean for housing associations?

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