the latest products and tools provided by jma
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The latest products and tools provided by JMA. Kenji KISHIMOTO National Typhoon Center JMA. Major points of this presentation. JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The latest products and tools The latest products and tools provided by JMA provided by JMA
Kenji KISHIMOTO Kenji KISHIMOTO National Typhoon Center National Typhoon Center JMA JMA
On 22 April 2009, JMA started the operations On 22 April 2009, JMA started the operations for 5-day tropical cyclone track forecast.for 5-day tropical cyclone track forecast.
Since 22 April, JMA, as RSMC Tokyo, has Since 22 April, JMA, as RSMC Tokyo, has improved the following products and tools for improved the following products and tools for the Typhoon Committee Members. the Typhoon Committee Members.
Major points of this presentation
- Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site- Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site - RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website- RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website- RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory- RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory- RSMC Guidance for Forecast- RSMC Guidance for Forecast
JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone.analysis of tropical cyclone.
Real-time JMA products and tools for TC operations
Operational forecastOperational forecast
RSMC TC AdvisoryRSMC TC Advisory-for 3-day forecast-for 3-day forecast
(WTPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) (WTPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC TC AdvisoryRSMC TC Advisory-for 5-day track forecast-for 5-day track forecast
(WTPQ50-55 RJTD: via GTS)(WTPQ50-55 RJTD: via GTS)Prognostic reasoningPrognostic reasoning(WTPQ30-35 RJTD: via GTS)(WTPQ30-35 RJTD: via GTS)
RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center WebsiteRSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website-for 3-day forecast & 5-day track forecast-for 3-day forecast & 5-day track forecast
(open)(open)
Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
RSMC Guidance for ForecastRSMC Guidance for Forecast-TC prediction of JMA/GSM -TC prediction of JMA/GSM -TC prediction of JMA/Typhoon EPS -TC prediction of JMA/Typhoon EPS
(FXPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS)(FXPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS)
Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web SiteNumerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site-TC prediction of major NWP centers in the world-TC prediction of major NWP centers in the world
(for registered users)(for registered users)
JMA EPS-WEBJMA EPS-WEB-JMA one-week EPS products-JMA one-week EPS products
(for registered users)(for registered users)
RSMC Data Serving SystemRSMC Data Serving System-GPV data of global atmosphere, global wave-GPV data of global atmosphere, global wave
(for registered users)(for registered users)
Observation & analysisObservation & analysis
SAREPSAREP-tropical cyclone (TC) satellite image analysis-tropical cyclone (TC) satellite image analysis
(TCNA20/21 RJTD, IUCC10 RJTD: via GTS)(TCNA20/21 RJTD, IUCC10 RJTD: via GTS)
RSMC Data Serving SystemRSMC Data Serving System––surface, upper air, atmospheric motion vectorsurface, upper air, atmospheric motion vector
(for registered users)(for registered users)
GMSLPDGMSLPD-satellite image analysis tool-satellite image analysis tool
Komori-san’s lecture
Its detail and demo Tanaka-san’s lecture
GMSLPD (GMS image viewer for Dvorak analysis)
GMSLPD is a viewer program for satellite image analysis of GMSLPD is a viewer program for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone.tropical cyclone.
JMA provides not only GMSLPD but also satellite images JMA provides not only GMSLPD but also satellite images and NWP data for GMSLPD.and NWP data for GMSLPD.
Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site
(1) JMA Typhoon EPS (TEPS) track up to the next 132 hours on (1) JMA Typhoon EPS (TEPS) track up to the next 132 hours on ““Track Track PredictionPrediction”” page page
(TEPS track up to the next 84 hours before 22 April 2009)(TEPS track up to the next 84 hours before 22 April 2009)
Extension of TEPS track from the next 84
to 132hr
Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site
(2) Addition of (2) Addition of ““JMA Ensemble PredictionJMA Ensemble Prediction”” page page
Ensemble mean track
Member track
Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site
(3) Addition of (3) Addition of ““Dvorak analysisDvorak analysis”” page (by this summer) page (by this summer)
This page will show the estimation of cloud systems using This page will show the estimation of cloud systems using the conventional Dvorak analysisthe conventional Dvorak analysis and and Early stage Dvorak analysis (EDA)Early stage Dvorak analysis (EDA)..
Dvorak analysis
SAREP shows the estimation of SAREP shows the estimation of conventional Dvorak analysis.conventional Dvorak analysis.
Identification number
ofcloud system
Center position of cloud system
Intensity of cloud system
Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site
Links to model
information of the organizations
participating in the Web Site
Other useful pages (same as before) Other useful pages (same as before)
Please contact the RSMC Tokyo (Please contact the RSMC Tokyo ([email protected]), if you are interested in the Web Site.
RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website
Addition of Addition of ““5-Day Track Forecast5-Day Track Forecast”” page page
RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website
JMA website (English version) http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.htmlJMA website (English version) http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm
Latest RSMC tropical cyclone advisoryUseful archive Best track (1951-2008) Annual Report (2000-2007) Technical Review (No.1-11)
New RSMC products through GTS
WTPQ50 RJTD 030000RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORYNAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TDANALYSISPSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4E POORMOVE NNE SLOWLYPRES 998HPAMXWD 035KTGUST 050KT30KT 120NMFORECAST24HF 040000UTC 14.8N 127.2E 85NM 70%MOVE ENE 07KTPRES 990HPAMXWD 045KTGUST 065KT48HF 050000UTC 16.3N 131.6E 180NM 70%MOVE ENE 11KTPRES 980HPAMXWD 055KTGUST 080KT72HF 060000UTC 18.8N 136.6E 250NM 70%MOVE ENE 13KTPRES 975HPAMXWD 060KTGUST 085KT96HF 070000UTC 22.7N 141.1E 280NM 70%MOVE NE 14KT120HF 080000UTC 28.8N 147.0E 375NM 70%MOVE NE 20KT =
FXPQ20 RJTD 030000FXPQ20 RJTD 030000RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECASTRSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECASTNAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901)NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901)PSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4EPSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4EPRES 998HPAPRES 998HPAMXWD 35KTMXWD 35KTFORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMFORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMTIME PSTN PRES MXWDTIME PSTN PRES MXWD (CHANGE FROM T=0)(CHANGE FROM T=0)T=006 14.4N 124.3E -002HPA -009KTT=006 14.4N 124.3E -002HPA -009KTT=012 14.4N 124.6E 000HPA -006KTT=012 14.4N 124.6E 000HPA -006KTT=018 14.6N 125.4E -001HPA -007KTT=018 14.6N 125.4E -001HPA -007KTT=024 14.7N 126.3E +001HPA -008KTT=024 14.7N 126.3E +001HPA -008KTT=030 15.0N 127.5E -002HPA -009KTT=030 15.0N 127.5E -002HPA -009KTT=036 15.3N 128.5E 000HPA -010KTT=036 15.3N 128.5E 000HPA -010KTT=042 15.5N 129.4E -002HPA -010KTT=042 15.5N 129.4E -002HPA -010KTT=048 15.6N 130.4E 000HPA -010KTT=048 15.6N 130.4E 000HPA -010KTT=054 15.7N 131.4E -002HPA -010KTT=054 15.7N 131.4E -002HPA -010KTT=060 15.8N 132.5E 000HPA -010KTT=060 15.8N 132.5E 000HPA -010KTT=066 16.1N 133.3E -003HPA -010KTT=066 16.1N 133.3E -003HPA -010KTT=072 16.5N 134.2E -001HPA -009KTT=072 16.5N 134.2E -001HPA -009KTT=078 17.1N 135.1E -003HPA -008KTT=078 17.1N 135.1E -003HPA -008KTT=084 17.8N 136.0E -002HPA -008KTT=084 17.8N 136.0E -002HPA -008KTT=090 18.8N 137.0E -004HPA -006KTT=090 18.8N 137.0E -004HPA -006KTT=096 19.9N 138.0E -002HPA -005KTT=096 19.9N 138.0E -002HPA -005KTT=102 21.2N 139.3E -004HPA -005KTT=102 21.2N 139.3E -004HPA -005KTT=108 22.6N 140.8E -002HPA -004KTT=108 22.6N 140.8E -002HPA -004KTT=114 24.3N 142.4E -004HPA -003KTT=114 24.3N 142.4E -004HPA -003KTT=120 26.1N 144.3E -003HPA -002KTT=120 26.1N 144.3E -003HPA -002KTT=126 27.8N 146.5E -005HPA -001KTT=126 27.8N 146.5E -005HPA -001KTT=132 29.3N 148.6E -003HPA -002KT=T=132 29.3N 148.6E -003HPA -002KT=
RSMC TC advisory for 5-day track forecast RSMC TC advisory for 5-day track forecast (operational forecast) (operational forecast) WTPQ50-55WTPQ50-55
RSMC Guidance for forecast RSMC Guidance for forecast (NWP data) (NWP data) FXPQ20-25FXPQ20-25
JMA 5-day track forecast
4 times/day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC)
3-day track & intensity forecast
5-day track
forecast
It is expected to hold TS intensity or higher in the next 3 days.
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Over 50kt-wind probability area
Over 30kt-wind area
Over 50kt-wind area
70% probability circle
issued about 50 minutes
after the hour
issued about 90 minutes
after the hour
70% probability circle
JMA 5-day track forecast
A circle radius is decided based A circle radius is decided based on an ensemble spread. on an ensemble spread.
― ensemble mean
― GSM
A circle center is put A circle center is put based on an ensemble based on an ensemble
mean position.mean position.
― ensemble mean
― GSM
JMA mainly uses Typhoon EPS for 5-day track forecast. JMA mainly uses Typhoon EPS for 5-day track forecast. A probability circle is deployed in ensemble forecast A probability circle is deployed in ensemble forecast approach.approach.
Feature of JMA 5-day track forecast
1. 1. The radius of a probability circleThe radius of a probability circle
changes changes
depending on the uncertainty of forecast depending on the uncertainty of forecast
which is shown mainly by the latest Typhoon EPS data.which is shown mainly by the latest Typhoon EPS data.
2. 2. The center of a probability circleThe center of a probability circle
is not so important.is not so important.
JMA 5-day track forecast
TEPS
Group A Group B Group C
Our verification result say that Our verification result say that the radius of 70% probability circle the radius of 70% probability circle enlarges in proportion to ensemble spread (forecast uncertainty). enlarges in proportion to ensemble spread (forecast uncertainty).
This distance includes 70% of forecast cases (center positions) in Group C.
(2007-2008)
JMA 5-day track forecast
The center of probability circleThe center of probability circle just means the center of just means the center of forecast uncertainty area. forecast uncertainty area.
Green line with squares: Green line with squares: ensemble mean ensemble mean tracktrack
Line with circles: Line with circles: each member track each member track
If TEPS members separate If TEPS members separate into 2 courses clearly, into 2 courses clearly, ensemble mean track is low ensemble mean track is low probability.probability.
How to use JMA 5-day track forecast
Probability circles indicate Probability circles indicate potential tracks up to the next 5 dayspotential tracks up to the next 5 days. . We should consider We should consider all potential tracks within a circleall potential tracks within a circle.. TheThe track through circle centerstrack through circle centers is just one of potential is just one of potential tracks. tracks.
Examples of 5-day track forecast
Best track of Jangmi (0815)Best track of Jangmi (0815)
[Circle] 6 hourly position[Circle with number] Position at 00UTC Number: Day[TC grade] TY STS TS
24 24 Sep.Sep.
01 01 Oct.Oct.
1st case (26/06UTC)
2nd case (26/18UTC)
3rd case (27/06UTC)
Forecast experiment
ANAL
DAY1
DAY2
DAY3
DAY5
DAY4
Examples of 5-day track forecast
The circle indicates that the there is fair possibility for Jangmi to make landfall in China.
1st case
ANAL
DAY1
DAY2
DAY3
DAY5
DAY4
Examples of 5-day track forecast
The enlarged circle indicates that forecast uncertainty increased than the previous forecast (1st case).(suggestion: potential for both recurving and moving westward)
Little change of a circle center compared to the previous forecast.
2nd case
ANAL
DAY1
DAY2
DAY3
DAY4
DAY5
Examples of 5-day track forecast
The shrunk circle indicates that forecast uncertainty decreased than the previous forecast (2nd case).(suggestion: higher possibility of recurving and less possibility of moving westward)
3rd case
Summary of my presentation
I hope our products and tools will contribute to the I hope our products and tools will contribute to the typhoon monitoring activities of your organizations. typhoon monitoring activities of your organizations.
Thanks!!Thanks!!