the lifecycle of wikipedia - wikimedia · rab – srm presentation - slide 3 the thesis'...

RAB - Wikimedia - sheet 1

The Lifecycle of The Lifecycle of WikipediaWikipedia

WCN (5 November 2011)WCN (5 November 2011)

Ronald Beelaard (rbeelaard AT gmail DOT com)

the source:

Thesis by Felipe Ortega

In the first three months of 2009, the English-language Wikipediasuffered a net loss of more than

49,000 editors, compared to a net loss of 4,900 during the same

period a year earlier …

Trigger: Article in WSJ of 27-11-2009

RAB – SRM presentation - slide 3

The Thesis' Notion of Birth and DeathThe Thesis' Notion of Birth and Death

– From the thesis:

• This definition inevitably leads to huge numbers• An improved analysis uses the concept of "Active Users"

– A user has to exceed a certain threshold before he is marked "active"


Definitions used in improved AnalysisDefinitions used in improved Analysis

• Content Pages– Ignore all Talk pages and Wikipedia:xxx pages

• PageEdits– Unique pages edited by a user in a calendar month

• OneEdit (template) - Edit wars – Single issue editors

• Active user– Has made > 5 PageEdits/month in 3 consecutive months

• Allowance for e.g. holiday break

• Birth and Death– Birth: unambiguously– Death: could be temporarily (wikibreak)

• WikiAge / WikiExperience– Months or PageEdits since first edit


The flaw in the WSJ articleThe flaw in the WSJ article

• After an analysis of enwiki

– The WSJ article quote:• In the first three months of 2009, the English-language Wikipedia

suffered a net loss of more than 49,000 editors, compared to a net loss of 4,900 during the same period a year earlier …

– should have read:

• … suffered a loss of 2,900 editors, compared to 3,400 (-17%) during the same period a year earlier,however it succeeded to attract only 2,700 new editors in Q1 2009, compared to 3,300 in Q1 2008, which is a reduction of 15% …


Reliability / AccuracyReliability / Accuracy

• It takes 3/4 months to determine if a new user can be regarded "active"• Death or wikibreak can be determined after 2 consecutive months of

insufficient activity.

Month in case of sep-11 dump fe

b-10

mrt-

10

apr-

10

mei

-10

jun-

10

jul-1

0

aug-

10

sep-

10

okt-1

0

nov-

10

dec-

10

jan-

11

feb-

11

mrt-

11

apr-

11

mei

-11

jun-

11

jul-1

1

aug-

11

sep-

11

Month -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0| | | | | || | | | | └ Database dump (data of this month not complete)| | | | || | | | └ Reliable data for chart 1 & 2, except for| | | | potential active users born in month -3 or -4| | | || | | └ Most newly born users are known| | └ All newly born users are known| | └ All data related to active users are accurate,| | i.e. births, rebirths and the sum of deaths and wikibreaks| |└ ── ── ── ── ── └ Used for rollback analysis in order to estimate deaths,

that will turn out wikibreaks when newer data becomes available

Reliability/Accuracy of data


(Re)Births of active Users(Re)Births of active Users

Births and Rebirths of Users active on Content Pages

0

20

40

60

80

100

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-

08

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-

09

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-

10

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-

11

# of

use

rs

RebirthsBirths (new users)


Deaths and WikiBreaks of Users active on Content Pages

0

20

40

60

80

100

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

# of

use

rs

WikiBreaks (certain)Deaths (raw data)

Active Users Active Users (temporarily or definitely)(temporarily or definitely)leaving the Projectleaving the Project


Active Users Active Users (temporarily or definitely)(temporarily or definitely)leaving the Projectleaving the Project

(Forecasted) Deaths and WikiBreaks

0

20

40

60

80

100

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-

08

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-

09

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-

10

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-

11

Dea

ths

& W

ikiB

reak

s (b

ars)

WikiBreaks (certain)WikiBreaks (forecast)Deaths (forecast)


"Birth Surplus" started to decline in 2007"Birth Surplus" started to decline in 2007and is negative since 2008and is negative since 2008

Birth Surplus as difference between Births and (forecasted) Deaths

-20

0

20

40

60

80

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-

08

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-

09

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-

10

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-

11

# of

use

rs

Birth surplusBirths (new users)Deaths (forecast)


Birth Surplus for Birth Surplus for ENwikiENwiki

Birth Surplus as difference between Births and (forecasted) Deaths

-500

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-

08

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-

09

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-

10

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-

11

# of

use

rs

Birth surplusBirths (new users)Deaths (forecast)


Comparison of "Birth Surpluses"Comparison of "Birth Surpluses"

Comparison of relative Birth Surpluses (MAT*)

-2,5%

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

Birt

h Su

rplu

s as

% o

f # o

f Act

ive

Use

rs

ENwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwiki

* Moving Annual Total

Comparison of relative Birth Surpluses (MAT*)

-2,5%

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

Birt

h Su

rplu

s as

% o

f # o

f Act

ive

Use

rs

ENwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwikiRUwikiZHwiki



Decline of Birth Surpluses is caused by Decline of Birth Surpluses is caused by dropping Influx of new Usersdropping Influx of new Users

Comparison of relative (new) Births (MAT*)

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

17,5%

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

New

Birt

hs a

s %

of #

of A

ctiv

e U

sers

ENwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwiki


Comparison of relative (new) Births (MAT*)

0,0%

2,5%

5,0%

7,5%

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

17,5%

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

New

Birt

hs a

s %

of #

of A

ctiv

e U

sers

ENwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwikiRUwikiZHwiki



From 2007/08 the pool of active and From 2007/08 the pool of active and sleeping users is steadily decliningsleeping users is steadily declining

Active and Sleeping Users

0

200

400

600

800

1,0k

1,2k

jan-

05

apr-

05

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-

06

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-

07

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-

08

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-

09

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-

10

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-

11

# of

use

rs

Assumed sleeping usersSleeping usersActive users


Mortality Mortality (for comparable (for comparable WikiAgesWikiAges))increases over the Yearsincreases over the Years

Mortality (Death or WikiBreak) depending on Year of Birth

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

Months after (first) birth

Prob

abili

ty to

die

or t

o ta

ke a

Wik

iBre

ak

Born in 2010 (358)Born in 2009 (402)Born in 2008 (468)Born in 2007 (670)Born in 2006 (741)Born before 2006 (791)

Between brackets: initial population


Demographic Development Demographic Development (population NL)(population NL)

1950

15% 10% 5% 5% 10% 15%

0 tot 5 jaar

5 tot 10 jaar

10 tot 15 jaar

15 tot 20 jaar

20 tot 25 jaar

25 tot 30 jaar

30 tot 35 jaar

35 tot 40 jaar

40 tot 45 jaar

45 tot 50 jaar

50 tot 55 jaar

55 tot 60 jaar

60 tot 65 jaar

65 tot 70 jaar

70 tot 75 jaar

75 tot 80 jaar

80 tot 85 jaar

85 tot 90 jaar

90 tot 95 jaar

95 jaar of ouder

Vrouwen Mannen

n = 10,0M


Demographic Development Demographic Development ((WikipediaWikipedia))

% PageEdits= indicator

for vitality

% of the active users


Conclusions related to Trends Conclusions related to Trends in in Wikipedia Wikipedia CommunityCommunity

• The (relative) outflow of active users is pretty constant

• The inflow of new active users is steadily declining

• The life expectancy of new users is decreasing• The ageing of the community is increasing,

while the community is shrinking, but the vitality of the seniors is enhancing.

• These trends seem very much related to the lifecycle (stage) the project is in.

The well known 7 years !!


Recommendations ??!!Recommendations ??!!

Better user interface ?Friendlier welcome to new users ?

Better user interface ?Friendlier welcome to new users ?

Prepare for a consolidation strategyor

Invent new project challenges

RAB - Wikimedia - sheet 20

Some other Trends and FindingsSome other Trends and Findings


New Article Initiation (first edit) depending on User Type and Page Type

747k

0

200k

400k

600k

800k

1,0M

1,2M

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

jul-1

1

Cum

ulat

ive

# of

arti

cles

Redirect (anybody)Ambiguation page (anybody)Article by botArticle by anon (IP)Article by occasional userArticle by active user


520k

700k747k

0

200k

400k

600k

800k

1,0M

1,2M

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

jul-1

1

Cum

ulat

ive

# of

arti

cles



520k

700k747k

0

200k

400k

600k

800k

1,0M

1,2M

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

jul-1

1

Cum

ulat

ive

# of

arti

cles



520k

700k747k

0

200k

400k

600k

800k

1,0M

1,2M

jan-

05

apr-0

5

jul-0

5

okt-0

5

jan-

06

apr-0

6

jul-0

6

okt-0

6

jan-

07

apr-0

7

jul-0

7

okt-0

7

jan-

08

apr-0

8

jul-0

8

okt-0

8

jan-

09

apr-0

9

jul-0

9

okt-0

9

jan-

10

apr-1

0

jul-1

0

okt-1

0

jan-

11

apr-1

1

jul-1

1

Cum

ulat

ive

# of

arti

cles


WikipediaWikipedia GrowthGrowth


Comparison of new Article InitiationComparison of new Article Initiation

Comparison ofNew Article Initiation (first edit) depending on User Type and Page Type

135%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Enwiki DEwiki FRwiki NLwiki

Shar

e of

Arti

cles

Ambiguation page (anybody)Article by botArticle by anon (IP)Article by occasional userArticle by active user

Redirect as % of articles

Comparison ofNew Article Initiation (first edit) depending on User Type and Page Type

110%

135%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Enwiki DEwiki FRwiki NLwiki Ruwiki Zhwiki

Shar

e of

Arti

cles

Ambiguation page (anybody)Article by botArticle by anon (IP)Article by occasional userArticle by active user

Redirect as % of articles


Frequency Distribution of Frequency Distribution of Number of unique Editors per ArticleNumber of unique Editors per Article

Unique Editors per Article* depending on Year of Article Creation

10k

20k

30k

40k

1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-32 33-64 65-128 129-256 257-512 >512

Unique editors (incl. bots)

# of

Arti

cles

<=2005200620072008200920102011

Articles created by humans (no bots)Excl. redirects and ambiguation pagesn = 520k

*


Frequency Distribution ofFrequency Distribution ofNumber of unique Editors per Article Number of unique Editors per Article (2)(2)

Unique Editors per Article* depending on Year of Article Creation

10k

20k

30k

40k

1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-32 33-64 65-128 129-256 257-512 >512

Unique editors (excl. bots)

# of

Arti

cles

<=2005200620072008200920102011

Articles created by humans (no bots)Excl. redirects and ambiguation pagesn = 520k

*


Comparison of Maturity of a randomly picked Article

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 << Immature 12 50 Mature >> 500

Maturity Index

% o

f all

artic

les

EnwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwikiRuwikiZhwiki

How accurate is a random chosen ArticleHow accurate is a random chosen Article

50% of the articles has been edited by 10 or more different people

Comparison of Maturity of a randomly picked Article

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 << Immature 12 50 Mature >> 500

Maturity Index

% o

f all

artic

les

EnwikiDEwikiFRwikiNLwikiRuwikiZhwiki

the lifecycle of wikipedia - wikimedia · rab – srm presentation - slide 3 the thesis'...

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