1

NATIONAL MILK AGENCY

The Liquid Milk Sector

1994 - 2014

Topics

The NMA

Producers Production

Processors Stature and Contribution

Imports of Liquid Milk

Retailers, Milk Traders and Multiples

Consumer, Choice and Traceability

The Future Post Quotas

2

3

Liquid Milk

Value Added Product

Ireland and UK

4

Establishment of the Agency

Milk (Regulation of Supply) Act, 1994

- Replaced Dublin and Cork District

Milk Boards

5

Role and Development

of the Agency

CHAIRMAN

PRODUCERS 5 (elected)

PROCESSORS 4

CONSUMERS 2

RETAILER 1

DISTRIBUTOR 1

Represents all interests in the sector

6

Staff of the Agency

CEO

2 Administrative

2 Inspectors

‘Lean Organisation’

7

Entirely Funded by the Industry

Itself

Levy Rate in 1994 – 0.127 c/l

Levy payable has decreased

by 9% since 1994

20% reduction in levy in 2013

Previous Rate - 0.145 c/l

Current Rate - 0.115 c/l

8

Agency is a Statutory Body

Statutory Powers

Adequacy of Compensation Statutory

Requirement

Regulation through Contracts

9

Constraints on the Agency

EU Environment

Price Fixing

Freedom of Movement of Goods

10

Liquid Milk Producers and the

NMA

Statutory Recognition

Producers – special group

Statutory Right

Adequate Compensation

11

Agency and Liquid Milk Prices

Price

Working Guidelines

Transparency on Price

12

Year ‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09 ‘08 ‘07 ‘06 ‘05 ‘04 ‘03 ‘02

Peak to trough months ratios

Manu 8.6 9.1 6.8 8.7 8.1 7.1 8.2 8.7 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.9

Liquid 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0

Total 5.8 5.6 5.1 5.8 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.1

SEASONALITY OF DOMESTIC MILK

SUPPLIES (BY SECTOR)

13

DOMESTIC SUPPLIES, MANUFACTURING MILK SUPPLIES,

SUPPLIES BY REGISTERED PRODUCERS AND LIQUID MILK

CONSUMPTION (MONTHLY) 2013

*Milk sold for liquid consumption within the State including packaged milk imports.

Source: CSO/NMA

14

DIFFERENTIAL

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

3

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

ROI Liquid

ROI Manu

NI

GB

Liquid Milk Differential over

Manufacturing – 1995-2013

15

Calendar

Years

Prices –

Liquid1

Prices –

Manufacturing1

Price

Differential

c/l c/l c/l

1995 32.84 29.32 3.52

1996 34.07 29.26 4.81

1997 32.85 26.85 6.00

1998 32.31 28.37 3.94

1999 32.20 27.51 4.69

2000 32.09 28.21 3.88

2001 33.26 29.31 3.95

2002 32.70 27.06 5.64

2003 32.26 26.79 5.47

2004 32.26 26.84 5.42

2005 31.00 26.29 4.71

2006 30.51 25.36 5.15

2007 35.28 32.54 2.74

2008 37.58 32.24 5.34

2009 29.17 22.49 6.68

2010 32.44 29.62 2.82

2011 35.51 34.10 1.41

2012 34.10 31.15 2.95

2013

Average

Differential

38.87

33.23

38.07

29.02

0.80

4.21

16

Differential price

6.68 c/l – 0.80 c/l

DIFFERENTIAL

17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Dif

fere

nti

al

Years

All Year Round Contracts and

Pricing Systems

18

Milk Years Contracts Pricing

Systems

%

MMP

%

FLAT

MMP+ FLAT

1995/96

2012/13

3,206

1,769

471

1,524

2,735

245

15

86

85

14

Production level have been maintained

Average MMP and FLAT Prices

19

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Pri

ces

c/l

Year

MMP Prices

Flat Prices

20

Producer Prices –

Payment of Producers –

Types of Contracts

14% FLAT Contracts

86% MMP Contracts

Move to linkage to international price –

constituent based

21

Changing Market Channels

22

Structure of Registered Producers by Processors’

Supply Bands 2013

Milk

Supply

Bands

No. of

Processors

Registered

Producers

Annual Supplies

m. litres No. % m. litres %

0 - 20 10 292 16 49 9

20 - 40 3 382 20 106 23

Over 40 2 1,209 64 300 68

Total 15 1,883 100 455 100

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Structure of Registered Producers by Processors’

Supply Bands 1995 and 2013 Milk

Supply

Bands

No. of

Processors

Registered Producers Annual Supplies

m. litres 2013 1995 2013 1995 2013 1995

No. % No. % m. litres % m.

litres

%

0 - 20 10 12 292 16 1,625 49 49 9 76 15

20 - 40 3 5 382 20 970 29 106 23 127 25

Over 40 2 3 1,209 64 749 22 300 68 294 60

Total 15 20 1,883 100 3,344 100 455 100 497 100

Own Label %

UK - 90%

ROI - 55%

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Processor’s Contribution to the

Sector

R+D

New Products

Building Brands and Maintaining Brand

Loyalty

25

26

2013* 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Tesco 26 27 28 27 26 26 26 25.9 25.9 25.4 23.5 23.7

Dunnes 24 23 23 23 25 24 24 22.1 22.5 22.2 21.0 22.0

SuperValu 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20.5 19.6 19.1 19.0 18.8

Superquinn 5 6 5 7 7 8 8 7.8 8.2 8.9 8.2 8.9

Lidl/Aldi 14 12 12 12 11 10 7 5.9 5.5 5.2 5.7 1.6

Centra 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.9

Spar 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.5

All Others 3 4 4 7 7 8 11 13.2 14.0 13.5 17.1 19.6

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Top 3 multiples 70% Market Share

Increased Concentration

at Retail Level

27

Multiples

Battle of the brands: 55% Private Label

Recent Prices e.g. Tesco

Own Label - €1.49 for 2litres

40 c

(Branded €1.89 2 litres)

Annual Average Retail Milk Prices –

Annual Producer Milk

Prices/Producers’ Share of Retail Milk

28

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 1995

c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l c/l

Retail Prices

- lowfat milk1

- whole milk2

106

105

-

-

111

-

111

-

112

-

111

-

91

-

85

-

85

-

85

-

77

Producer

Prices 3

38.9 34.1 35.5 32.4 29.2 37.6 35.3 30.5 31.0 32.3 32.8

Producer

Price %

Retail4

37% 32% 32% 29% 26% 34% 39% 36% 36% 38% 43%

1CSO – national average retail price of lowfat milk in 1 litre packs (CSO reports on 1 litre pack of low fat milk only since

January 2012). 2 CSO – national average retail price of whole milk in 1 litre packs. 3 NMA – national average producer price of milk for processing for liquid consumption. 4 NMA – Based on the NMA estimate of 94 c/l as the national average retail price for fresh milk the producers’ price as a

percentage of the retail price would be 41% in 2013 compared with 37% in 2012.

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Northern Ireland

Milk Supplies 1993 - 2013 MILK SUPPLIES

m. litres Index

1993 1,309 100

2002 1,764 135

2003 1,772 135

2004 1,776 136

2005 1,865 142

2006 1,902 145

2007 1,918 146

2008 1,902 145

2009 1,772 135

2010 1,850 141

2011 1,977 150

2012 1,995 151

2013 2,008 153

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MARKET PENETRATION OF DOMESTIC LIQUID MILK MARKET

BY IMPORTS 1996-2013

Market Share of Imports 2012 = 26%

2013 = 26%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996

m.

litr

es

Years

Packaged Imports

Bulk Milk Imports

Domestic Supplies

31

NORTHERN IRELAND IMPORTS –

‘13 ’12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09 ‘08 ‘07 ‘06 ‘05 ‘04 ‘03 ‘02 ‘01 ‘00 ‘99 ‘9

8

‘9

7

‘9

6

millions of litres

Bulk

57* 59 65 58 57 63 62 58 55 55 48 42 50 43 44 45 16 0

Packaged

89 86 86 84 78 59 50 46 40 38 41 26 24 23 20 - - 0

Total

Imports

146 145 151 142 135 122 112 104 95 93 89 68 74 66 64 45 16 0

*NMA

Estimated 26% of market

32

Producer Pricing Scheme

Changes

Move to Manufacturing price basis

Rise of international prices

Consumer

Choice

Traceability

33

Consumer Confidence

Fresh

Healthy

Natural

Value Added Product

34

35

LIQUID MILK MARKET - PRODUCT PROFILE 2001-2013

60 62 64 65 67 69 71 73 74 75 76 77 78

40 38

36 35 33

31 29

27 26 25 24 23 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

Per

cen

tag

e

Year

FIG. 2.2 FRESH MILK SALES PRODUCT PROFILE 2001 - 2013

Lowfat & Skimmed

Whole Milk

36

Logo Strategy of NDC

NDC logo milk must be registered with NMA

NMA & NDC

April 2015 – Quota Abolished

37

Choices for Producers

Price Environment

Ability to Expand

Proportion Liquid v Dairy

38

NATIONAL MILK AGENCY

Thank You